Player Discussion Darnell Nurse is a #1 dman

[CantHaveTkachev]

You know they can all be bad, right?

But if those three guys stink it up they're probably all gone after this year. Nurse won't be. Holland grossly overestimated his abilities.

and thank god for that

 

[McDNicks17]

A lot of his struggles are because of the team not having a clue what they're doing in transition again. Nurse isn't the best decision-maker. If you make his decisions harder, he's going to look worse.

That goes for every D on the team too. Woody needs to figure his shit out.

 

[K1984]

If he was a 5 or 6 million d-man he would be paid like a #3 defenseman.

Well this all depends on your definition of "true #1". If your "true #1" is what most people call a "true #1", then there are probably not 10 defensemen in the world who fit that definition. He's not a top 10 defenseman. But there also aren't 30 defensemen better than him in the league.

Truly, the only things keeping Nurse from being considered that "true #1" in my opinion are 1) outdated narratives, and 2) consistency. Regarding consistency, most games he is very good. It's those atrocious games that he has every now and then that are problematic for the team, as we don't have anyone to step up when he is off his game. The elite defensemen in the league have far fewer bad games.

For him it isn't even necessarily bad games all the time (although he definitely has those too), but really bad moments. Swimming on the PK like an idiot and missing his check for a GA. Missing a basic breakout pass for icing while standing still. Giving up way too much gap and backing into the net.

These things aren't even always constants, they just appear for some reason and usually it results in a goal or scoring chance against. He could play 98% of a great game, then leave too much gap once and be on his knees on the PK another and we are down 2-0.

He frustrates the shit out of me because these are errors that elite NHL d men have gone from their games almost completely 3ish years into the league at most. He just can seem to ever not display these dumb habits.

 

[Whyme]

For him it isn't even necessarily bad games all the time (although he definitely has those too), but really bad moments. Swimming on the PK like an idiot and missing his check for a GA. Missing a basic breakout pass for icing while standing still. Giving up way too much gap and backing into the net.

These things aren't even always constants, they just appear for some reason and usually it results in a goal or scoring chance against. He could play 98% of a great game, then leave too much gap once and be on his knees on the PK another and we are down 2-0.

He frustrates the shit out of me because these are errors that elite NHL d men have gone from their games almost completely 3ish years into the league at most. He just can seem to ever not display these dumb habits.

I was told earlier (several times) that even without too much offensive production Nurse would be worth over 8 million just because of his high TOI. I didn't and still don't see it that way. I may be wrong, but to me it seems like the star players care about their points a bit too much. It's kind of natural this kind of thinking would affect Nurse as he probably carries a lot of of pressure and feels he is paid to produce points, which is why he may not concentrate 100% on other things. Just speculation so I could be wrong, but I think a bit more thought in some situations would go a long way and make Nurse closer to a more complete player.

 

[Stoneman89]

Would be nice if Nurse would get more physically engaged, and produced the odd hit now and then. His biggest hits tend to come after the play is over in front of the net, or if someone knees McDavid. Guess he figures he's so f***ing valuable that he can't take the chance of getting hurt by contact.

 

[Rengorlex]

I don't understand how Darnell Nurse got paid 9.25 million. Everyone was down on him after 19-20 and the talks of him having a 7m contract were terrifying the fanbase. Then he goes on a sh% blender on a shortened year and suddenly gets paid like he's one of the best defencemen in the league?? lol, this guy has never been that good. More like a #3 in a contender.

 

[McDNicks17]

I don't understand how Darnell Nurse got paid 9.25 million. Everyone was down on him after 19-20 and the talks of him having a 7m contract were terrifying the fanbase. Then he goes on a sh% blender on a shortened year and suddenly gets paid like he's one of the best defencemen in the league?? lol, this guy has never been that good. More like a #3 in a contender.

Short answer: Ken Holland.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

At this rate maybe we should trade for Chychrun just to give Darnell some competition for ice time. He just seems too content out there because he knows full well that he is our best LHD by a country mile.

 

[Gordievsky]

Short answer: Ken Holland.

Supply and demand, meet Ken Holland.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

For him it isn't even necessarily bad games all the time (although he definitely has those too), but really bad moments. Swimming on the PK like an idiot and missing his check for a GA. Missing a basic breakout pass for icing while standing still. Giving up way too much gap and backing into the net.

These things aren't even always constants, they just appear for some reason and usually it results in a goal or scoring chance against. He could play 98% of a great game, then leave too much gap once and be on his knees on the PK another and we are down 2-0.

He frustrates the shit out of me because these are errors that elite NHL d men have gone from their games almost completely 3ish years into the league at most. He just can seem to ever not display these dumb habits.

I agree with much of your post. I think a bit of the issue is somewhat the McDavid Draisaitl school of trying too hard at times to carry an often mediocre team effort. Big difference is that when D-men make mistakes there is less safety net and pucks frequently go into the net.

I think Nurse would be more effective with less minutes more in the 20-22 minute range which requires better talent around him on the Oilers blue line. My frustration is with his own zone play which breaks down with a tendency to roam out of a simple defending position to guard blue paint ice and mitigate high danger chances against. He's not as mean, physical or hard in his defending style and 'lean' Nurse body type loses more physical battles than I can ever recall. The starfish defending flop also needs to be eliminated (been less of it this year - a good thing!)

Nurse is a supremely confident player with a great toolkit of length, elite skating and physical disposition. But when he tries to do too much in all areas of the ice, notably his own zone defending structure and decision making suffers... and doesn't help this team and especially it's one-dimensional, soft, finesse platoon d-corp. His greatest leadership contribution would like be to simplify his game to provide the consistent, efficient defending example this team desperately needs.

 

[NotAVacuumSalesman]

Why the hell does Darnell play the puck like that?

 

[K1984]

Why the hell does Darnell play the puck like that?

The going down on one knee thing with him drives me absolutely crazy. It’s to the point of being embarrassing. I have no idea what the thought process is handling that play like that.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Why the hell does Darnell play the puck like that?

I assumed cause the puck was bouncing

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Craig Button on Darnell Nurse at 7 minute mark. Worth a listen. A lot of similarities to what I observe and posted above.

Button: No matter where you are in the game, Connor has a chance to lift the team up

TSN Hockey analyst Craig Button recaps the Oilers/Panthers game, the brilliance of Connor McDavid and the value of Zach Hyman

www.tsn.ca

 

[Shanahanigans]

I don't understand how Darnell Nurse got paid 9.25 million. Everyone was down on him after 19-20 and the talks of him having a 7m contract were terrifying the fanbase. Then he goes on a sh% blender on a shortened year and suddenly gets paid like he's one of the best defencemen in the league?? lol, this guy has never been that good. More like a #3 in a contender.

A team that hasn't understood numbers, regression, shooting percentage, etc, in a over a decade. Kassian contract, Nurse contract, heck even Chiasson contract were all after shooting percentage benders. Eberle trade was after a low shooting percentage playoffs, he's been money in the post season ever since. A team that continues to have no process to how they evaluate players will continue to make the kind of mistakes the Oilers have been making for a long time now.
The craziest thing about the Nurse contract year is that Tipp stapled Nurse and Barrie to Mcdrai that year- but that pair was caved in when they weren't playing with 97/29.

 

[ManofSteel55]

I don't understand how Darnell Nurse got paid 9.25 million. Everyone was down on him after 19-20 and the talks of him having a 7m contract were terrifying the fanbase. Then he goes on a sh% blender on a shortened year and suddenly gets paid like he's one of the best defencemen in the league?? lol, this guy has never been that good. More like a #3 in a contender.

1) He eats a ton of minutes. Old school hockey minds overrate that, even if the minutes are positive for the most part.
2) He scored a ton that season. Old school hockey minds who don't value stats didn't care to look to see that was based on a super high shooting percentage.
3) The team refused to extend him to a long deal until they "knew what they had". Then they jumped the gun and signed him after a season where his production was not going to be sustainable, and it was one year before he was going to be a UFA, so they handed Nurse and his agent all the leverate.
4) Defensemen with comparable stats signed similar UFA deals at the same time. Seth Jones and Zack Werenski. Jones could get his overpayment thanks to Ken H., for what it's worth, and that deal broke the market. It was pay up, or wait to bid against everyone else as a UFA at that point.
5) Despite his faults, Nurse does have a lot of unique things that make him a player that GM's want. His combination of speed, toughness/physicality isn't common, and he's not awful offensively either, which only increases the demand. And makes old school hockey minds like our GM salivate.
6) As soon as Klefbom was gone, Nurse and his agent knew that Nurse was the only top 4 option left for Edmonton and had to sign him. Holland knew that if Nurse leaves, our only top 4 option is Tyson Barrie. Woof.

 

[HockeyGuy1964]

I assumed cause the puck was bouncing

But, but...........









This doesn't fit the narrative that he's stupid so that can't be it.

 

[FlameChampion]

Craig Button on Darnell Nurse at 7 minute mark. Worth a listen. A lot of similarities to what I observe and posted above.

Button: No matter where you are in the game, Connor has a chance to lift the team up

TSN Hockey analyst Craig Button recaps the Oilers/Panthers game, the brilliance of Connor McDavid and the value of Zach Hyman

www.tsn.ca

I think he is around a 7 mil defenseman. His play isnt consistent enough to be paid more.

To his credit, he does play a ton of minutes and he plays against tough competition.

He is just a high event player. I dont think you want that type of dman being the anchor to your defense. That being said, I dont know how much choice the Oilers have. The defense would be way worse without him. At the same time when you are paying him 9.25 mil a year, it takes away money that could be used to fill in the defense better. Its a double edged sword. They need to find a partner who is basically a defensive stud to help him out.

If you take Heiskanen for example. He makes 8.5 mil. Hes probably worth 8.5 mil - 70% of the time. 15% of the time hes probably a 6.5 mil dman. 15% of the time hes a 9mil+ player. The percentages are probably off a bit, as I dont watch enough Dallas games to know for sure. My point is that Heiskanen is playing his worth consistently.

If you take Nurse. Hes probably a 9 mil - 15% of the time. Hes probably a 7 mil dman 70% of the time. And hes probably a 5 mil dman 15% of the time. And I feel generous because I think his range is much wider than that. Occasionally he has sub 3 million dollar dman games.

Its actually a quite an easy summary. Hes a good player. But his contract his bad.

 

[frag2]

I assumed cause the puck was bouncing

Bouncing or not though...thats how Nurse seems to always play defensively. IIRC, both Smith and Talbot before him complained about OIlers D playing too close in front of them and not letting the puck get to them. Nurse has always and still plays this way unfortunately.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

I think he is around a 7 mil defenseman. His play isnt consistent enough to be paid more.

To his credit, he does play a ton of minutes and he plays against tough competition.

He is just a high event player. I dont think you want that type of dman being the anchor to your defense. That being said, I dont know how much choice the Oilers have. The defense would be way worse without him. At the same time when you are paying him 9.25 mil a year, it takes away money that could be used to fill in the defense better. Its a double edged sword. They need to find a partner who is basically a defensive stud to help him out.

If you take Heiskanen for example. He makes 8.5 mil. Hes probably worth 8.5 mil - 70% of the time. 15% of the time hes probably a 6.5 mil dman. 15% of the time hes a 9mil+ player. The percentages are probably off a bit, as I dont watch enough Dallas games to know for sure. My point is that Heiskanen is playing his worth consistently.

If you take Nurse. Hes probably a 9 mil - 15% of the time. Hes probably a 7 mil dman 70% of the time. And hes probably a 5 mil dman 15% of the time. And I feel generous because I think his range is much wider than that. Occasionally he has sub 3 million dollar dman games.

Its actually a quite an easy summary. Hes a good player. But his contract his bad.

And the contract is not going to change. The Oilers have hitched their wagon to a homegrown defenseman and their fortunes are tied to it. They absolutely need to build up the quality of defense corp around Nurse to reduce his ice-time and hopefully mitigate his instinct to do too much. I've long felt Nurse would best help this team and current weak d-corp by focusing his game to disciplined, hard own zone shutdown defending.

The err... million dollar question will be if Nurse can calm his game and impulse to attempt more to 'help' this team with better quality veteran defender(s) added to improve this area of weakness.

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

I think he is around a 7 mil defenseman. His play isnt consistent enough to be paid more.

To his credit, he does play a ton of minutes and he plays against tough competition.

He is just a high event player. I dont think you want that type of dman being the anchor to your defense. That being said, I dont know how much choice the Oilers have. The defense would be way worse without him. At the same time when you are paying him 9.25 mil a year, it takes away money that could be used to fill in the defense better. Its a double edged sword. They need to find a partner who is basically a defensive stud to help him out.

If you take Heiskanen for example. He makes 8.5 mil. Hes probably worth 8.5 mil - 70% of the time. 15% of the time hes probably a 6.5 mil dman. 15% of the time hes a 9mil+ player. The percentages are probably off a bit, as I dont watch enough Dallas games to know for sure. My point is that Heiskanen is playing his worth consistently.

If you take Nurse. Hes probably a 9 mil - 15% of the time. Hes probably a 7 mil dman 70% of the time. And hes probably a 5 mil dman 15% of the time. And I feel generous because I think his range is much wider than that. Occasionally he has sub 3 million dollar dman games.

Its actually a quite an easy summary. Hes a good player. But his contract his bad.

I agree with everything here. I also agree with Craig Button about him having to do too much which is what results in some of these games where he's pulling a Nikita Nikitin cosplay. Like this player literally set a NHL record for deployment difficulty, and to the point where the record is probably unbreakable considering no player should ever lead the league in non-PP ice time and QoC in the same season, ever. He has to do that b/c we haven't dressed a single NHL caliber 2nd pair LHD since Klefbom retired.

And the contract is not going to change. The Oilers have hitched their wagon to a homegrown defenseman and their fortunes are tied to it. They absolutely need to build up the quality of defense corp around Nurse to reduce his ice-time and hopefully mitigate his instinct to do too much. I've long felt Nurse would best help this team and current weak d-corp by focusing his game to disciplined, hard own zone shutdown defending.

The err... million dollar question will be if Nurse can calm his game and impulse to attempt more to 'help' this team with better quality veteran defender(s) added to improve this area of weakness.

I think it will. Much more difficult to play a calm/safe game when you're playing vs Panarin/Kucherov/Tkachuk tier players every shift. You have to take risks against those kinds of players or else they burn you.

 

[unicornBLOOD]

no doubt, as of late, his play has been inconsistent. He is not playing like a #1 D right now, and he is definitely not playing like a D who makes 9.25 per.

My question for everyone here is, let's say he would of been a UFA this past summer, how much would of he of got in an open market? I still say that some team, probably more than 1, would of offered 8 million per plus. He definitely picked a great time to have a big season at the right time, he got the max money he could of ever expected.

It was the perfect storm for Nurse...

- was the best D on a fairly weak Oiler D core for the last 5 years or so.
- he kept outperforming each contract that he got.
- due to the Oiler cap constraints, he kept signing short term deals, and avoided the long term/discount type deal (not his choice).
- became eligible for his extension after a huge season.
- other D who had similar stats that season signed for similar term and money.

It wasn't his fault, he just kept signing the deals that they put in front of him. I still feel that he's the Oilers best D, and he needs to clean up his play a bit, because this team depends on him, as much as any other player on the team. Contract aside, Nurse is very important to this team's success.

 

[Stoneman89]

Still have no idea as to what the hell he was thinking on that Tkachuk goal. Not only does he do a weird crouch to stop the puck, but then sits back and watches Tkachuk take not one but two whacks at it from close range. But it encapsulates Nurse in a nutshell, with him making head scratching plays nearly every game. It is worrying that both he and Ceci (who himself is having a tough time of it this year) give up clear possession of the puck in their own end several times a game with barely forced errors. The book seems to be out on the Oiler defence, that even a modicum of pressure will give you the puck. And it still drives me crazy with the lack of physical play in his own end, except after the whistle in most cases.

Again, a pretty good dman, but not worth anywhere close to his massive 9.25 mill contract, that I fear we will live to regret in the near future and down the road.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Very good Nurse discussion on Rishaug podcast 37 minute mark. In particular Jason Strudwick, once again giving insight from a guy who's played the position at apex level (and why he should be hired to bring credibility for this team's radio colour commentary haha).

Notable is the impression this team needs a #1 D complement to Nurse, a player type who is an elite puck mover to more quickly and efficiently feed its super elite forwards while Nurse focuses on shutdown aspects of a true top pairing. Might explain the John Klingberg rumours that floated around in summer.

Worth a listen!

 

[McDNicks17]

Very good Nurse discussion on Rishaug podcast 37 minute mark. In particular Jason Strudwick, once again giving insight from a guy who's played the position at apex level (and why he should be hired to bring credibility for this team's radio colour commentary haha).

Notable is the impression this team needs a #1 D complement to Nurse, a player type who is an elite puck mover to more quickly and efficiently feed its super elite forwards while Nurse focuses on shutdown aspects of a true top pairing. Might explain the John Klingberg rumours that floated around in summer.

Worth a listen!

That sounds really silly to me.

Nurse's transition game is his main strength. He's never resembled anything close to a shutdown defenseman. Why would you try to turn him into one?

They'd be far better off getting a legit defensive top pairing guy to pair with Nurse to let him focus on puck-moving instead of having to do everything for the entire D core.