He hasn't screwed up yet, which is actually praise b/c when he came in there was pressure to win now from Scott, and the only assets he traded were a 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th, and got the 2nd back in the draft by resisting the pressure to draft Caufield. Hayes was the only big signing, and while not great, he was market value (i.e. one year and one million a year more than he was worth, that's free agency, but they didn't go after Duchene, thank God).
Now he has a real challenge, the team and organization has to be rebuilt from the ground up. Fletcher was right not to try to do this at first, but find out what he has, and he's found out.
Note that there seems to be a change in scouting, Fletcher definitely focused more on intangibles this draft, trading up for both Wisdom and Desnoyers. He brought in Niskanen and Braun to help the clubhouse at the NHL level. Even Gus, while not worth signing, turned out to be more willing to work on his game than I expected (he's too focused on not making mistakes but he's trying). Pitlick was more of a loss than I expected.
Fletcher has to fire Gordon and bring in a top young AHL HC and start the culture change there.
AV is tougher b/c that's Scott's decision (i.e. eat $15M).
Trades will be about re-balancing this team, there's a lot of young talent coming up, Fletcher's job will be to ensure the right talent that fits together both on the ice and in the clubhouse.
We'll be able to make a much better judgement by August, but we really won't know until May 2022.