Prospect Info: Do we overvalue our prospects?

[666]

Every fan base overvalues their prospects but the problem with Leaf Nation is that there are so many of us. A small but vocal minority is still a ton of people. For example there were threads in the past predicting Wellwood would be a 100 point guy etc. Anywhere else a stupid thread like that would die a quick death but around here with so many people any thread even the dumbest can go on for pages and last days.

Also there are a huge number of homers in Leaf Nation. They are very vocal because well, they are homers, that's what they do. Online it can be obnoxious.

The other side of the coin is that there are a huge number of people who hate the Leafs for stupid reasons. We have sucked for decades but the hate continues so that just motivate the homers to be a bit more obnoxious and the cycle continues.

 

[Christ]

Every fan base overvalues their prospects, nothing unique about Toronto fans in this. Heck we undervalue some of the less "sexy" prospects as well.

 

[Menzinger]

No more than another team's fanbase.

Fans by their nature will be optimistic an see the "max potential" in every prospect they see.

Some of this is clearly justified though - ie a guy like Nylander has every indicator that he's goingo develop into a first line talent.

 

[Canada4Gold]

everybody does to some extent.

That being said your example, Kapanen, and Connor Brown absolutely have NHL upside. Top 6 upside.

Sosh/Hyman/Johnson too have NHL upside. Middle 6 probably, Hyman I'm thinking maybe a great 4th liner.

Harrington idk, if he ever makes it he's a bottom pairing guy IMO, I don't really care for him much.

The goalies will be lucky being career backups

Piccinicch I'm not sure if we'll even bother signing him, who knows. I don't think he has much upside.

yes we have probably 20 guys with NHL ceiling. Some of them will bust. That doesn't mean we're overvaluing them in saying they have NHL upside.

Fans always get hopeful for a players absolute upside. You never see anyone saying I can't wait until Brown is a 4th liner for us, or when Harrington is a career AHLer, or when Timashov busts. People post things looking towards that maximum a player can be.

 

[Ropesman]

I would have to say that yes our fan base does over hype our middle of the road prospects. I don't think that our top prospects have been over hyped for the most part. Nylander, Marner, and soon to be Matthews are all world class talents and we should be damn proud that they are in the blue and white.

However its guys like Sosh, Hyman, Valiev, Leipsic, etc. that I believe tend to be over-rated by many. That is not to say I don't think these guys could turn out to be quality players and do great things for the leafs one day. I just believe we have not seen enough of a sample size to come to some of the conclusions that many people do. 15-20 game sample sizes are just not enough to determine what these players will do for years to come.

Ill say it again though, I am not saying any of these kids are not decent prospects or that they are sure to bust. I just am of the opinion that conclusions are jumped to rather quickly. As many have already said though it happens in all fan bases.

 

[Josh92]

We do and we don't. For example, Mathews, nylander and Marner are that good, so we don't over rate them. But then there's a lot of people who say "this guy has top 6 potential" that was a 7th round pick and will probably never play in the NHL. Just leafs nation being overly optimistic sometimes. Nothing wrong with being hopeful, just the way it is.

 

[The CyNick]

To OP:

I dont, but others on here do.

 

[Canada4Gold]

We do and we don't. For example, Mathews, nylander and Marner are that good, so we don't over rate them. But then there's a lot of people who say "this guy has top 6 potential" that was a 7th round pick and will probably never play in the NHL. Just leafs nation being overly optimistic sometimes. Nothing wrong with being hopeful, just the way it is.

There's a difference between saying someone like Korostelev has top 6 potential when it's very very likely he will not reach that level compared to a player like Connor Brown who lead the OHL in points 1 year, and was the rookie AHL leader the following year. Or a player like Johnson who was a very big part of Sweden's team at the WJC and is one of the best young players in the SHL. I think he's the leading U24 player as a 21 year old. Or at least he was not that long ago when I checked.

I'd say the same for a player like Kirill Kaprizov who was a Minnesota 5th rounder this past year. What he's done in the KHL this year is very impressive, and I think Minnesota should be very excited about him too.

A lot of players have top 6 potential, even the late drafted ones, but many of those it's just potential and you'd be stupid to get excited about them or plugging them into future lineups when it will be very likely they never come close to reaching it. However players who are 2 or 3 years post draft, and have excelled every year, then draft status doesn't really mean anything anymore.

 

[Gabriel426]

I think you can't put a tag on a 4th rounder as a bust. Heck I think only 10% or something 2nd rounder will make the NHL, too lazy to look that up.

Point is, all prospects are still prospects until they make it to the NHL. You really can't say someone with potential to be a top liner and end up being a top 9 as a bust unless that player is taken in the Top 5.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

I don't see it much other than in technical ways. I say that Marner will have a better career than Eichel! Thats debatable by who ever might not agree but its frigging possible.

I don't think so really. Its a pretty smart fanbase on here for the most part. **** gets discussed and we all learn things from each other.

Nothing to it!

 

[AvroArrow]

No, the rest of the nhl has a hard time accepting the leafs are finally on the right path and have the strongest prospect pool in the league. Marner won the OHL mvp, absolutely destroyed the league and dominated Dylan Strome in the playoffs. That's not us over valuing him, it's a fact. Connor Brown has been elite in the AHL and also won the OHL mvp award a couple years back. Nylander destroyed the AHL and played very well in the WJC as well as in his time in the SEL. We've seen what he can do. It's not like were running around saying these guys are the best prospects since Lemeiux.

Literally every single fan base out there hates us. Nobody has a neutral or positive feeling about this team or it's fans. We have elite level prospects and we have a ton of very very good prospects, it's not us over valuing it's the facts. Johnson, Dermott, Kapanen, Marner, Brown, Nylander*, Soshnikov, Hyman and now likely Matthews are all very good prospects. The team is rebuilding the right way and we have a lot to be happy about.

 

[Quares27]

Not necessarily how good they are but people overestimate the chance of them actually reaching their potential and becoming NHLers... you see projected lineups for 1-2 years from now that's 70% current prospects for example

 

[Finnish your Czech]

Every team fanbase overrates their prospects

Including this one

 

[Ropesman]

Not necessarily how good they are but people overestimate the chance of them actually reaching their potential and becoming NHLers... you see projected lineups for 1-2 years from now that's 70% current prospects for example

Yes this is exactly how I feel.

 

[Semantics]

Way less than we used to. Any fan base is going to be high on their prospects, but when the prospects are Matthews, Nylander, Marner, Dermott, Timashov, etc. it's a lot more justified than when it's Finn, Frattin, McKegg, Verhaeghe, etc. A lot of those guys were viewed as future 2nd/3rd line type players around here, rather than long shots to do much in the NHL.

 

[WilliamNylander]

We have three of the best prospects in hockey. So no.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

No, the rest of the nhl has a hard time accepting the leafs are finally on the right path and have the strongest prospect pool in the league. Marner won the OHL mvp, absolutely destroyed the league and dominated Dylan Strome in the playoffs. That's not us over valuing him, it's a fact. Connor Brown has been elite in the AHL and also won the OHL mvp award a couple years back. Nylander destroyed the AHL and played very well in the WJC as well as in his time in the SEL. We've seen what he can do. It's not like were running around saying these guys are the best prospects since Lemeiux.

Literally every single fan base out there hates us. Nobody has a neutral or positive feeling about this team or it's fans. We have elite level prospects and we have a ton of very very good prospects, it's not us over valuing it's the facts. Johnson, Dermott, Kapanen, Marner, Brown, Nylander*, Soshnikov, Hyman and now likely Matthews are all very good prospects. The team is rebuilding the right way and we have a lot to be happy about.

Thanks for leaving out Timashov and the opportunity to say that he is likely headed for a topnine player on a possession based juggernaut under Babcock.

I might be viewed as jumping the gun but the management of this team has put themselves in a very strong position of opportunity. They could possibly turn this around astoundingly quick.

They seem to me to have a plan beyond the accepted view of where they could possibly move thos team next season.

Its looking like a full out load up move to me right now.

 

[diceman934]

We have many on here that over value players with high IQ but have skating issues and they all think that Barb can cure them when the truth is bad feet is not curable.

I try to be as honest as I can be when assessing players and I always look to skating first for players, poor skaters are projects that if everything goes right for them they may make it to the NHL.

We have seen a lot Better drafting from Hunter then we have had since JFJ who by the way drafted extremely well if you take into
consideration where players were selected in the draft. Hunter takes skill and skating over size and this tactic will produce good results.

I love Marner and his upside is at the top of the NHL at worse he is an offensive winger. I rate him higher than Nylander.

Nylander is going to be a very good player as seen by his 20 game stint. He looks to be a top 6 forward who can move to the wing and play with anyone.

We robbed Carrick from Washington and he looks like a good second pair D man who may along with others coming allow us to move Gardner for an area of need.

We have several NHL players in our group of prospect as seen by their play this year. We have some good trading chips in the next couple of years with more on the way with the number of draft picks we have in the next couple of drafts.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Including this years first overall we will have a 5 year draft record of:

Matthews
Marner
Nylander
gauthier ( a good future 4th line center)
Rielly

Thats like about as well as a five year drafting record can turn out for a team possibly!

Nobody over rates any of them do they? I don't think so. Thats four players tjat any team in the league would want to start a build around.

We need a # 1 goalie.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

We have many on here that over value players with high IQ but have skating issues and they all think that Barb can cure them when the truth is bad feet is not curable.

I try to be as honest as I can be when assessing players and I always look to skating first for players, poor skaters are projects that if everything goes right for them they may make it to the NHL.

We have seen a lot Better drafting from Hunter then we have had since JFJ who by the way drafted extremely well if you take into
consideration where players were selected in the draft. Hunter takes skill and skating over size and this tactic will produce good results.

I love Marner and his upside is at the top of the NHL at worse he is an offensive winger. I rate him higher than Nylander.

Nylander is going to be a very good player as seen by his 20 game stint. He looks to be a top 6 forward who can move to the wing and play with anyone.

We robbed Carrick from Washington and he looks like a good second pair D man who may along with others coming allow us to move Gardner for an area of need.

We have several NHL players in our group of prospect as seen by their play this year. We have some good trading chips in the next couple of years with more on the way with the number of draft picks we have in the next couple of drafts.

Bad skating has been fixed time and again.

 

[Eternal Leaf]

To be fair, some of our prospects deserve the hype (i.e. Nylander, Rielly, Marner). You can include Matthews as well.

The rest, I agree we get overzealous as most fan bases do.

BUT, for the first time in a long time, our prospect pool is legitimately nice. You don't have to be a homer to say that.

 

[diceman934]

Bad skating has been fixed time and again.

Never has bad feet been fixed....stride length can change and a small increase in speed, but bad feet is not curable.

Bad feet: heavy feet with poor transitional skating technique as well as a lack of lateral movement. Foot work is so hard to improve as is fast twitch muscle increase.

 

[Leafs1993]

Yes we definitely over rate some players. All fans tend to do that for their respective teams. Mathews, Marner and Nylander are worth the hype they get.

 

[Ciao]

Leafs Nation would be a pretty jaded bunch if it didn't over-rate its prospects . Of course we over-rate them! Every fan base does the same

 

[Leafsman]

I find Leaf fans to be one of the most self-regulating fan bases in professional sports.

For every fan that over-values there is one that under-values. Look at the sheer volume of discussions under the Leaf section of this board compared to others.

In addition, is there a more monitored fan base in sports?

For every Leaf fan that speaks positively, there are several other team fans waiting to just knock them down.

Even more, there are non-hockey fans that just jump on the Leaf-bashing band wagon. I can't count the times I've been with people who know next to nothing about the team yet when you mention your fandom, they still always have a snide comment or two. Repeating the same ol' thing they've heard the rest of hockey fans say.

Leaf fans who over-value the team are not a bunch of delusional fan-boys, they just are likely responding to the sometimes over-whelming backlash they receive for being fans.

This is not an easy team to be a fan of, you have to deal with perpetual disappointment and a constant barrage of reminders from a section of our own fans, other fans and non-fans.

The best thing though is that the team is finally starting to catch up to our inflated sense of it. Mgmt is over-producing and under-promising and more than ever I find Leaf fans are "cautiously optimistic" in a time where they can start some over-valuing because some of these prospects may start turning out to be valuable.