Corsi, shot quality, and the Toronto Maple Leafs

[Bear of Bad News]

The post you've quoted says that the people who used Corsi to predict the Leafs demise were wrong and should admit it. If you weren't one of those people, then there's no need for any defensiveness.

If it applies to people in this thread, then it'd be nice to address it directly.

If it doesn't apply to people in this thread, then it'd be nice to see a citation. Otherwise, how can we see if you're correctly describing (and then countering) the claim?

 

[Beef Invictus]

Someone already asked me to not say "all the advanced stats guys" and I apologized and said I should've been more specific.

The post you've quoted says that the people who used Corsi to predict the Leafs demise were wrong and should admit it. If you weren't one of those people, then there's no need for any defensiveness.

And here we are again. The need to see people admit they were wrong.

Here's the thing though...WHY? Their deductions, based on the stats, were accurate.

Admitting they were incorrect so you can get whatever satisfaction you seek does what exactly? How does that advance stats in hockey?

 

[Gutchecktime]

And here we are again. The need to see people admit they were wrong.

Here's the thing though...WHY? Their deductions, based on the stats, were accurate.

Admitting they were incorrect so you can get whatever satisfaction you seek does what exactly? How does that advance stats in hockey?

If someone predicts a team not to make the playoffs and they do, they're wrong... If someone predicts a team to plummet and they don't... they're wrong.

 

[Gutchecktime]

If it applies to people in this thread, then it'd be nice to address it directly.

If it doesn't apply to people in this thread, then it'd be nice to see a citation. Otherwise, how can we see if you're correctly describing (and then countering) the claim?

I've posted a couple links in my previous posts.

Could you clarify here - are you saying that you doubt there were a lot of people who predicted a significant drop in the standings (and no playoffs) for the Leafs based on their possession this season? Or just that you weren't one of them?

 

[Beef Invictus]

If someone predicts a team not to make the playoffs and they do, they're wrong... If someone predicts a team to plummet and they don't... they're wrong.

What does admitting they're wrong accomplish, besides your satisfaction? How does your demand that these people rub a wrong prediction in their own face further stats in hockey?

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Could you clarify here - are you saying that you doubt there were a lot of people who predicted a significant drop in the standings (and no playoffs) for the Leafs based on their possession this season? Or just that you weren't one of them?

What I'm saying is that I'm an old man who has had ten concussions in his lifetime. My memory's not that good.

Care to refresh it? If lots of folks said it, it shouldn't be too difficult.

 

[Gutchecktime]

What does admitting they're wrong accomplish, besides your satisfaction? How does your demand that these people rub a wrong prediction in their own face further stats in hockey?

Satisfaction? Nah, if people want to spin things and claim their prediction was great even though it was clearly wrong, it's really no skin off my back. But it seems rather childish to me.

If those people just admit they were wrong, we can probably look at what other things teams need to be doing in order to overcome a poor Corsi. It doesn't seem like those people can though.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Nah, if people want to spin things and claim their prediction was great even though it was clearly wrong, it's really no skin off my back. But it seems rather childish to me.

If those people just admit they were wrong, we can probably look at what other things teams need to be doing in order to overcome a poor Corsi. It doesn't seem like those people can though.

Again - who is doing this?

And if it's not happening in this thread, then why can't we just skip to the "looking at other things teams need" part of the discussion?

 

[Gutchecktime]

What I'm saying is that I'm an old man who has had ten concussions in his lifetime. My memory's not that good.

Care to refresh it? If lots of folks said it, it shouldn't be too difficult.

Sure, post 639 has two examples. You can also refer to twitter and every twitter fight James Mirtle of the Globe and Mail has posted thus far.

 

[Gutchecktime]

Again - who is doing this?

And if it's not happening in this thread, then why can't we just skip to the "looking at other things teams need" part of the discussion?

It could be that Twitter is not really in your repertoire and that might be why you're not seeing the discussions between the Pension Plan Puppets crew, Mirtle, etc. on Corsi. If that's the case, then I suppose you'd miss these conversations that have been going on all season.

But sure, we can skip there.

I think you can overcome poor possession with a) great goaltending b) pure skill up front / a team that can capitalize on it's transition game and odd man rushes and c) good special teams. Or at least, that's how the Leafs have been doing it for 115 games now.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

In the hockey analytics world, not much. Including bashing Toronto.

So now you're ignoring the larger world you mentioned?

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Nah. Definitely 2.

You may have noticed it now that the Leafs are in a position to have these stats applied to them and because they're bucking an established trend, but they've been making appearances before that.

Believe it or not, but not everything in the world is here to destroy the Leafs. Its not the world against you.

They've been bucking them for several years (on both sides). This is the first year power rankings and magazines have been focusing on them.

 

[Bedards Dad]

But if you look at all the available data - rather than cherry picking the data, like you have here - shot based statistics (Corsi, fenwick, shot differential) do, in fact, have more predictive power than any other conventional measure of team strength (goal differential, points percentage, etc).

Yet they were still wrong each and every time? Interesting.

 

[Bedards Dad]

What does admitting they're wrong accomplish, besides your satisfaction? How does your demand that these people rub a wrong prediction in their own face further stats in hockey?

If they can admit they were wrong, they can look into why they were wrong. Once that is done, the Corsi crowd can begin to look into other stats that will accompany cCrsi to make an accurate prediction. And maybe, just maybe when the next new stat pops up, they won't jump on it like it is the end all be all.

So far Colour of Gatorade is a stat on par with Corsi.when it comes to predicting a winner.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

It could be that Twitter is not really in your repertoire and that might be why you're not seeing the discussions between the Pension Plan Puppets crew, Mirtle, etc. on Corsi. If that's the case, then I suppose you'd miss these conversations that have been going on all season.

But sure, we can skip there.

I think you can overcome poor possession with a) great goaltending b) pure skill up front / a team that can capitalize on it's transition game and odd man rushes and c) good special teams. Or at least, that's how the Leafs have been doing it for 115 games now.

I only follow Twitter for Richard Sherman.

I certainly think that there's something to the goaltending aspect; if we believe that save percentage is a true measure of goaltending skill (to some degree) then there shouldn't be a reason why that aspect of PDO should regress entirely (I do 99% of my analytics on the goaltending end, so if I'm missing a fundamental aspect of PDO, someone please speak up). There *is* a significant amount of variation in save percentage year-to-year (as with any binomial distribution), but there's an underlying probability driving it.

I assume that when you say skill up front, you're referring to the opposite side of the coin (if you have players who consistently find ways to exceed a league-average shooting percentage, then the same argument would hold as what I describe above for goaltending).

As far as special teams are concerned, is PDO inclusive of special teams (or is it even strength only)?

Beyond that, it's still perplexing that a team that's consistently outshot can post a good record, since ultimately (goals for) = (shots taken) * (shooting percentage), and (goals against) = (shots received) * (1 - save percentage). It's clearly something to be studied further.

On the other hand, if we perfectly understood hockey at this point, then where would the fun be in that?

 

[Bear of Bad News]

So far Colour of Gatorade is a stat on par with Corsi.when it comes to predicting a winner.

Unfounded (and false) statements like this don't really advance the discussion, do they?

 

[LolungoReboundo]

Guys I'd like to ask a couple of questions on possession etc if anyone would be kind enough to answer.

I understand the basics and its usually true that teams that own possession of the puck dictate the pace of the game, however is it possible to isolate effective possession? As in instead of a continued cycle on the boards resulting in no goal, a team is more effective with each touch of the puck? Also I don't know if I can compare soccer here but we see teams like Barcelona (and recently Bayern Munich) play the quick pass possession game but we also see teams who have strategies built to counteract teams who possess the ball handily. Something like a fast paced counterattack that puts heavy pressure on the back line to not turn the ball over or risk a goal. Kind of like what the Germans have accomplished in recent years on the international stage. Once a goal is scored it makes the possession team take more chances allowing the counterattack team to take advantage of loose holes with CBs pushing further up the pitch. I was wondering if this could be applied in hockey where a team like the leafs could be dangerous on effectiveness per possession and counterattack. Scoring first for the leafs can put pressure on other teams to take chances causing more counterattacks? I know soccer and hockey are two completely different sport but possession dictates pace in both I was just wondering if someone could enlighten me on my queries about counterattack pressure and effectiveness per possession?

 

[PhilTheThrillKessel]

The Leafs are still in the playoffs? Weren't they supposed to fall apart mid-season like that Minnesota Wild team did a few years ago?

 

[Bear of Bad News]

The Leafs are still in the playoffs? Weren't they supposed to fall apart mid-season like that Minnesota Wild team did a few years ago?

Again, how does this advance the discussion?

 

[Gutchecktime]

Went through the thread again last night. People had no problem bumping this thread and patting themselves on the back for their predictions during the Leafs losing streak earlier this season - yes, in this thread. Why can't anyone point out they were wrong now?

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Went through the thread again last night. People had no problem bumping this thread and patting themselves on the back for their predictions during the Leafs losing streak earlier this season - yes, in this thread. Why can't anyone point out they were wrong now?

Well, for one, I wasn't wrong.

I'm also noticing a lot of (Toronto) fans bumping this thread now, when they weren't earlier.

Are you surprised that people are more likely to promote a thread when it supports them than they are when it doesn't support them?

 

[Gutchecktime]

Well, for one, I wasn't wrong.

I'm also noticing a lot of (Toronto) fans bumping this thread now, when they weren't earlier.

Are you surprised that people are more likely to promote a thread when it supports them than they are when it doesn't support them?

No, not at all.

But I think it's kinda lame that those same people giving Leaf fans a hard time about "rubbing it in" were rubbing it in halfway through the season when it looked good for them.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

No, not at all.

But I think it's kinda lame that those same people giving Leaf fans a hard time about "rubbing it in" were rubbing it in halfway through the season when it looked good for them.

That's an HFBoards characteristic. People post more when they're "right".

I'd do it, too, except that I'm rarely right.

 

[Gutchecktime]

That's an HFBoards characteristic. People post more when they're "right".

I'd do it, too, except that I'm rarely right.

Sure, I said I understand that.

But no one had an issue with anyone "rubbing it in" during a losing streak. Now Leaf fans can't point out it was wrong because it's not "advancing discussion"?

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Sure, I said I understand that.

But no one had an issue with anyone "rubbing it in" during a losing streak. Now Leaf fans can't point out it was wrong because it's not "advancing discussion"?

They're fine to rub it in. Does it advance the discussion?