Prospect Info: Do we overvalue our prospects?

[Gabriel426]

Honestly, I don't think any Leafs fans really thought the Leafs are contender in the beginning of the season. Dougie era were great but it was more what the team were doing that we thought, we might have a chance than coming into the season and proclaiming Cup Finals or failure. The Quinn's team was good but as someone said, at least I looked at it as last run for vets more than true contenders, think Col, Det, And NJ were the contenders.
Still remembered how one TDL, when Leafs got Leetch, Francis, Dougie, Housley and someone else, and my friends were saying Leafs might just make it this year. I just told him, if only the Leafs got those players 10 yrs ago.

 

[cujoflutie]

Honestly, I don't think any Leafs fans really thought the Leafs are contender in the beginning of the season. Dougie era were great but it was more what the team were doing that we thought, we might have a chance than coming into the season and proclaiming Cup Finals or failure. The Quinn's team was good but as someone said, at least I looked at it as last run for vets more than true contenders, think Col, Det, And NJ were the contenders.
Still remembered how one TDL, when Leafs got Leetch, Francis, Dougie, Housley and someone else, and my friends were saying Leafs might just make it this year. I just told him, if only the Leafs got those players 10 yrs ago.

Small correction; Housley and Gilmour were 2003, Leetch and Francis were 2004. Those were the closest they came to contenders but both teams ran into injuries.

Quinn put some good teams together but most leaf fans knew the defense was far too weak to contend for a cup. Joseph was great but he was winning games single handedly in a manner Brodeur, Roy, and Hasek didn't have to on the cup teams they were on. Look at some of the horses on defense those guys had in front of them- Stevens, Niedermayer, Blake, Foote, Lidstrom, Chelios. The leafs never had anyone like that on defense.

 

[buttman*]

"Now hold on, Lois! A boat's a boat, but the Mystery Box could be anything! It could even be a boat!"

^
HF reasoning in a nutshell.

Post of the year!

 

[nsleaf]

Most definitely but all fan bases do. Shortly after the draft lottery l got the sense on HF Leafs that Matthews was an even better prospect than before the lottery just because the Leafs can have him if they want.

 

[Canada4Gold]

I called Travis Dermott an "expendable B prospect" a while ago on the trade board. I then got attacked by Leafs fans saying "not available in trade talks" and "future top 4 D" and stuff like that. Let's not pretend this guy can't be moved.

He's certainly not a surefire anything, but that doesn't make him expendable because he's probably our best D prospect.

He might be on the same level as someone like Johnson, Leipsic, or somewhere inbetween. 2 of those guys might be expendable but you just just throw your best D prospect in a trade.

expendable is decent assets in places of strength, if you trade you won't overly miss because you have lots of similar/better prospects in that area. Trading your best D prospect doesn't fit this criteria.

The people who responded to you(I don't think it was me, I can't remember that anyway) was probably thinking more along these lines than the, we can't trade a future anchor of our 2nd pairing kind of thinking which would fall into the category of overating a prospect, or more specificially, overrating their likelyhood of reaching their potential.

 

[The CyNick]

We are fans. Not GM's.

Our future projections don't have to be realistic based on random %'s.

Of course, and people can say what they want. But its hard to speak logically to a person who thinks we will go 6 for 7 every year in the draft. The real number is closer to 1 or 2 out of 7.

 

[cupcrazyman]

I think Nonis & Burke over valued just about everyone when they were here.

 

[Mansfield]

Fans of every team do this. The reason we have this reputation on HF is simply because of volume.

 

[moon111]

Not just prospects, but I find the fans over-value offensive production over someone who can win face-offs, kill penalties, shut down opposition, make few mistakes.

 

[Gabriel426]

Small correction; Housley and Gilmour were 2003, Leetch and Francis were 2004. Those were the closest they came to contenders but both teams ran into injuries.

Quinn put some good teams together but most leaf fans knew the defense was far too weak to contend for a cup. Joseph was great but he was winning games single handedly in a manner Brodeur, Roy, and Hasek didn't have to on the cup teams they were on. Look at some of the horses on defense those guys had in front of them- Stevens, Niedermayer, Blake, Foote, Lidstrom, Chelios. The leafs never had anyone like that on defense.

Memories ain't what it used to. But yeah, those Leafs lacked something and can't really be consider contender.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Usually yes but when you have a group that features Mathews Nylander Marner and Kapanen I don't think that's possible that's by FAR the best prospect pool in the league

 

[Pookie]

There is no better fan base.

I don't think there is widespread overvaluing of prospects.

However, we aren't honest if we don't acknowledge that once a player does crack the NHL and has success, this sports culture puts HUGE expectations on them. In some cases that are impossible to live up to.

Some of that is fan driven. A larger percentage is media driven looking to fill the "news" vacuum. I'd say that the marketing machine that is MLSE fuels that too.

The city is hungry for a superstar. And unfortunately tries to find one wherever.

If a player struggles living up to
those inflated expectations this fan and media base will turn on them quickly.

 

[Bobs your uncle]

Unquestionably and because the Leaf fan base is probably the largest they tend to annoy other fan bases more. Every teams fans are guilty of overvaluing their team.

 

[hobarth]

I haven't heard of anyone comparing Dermott to any current NHL players, I've seen fans already pencilling him in as top 4 potential and I really don't know why. Dermott is 5'11" 207 lbs, I've heard he's responsible but a subpar skater. His offensive totals are good for an OHL player but not outstanding. Everything about this guy reminds me of Matt Finn, Finn was taller, 6'1", and around the same weight. Their offensive totals in the OHL are very similar and Finn was also considered responsible but his foot speed wasn't good, so time will tell.

 

[TML Dynasty]

LOL of course we do!

Our top prospects are legit no question.....but it's the guys after them that may fall into this category. Especially if your main proof is the end of last season. Ive seen a fair bit of emphasis being put on the fact that there was very little pressure in games that meant very little and thus not a fair platform to judge our prospects.

But even so I think we have the top group of prospects in the league.....maybe an argument for Winnipeg but I still say Leafs!

 

[The CyNick]

I haven't heard of anyone comparing Dermott to any current NHL players, I've seen fans already pencilling him in as top 4 potential and I really don't know why. Dermott is 5'11" 207 lbs, I've heard he's responsible but a subpar skater. His offensive totals are good for an OHL player but not outstanding. Everything about this guy reminds me of Matt Finn, Finn was taller, 6'1", and around the same weight. Their offensive totals in the OHL are very similar and Finn was also considered responsible but his foot speed wasn't good, so time will tell.

Seen him live a bunch of times. I like his game, a lot actually, but even with that, I dont think he's close to being a lock to make the show, let alone being a top 4.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Seen him live a bunch of times. I like his game, a lot actually, but even with that, I dont think he's close to being a lock to make the show, let alone being a top 4.

Sure, he's got a long way to go. But that's more a commentary about prospect development than about Dermott. Extremely few prospects are locks to be top 6/4.

 

[hobarth]

Sure, he's got a long way to go. But that's more a commentary about prospect development than about Dermott. Extremely few prospects are locks to be top 6/4.

I understand what you're saying but usually top prospects are locks to become top 6/4.

It's actually unusual for top 6/4 players to need true development time in the minors.

For instance, I doubt many other NHL teams would have forced Nylander to endure the AHL this last year, Nylander is a projected top 6 forward and the only reason he spent the majority of the year in the AHL is because TO for some odd reason wanted him to stay there. This was more an anomaly than the rule as even develop first teams such as Detroit are graduating players without AHL time, like with Larkin.

Rielly had and still has a long way to go but Babs is developing him in the NHL where he belongs, developing in the NHL is far more valuable than developing in the AHL, if you have an NHL player with obvious NHL talent attempting to develop him anywhere other than where he belongs is a waste.

 

[HellasLEAF]

I will say, that now that we have actual blue chippers in our system, it may be the case that we overvalued them in the passed.

I don't think that's the case anymore. Our prospects are earning their tire pumps now

 

[hobarth]

I will say, that now that we have actual blue chippers in our system, it may be the case that we overvalued them in the passed.

I don't think that's the case anymore. Our prospects are earning their tire pumps now

Nylander is in the system, a blue chipper, he plays with the Marlies, who else is a blue chipper in the Leaf's system. Marner plays for London.

 

[RoyalGremlin]

I was sure Kadri would hit 100 points by now, just like I'm sure Matthews can hit 120 one day with Marner.

 

[Menzinger]

I understand what you're saying but usually top prospects are locks to become top 6/4.

It's actually unusual for top 6/4 players to need true development time in the minors.

Bluechip guys usually need minimal development time - but plenty of top four/six NHLers needed a year or two to sort things out in the minors. Few would call Dermott a bluechip but I see no reason so far that indicates he doesn't at least hold the potential to be a top four guy.

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

I think Nonis & Burke over valued just about everyone when they were here.

The person Burke over valued the most was himself, and then if he hired an executive, coach or player, they could do no wrong, after all the smartest person in the world....ever Brian Burke hired them.

Burke, great gig to fool the idiot owners of MLG at the time. Burke got his money, but as a hockey executive....very poor and took a poorly run franchise down to greater despair.

But I really blame the owners.

 

[darrylsittler27]

Most fanbases do.

Take Edmonton, I lived there. They can't make a trade because they want a lot for guys who haven't done much. Yakupov already asked for a trade at the begining of the year. Kadri was a star the minute Burke took him. Sometimes guys overachieve or come out of nowhere. The fans all cheer on their guy hoping he can let them say "Ah ha,see I told so!!!!"

They are comparing Mathews to Toews, works for me because we already have Marner(Kane).