OT: Covid-19 (Part 16) Don't Stand So Close To Me edition

[Lshap]

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[Andy]

 

[Per Sjoblom]

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I like your subject changes whenever there is a new thread.

 

[Per Sjoblom]

A few of us were thinking of renting a big ass cottage up up north..like 10-12 rooms and all go quarantine together with some friends and family.
Was a fun idea to entertain at first but probably would have been a catastrophy.

 

[groovejuice]

I like your subject changes whenever there is a new thread.

Lshap has had quite a few years to hone his wit!

 

[peate]

Lshap has had quite a few years to hone his wit!

It's a musician thing.

 

[CrAzYNiNe]

thanks, he’s done a lot of homework for us. It’s what I thought, certainly not reassuring.

 

[Per Sjoblom]

I am sending some wires to Brazil to go out tomorrow and after how many years (Seinfeld proctologist) I finally am seeing the name Assman as a real name. It's Brazil so she has at least 5 first names but the Assman stands out.

 

[Runner77]

I am sending some wires to Brazil to go out tomorrow and after how many years (Seinfeld proctologist) I finally am seeing the name Assman as a real name. It's Brazil so she has at least 5 first names but the Assman stands out.

The original Assman was made famous on the Late Show with Letterman as you probably already know.

 

[waffledave]

@Genesis76

Doubtful you got it in January, since even in the US they do not think it was there before end of Jan, and they had people flying in from Wuhan directly all through January. It's possible but more likely you had the flu. Not exactly sure what you are saying about man-made viruses, SARS-CoV-2 is not a man-made virus.

As for John Ioannidis, yes I know him well, a Greek dude like myself. Very famous for his work poking holes in bad methodology used by scientists. He argues that much of the data we have for this virus is bad, which is not untrue. But he has been facing a lot of backlash for much of his criticisms as of late because, ironically, the studies he is using as evidence are riddled with bad methodology. The Santa Clara study, which was from Stanford, is a big part of his argument and this is a pre-print study that has not been peer reviewed.

Just take a look at the methodology for this study and you will see that it is extremely flawed and would never pass peer review.

Ultimately what we do know is this virus is unknown, we learn more about it every day, we lack a lot of information around immunity (if it exists), long-term effects, and rates of infection. This is a problem globally. What we do know is that it has killed 100's of thousands of people in just a few months and has spread all over the planet, impossible to contain. We do know it has had devastating effects in Italy, Spain and USA, to name a few countries. It is currently the leading cause of daily death in the US, more than car crashes, more than heart disease, more than anything.

I know you'll refute that and claim some conspiracy about Bill Gates and all hospitals lying about their numbers to inflate them, but let's just use real facts, please. The real facts say that nearly 60,000 people have died in the US in barely 3 months. There is nothing you can say that will tell me this is normal. It's far more than the number of deaths that is normal at this time of year.

In the end, given the lack of information, it is completely stupid to start making decisions on public health based on things that are still unknown when the only information we do have is that this is extremely dangerous. No responsible government in the world is going to gamble with the public health. Pretty much nothing else matters as much as this.

As for your last point, let me just say this. Your freedom to go play in the park and build sandcastles does not trump the safety of the public. The government put measures in place and they are to be respected. If you're scared of the cops, don't break the law. You sound like a kid who just discovered his first NWA album.

 

[SOLR]

@Genesis76

Doubtful you got it in January, since even in the US they do not think it was there before end of Jan, and they had people flying in from Wuhan directly all through January. It's possible but more likely you had the flu. Not exactly sure what you are saying about man-made viruses, SARS-CoV-2 is not a man-made virus.

The scientific community isn't clear on this yet, there is a good debate happening now. There are various degrees of man-made.

 

[waffledave]

The scientific community isn't clear on this yet, there is a good debate happening now. There are various degrees of man-made.

It is overwhelmingly believed to not be man-made. The debate is not exactly even.

 

[Per Sjoblom]

The original Assman was made famous on the Late Show with Letterman as you probably already know.

I did not know this, only knew it from the Seinfeld episode.

 

[SOLR]

It is overwhelmingly believed to not be man-made. The debate is not exactly even.

No its not. Not in the actual virology top fields.

Lab-Made Coronavirus Triggers Debate

 

[Kriss E]

No its not. Not in the actual virology top fields.

Lab-Made Coronavirus Triggers Debate

You should watch the new Netflix show about the coronavirus, it's pretty obvious it's not man-made.

 

[King Makar19]

Just hoping I can have a big BBQ with family soon enough. And get drunk....

 

[SOLR]

You should watch the new Netflix show about the coronavirus, it's pretty obvious it's not man-made.

Yeah...if Netflix says so.

Logistical and Technical Exploration into the Origins of the Wuhan Strain of Coronavirus (COVID-19)

China owns Nature magazine’s ass – Debunking “The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2” claiming COVID-19 definitely wasn’t from a lab

 

[Edgy]

@Genesis76

Doubtful you got it in January, since even in the US they do not think it was there before end of Jan, and they had people flying in from Wuhan directly all through January. It's possible but more likely you had the flu. Not exactly sure what you are saying about man-made viruses, SARS-CoV-2 is not a man-made virus.

As for John Ioannidis, yes I know him well, a Greek dude like myself. Very famous for his work poking holes in bad methodology used by scientists. He argues that much of the data we have for this virus is bad, which is not untrue. But he has been facing a lot of backlash for much of his criticisms as of late because, ironically, the studies he is using as evidence are riddled with bad methodology. The Santa Clara study, which was from Stanford, is a big part of his argument and this is a pre-print study that has not been peer reviewed.

Just take a look at the methodology for this study and you will see that it is extremely flawed and would never pass peer review.

Ultimately what we do know is this virus is unknown, we learn more about it every day, we lack a lot of information around immunity (if it exists), long-term effects, and rates of infection. This is a problem globally. What we do know is that it has killed 100's of thousands of people in just a few months and has spread all over the planet, impossible to contain. We do know it has had devastating effects in Italy, Spain and USA, to name a few countries. It is currently the leading cause of daily death in the US, more than car crashes, more than heart disease, more than anything.

I know you'll refute that and claim some conspiracy about Bill Gates and all hospitals lying about their numbers to inflate them, but let's just use real facts, please. The real facts say that nearly 60,000 people have died in the US in barely 3 months. There is nothing you can say that will tell me this is normal. It's far more than the number of deaths that is normal at this time of year.

In the end, given the lack of information, it is completely stupid to start making decisions on public health based on things that are still unknown when the only information we do have is that this is extremely dangerous. No responsible government in the world is going to gamble with the public health. Pretty much nothing else matters as much as this.

As for your last point, let me just say this. Your freedom to go play in the park and build sandcastles does not trump the safety of the public. The government put measures in place and they are to be respected. If you're scared of the cops, don't break the law. You sound like a kid who just discovered his first NWA album.

The mortality rate in Quebec is 6% and 2% Canada wide.

Using Italy, USA as measuring sticks is illogical. Italy has an aging population with underlying conditions that resulted in large number of mortality. The US population's health in general is a bad joke, the majority of deaths are in the 55+ age rate and 60+ in Italy.

We lack too much info to be freaking out like this, or perhaps the lack of info is precisely what's making everyone freak out. No idea about underlying conditions, too much focus on infections instead of recoveries, who/where are the people getting infected the most, etc...

 

[waffledave]

We lack too much info to be freaking out like this, or perhaps the lack of info is precisely what's making everyone freak out. No idea about underlying conditions, too much focus on infections instead of recoveries, who/where are the people getting infected the most, etc...

Man, in a case like this the number one priority needs to be to prevent this from spreading out of control. Prevent as many people as possible from getting infected until we have more information.

Maybe you're right and it won't hit us that hard. It's my greatest desire at this point. But you know what's better than "we probably will be Ok?" Saying "I will be ok because I never got It." I can't control what info we have but I can have an opinion on the safest way to ultimately prevail against this thing. You can't gamble on a hunch for something this important.

 

[SergeConstantin74]

The curve is going down everywhere but in Greater Montreal. As an example, out of the 875 new cases yesterday, 798 are from that area.

The region where I live has not recorded a positive case over the past 7 days and no death since at least April 18th.

 

[ProMath]

The curve is going down everywhere but in Greater Montreal. As an example, out of the 875 new cases yesterday, 798 are from that area.

The region where I live has not recorded a positive case over the past 7 days and no death since at least April 18th.

I guess in 4-5 weeks...they will open business in those region.

Montreal will follow maybe 2-3 weeks after...depending of the next 3 weeks.
I would really like to see a map that show the new cases in Montreal. I wonder if it’s just a couple of hot spot that link all those news cases.

For exemple, in Drummondville...two big hot spot (Costco and Hospital Ste-croix)...most new cases probably come from people going there the past week.

We still have two full week to lower the curve before daycare/school open. We will have a better picture.

 

[Kriss E]

Everyone wants to go back to normal. But there's such a thing as controlled risk and education decisions. What about the numbers tells you now is a good time to relax the mitigation efforts we have been doing? You do understand that if cases increase again, we're going back into lockdown, right?

A real lockdown, a strict one. Not this cosplay quarantine we've been doing.

And if we did a 6 week lockdown at 30 cases, how long is the lockdown after 23,000 cases?

That's not the right question to ask. The measures put in place were never meant to stay there until the virus disappeared. A lot of places with low to no counts didn't even do lockdowns.
What we've done has already had major economical and social consequences. Our economy is in the crapper, a lot of people lost their jobs, some people are going into depression and physical abuse towards partners/kids have risen.
So what needs to be studied is does keeping the same lockdown measures (or harshening them) while continuing to strongly damage our society really a better direction than relaxing things and trying to get back into more normalcy?
If the death rate doesn't increase...then ya, it's worth it. That's how the government views it..at least that's my guess.
The kids aren't nearly as affected as adults+, they don't have to worry about kids going out anywhere or taking public transport so it's easier for them to have oversight, if they pass it on to their parents, well hospitals will be able to respond, and they're telling them to stay away from the elderly so it won't get passed on to the most vulnerable people.
Doing this will then help them reopen other businesses, giving people a purpose to live again and hopefully develop strong enough antibodies making them immunity long enough to get it under control.

I get their strategy, but I think it's too risky to start with that.
They should be testing more first, making sure everyone has a freaking mask, and allowing people to have very small gatherings of 2-4 people within their own home.
Hundreds of people are going to be crossing paths in school but you can't have a beer with a buddy in your home.

 

[groovejuice]

The original Assman was made famous on the Late Show with Letterman as you probably already know.

I can't help but wonder if his parents were sadistic sterno drinkers?

 

[Catanddogguitarrr]

Sound like a good idea but no, it's the perfect set-up for an horror story à la Stephen King.
Just horrifying ! I can ear the crows far in the yard, with an echo, and the cold blowing wind ...

 

[Kriss E]

Yeah...if Netflix says so.

Logistical and Technical Exploration into the Origins of the Wuhan Strain of Coronavirus (COVID-19)

China owns Nature magazine’s ass – Debunking “The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2” claiming COVID-19 definitely wasn’t from a lab

Have you seen it?