Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason part I

[SteveCangialosi123]

Mercer would be such a Bruins type player. A coggy 20 goal scorer.

Would be funny to see more of our washout fwd's go to Boston and their Vezina level goalie come to NJ. Not sure the results would be much different than we've seen over the last 5 years.

Ullmark had the one insane outlier year and has otherwise been the same good goalie he was in Buffalo. .915, .917 in his last two years in Buffalo. .917, .915 with crazy Vezina season in between in Boston.

 

[devilsblood]

Ullmark had the one insane outlier year and has otherwise been the same good goalie he was in Buffalo. .915, .917 in his last two years in Buffalo. .917, .915 with crazy Vezina season in between in Boston.

The things I would do for .915

 

[Guadana]

Yeah, trading your forward who can score 20 in a bad year for 40 games elite backup in his 31-32 years would great idea. Great enough to add 10OA in the trade.


Two months of this ahead of us.

 

[Nocashstyle]

Yeah Ullmark is a little scary with his average-to-good play, suddenly elite for a year, then back to good. I would definitely give up some value to get him, but not crippling value.

 

[devilsblood]

Yeah, trading your forward who can score 20 in a bad year for 40 games elite backup in his 31-32 years would great idea. Great enough to add 10OA in the trade.


Two months of this ahead of us.

A 20 goal winger is not all that valuable.

I would absolutely not include 10OA in an Ullmark trade.

Nor am I even proposing a trade.

 

[Guadana]

A 20 goal winger is not all that valuable.

I would absolutely not include 10OA in an Ullmark trade.

Nor am I even proposing a trade.

He is 20 goal scorer last year. He was 27 goal scorer year before in his second year in the league. He is under team control. Ullmark is one year away from UFA as 32 yo who doesn't play regular starter role. If we want him we can sign him for free next summer. We already trade Sharangovich, Zetterlund, Wood and Boqvist were gone for free, we can't waste our assets anymore.
You can sell it for Swayman or for Wallstedt but not for aged goalies. Teams with good goalies doesn't work without depth.

 

[devilsblood]

Yeah Ullmark is a little scary with his average-to-good play, suddenly elite for a year, then back to good. I would definitely give up some value to get him, but not crippling value.

Ullmark's numbers so far exceed what we have seen in NJ over the last 5 years I see nothing scary there.

Do we question how much of his numbers are based on playing in Boston? Maybe, but he put up similar numbers on a bad Buff team.

One year left at 30 years old is the biggest concern. He's going to want years that I wouldn't want to give him.

 

[Nocashstyle]

Players taken at 10th overall the past ten drafts:

-Dalibor Dvorsky
-Pavel Mintyukov
-Tyler Boucher
-Cole Perfetti
-Vasily Podkolzin
-Evan Bouchard
-Owen Tippet
-Tyson Jost
-Mikko Rantanen
-Nick Ritchie

So, one elite player in Rantanen in one of the deepest drafts of all time, Bouchard and Tippet are very good, Minyukov is looking good. Too early to tell for Dvorak’s. Perfetti seems like he will be a useful NHLer.

Yeah, I’m not clutching this pick to my chest refusing to trade for a goalie.

 

[devilsblood]

He is 20 goal scorer last year. He was 27 goal scorer year before in his second year in the league. He is under team control. Ullmark is one year away from UFA as 32 yo who doesn't play regular starter role. If we want him we can sign him for free next summer. We already trade Sharangovich, Zetterlund, Wood and Boqvist were gone for free, we can't waste our assets anymore.
You can sell it for Swayman or for Wallstedt but not for aged goalies. Teams with good goalies doesn't work without depth.

We really don't know what Mercer is. Was 27 goals an aberration? Are his rookie year and this year more what we should expect?

He's not big, he's not fast, he's not much of a passer? He has some goal scoring hands around the net but he lacks puck skills in general.

Now you do make points as per the Devils having moved on from a bunch of good depth fwd's in recent years. And I too am wary of signing Ullmark beyond next year. End of the day do I trade Mercer for Ullmark? Probably not.

But goal tending was a major issue this year, could say it sunk our season, and Ullmark, whether we want to act like his 40 games played every year makes him a backup or a starter, would be a significant upgrade at the position.

 

[Unknown Caller]

Players taken at 10th overall the past ten drafts:

-Dalibor Dvorsky
-Pavel Mintyukov
-Tyler Boucher
-Cole Perfetti
-Vasily Podkolzin
-Evan Bouchard
-Owen Tippet
-Tyson Jost
-Mikko Rantanen
-Nick Ritchie

So, one elite player in Rantanen in one of the deepest drafts of all time, Bouchard and Tippet are very good, Minyukov is looking good. Too early to tell for Dvorak’s. Perfetti seems like he will be a useful NHLer.

Yeah, I’m not clutching this pick to my chest refusing to trade for a goalie.

Exactly. You can hoard mid-1st round picks and 20 goal scorers all you want, but without a solution in net it's all useless.

The 10th overall pick is a far cry from a 1st/2nd overall pick. It's a moveable asset that is huge bargaining chip in trade negotiations.

As for Ullmark, he's a completely different goalie under Montgomery than he was beforehand. I would be a little wary of giving up valuable assets for him when he's only been elite under specific conditions.

 

[Cheddabombs]

Count me in on team trade the pick. Package it up to fill holes in the skaters group, or get a real solution in net. I'd be a bit more picky with a goalie that I'd target with the pick though.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Players taken at 10th overall the past ten drafts:

-Dalibor Dvorsky
-Pavel Mintyukov
-Tyler Boucher
-Cole Perfetti
-Vasily Podkolzin
-Evan Bouchard
-Owen Tippet
-Tyson Jost
-Mikko Rantanen
-Nick Ritchie

So, one elite player in Rantanen in one of the deepest drafts of all time, Bouchard and Tippet are very good, Minyukov is looking good. Too early to tell for Dvorak’s. Perfetti seems like he will be a useful NHLer.

Yeah, I’m not clutching this pick to my chest refusing to trade for a goalie.

I would put Bouchard in the elite category too. But still, far from a guarantee of getting a good player.

There really aren’t that many players that seem worth moving the pick for. Maybe #10 plus Holtz or someone for Buchnevich and #16?

 

[devilsblood]

Yeah, I’m not clutching this pick to my chest refusing to trade for a goalie.

It's got to be the right goalie though.

As noted above, a guy like Ullmark turns 31 in a few months and is a UFA at the end of next season.

So you are basically trading that pick for what is either a one year rental, or what will likely be a big, heavy, potentially bad, contract.

 

[Guadana]

Players taken at 10th overall the past ten drafts:

-Dalibor Dvorsky
-Pavel Mintyukov
-Tyler Boucher
-Cole Perfetti
-Vasily Podkolzin
-Evan Bouchard
-Owen Tippet
-Tyson Jost
-Mikko Rantanen
-Nick Ritchie

So, one elite player in Rantanen in one of the deepest drafts of all time, Bouchard and Tippet are very good, Minyukov is looking good. Too early to tell for Dvorak’s. Perfetti seems like he will be a useful NHLer.

Yeah, I’m not clutching this pick to my chest refusing to trade for a goalie.

This is one of the most illiterate approaches to assessing the value of such an asset.


Dvorsky isnt NHLer still. Still very productive. There are was Benson available who was ranked top 10. Not only him.
Mintyukov is very good two way defenseman with very good skating and IQ. Have better value than Ullmark and Saros. There are tonns of intriguing defensemen on the draft 2024. Yurov and Nazar were available, very good prospects, ranked top -10 by many scouts.
In 2020 Jarvis was ranked from 7 to 13 everywhere, not only him.
In 2019 Caufield was known as a prospect with better all around game than Eiserman, there were Boldy - big player with good skills.
Bouchard is ppg defenseman. Dobson is a good defenseman too.
After Tippet - who is quite good scoring winger, there were Vilardi and Necas, Suzuki - all are very important for their teams now.
In 2016 both McAvoy and Chycrun was named as high potential defensemen, both fall.
In 2015 Barzal fall a lot and was known as a player with high potential.

If your team have good scouting group, they will find good player. Who will be under control for 7-10 or even 14-15 years. If your gm doesnt hire good scouts and\or in panic mode, he will trade 10OA for 30-32 yo goalie who is one year away from the market and will be good for a couple may be little more years. Hellebyuck doesnt help to Jets, like Saros doesnt help to Preds. Even Sorokin isnt as consistent as isles fans want. Ullmark is sitting on the bench.

Without depth and coach goalies are useless. With depth and coaching Colorado is doing their things with average or below average goalies.

 

[Monsieur Verdoux]

I would put Bouchard in the elite category too. But still, far from a guarantee of getting a good player.

There really aren’t that many players that seem worth moving the pick for. Maybe #10 plus Holtz or someone for Buchnevich and #16?

This is probably the biggest problem. There just aren't many good under 30 year old players available for this pick. I mean I wouldn't trade it for Buchnevich, Ullmark or someone like them.

 

[NJDevs26]

I also agree the 10th pick isn't as valuable as it's being made out to be on this board and the Devils are just about at the point where picks need to be thought of as little more than trade assets, if not this offseason than surely next. If it isn't the case by next offseason then something's gone horribly wrong.

But tbh even I wouldn't deal the 10th pick for Ullmark or Markstrom, if you're dealing it for a short-term solution you kind of want it to be for more of a sure thing than Markstrom or a bit more term than Ullmark (who you'd have to sign to a massive extension and hope it doesn't immediately blow up on you).

 

[Nocashstyle]

I would put Bouchard in the elite category too. But still, far from a guarantee of getting a good player.

There really aren’t that many players that seem worth moving the pick for. Maybe #10 plus Holtz or someone for Buchnevich and #16?

Yeah Bouchard can probably be moved up a tier. But, either way point is, if Fitz trades the pick, when all is said and done, it’s probably more likely we end up getting a better NHL impact player than whoever is taken at 10th overall. Sure, cost control and all that, but if this team’s core is ready to compete now, and there’s an available deal to address a need, I hope Fitz takes it.

 

[Guadana]

We really don't know what Mercer is. Was 27 goals an aberration? Are his rookie year and this year more what we should expect?

He's not big, he's not fast, he's not much of a passer? He has some goal scoring hands around the net but he lacks puck skills in general.

Now you do make points as per the Devils having moved on from a bunch of good depth fwd's in recent years. And I too am wary of signing Ullmark beyond next year. End of the day do I trade Mercer for Ullmark? Probably not.

But goal tending was a major issue this year, could say it sunk our season, and Ullmark, whether we want to act like his 40 games played every year makes him a backup or a starter, would be a significant upgrade at the position.

It wasnt the issue after trades, this team didnt start to win. Goaltending should be fixed but not by ruining depth and trading players with top-6 potential. They were good with Vanecek and Blackwood year ago. Even this season Vanecek had good winning records.

Everything we have in Mercer we will know in the next years. Because we have him under control to study him. We dont have control under Saros or Ullmark and we have much more risks with their aging under new 7-8 mil deals.

 

[Rhodes 81]

We were top-12 in scoring in the year of injuries and disappointment. They need other things.

I don't exactly think it's the number of goals that need to change, but adding variety to how we score is critical. This team struggled in games where they couldn't get anything going on the rush or power play. Last year, we forced more turnovers in the neutral zone which is something we will likely get back to if the D are making better decisions and the whole team has more confidence in their linemates providing support + whoever is in net.

But even last year we were missing the ability to grind out goals from sustained possession. This is where a player like Toffoli was supposed to help the most. If Holtz can get the rest of his game together he's shown flashes of that as well. But a winger that could help Jack's line play more of a cycle game (something he should be good at with his skill set) would add another dimension to our attack that's mostly missing outside of Hischier's line. It doesn't have to be an elite player, but someone like Tatar in 22-23 would help the team both offensively and defensively and help them win different types of games when they aren't dictating the pace of play.

I'd trade #10 for a package including a middle six (actual) center and a top-4 LD.

Don't think there's much precedent for a pick in this range brining back two roster players. I could see a solid LHD deciding they want out of somewhere and then a package of 10OA + Seigenthaler or maybe even Bahl could get it done. Getting a legitimate middle six forward in that same deal would be tough without adding more, and is asking for a trade partner with a really specific set of circumstances.

My preference for LHD would be to upgrade Seigenthaler and then bring in a similar player to Colin Miller to split time with Bahl, since that is most likely going to be cheaper on the cap and leaves more room for forwards. It might just end up being the 2nd half of that, though.

 

[HBK27]

 

[Nocashstyle]

This is one of the most illiterate approaches to assessing the value of such an asset.


Dvorsky isnt NHLer still. Still very productive. There are was Benson available who was ranked top 10. Not only him.
Mintyukov is very good two way defenseman with very good skating and IQ. Have better value than Ullmark and Saros. There are tonns of intriguing defensemen on the draft 2024. Yurov and Nazar were available, very good prospects, ranked top -10 by many scouts.
In 2020 Jarvis was ranked from 7 to 13 everywhere, not only him.
In 2019 Caufield was known as a prospect with better all around game than Eiserman, there were Boldy - big player with good skills.
Bouchard is ppg defenseman. Dobson is a good defenseman too.
After Tippet - who is quite good scoring winger, there were Vilardi and Necas, Suzuki - all are very important for their teams now.
In 2016 both McAvoy and Chycrun was named as high potential defensemen, both fall.
In 2015 Barzal fall a lot and was known as a player with high potential.

If your team have good scouting group, they will find good player. Who will be under control for 7-10 or even 14-15 years. If your gm doesnt hire good scouts and\or in panic mode, he will trade 10OA for 30-32 yo goalie who is one year away from the market and will be good for a couple may be little more years. Hellebyuck doesnt help to Jets, like Saros doesnt help to Preds. Even Sorokin isnt as consistent as isles fans want. Ullmark is sitting on the bench.

Without depth and coach goalies are useless. With depth and coaching Colorado is doing their things with average or below average goalies.

Look, I respect your posts, and know you have a keen eye for scouting, but the reality is, the draft is a crapshoot. This team’s core is ready to contend. I don’t think an 18 year old who 1.) may or may not even be an NHLer in general or 2.) if the team is lucky enough to draft an NHL talent, the player is still likely 3 or 4 years away from being a true impact player, is as valuable as a known impact commodity for where the Devils are at right now.

We’ve had enough first round picks to fill out a very solid core. It’s time to address immediate needs if a deal is there.

I’m not advocating for Fitz to just throw the pick away at anyone, but it is a valuable piece to center a deal around.

 

[theoptimist]

He is 20 goal scorer last year. He was 27 goal scorer year before in his second year in the league. He is under team control. Ullmark is one year away from UFA as 32 yo who doesn't play regular starter role. If we want him we can sign him for free next summer. We already trade Sharangovich, Zetterlund, Wood and Boqvist were gone for free, we can't waste our assets anymore.
You can sell it for Swayman or for Wallstedt but not for aged goalies. Teams with good goalies doesn't work without depth.

I wouldn’t trade either the 10th pick or Mercer for ANY goalie.

I ask everyone to check capfriendly, we are broke.

 

[NJDevs26]

I'm really at the point with this guy where I can't think EVERYONE in management is wrong about him. You just wonder why they're so public about it, it clearly isn't helping anyone.

 

[Guadana]

Overall Fitz should not care about panic fans who wants "now". He should work with low price trades, free agents and draft. Because this team still has problems to adress and still very young to not waste all the assets to win it now, a lot of players are on ELC or on cheap deals, enough of cap hit to sign players.


All of actual top-10 picks trades were bad except Fiala for Ohgren and Faber - it was even. Even if fans are dreaming about this trade and how "unknown" this top-10 pick player is, it doesnt change the fact that mostly it is a bad strategy in the league to trade this assets for winning now. I believe Ottawa regrets about their decision with Debrinkat and Chycrun. If some fan thinks that we will have better outcome - its the bet people can bet.

 

[theoptimist]

I would trade #10 for a 2/3C or top 4 LHD as others have mentioned. That’s it.