Confirmed with Link: DAL trades Chiasson/Guptill/Paul/2nd R to OTT for Spezza/L Karlsson

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

Interesting but we tend to forget that Nil may want to wait to resign him, just to see he is as advertised. If, mid season, he sucks due to age, doesn't fit as well as hoped (a la D Roy) gets injured, etc., (which is a concern) he might be worth $4M instead of $6 or whatever.

If we sign him now, its full value no matter how he works out. We need his $7M cap value lowered to make the big D move, even if we are actually only paying him $4M. At least, if Cole, Horcoff, and Gonchar and Peverly are still on the books at almost $16M, but if not all moved, that extra $3M (or whatever less we can sign him for) might help.

Any idea what Spezz would go for on the open market? Stastney got $7M with the hometown discount, but is 3-4 years younger.

 

[glovesave_35]

Interesting but we tend to forget that Nil may want to wait to resign him, just to see he is as advertised.

He's not waiting. He said in the press conference that he's already had talks with Spezza's agent and that he'd like to get something done. He's going to give Spezza and the family time to get moved and settled before they really get down to hammering out a deal.

Still might not happen at all but based on everything said by both parties I find it hard to believe. The only real question is how much money and for how long.

 

[Stars99Lobo37]

I'd be pretty shocked if Spezza didn't get re-signed after listening to Nill and seeing Spezza at the presser.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

And Nil says hes happy with his young D, too.

Not saying anything nefarious is going on, but Spezza's value probably was highest when controlling things with his NTC. As usual, probably smart for Nil to wait to sign him. IF he starts negotiations in a month, then its what he says. If it drags on into the season a bit, then maybe he wanted to see him mesh with the team to determine what he thought his value is.

 

[BigG44]

Straight from Nill's mouth he already reached out to Spezza's agent. Spezza ... IMO ... rightfully so was non committal about signing a contract early in his first interviews, and he's just flat out not talking about it now.

There's no need for him to get anything done immediately, and he said in some of the interviews on July 1st that he wanted to see how he fit in.

Everyone seems to think Nill says one thing and means another for whatever reason, but up to this point in 14 months everything he's said he was going to do ... he's done. There was no GM speak or misdirection up to this point.

If it was only the local fans being paranoid I'd blame it on JJ and the Cowboys.

 

[glovesave_35]

And Nil says hes happy with his young D, too.

Not saying anything nefarious is going on, but Spezza's value probably was highest when controlling things with his NTC.

Sure seems that way.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

Sure seems that way.

No, not really.

You wouldn't expect a hockey exec to tip his hand at future trade/UFA plans. That said, I think hockey folks are more open than in other sports, and agree he seems to speak the truth in an open fashion.

Still, while he may or may not be perfectly happy with his D prospects, or feel stuck with it, all things considered, he is going to be positive about the roster where it is, full well knowing that if an upgrade becomes available for the right price (i.e. Subban or Weber) he will make a move.

Ditto with Spezza signing. He obviously wanted him, he is a great player, and its a win-win for everyone. But there is still the win-lose scenario of needing to spend the least of TG money to save it for other possible moves. And JS obviously wants as much as possible in what is likely his last big contract. I just think he felt (and maybe Spezza does, too) that it is a small advantage to wait until later to sign him.
At the same time, its all bunny rabbits and rainbows at the press conference.

The truth is somewhere in between and encompasses all parts of the above. Just part of being a classy guy in a classy organization. The man hasn't made too many wrong moves.

 

[BigG44]

Still, while he may or may not be perfectly happy with his D prospects, or feel stuck with it, all things considered, he is going to be positive about the roster where it is, full well knowing that if an upgrade becomes available for the right price (i.e. Subban or Weber) he will make a move.

This completely contradicts the way he handled the 2C situation. I'm only pointing this out because it's not the first time someone has made this point.

IMO you guys are projecting your issue with a young defense onto Nill and trying to make up a story that he's putting on a strong face and just pretending to be happy. I agree that's a common theme in sports ... but nothing Nill has done to this point would suggest that's what he does.

He's the issue ... why didn't he save face and pretend to be happy with the 2C? If you could explain that I might buy into this theory more.

Here are the facts:

1. He identified a big bodied number one defender and right shot D as a need.

2. He identified a 2C as a need.

3. He stated we will get a 2C this year. That's priority number 1.

4. He's consistently said the D he wants is not available and they're sticking with what they have.

5. He got the 2C in a pretty big move just like he said he was going to do.

If he is not going to be honest about being happy to stick with our current D, why in the hell would he risk not also tapping the breaks on the 2C? Him getting his guy was no slam dunk. He had to get lucky the Kesler and Stastny situation went the way they did. There's no way you get Spezza that cheap if either Anaheim or STL fail .... which wasn't a slam dunk either. Chicago easily could have ended up with Kesler.

The answer to me is simple. Until he proves me wrong ... he says what he means. If he missed out on a 2C ... He'd have owned up to missing. If he thought this team needed a 3 or 4 ceiling D in free agency ... he would have said it.

If there was a D he felt was a legitimate Top pair D available ... he do everything to get him. He's already said that.

I actually would love for him to go back on his word at this point. It seems pretty reasonable to me to swap out Gonchar with a young reclamation project. Of course I'm not the one that has to see Gonchar to another NHL team.

What would be awesome though is to see a guy like McBain or Del Zotto get desperate and take a two way deal.

You have room in Austin. Look what it did for Brennan in Toronto.

 

[MetalGodAOD*]

Agreed on all fronts BigG. People trying to say Nill is speaking out of one side of his mouth are just being hopeful.

 

[BigG44]

Agreed on all fronts BigG. People trying to say Nill is speaking out of one side of his mouth are just being hopeful.

Honestly ... I'm surprised he's not getting celebrated for kind of being a bad ass rather than question if he's being honest.

Ignore how cool the player his ... Nill nutted up and said we'll handle 2C this summer ... long before he had any certainty it could end as well as it did. Dude delivered ... now the realist in me knows that the reason he's more comfortable making that claim is because options existed .... several. It's still pretty refreshing to see an up front guy.

We as fans aren't idiots ... it's not hard to pick up on weaknesses regardless of what a team says. The other 29 teams are smarter than we are .... well .... let's say at least most of them are :wink: ... and they identify the same thing. Being deceptive about what you're trying to add doesn't fool anyone ... it's just some old school BS thinking you're tricking anyone.

The situation on D is extremely simple. You either agree the kids are a better risk than a free agent contract or you don't. I wouldn't say no to Stralman's contract. I'm actually pretty shocked at how reasonable it is considering some of the contracts signed. I don't know given the choice of TB vs. DAL you have a legitimate shot at him. Easier conference on travel and path to finals. Regardless ... I know he'll never be a top pair. If Nill wants to gamble on the upside of the younger D ... I'm pretty interested in seeing how it plays out.

 

[glovesave_35]

If Nill wants to gamble on the upside of the younger D ... I'm pretty interested in seeing how it plays out.

This is where I'm at. I would have liked Ehrhoff but nobody else really moved the dial so much that I thought "damn, he would have been awesome". Training camp is going to be set up for some great competition. I think if anything happens with Gonchar it's going to be around camp time, not now. I'm just excited about what the next 1-2 years is going to bring that I can't be negative in any significant way.

 

[oconnor9sean]

We just got a Spezza-giggle on ESPN radio with Cowlishaw

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

We as fans aren't idiots ... it's not hard to pick up on weaknesses regardless of what a team says. The other 29 teams are smarter than we are .... well .... let's say at least most of them are :wink: ... and they identify the same thing. Being deceptive about what you're trying to add doesn't fool anyone ... it's just some old school BS thinking you're tricking anyone.

The situation on D is extremely simple. You either agree the kids are a better risk than a free agent contract or you don't........... If Nill wants to gamble on the upside of the younger D ... I'm pretty interested in seeing how it plays out.

Hey, I agree with the above parts of your quote, other than I don't see teams tipping their hand to each other at the draft table or in trades. Yes, everyone knew a half dozen teams looking for a center, and for that matter, right handed D. But, there is still some room for deflection and misdirection as to whether we were higher on Thornton or Spezz, for example. Loose lips sink ships.

Not saying he is being dishonest, just part of him being shrewd.

And, as I have said, Hockey types do seem more open than others. But there is just a difference in saying "we really wanted a No. 1 D, and we will stick with our sucky D because we couldn't get any better this year" and putting the positive spin on it. Again, it is just good biz to never put your players down in public, build them up when you can. And, Nil is a good GM.

As to other teams being just as smart...well in general I think so, but when you see the chronic strugglers there has to be a reason. I'm thinking of Toronto, rather than cap strapped or bank owned teams like the Stars were. There is no reason other than a culture of stupidity to keep the Leafs down, and somehow, they manage it!

 

[Bkennedy*]

Bingo. Nill isn't stupid. He's smarter than every single one of us, by a large margin.

He knows the defense is lacking, everyone knows that. There's a difference between saying "we need a #2C" and "we need to improve the defense because we suck."

He knows it's lacking, it would just be stupid to show your players that you have no faith in them, he's specifically made it clear he'd pick up a stud d-man if the right piece is available, you've just gotta find it.

 

[NukeJukes43]

Bingo. Nill isn't stupid. He's smarter than every single one of us, by a large margin.

He knows the defense is lacking, everyone knows that. There's a difference between saying "we need a #2C" and "we need to improve the defense because we suck."

He knows it's lacking, it would just be stupid to show your players that you have no faith in them, he's specifically made it clear he'd pick up a stud d-man if the right piece is available, you've just gotta find it.

Speak for yourself, man. Nill made all the moves I wanted him to (excluding Eaves) and that basically makes me as smart as a GM. Hell it really warrants you guys all coming together and nominating me to take over the Winnipeg Jets. Let's be real, I'm their best option at this point.

 

[glovesave_35]

Speak for yourself, man. Nill made all the moves I wanted him to (excluding Eaves) and that basically makes me as smart as a GM. Hell it really warrants you guys all coming together and nominating me to take over the Winnipeg Jets. Let's be real, I'm their best option at this point.

We can't allow another competitive team in the division.

 

[Dundalis]

Hey, I agree with the above parts of your quote, other than I don't see teams tipping their hand to each other at the draft table or in trades. Yes, everyone knew a half dozen teams looking for a center, and for that matter, right handed D. But, there is still some room for deflection and misdirection as to whether we were higher on Thornton or Spezz, for example. Loose lips sink ships.

Not saying he is being dishonest, just part of him being shrewd.

And, as I have said, Hockey types do seem more open than others. But there is just a difference in saying "we really wanted a No. 1 D, and we will stick with our sucky D because we couldn't get any better this year" and putting the positive spin on it. Again, it is just good biz to never put your players down in public, build them up when you can. And, Nil is a good GM.

As to other teams being just as smart...well in general I think so, but when you see the chronic strugglers there has to be a reason. I'm thinking of Toronto, rather than cap strapped or bank owned teams like the Stars were. There is no reason other than a culture of stupidity to keep the Leafs down, and somehow, they manage it!

Except for the fact that if Nill really did/does think the D sucks, then there were plenty of options out there to improve it.

What is blatantly obvious to me is that Nill is holding out purely for a top pairing quality defenseman. You do not hold out for a top pairing quality player if you think your D sucks. You go and get the best of whatever is available and there were very solid dmen to be had.

This team has suffered by obviously not having any top pairing quality dmen, but also by not having a player who was really dependable defensively, with decent size. It should have been Dillon, but he was a disappointment to me. Not particularly good positionally, and doesn't use his size anywhere near as much as he should. He's still young, and hopefully improves, but I don't think the hockey sense is particularly high.

We do though have plenty of dmen who are second and third pairing quality. The biggest difference to shoring up the goals against column initially may not come from finding that true #1 or #2, but finding someone really dependable and physically imposing defensively. Too many midgets/soft players on D is more the issue, than lack of a top pairing guy. Hopefully Nemeth is the one, with Oleksiak not far behind.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

Agree with the above. Of the options out there, I don't think, and I don't think Nil thought, that a Matt Niskanen to name one, was a value upgrade at salary and term the Caps are paying him.

With who was available, and the prices commanded, even if play was 10% better, it was no value at 800% of say a Nemeth, Oleksiak, or Klingberg salary.

If somehow Weber or Subban came available, I think Nil would be interested. Dion P at 7 x 7M may be close, but not quite worth acquiring. I can't think of anyone out there who might reasonably be available that provides value compared to the potential of our soon to be ready NHL D. We just have to expect a little rough spots over the next few years.

That said, it can't be much worse than some stretches last year, and we should have a bit more firepower to overcome some rookie mistakes. If last year proved anything, its that having a lineup of youngsters doesn't drop play off the map as much as feared. We traded decent scoring vets like Loui, Jagr, Ryder, Roy, Morrow, etc. and still came away 10th in scoring (albeit adding Seguin)

We have our 3 top 30 scorers now, and a lot of "score by committee" 15-20 goal guys like the Eakin line, Nish, Cole, and maybe Scevior and a few rookies. Seems like the Devils got by with great D and a lot of medium scoring forwards. Overall, given injuries happen, probably better to have a lot of those, rather than rely on one superstar like Ovi......

 

[Rune Forumwalker]

Except for the fact that if Nill really did/does think the D sucks, then there were plenty of options out there to improve it.

There really isn't. Or rather not to the extent that it wouldn't be questionable if it was worth it to make that move.

 

[piqued]

Trading one of Goligoski/Daley (now that they've rebuilt their value) and signing Stralman I think would've been a reasonable move that would've signified that the status quo is not OK, rebalanced the handedness equation, made the team younger, and not blocked the prospects.

 

[Rune Forumwalker]

It would have been rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. Unless the return was similar to a Spezza or Seguin.

 

[txomisc]

It would have been rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. Unless the return was similar to a Spezza or Seguin.

except theres a legitimate case to be made for the advantage of having more balance on d

 

[MetalGodAOD*]

Yea that would have been a clear upgrade and a return on assets, as well as making the D stronger. No way that's re-arranging.

 

[beepeearr]

except theres a legitimate case to be made for the advantage of having more balance on d

Maybe they see it as they think they have found a pairing that works really well together and breaking that up and bringing in an unknown could lead to them having to start the search all over again. plus they are getting to a point where they will need to start making decisions on which young D to keep and which they will need to move out.

 

[Rune Forumwalker]

It is bringing out a top 4 D for another top 4 D to only change handedness. That isn't worth the upgrade. Now if it was signing Stralman and dumping Gonchar, I'd be all over that. You keep your Top 4 and add another guy that is Top 4 quality. You still need that top pairing guy, but you have more quality depth.