News Article: Custance On Trading Green - Don't Count On a First Rounder

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

I'd take a single third before I just let his contract expire, 2 seconds would be okay.

Same here need to get something for him, A 3rd is better then keeping him and letting him walk for nothing.

 

[ShelbyZ]

I honestly don't see the big deal with Holland not talking to Green about the NTC/potential trade yet....

Legwand gets silent treatment as NHL trade deadline approaches | Nashville Post

David Legwand has the final say in whether or not he will be traded within the next eight days. As of late last week, though, the veteran center said he had not heard word one from anyone in Nashville Predators management regarding his future, either with this team or any other.

Looks like Nashville waited until right up to the deadline to discuss a NTC waive/trade to move him when they did. I can't seem to remember, do you think waiting so long affected what kind of return they got for him?

 

[Henkka]

I honestly don't see the big deal with Holland not talking to Green about the NTC/potential trade yet....

Yeah, just common sense. You keep the things quiet and let the player concentrate on current season. Trade deadline is still over a month away.

The Market will rise up on the last week before the deadline. Then it's time to talk for the player, when there's real deals on the table.

***

Currently, League has so much parity, that many teams can't be sure about their playoff proabilities until the last days before the deadline. "Hedman" can be injured, or some team can go to losing streak. Would be absolutely stupid to buy a rental now, if some accidental thing will hurt your chances and you can't surely get in.

Contenders have to put as much wins in the bank, and have almost 99% of probability, until they have willingness to throw their own 1st rounder out.

Caps (Shattenkirk), Ducks (Eaves as conditional) and Minnesota (Hanzal) were in great positions at last season deadline standings, and they did trade their 1st rounders. They had highest playoff-probabilities which did lower the risk to lose a lottery pick, if something bad happens after the trade deadline.

***

I could easily see Green traded for conditional 1st, with playoff spot protection. With some clause, where the 1st becames 2x 2nd, if the teams doesn't get to the playoffs or will get lost on 1st round.

 

[ShelbyZ]

I doubt it. I think you find out if your player is ready to move. You found out where he'd be willing to go.

You don't negotiate a deal and hope your player is OK with it.
It shows a lack of respect for the contract you signed and the player who signed it.
And it shows a lack of respect for the guy you are negotiating a trade with.

It isn't like he's asking Nielsen/Helm/Abdelkader/Dekeyser/etc. to waive their clauses to go somewhere where they'll be living/playing/potentially moving their families for years to come...

Green will go to a team where he'll play from 2/26 until sometime in April, May or maybe even early June, and then he gets to pick from 31 potential new (or old) addresses in July... The only way he doesn't waive is if he really has his heart set on some early April tee times, or the team willing to trade for him has some coach/player he doesn't want to work with. Otherwise, I'm sure he'll appreciate the opportunity to play for a Cup and pad his resume in the playoffs, potentially increasing the dollars and term that get thrown at his agent in late June...

The part about "lack of respect for the guy you are negotiating a trade with" is hilarious. Bryan Murray laid out a trade with Edmonton and then had to go get Dany Heatley's blessing. I doubt that stemmed from a conversation that started with "Gee Dany, how would you like to play in Edmonton?"

Hollands likely going to field numerous calls and offers for Green days before the deadline. I doubt he'd hang up the phone because poor Mikey might not like it...

 

[rhef3]

Realistically, aside from mike green, who else do you think holland will trade off for picks ?

daley ?
nyquist ?
mrazek ?
booth ?

you would have to think that come closer to the deadline he will ship off a few more players for 18/19 draft other than green.

 

[ShelbyZ]

Realistically, aside from mike green, who else do you think holland will trade off for picks ?

daley ?
nyquist ?
mrazek ?
booth ?

you would have to think that come closer to the deadline he will ship off a few more players for 18/19 draft other than green.

Daley - Not likely. He has an NTC, and he's affordable insurance for when they likely don't have Green next season and maybe see the LTIRetirement of Kronwall
Nyquist - Not likely. Has an NTC as well. Probably gets moved at next seasons deadline
Mrazek - Likely. Probably fetches a mid rounder
Booth - I'm sure they'd be open to trade him if other teams are interested. Probably doesn't bring more than a 6th/7th/conditional.

 

[Redder Winger]

Howard -

 

[ShelbyZ]

I do agree with the premise that Green is a "poor mans Shattenkirk". I don't think any team interested will look at Green like teams viewed Shatty last season. With a contender, Green is probably added as a complimentary sheltered #4/5 PP specialist like he was with Trotz his last year in DC.

That being said, Brendan Smith returned a 2nd AND a 3rd in the same deadline... It's clear as day that Mike Green is a VERY RICH man's Brendan Smith, so a 1st is likely attainable.

 

[Henkka]

- Green, for 1st or conditional 1st
- Nyquist, for a 2nd + prospect. Totally possible, guy has been hot currently, would pull the trigger now, nothing guarentees a good season for next season. Retent some bit if the caphit is problem for a guye
- Booth, for a 7th
- Mrazek trade could work at draft. I don't see a deadline deal, because his RFA situation is problematic. Goalies are better to be suffled at summer.

Don't see any other moves at this time.

 

[ShelbyZ]

- Mrazek trade could work at draft. I don't see a deadline deal, because his RFA situation is problematic. Goalies are better to be suffled at summer.

I doubt any team bites at the draft unless it's for something like a conditional 7th and that team can get him to agree to an affordable extension before he's due his $4.15M qualifying offer the very next Monday after the draft.

Otherwise, any team interested at the draft can wait a few days and sign him as a UFA for $800k and not have to give anything up to the Wings.

The Red Wings best bet is to float Mrazek (with 50% retained) at the TDL as an insurance policy to a playoff bound team that maybe has some question marks behind their starter. Tampa is a good example since Budaj's been out long term and hasn't put up great numbers, and Domingue's NHL ability is still questionable.

With Mrazek's likely untendered $4.15M QO looming, every NHL GM is probably looking at him like they do an upcoming UFA.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Realistically, aside from mike green, who else do you think holland will trade off for picks ?

daley ?
nyquist ?
mrazek ?
booth ?

you would have to think that come closer to the deadline he will ship off a few more players for 18/19 draft other than green.

Daley has a full NMC until the TDL 2019 don't see him going anywhere Nyquist has a full NTC for the 2018/2019 season doubt Holland ask him to move it. So basically that leaves Green, Mrazek and Booth as potential trades.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

- Green, for 1st or conditional 1st
- Nyquist, for a 2nd + prospect. Totally possible, guy has been hot currently, would pull the trigger now, nothing guarentees a good season for next season. Retent some bit if the caphit is problem for a guye
- Booth, for a 7th
- Mrazek trade could work at draft. I don't see a deadline deal, because his RFA situation is problematic. Goalies are better to be suffled at summer.

Don't see any other moves at this time.

Nyquist has a full NTC so he would need to agree to any move, And i just don't see that happening this year. I definitely see him as a TDL move in 2019 if we're out of the playoff race. But not now.

 

[kliq]

I've watched Hollland handle the press for 20 years now.

I disagree on two things.
1) Holland is surprisingly forthright.
Watch his year-end press conferences. He's super open about his thought process and his plans if you take the time to listne.

2) If he'd talked to Green, he wouldn't lie to the press and say he hadn't.
He'd deflect and change the subject.

There's no advantage to lying.
It doesn't give him more trade leverage.
It doesn't sell more tickets. There aren't any Red Wings fans sitting at home and getting ready to burn their season ticket plan if the Red Wings trade Mike Green

That's cool that you have watched Holland for 20 years now, but on message boards like these, that applies to most. Does to me.

Nobody said this, no need to go to an extreme. It's pretty clear to me that when Holland speaks to the media, the narrative is almost always "we are trying to make the playoffs", I believe he does this to appease season ticket holders. I totally understand that this is stupid to you, but there are many many out there that want to hear this. It's business.

The only time he will even talk about "re-building" is when its trade deadline time where he will say something along the lines of "based on our assessment of where this team is, we decided that this was the best course of action for our team moving forward."

Being that we are only in January, I just don't see Holland talking "we are going to be sellers" yet because I believe that the narrative he wants out there is that they are trying to make the playoffs. Not saying I agree with this, not saying I don't, I am saying what I think he is trying to put out there.

 

[kliq]

Daley has a full NMC until the TDL 2019 don't see him going anywhere Nyquist has a full NTC for the 2018/2019 season doubt Holland ask him to move it. So basically that leaves Green, Mrazek and Booth as potential trades.

You're probably right, though I'm sure if a legit contender made a good offer for Nyquist he would waive it.

I think NMC/NTC's are easier to deal with then some think. What they do, is they protect a player from being moved to a team they don't want to go to, or waking up one day and seeing you have been traded. Outside of Joe Thornton and Dion Pheneuf at the expansion draft, I can't remember a player refusing to move anywhere.

It definitely complicates things, but when you are a team like the Wings sitting at the bottom of the standings, I don't think its a hard sell to convince a player to go to a contender. I'm sure it's different with every player, but I dont think its the massive hurdle some make it out to be.

 

[Heaton]

Some team will get desperate and trade a bit for Green. But a 1st is probably the max of his worth.

 

[Redder Winger]

Some team will get desperate and trade a bit for Green. But a 1st is probably the max of his worth.

But will he accept a trade to that team?

 

[kliq]

But will he accept a trade to that team?

If you were Green and a legit contender wanted to trade for you, would you prefer to go to the contender? Or stay on the Wings?

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

You don’t ask Mike Green about waiving his NTC until you have the traces of a trade that he might have to waive it for.

What the hell does having that conversation accomplish in mid-January when nobody is trading for rentals?

It signals clear as day that you’re selling and that you’re desperate to sell. That’s a pretty weak position to put yourself in. Even if it is the most prudent path to deal him so you don’t lose him for nothing, you don’t want to be showing the world that youre slapping on the sandwich board and dancing to drum up interest before they’re interested. Jumping up and down that you have a Mike Green for sale when nobody is interested at this time in trading for him does nothing but hurt your negotiating position.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

But will he accept a trade to that team?

That is not a bit of information that is very helpful to you in January if teams are not inquiring on Green till closer to the TDL.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Do NTCs ever end up mattering for TDL rentals, at least non-superstars? Going from out of the playoffs to playoffs or even contender is something 90% of players would happily do. Not like we’re talking about trading a long-term deal to Arizona.

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

Gus Nyquist isn’t going anywhere. Relax

 

[jkutswings]

Gus Nyquist isn’t going anywhere. Relax

Despite the NTC's running rampant these days, I'd have teams like St Louis, Nashville, Minnesota, and maybe even Edmonton on my speed dial, evaluating the market for either Gus or Tatar. Doesn't hurt a thing to do your homework, and try to find a great offer out there over the next several weeks.

 

[SpookyTsuki]

Unless the signs point green not wanting to stay. There’s no reason to trade him for a late second round pick.

1st round pick or high level prospect.

You can get a late second just for his rights if a team wanted him.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

Unless the signs point green not wanting to stay. There’s no reason to trade him for a late second round pick.

1st round pick or high level prospect.

You can get a late second just for his rights if a team wanted him.

Ehhhh id rather move him now and drop 1-3 points in the standings.

 

[SpookyTsuki]

Ehhhh id rather move him now and drop 1-3 points in the standings.

Gonna lose a lot more points then that if you move him now.