Could the flat cap be an advantage for Toronto?

[biotk]

There are going to be A LOT of teams with internal caps, Buffalo, Arizona, Pittsburgh are 3 that we KNOW will have internal caps.

If there were a lot of heavily back-loaded contracts out there then maybe this would not be as bad for the Leafs, but there are not.

For instance, Arizona has a projected cap next year of 80 (but they have more space than that as they can LTIR Hossa), but their estimated salary expenditure is only 61M. They actually have lots of room before they hit their internal cap. Now, few teams are like that, but a large number of teams have salary expenditures that are 5 - 10M (or more) less than their cap (Chicago, LA, Vancouver, Anaheim, Vegas, Boston, Florida, STL, Dallas, Washington, Philly, Montreal, Detroit). A couple other teams are so far below any internal it won't really affect them much. If Buffalo, for instance, were to set an internal cap at 70M they are currently 22M below that. They only have 10 players under contract, but they have a number of ELCs coming up and they will be able to sign some cheap depth players. (and personally I think that if they set an internal cap of 70M the owner will be fine with them spending the additional 11.5M if, and only if, they then can sign a big name UFA (like Pietro or Hall).

 

[Mess]

Its not a flat cap its Covid and no fans in the stadiums that benefit the rich teams perhaps as small market and teams playing on budget rely on attendance to pay their players.

 

[Stephen]

I have a suspicion that the teams forcing an internal cap will be immediately better off competition wise once the flat cap is broken in 2022 or later. It's a lesson almost no NHL team seems to learn: that bellying up to cap bar offers little real advantage, it just pushes the team's fat over the bar. Every team should consider an internal cap even in good times as it forces necessary decisions on the team's current talent and offers flexibility for in-season moves.

I like this approach. We also know cap space accrues over the course of a season, so a well disciplined team that finds a way to be competitive can go out and get some reinforcements if the proper planning is put into place.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

If there were a lot of heavily back-loaded contracts out there then maybe this would not be as bad for the Leafs, but there are not.

For instance, Arizona has a projected cap next year of 80 (but they have more space than that as they can LTIR Hossa), but their estimated salary expenditure is only 61M. They actually have lots of room before they hit their internal cap. Now, few teams are like that, but a large number of teams have salary expenditures that are 5 - 10M (or more) less than their cap (Chicago, LA, Vancouver, Anaheim, Vegas, Boston, Florida, STL, Dallas, Washington, Philly, Montreal, Detroit). A couple other teams are so far below any internal it won't really affect them much. If Buffalo, for instance, were to set an internal cap at 70M they are currently 22M below that. They only have 10 players under contract, but they have a number of ELCs coming up and they will be able to sign some cheap depth players. (and personally I think that if they set an internal cap of 70M the owner will be fine with them spending the additional 11.5M if, and only if, they then can sign a big name UFA (like Pietro or Hall).

Buffalo might be 22 million below their internal cap but Ullmark, Reinhart and Oloffsson will eat into that, there won't be a ton of room for improvement unles a guy like Johansson goes, then maybe they target Granlund but that's not enough.

Buffalo is in bad shape

 

[Mickey Marner]

It will squeeze the low and mid tier UFAs down into our price range, but we're still rather tight to the cap.

 

[nuck]

I have a suspicion that the teams forcing an internal cap will be immediately better off competition wise once the flat cap is broken in 2022 or later. It's a lesson almost no NHL team seems to learn: that bellying up to cap bar offers little real advantage, it just pushes the team's fat over the bar. Every team should consider an internal cap even in good times as it forces necessary decisions on the team's current talent and offers flexibility for in-season moves.

Some will for sure but there will be players available from now to post expansion when Seattle is organizing their assets that won't be around in the same numbers and cost once the cap starts to rise. An internal cap for some teams whose window is in the next three seasons could cost them their shot. This is a unique time for player availability.

If you aren't at your window yet then stalling for a couple of years might work to your advantage but any team that has the space to take on shorter term money for expansion and the flat cap is going to be able to extract assets that won't be available once things normalize.Short term restraint just to meet your bottom line vs using the cap space to bail out the big spenders is a mistake if you can actually afford to do either. A lot of clubs can't afford that strategy but I wonder how many that won a playoff round will want to just tighten their belts if they think they can buy an edge. Are some teams putting the internal cap thing out there as a means to drive up the exchange rate?

Edit. In response to the OP it could be a situational advantage where a particular player exchange is possible. A number of teams have front loaded players which will allow another's payroll to reduce while their actual cap does not. This exists to some extent every year but true salary might more be important now to those teams closest to the break even point.

 

[kb]

If we traded Nylander to Calgary, shouldn't we get something including Andersson or Hanifin back as part of the package?

This is more of a precursor to a move for a D by opening up cap space by getting a top-6 replacement for Nylander that is $2.1 million cheaper, and a hard-nosed bottom 6 player in Bennett for about $900K less than either Johnsson or Kerfoot. That $3 million extra in cap space will help out a lot.

Key unsigned RFA's: Mikheyev, Dermott

Hyman - Matthews - Marner ($24.8 million)
Johnsson - Tavares - Lindholm ($17.85 million)
Bennett - Kerfoot - Barabanov ($7 million)
Robertson - Engvall - (_____) ($2.1 million)

Rielly - (____) ($5 million)
Muzzin - Holl ($7.625 million)
Marincin - Lehtonen ($1.625 million) (Marincin a placeholder)


Andersen ($5 million)
Campbell ($1.65 million)

Kessel (retention) ($1.2 million)

This roster has $8.65 million in cap space, and that is with Anderson, Johnsson, Kerfoot, and Engvall still in there, but doesn't include the RFA's.

$8.65 for a top pairing RD.....hmmmm.......lol

But note also that I fully expect one of Johnsson or Kerfoot to be moved out, as well as Andersen.

If you squeeze Mikheyev to a $1.5 show me contract and move Andersen and Johnsson for futures, that opens up $14.5 million while needing a couple of 4th liners, a #1RD, and #1A goalie.

 

[Gabriel426]

Its not a flat cap its Covid and no fans in the stadiums that benefit the rich teams perhaps as small market and teams playing on budget rely on attendance to pay their players.

That’s actually a point that I think one of the guys on radio mentioned. The owners didn’t really need to pay the players during the playins and playoffs. And that’s one of the reason why the owners don’t want to have hub city as they don’t want(some probably can’t) pay the players without gate incomes.

 

[biotk]

Buffalo might be 22 million below their internal cap but Ullmark, Reinhart and Oloffsson will eat into that, there won't be a ton of room for improvement unles a guy like Johansson goes, then maybe they target Granlund but that's not enough.

Buffalo is in bad shape

Who cares if there is not a ton of room for improvement? If they are running 11.5M below their cap from the previous year then the team shouldn't be improving. Ullmark, Reinhart and Oloffsson will probably all sign for significantly less then they would have pre-covid. If the owner wants improvement and feels that there are suitable players to do so on the UFA market then he can open up that other 11.5M.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

There will be cases forever. I hope the Canadian markets don't panic and shut down again as cases rise. Hopefully, with schools opening, people will see what it really is and the fear will subside in a month or so.
The NHL needs fans in the stands in the Canadian markets.

I'm not sure what this means: "what it really is"?

There's a lot of models and health officials (Dr. Fauci, etc.) sounding pretty nervous & cautious about what will happen in the fall i.e., the so called "twindemic" and having the flu & COVID-19 simultaneously. In particular, they are quite worried about December.

How does anyone predict anything with confidence at this stage? Hopefully things will be great soon of course (we've been hearing that for months now of course), but that doesn't seem assured by any means.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Who cares if there is not a ton of room for improvement? If they are running 11.5M below their cap from the previous year then the team shouldn't be improving. Ullmark, Reinhart and Oloffsson will probably all sign for significantly less then they would have pre-covid. If the owner wants improvement and feels that there are suitable players to do so on the UFA market then he can open up that other 11.5M.

They HAVE to improve it's been 9 years since the last playoff game, it isn't a rebuild anymore it is now an incredible, almost impressive commitment, not even to mediocrity but to being downright awful

 

[Cobra777]

No it would be better if the cap rose or even better, just disappeared completely

Yes Sir, I wish it would just vanish, as a hockey fan the other part of the game I used to love was the blockbuster trades, not just for our team but just in general, which seldom happens anymore under this system. Unfortunately when there was no cap the regimes of managements from the Ballard yrs. teachers union, Mlse realty were too busy running a business vs. a hockey team and were frugal to say the least in spending money on all the good players available throughout the yrs. because the arena was always sold out no matter what they iced.

We always seemed to get them and foolishly trade good prospects and draft picks for them far later on in their age past their primes.

When you think of the wealth of this franchise and having in place an intelligent management that could of had a green light to purchase and draft properly pre cap, we should of had a dynasty, we should NOT be in a 53 yr. drought.

 

[biotk]

They HAVE to improve it's been 9 years since the last playoff game, it isn't a rebuild anymore it is now an incredible, almost impressive commitment, not even to mediocrity but to being downright awful

They don't have to improve. The last two years they have crawled forward from 62 points to 76 points to a pace of 81 points this season. They are not going to competing for the cup this year and with likely few fans in the building this coming year they are free to say that they will just try to continue slowly getting better and keep their cap space open for Dahlin and any high end UFA who will agree to come to Buffalo over the two off seasons. It's not great, but the Leafs have been going all in and have gotten worse over each of the last two years.

 

[LeafsNation75]

They’re not going to have a bubble next season. It cost too much and the NHL is a gate driven league.
If they start up again in Dec or Jan (Dec is preferable) and the Canadian government doesn’t allow US based teams to play in Canada, what would they do?

Wouldn't the Canada/US border would still need to be closed for non essential travel in December 2020 if US based teams were not allowed to play in Canada.

 

[Papi 4 Hart]

2 clear advantages:

1) We will be able to sign UFA Vets to cheaper shorter term deals because the market will not be as crazy.

2) Teams will be forced to give up (with potential retainment) players to fit their internal budget at a low cost.

Hopefully Dubas can shark some teams.

 

[kb]

If Columbus is one of the "internal cap" teams, they are in a world of hurt. The have $7 million in cap space currently, with PL Dubois, Josh Anderson, Devin Shore, and Vladislav Gavrikov as their notable RFA's, and are already over $70 million in salary commitments.

 

[LeafsNation75]

If Columbus is one of the "internal cap" teams, they are in a world of hurt. The have $7 million in cap space currently, with PL Dubois, Josh Anderson, Devin Shore, and Vladislav Gavrikov as their notable RFA's, and are already over $70 million in salary commitments.

I don't expect Kyle Dubas to do this, however I wouldn't be surprised if Marc Bergevin and Montreal attempts to sign Pierre-Luc Dubois to an offer sheet if he becomes an RFA. They already tried that with Sebastian Aho and I'm sure with Dubois growing up in Rimouski would be appealing to the Canadiens fans.

 

[nuck]

I don't expect Kyle Dubas to do this, however I wouldn't be surprised if Marc Bergevin and Montreal attempts to sign Pierre-Luc Dubois to an offer sheet if he becomes an RFA. They already tried that with Sebastian Aho and I'm sure with Dubois growing up in Rimouski would be appealing to the Canadiens fans.

I didn't think that Bergevin understood how offer sheets work. He signed Aho for fair market value, basically guaranteeing a match as the 5 year term was not a major step. With CBJs lack of top 6 depth it would have to be an excessive number for Columbus to take the picks, I think that $8.5M is two 1st, a 2nd, and 3rd. That overpay would be the tipping point. The compensation is just too low not match at$6.1M+. Aho was easily worth the $8.5 and more but Dubois probably isn't at the same level. If Domi were moved PLD would fit well with Suzuki I think, but I assume the Habs are hoping Kotkaniemi will be better than a #3. Their window, such as it is with Price and Weber is now but are they close enouigh to take a run like that?

It would be interesting if any GM would consider the overpayment that comes with a winning OS this year.

 

[Gabriel426]

2 clear advantages:

1) We will be able to sign UFA Vets to cheaper shorter term deals because the market will not be as crazy.

2) Teams will be forced to give up (with potential retainment) players to fit their internal budget at a low cost.

Hopefully Dubas can shark some teams.

That’s true and hope Dubas can take advantage

 

[Kazparov]

2 clear advantages:

1) We will be able to sign UFA Vets to cheaper shorter term deals because the market will not be as crazy.

2) Teams will be forced to give up (with potential retainment) players to fit their internal budget at a low cost.

Hopefully Dubas can shark some teams.

3. Leafs use their wealth to help teams struggling financially and take contracts destined for LTIR or Robidas island and in the process can get some extra assets.

 

[joepeps]

would have been better if we had a flat cap for 3-5 years when signing marner matthews and nylander.

 

[Menzinger]

The flat cap isn't an advantage, but the Covid financial pressures on other teams/ownership certainly is.

MLSE generates a mountain of revenue each Leafs season whil other teams even on good years apparently still run fairly tight margins.

These teams will be forced to sell off impact players to shed salary - this presents an opportunity for the Leafs to take advantage of.

It would be even better for the Leafs if the cap rose along with this

 

[Menzinger]

If there were a lot of heavily back-loaded contracts out there then maybe this would not be as bad for the Leafs, but there are not.

For instance, Arizona has a projected cap next year of 80 (but they have more space than that as they can LTIR Hossa), but their estimated salary expenditure is only 61M. They actually have lots of room before they hit their internal cap. Now, few teams are like that, but a large number of teams have salary expenditures that are 5 - 10M (or more) less than their cap (Chicago, LA, Vancouver, Anaheim, Vegas, Boston, Florida, STL, Dallas, Washington, Philly, Montreal, Detroit). A couple other teams are so far below any internal it won't really affect them much. If Buffalo, for instance, were to set an internal cap at 70M they are currently 22M below that. They only have 10 players under contract, but they have a number of ELCs coming up and they will be able to sign some cheap depth players. (and personally I think that if they set an internal cap of 70M the owner will be fine with them spending the additional 11.5M if, and only if, they then can sign a big name UFA (like Pietro or Hall).

Arizona ownership likely would still want to spend less money. A team that was late with their signing bonus payouts already isn't going to look forward to spending even 60 mil in real dollars

 

[Nineteen67]

Wouldn't the Canada/US border would still need to be closed for non essential travel in December 2020 if US based teams were not allowed to play in Canada.

I’m hoping the Canadian government doesn’t freak out again and lock down as “cases” rise.

 

[aingefan]

I didn't think that Bergevin understood how offer sheets work. He signed Aho for fair market value, basically guaranteeing a match as the 5 year term was not a major step. With CBJs lack of top 6 depth it would have to be an excessive number for Columbus to take the picks, I think that $8.5M is two 1st, a 2nd, and 3rd. That overpay would be the tipping point. The compensation is just too low not match at$6.1M+. Aho was easily worth the $8.5 and more but Dubois probably isn't at the same level. If Domi were moved PLD would fit well with Suzuki I think, but I assume the Habs are hoping Kotkaniemi will be better than a #3. Their window, such as it is with Price and Weber is now but are they close enouigh to take a run like that?

It would be interesting if any GM would consider the overpayment that comes with a winning OS this year.

It was almost a favour to Carolina.