News Article: COVID 19 POSITIVITY THREAD: Useful links, hopeful news etc

[Gotaf7]

I suppose when the chief provincial public health officer can be overruled by a teacher, we end up with bullshit like this. Absolutely embarrassing to see.

Ya, it really is Roussin has become a puppet.

 

[Positive]

Wonderful. Blatant Disregard: Winnipeg Blues, Freeze Hold Practices Against All Public Health Orders

 

[KingBogo]

My point about transmission in schools is that unless there is testing of school contacts (with and without symptoms), it's impossible to know whether there is transmission in schools. I think it is highly unlikely that there isn't any transmission in relation to school settings, but I also think that the testing protocols might not be focused on trying to identify within-school transmission. I don't think that's an unreasonable assumption, since there is very clear indication that keeping schools open is a top policy priority. Churches have been shut down, and I don't think we've heard about church-based clusters.

I think that it would have been prudent to bring in some modest restrictions (indoor mask mandate, and perhaps some limits on restaurant / bar capacity, etc.) when schools were re-opening. It would have been rational, and perhaps acceptable as most would want to give schools the best chance at staying open for as long as possible. The data showed very clearly in mid-October that there was a surge coming in Manitoba (with rising case counts and rapidly rising test positivity). A short, sharp containment at that time would have pushed the numbers down much more quickly, and perhaps avoided a lot of the transmission that occurred subsequently in hospitals and other institutions. As I recall, the surge in August was tied to a number of industries / plants, so not as much of an indicator of broader community transmission.

But it's pretty obvious just from the test positivity that things were getting out of control in mid-October.

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My experience with high schools is they have been handling COVID much better then most of society. My kid is in grade 9 and is cohort is divided in 2 and attend on alternating days and have no contact with any other grades who all enter the school in different doors and are segregated to different sections of the school. Masks have been mandatory since day 1 as has been social distancing. What happens outside of school is a different matter and would probably be worse if kids couldn’t socialize in school. This is then based against teenagers especially boys do really shitty with remote only learning. You have a lot of parents worried their kid will fall too far behind and off track while they are off working. I know a lot of parents who would risk their family getting COVID over having their kids miss a second year of school and what implications that will have in their lives.

 

[flyingkiwi]

The double standard in closure of retail stores, whereby small and mid size retailers are forced to close while WalMart, Costco and Superstore can remain open and sell their full range of products is a complete joke.

Same thing happened here and all the small French retailers dug their heels in, so the government forced the hypermarchés to close their non-essential aisles. But so far interpretation and enforcement are pretty loose.

Enforcement in general is pretty loose here... My landlords in the rest of my building have had two big parties in as many weeks since lockdown started. Are you guys in Canada going into lockdown again too?

 

[Gotaf7]

Same thing happened here and all the small French retailers dug their heels in, so the government forced the hypermarchés to close their non-essential aisles. But so far interpretation and enforcement are pretty loose.

Enforcement in general is pretty loose here... My landlords in the rest of my building have had two big parties in as many weeks since lockdown started. Are you guys in Canada going into lockdown again too?

Manitoba enters a loose lockdown for 2 incubation cycles starting tommorow.

 

[ps241]

My experience with high schools is they have been handling COVID much better then most of society. My kid is in grade 9 and is cohort is divided in 2 and attend on alternating days and have no contact with any other grades who all enter the school in different doors and are segregated to different sections of the school. Masks have been mandatory since day 1 as has been social distancing. What happens outside of school is a different matter and would probably be worse if kids couldn’t socialize in school. This is then based against teenagers especially boys do really shitty with remote only learning. You have a lot of parents worried their kid will fall too far behind and off track while they are off working. I know a lot of parents who would risk their family getting COVID over having their kids miss a second year of school and what implications that will have in their lives.

Talking to a few educators and apparently last spring didn’t go very well results wise with way too many kids. The process was way too hit and miss.

I am comfortable that our kids school is managing it well enough at this point with the cohort system. There have been three separate cases (none happened in the school). In the last instance everyone in the class was asked to isolate. So far it’s working fine and there is zero reason to close the entire school. That could change but for now they should just carry on.

 

[ps241]

The double standard in closure of retail stores, whereby small and mid size retailers are forced to close while WalMart, Costco and Superstore can remain open and sell their full range of products is a complete joke.

It makes zero sense in light of the regulations retailers are required to follow, most importantly limits on capacity, and in fact is very likely completely counterproductive. Let’s take more people from a wider catchement area and drive them all into centralized locations. Makes perfect sense.

Retail stores have not been identified as main sources of transmission at any point. There has been literally zero communication from the government regarding concerns over unchecked community spread originating in retail stores.

The lack of resources, direction and commitment to properly tracing sources of transmission have been a complete joke. The province should have been in a far better position to react to rising cases far sooner than this and had the ability to more closely identify where the sources were. That way closures and restrictions to “short circuit” transmission could have actually been more direct as opposed to pissing in the wind.

I get sacrifices have to be made, retailers have made significant ones. This did not need to happen had this government had the slightest bit of foresight and initiative.

I struggle with that double standard too. A good friend of mine has a large salon with significant seasonal retail inventory. If they want to close hair nails etc ok but why did they have to shut her retail store 6 weeks before Christmas? They are allowing Costco, Superstore, Walmart to sell most of the same category items with less regulations enforced in their locations? At lease say groceries only so it’s coherent. Why is it dangerous to shop for a sweater in The Gap store but not in Walmart?

 

[Jack722]

I struggle with that double standard too. A good friend of mine has a large salon with significant seasonal retail inventory. If they want to close hair nails etc ok but why did they have to shut her retail store 6 weeks before Christmas? They are allowing Costco, Superstore, Walmart to sell most of the same category items with less regulations enforced in their locations? At lease say groceries only so it’s coherent. Why is it dangerous to shop for a sweater in The Gap store but not in Walmart?

I'm having a lot of trouble seeing any intelligence behind anything the province is doing. It really seems like they come up with solutions in meetings the week before they implement them.

8 months to prepare for various scenarios and get infrastructure in place while learning from and sharing information with literally every other city in the world, and still every single new development seems to catch us off guard while our messaging is mixed and confusing.

 

[KingBogo]

Talking to a few educators and apparently last spring didn’t go very well results wise with way too many kids. The process was way too hit and miss.

I am comfortable that our kids school is managing it well enough at this point with the cohort system. There have been three separate cases (none happened in the school). In the last instance everyone in the class was asked to isolate. So far it’s working fine and there is zero reason to close the entire school. That could change but for now they should just carry on.

I think it is an important point that transmission among teenagers isn't happening in school where masks and social distancing is strictly enforced it is happening away from school when teenagers are letting their guard down because being with friends and socializing is so important to them. The other day I came home and my kid was in his room with a buddy playing guitar and his excuse was that the rules don't change until Thursday so it was okay.

 

[cheswick]

It seems that the province has walked back the “household only” rule, it is staying as it was no more than 5 people NOT including the people in the household. Once again half measures from this Government.

No they didn't. It was incorrect media interpretation. The message was have nobody over. That remains the message. The public health order allows 5 people to allow for childcare, elderly care etc without writing an over complicated order. Roussin said that on Tuesday. The media loves this stuff and it distracts from the message public health is putting out. Which is, don't associate with people outside your household. Once again, public healths message is don't have anyone over to your house.

 

[Eyeseeing]

No they didn't. It was incorrect media interpretation. The message was have nobody over. That remains the message. The public health order allows 5 people to allow for childcare, elderly care etc without writing an over complicated order. Roussin said that on Tuesday. The media loves this stuff and it distracts from the message public health is putting out. Which is, don't associate with people outside your household. Once again, public healths message is don't have anyone over to your house.

It’s seems hard for so many people to comprehend, but it’s easy to find blame.
Bottom line is and always has been...
be personally responsible.
Personally I believe this virus will run its course in spite of preventive measures.
Hope you all stay well out there.

 

[Jets 31]

The double standard in closure of retail stores, whereby small and mid size retailers are forced to close while WalMart, Costco and Superstore can remain open and sell their full range of products is a complete joke.

It makes zero sense in light of the regulations retailers are required to follow, most importantly limits on capacity, and in fact is very likely completely counterproductive. Let’s take more people from a wider catchement area and drive them all into centralized locations. Makes perfect sense.

Retail stores have not been identified as main sources of transmission at any point. There has been literally zero communication from the government regarding concerns over unchecked community spread originating in retail stores.

The lack of resources, direction and commitment to properly tracing sources of transmission have been a complete joke. The province should have been in a far better position to react to rising cases far sooner than this and had the ability to more closely identify where the sources were. That way closures and restrictions to “short circuit” transmission could have actually been more direct as opposed to pissing in the wind.

I get sacrifices have to be made, retailers have made significant ones. This did not need to happen had this government had the slightest bit of foresight and initiative.

Agreed and i work for Superstore. Half the store is grocery and half general merchandise, they should just rope off the general merchandise side to be fair or allow the smaller stores to be open.

 

[Howard Chuck]

No they didn't. It was incorrect media interpretation. The message was have nobody over. That remains the message. The public health order allows 5 people to allow for childcare, elderly care etc without writing an over complicated order. Roussin said that on Tuesday. The media loves this stuff and it distracts from the message public health is putting out. Which is, don't associate with people outside your household. Once again, public healths message is don't have anyone over to your house.

When you read the actual message, it's very confusing. I don't know why it's so hard to write something in plain language that everyone can easily understand.

• Social contacts must be reduced to your household only. Social gatherings are not permitted, and gatherings of more than 5 people from outside a single household will be subject to fines.

I know what they are trying to say, but I can see how it could be misconstrued.

 

[Howard Chuck]

I struggle with that double standard too. A good friend of mine has a large salon with significant seasonal retail inventory. If they want to close hair nails etc ok but why did they have to shut her retail store 6 weeks before Christmas? They are allowing Costco, Superstore, Walmart to sell most of the same category items with less regulations enforced in their locations? At lease say groceries only so it’s coherent. Why is it dangerous to shop for a sweater in The Gap store but not in Walmart?

As far as things that should be closed or fined, it should be places that are not using proper precautions. One type of business may follow all rules and has never had a case of covid spread, while others are leaking like Pavelec.

Why shut down all of that type of business? A bar has an outbreak? Shut them down and fine them. A clothing store has an outbreak? Shut them down and fine them.

I just don't agree with punishing a wide swath of people because of the actions of others.

 

[Eyeseeing]

When you read the actual message, it's very confusing. I don't know why it's so hard to write something in plain language that everyone can easily understand.

• Social contacts must be reduced to your household only. Social gatherings are not permitted, and gatherings of more than 5 people from outside a single household will be subject to fines.

I know what they are trying to say, but I can see how it could be misconstrued.

Fair enough.
People are wearing out from all kinds of information and misinformation and myths and reversals.

 

[ps241]

As far as things that should be closed or fined, it should be places that are not using proper precautions. One type of business may follow all rules and has never had a case of covid spread, while others are leaking like Pavelec.

Why shut down all of that type of business? A bar has an outbreak? Shut them down and fine them. A clothing store has an outbreak? Shut them down and fine them.

I just don't agree with punishing a wide swath of people because of the actions of others.

I have lived in the eye of the storm on this one but I tend to agree with what you are saying. The Restaurant association wants to have blatant offenders punished heavily but don't want large scale sweeping closures when if statistics don't support the need.

The Ontario government released a report titled "Substantial variation in source of outbreak by PHU" since August 1, reported on October 24th

It was a pie chart style for regions of Toronto, Ottawa, Peel, and York. For the period of August 1st to October 24th Restaurants bars and clubs in Ottawa had 3 cases (or 2% of total cases ) traced back to their category. There was huge backlash and a public outcry in Ottawa to get Restaurants open (with restrictions) so people could get back to work. If there is an establishment that is willfully ignoring guidelines then punish, fine, and or shut the location down where necessary. Same goes for other businesses if people are playing by the rules then they should be able to operate their business unless tracing results dictate otherwise.

In all honesty though once patio season ended guests were slow to return to indoor seating in the prairies. Sales volumes were down and then when code Orange hit they slowed down even more.

 

[Gm0ney]

I am not sure but my way of thinking is that they are not so much worried about the death rate because it is no where near to what they were predicting. I assume it is the hospitalization that is the real issue.

Manitoba has had 9782 total cases so far (Nov 12). 4408 (45%) of those were reported over the last 2 weeks...and the rate of infection shows no sign of plateauing. 2 weeks ago, the previous 7 day average of new cases per day was 255. Monday it was 317. Today it's 372. We were seeing 3 deaths per day on average two weeks ago, now we're at 5.9 deaths per day. Two weeks ago there were 19 people in ICU. Today there are 34.

The overall CFR is 132/9782 = 1.35%. But 4408 of those cases are in the last two weeks and are probably unresolved. That means the CFR for resolved cases in Manitoba is closer to 132/5374 = 2.46%. Maybe it's all explained by this disease ripping through Personal Care Homes. It's worse than expected though I believe. It's

Usually you see a lag between cases and deaths, but Manitoba's death curve is somehow running ahead of the case curve.

Anyway, the best way to turn this around is a hard lockdown...not this half-assed partial restriction tightrope the province is trying to walk. Shut it all down for 2 or 4 weeks. Half-assing might get us to a plateau...but we're running way above our ability to handle this.

 

[angrymnky]

Anyway, the best way to turn this around is a hard lockdown...not this half-assed partial restriction tightrope the province is trying to walk. Shut it all down for 2 or 4 weeks.

Seems to have worked for Australia. Tracked the outbreaks well, limited interstate travel and imposed severe lockdowns when needed. It's not blind luck like winning the lottery.

 

[flyingkiwi]

Yeah, NZ and Australia are chilling now. Couple of leaks showing up at home but that means the borders and tracing systems are doing what they're supposed to do.

What's enforcement of rules like where you guys are?

Here we've got plenty of rules but the cops don't care so everyone is flouting them. Any kind of partial lockdown will only work if there are enough people out there doing checks and enforcing said rules consistently.

 

[cheswick]

As far as things that should be closed or fined, it should be places that are not using proper precautions. One type of business may follow all rules and has never had a case of covid spread, while others are leaking like Pavelec.

Why shut down all of that type of business? A bar has an outbreak? Shut them down and fine them. A clothing store has an outbreak? Shut them down and fine them.

I just don't agree with punishing a wide swath of people because of the actions of others.

The problem with that is they don't know where the spread is occurring. Earlier in the year they successfully used a targeted approach in Brandon because they saw the numbers were all coming from large gatherings. In Winnipeg there is so much community transmission of unknown origin so to keep things under control they feel they have to close the good with the bad.

 

[ps241]

The problem with that is they don't know where the spread is occurring. Earlier in the year they successfully used a targeted approach in Brandon because they saw the numbers were all coming from large gatherings. In Winnipeg there is so much community transmission of unknown origin so to keep things under control they feel they have to close the good with the bad.

Honestly I don't imagine any of this is that easy. No province east of the Maritime's is knocking it out of the park.

 

[Gm0ney]

Honestly I don't imagine any of this is that easy. No province east of the Maritime's is knocking it out of the park.

It's just natural to get complacent. As I've heard it described a few times over the course of the last 8 months, we're just a dry forest and any spark can start a blaze. Atlantic Canada is doing a pretty good job of keeping the sparks to a minimum. A few sparks catching in Manitoba have quickly overwhelmed our limited ability to test and trace.

 

[Gotaf7]

We had our first positive at work, the guy and his wife travelled to Banff last week for a bit of a holiday, both tested positive on Wednesday. He was at work unmasked Monday and Tuesday, expecting it to roar through our plant now especially since one of our owners is a conspiracy theorist and believes COVID is a hoax.

 

[Neuf]

We had our first positive at work, the guy and his wife travelled to Banff last week for a bit of a holiday, both tested positive on Wednesday. He was at work unmasked Monday and Tuesday, expecting it to roar through our plant now especially since one of our owners is a conspiracy theorist and believes COVID is a hoax.

So much wrong with this. Hang in there @Gotaf7

 

[ps241]

We had our first positive at work, the guy and his wife travelled to Banff last week for a bit of a holiday, both tested positive on Wednesday. He was at work unmasked Monday and Tuesday, expecting it to roar through our plant now especially since one of our owners is a conspiracy theorist and believes COVID is a hoax.

There is a person I know that is successful (I really enjoy her company) but told me to with a strait face that Bill Gates has the patent on COVID and that's why its all happening.