Devils 2017-18 team discussion (player news and notes) - season begins!

[Burner Account]

"Bing him"

Love it.

 

[Emperoreddy]

After watching some of that Bingo game on MSG...yikes. Zacha is not gonna be having any fun down there, they are awful. I'm not sure it will help his confidence if that's what they decide to do.

Q is hurt. Adding both Zacha and Q changes that team overnight.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Only here to post Zubrus love.

I lovvvvve Zubrus!

People forget how good prime Zubs was.

 

[The Devil In I]

Only here to post Zubrus love.

I lovvvvve Zubrus!

Before the game in Chicago me and a few friends ended up having a Blackhawks fan buy us a round of shots at the bar before he left for the game. Why? Because the guys name was Dainius so his favorite player as a kid was Zubrus, and Zubrus played for the Devils.

 

[Darkauron]

I miss the Dainis ZubrusRex and DJ Zubie. Such a great guy and player for us

 

[Blender]

While I'll be disappointed if Zacha as a 6th overall only reaches Zubrus level, the Zubrusaurus was a hell of a player for a long time.

 

[HBK27]

Not sure which thread this belongs in, but interesting article on each team's "core U-24".

Devils had the highest jump versus last season, which was not surprising.

That they have Butcher ahead of Bratt and Severson (not to mention Zacha) is a bit surprising.

Young Leafs lead the pack in TSN Hockey's U-24 Core Four ranking - Article - TSN

 

[R8Devs]

Optimizing the Devils Roster

decent read

 

[BenedictGomez]

People who bash "advanced" stats do so because it challenges their hockey world view.

I'm one of the people who "bash" several of the "advanced" (love that term BTW, lol) stats, not because it challenges my hockey world, but because I have quite a bit of experience breaking down research and statistics, and I genuinely don't think most of them are very useful. Way to many dependent variables come into play in such a manner that I believe there's far more randomness than significance than most people generally understand, and Corsi, IMO, is the worst of them all.

It reminds me of scientific research that gets underway, and only after 17 months of work does someone realize the methodology was flawed from the start. I believe Corsi is the answer to a question that isn't particularly useful to ask in the first place, relying on multiple "iffy" assumptions.

Moreover, anyone who knows anything about statistics knows that more input is better than less input. Whenever a commonly known crappy player is pointed out as having a great Corsi, or a commonly known solid player is pointed out as having a crappy Corsi, these are just dismissed as odd outliers. Ummmm...Okay. Well then, if Corsi really is critical, TEAM Corsi should be a FAR greater indicator of statistical correlation to achievement than ANY lone individual player's Corsi is correlated to a given Team's achievement. Yet here again, I can (every year) provide examples of team's with the better records having mediocre Corsi, or celler dwellers with very good Corsi. The metric is flawed, in no small part due to the fact that as I began by saying, there are just too many dependent variables at play, and not all of them which are captured as positive/negative are actually positive or negative (i.e. blocking shots is a GOOD thing (captured in Corsi as a negative thing), forcing opponents to take numerous shots from the outside is a GOOD thing
(captured in Corsi as a negative thing), often weakly lofting shots on goal from the blueline is a BAD thing (captured in Corsi as a positive thing), etc.....

 

[Emperoreddy]

Advanced stats are frequently misused on this site and by some journalists too.

Either stats are being cherry picked to make the writer’s point and ignoring others that go against them. That or they are just pulled with zero context and no care taken to the sample size or how it ranks across the league, or accounting for larger sample sizes.

The worst is people pulling them out as the end all be all when they haven’t sat down and watched even one game of the player or team in question.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Advanced stats are frequently misused on this site and by some journalists too.

That or they are just pulled with zero context and no care taken to the sample size or how it ranks across the league, or accounting for larger sample sizes.

Here's a great example alluding to the above that will surprise people.

Steve Santini has the 2nd worst Corsi in THE ENTIRE NHL, out of HUNDREDS of starting players! Only Matt Cullen's Corsi is worse than Santini's among players with > 6 games played!

Does anyone really think Steve Santini is one of the worst players in the entire NHL?


Now here's where the people who think they know a lot about "advanced statistics" will immediately jump in and say, "BUT, he also has near the most defensive zone starts in the entire NHL!" - and they'll say this as if it's a legitimate way to somehow defend Corsi.

To which I'll say, okay then, please mathematically correlate Corsi with D.Z.S percentage. Their response will be......."ummmm.....well.... there's no way to do that", and my reply will be --> Precisely.

And because of that, mathematically, you've got nothing.

All you've got is a way to help partially explain why his Corsi sucks. Which gets us back to, what exactly is Corsi really determining anyway? Because I submit that Corsi is the answer to a question that was never properly asked, and isnt answering what people commonly believe it's answering.

 

[Wingman77]

Only here to post Zubrus love.

I lovvvvve Zubrus!

People forget how good prime Zubs was.

Essentially the definition of versitile. Could stick him on any line, in any situation and know you'd get an honest and reliable return. He was a classic Devil/Lou player.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

I would say Steve Santini has been consistently pinned in his own zone with Andy Greene and they haven't generated much offense together. Is that not clear? Similar to how Greene-Larsson was a punching bag in his final year here, though that pairing performed better. His corsi doesn't tell you he stinks, it tells you he consistently doesn't have the puck. He's also facing the top line consistently. You can find all the relevant context you need to have an informed opinion. Corsi tells you what it tells you, there's no need to irrationally get angry that it doesn't tell you every single thing that happens on the ice. There are other stats and your eyes that give you context.

This is like screaming and crying that the temperature doesn't tell you everything about the weather for the day. "What if it's raining? What if it's windy? What if it's snowing? Temperature is STUPID because it doesn't tell me these things!!" How about you read the rest of the weather report and get informed? Or better yet, look outside?

 

[Emperoreddy]

Reenergized and refocused, Gibbons has become surprising weapon for Devils | The Hockey News

Gibbons story

 

[Better Call Sal]

Essentially the definition of versitile. Could stick him on any line, in any situation and know you'd get an honest and reliable return. He was a classic Devil/Lou player.

Zubie was also a first round pick, for those wondering.

 

[Blender]

I would say Steve Santini has been consistently pinned in his own zone with Andy Greene and they haven't generated much offense together. Is that not clear? Similar to how Greene-Larsson was a punching bag in his final year here, though that pairing performed better. His corsi doesn't tell you he stinks, it tells you he consistently doesn't have the puck. He's also facing the top line consistently. You can find all the relevant context you need to have an informed opinion. Corsi tells you what it tells you, there's no need to irrationally get angry that it doesn't tell you every single thing that happens on the ice. There are other stats and your eyes that give you context.

This is like screaming and crying that the temperature doesn't tell you everything about the weather for the day. "What if it's raining? What if it's windy? What if it's snowing? Temperature is STUPID because it doesn't tell me these things!!" How about you read the rest of the weather report and get informed? Or better yet, look outside?

They aren't saying that corsi is a bad stat, it tells you exactly what it does, but the way it is used is often poor. It's very often thrown put as the best stat to determine performance, when it really only tells you one thing.

 

[Cheddabombs]

TSN Hockey's U-24 Core Four Rankings - TSN GO - Article - TSN

We're 9th in this list. Kinda crazy.

 

[devilsblood]

This is like screaming and crying that the temperature doesn't tell you everything about the weather for the day. "What if it's raining? What if it's windy? What if it's snowing? Temperature is STUPID because it doesn't tell me these things!!" How about you read the rest of the weather report and get informed? Or better yet, look outside?

Reminds me of people who look at the forecast, and seeing a box with a sun in it, get peeved at the weather people when it's foggy at 6 am(only to clear up and be a beautiful day later).

 

[devilsblood]

if Corsi really is critical, TEAM Corsi should be a FAR greater indicator of statistical correlation to achievement than ANY lone individual player's Corsi is correlated to a given Team's achievement.

5 worst Corsi teams last year?

Arizona, Sabres, Isles, Devils, Canucks. None of these teams made the playoffs. 3 of those teams were pretty terrible. Only 1 would you even describe as mediocre.

Sure there are outliers, but in general Corsi does a pretty good job of predicting success.

 

[Zippy316]

Not sure which thread this belongs in, but interesting article on each team's "core U-24".

Devils had the highest jump versus last season, which was not surprising.

That they have Butcher ahead of Bratt and Severson (not to mention Zacha) is a bit surprising.

Young Leafs lead the pack in TSN Hockey's U-24 Core Four ranking - Article - TSN

I could see the argument. Butcher's best assets -- his instincts, awareness, and edgework -- are the hardest things to teach to a young player. He has them and now it's about getting used to the NHL game and getting faster.

In all honesty, I feel comfortable when Butcher is out there. He reads and breaks up plays extremely well. He knows his limitations and plays within them defensively.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Everyone needs to buy a ticket in regards to Zacha

 

[Blender]

5 worst Corsi teams last year?

Arizona, Sabres, Isles, Devils, Canucks. None of these teams made the playoffs. 3 of those teams were pretty terrible. Only 1 would you even describe as mediocre.

Sure there are outliers, but in general Corsi does a pretty good job of predicting success.

I think that's what he's saying. Team corsi is valuable but individual corsi less so.

 

[Jets012]

Butcher might be the most underrated player on the team this year. Sure he isn't a rock in his own zone, but he's done a great job at being a puck mover and he's been dependable enough. Would love to see him and Severson get minutes together. Two guys that could really generate a lot of chances with our offensive talent.

 

[Zippy316]

If the Devils keep close to this same pace up for the next couple months, I think Shero might have to consider trading Henrique for a more veteran LD whose contract expires either after 18-19 or 19-20. Since we look to have a lot of talented prospects from Castron, I think it might be the best move for the team.

The only thing the Devils lack right now on the NHL team is a LD that can play a similar role to Greene. Would help to ease in Severson, Santini, Mueller, and Butcher a bit by having a second reliable partner in the top six.

Someone like Edler, Muzzin, or Martinez would be ideal. Gunnarsson or Coburn are a couple other candidates, but I feel as though they're a tier below what the Devils need. Bouwmeester is a bit too old but he could probably do the job. Johnson, Cole, and Hamhuis are all UFAs at years end so that could be another alternative.

 

[My3Sons]

Advanced stats are frequently misused on this site and by some journalists too.

Either stats are being cherry picked to make the writer’s point and ignoring others that go against them. That or they are just pulled with zero context and no care taken to the sample size or how it ranks across the league, or accounting for larger sample sizes.

The worst is people pulling them out as the end all be all when they haven’t sat down and watched even one game of the player or team in question.

To be fair 83.48 percent of statistics are just made up out of thin air.