OT: Coronavirus XXXX: Variant & Vaccination Rates Are Climbing, Let's Get to Herd Immunity Baby!

[CantHaveTkachev]

Yeah I can't see how anyone can argue in good faith that restrictions don't work. Here in Alberta our Covid numbers have tracked almost perfectly with the level of restrictions that are placed on us.

This was from about a week ago, but now we have yet another data point - after they closed patios and other steps our numbers are coming down again.

Patio's closed on May 9th at midnight

we peaked on April 30th

did the whole "wait 2 weeks till cases rise" just get thrown out the window?

 

[oilers'72]

I'm talking about Alberta since the Edmonton Oilers play in the province of Alberta. You provided a reason why the 2nd wave was falling off in Alberta, I was asking why it didn't keep falling here as restrictions loosened.

Does Covid start and end at the Alberta boundary? Did the loosening of restrictions here cause a wave worldwide that's only going down because of tighter restrictions here? Didn't we have restrictions last summer into fall? If we did, what caused the second wave?

 

[McShogun99]

Yeah it just sucks I'm not at work today lol. Tried going in. Worked for 2.5 hours then was like yeah this ain't working. Even after a 2 hour nap I'm still feeling tired lol.

I got covid 4 months ago and I’m still getting tired easily. It’s slowly getting better though. I used to need to nap daily while I was recovering but now it’s down to once-twice a week. My cardio is completely gone so I’m trying to work that back up to normal also.

 

[Nostradumbass]

Does Covid start and end at the Alberta boundary? Did the loosening of restrictions here cause a wave worldwide that's only going down because of tighter restrictions here? Didn't we have restrictions last summer into fall? If we did, what caused the second wave?

You're asking a lot of questions instead of answering my single one. I was asking a question about the logic you used to come up with your answer, you have unsuccessfully attempted to deflect with several other questions.

You said that the body's natural resistance caused the 2nd wave to end even though there is ample data to suggest that it was due to lockdowns. This same data suggests that the easing of restrictions has caused the case rate to go down.

 

[oobga]

I would bet that a large part of the active population being able to get vaccinated has had a much large impact on Covid cases than patio’s closing. Especially when the CDC admits that outdoor transmission is close to nil. I agree that strict lockdowns will reduce transmission numbers, but then they also cause collateral damage. Like someone else said earlier it’s a balance.

Yeah, I think it's basically been a battle between transmission and vaccinations since the start of spring. I still see people getting together everywhere I go. The new restrictions were more about punishment and a threat than actually doing something that would stop transmission. Not sure how well that really resonates with people that are sick of listening. The closing schools and other restrictions, probably some impact, but minimal compared to getting the vaccines rolling and the now improving weather.

The actual problem with our "restrictions" has been lack of enforcement this year which allowed the not caring and getting together privately to become pretty mainstream, and we're still not really going there to the degree many other places did. We paid for that, with one of the biggest waves in north america in the spring, but what can ya do now... keep those vaccines rolling!

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Even anecdotally, there's a clear correlation between strict lockdowns and declining case numbers in AB. This is the third time we'll see it.

It's pretty clear that when people aren't able to socialize in normal settings, they stay at home and the spread slows.

Is there though?

on April 1st, our r-value was 1.12


on May 9, the day the new restrictions came into effect the r-value dropped to 1.02


so it dropped without the aid of restrictions...hmm (due to vaccines and seasonality is my guess)

 

[AM]

Alberta, Canada or worldwide restrictions? Other provinces, other states or other countries?

He doesn’t like it when you do what he does. Clearly when people focus on their health better 6feet distance wash hands and etc, the r0 dips below 1, and cases drop. There are other aspects also. The variants seem to be more transmissible so require better protections and etc

 

[oilers'72]

You're asking a lot of questions instead of answering my single one. I was asking a question about the logic you used to come up with your answer, you have unsuccessfully attempted to deflect with several other questions.

Actually, I was indirectly answering your response to see what path you're going on. Since you're a political creature, using the body's natural resistance goes against political thought. Comparing Alberta to other places and worldwide also goes against politics because it then becomes impossible to single out one province. As well, not attempting to answer those questions shows a narrow political view to a very complex dilemma. Find fault if you want but this is much bigger than you want to think.

 

[Nostradumbass]

Actually, I was indirectly answering your response to see what path you're going on. Since you're a political creature, using the body's natural resistance goes against political thought. Comparing Alberta to other places and worldwide also goes against politics because it then becomes impossible to single out one province. As well, not attempting to answer those questions shows a narrow political view to a very complex dilemma. Find fault if you want but this is much bigger than you want to think.

I'm a scientific creature, not a political one, and your claim of the body's natural resistance goes against the available data and scientific thought. Please see the graph from @Yukon Joe to see the strong correlation between restrictive measures and case rate.

 

[AM]

I'm a scientific creature, not a political one, and your claim of the body's natural resistance goes against the available data and scientific thought. Please see the graph from @Yukon Joe to see the strong correlation between restrictive measures and case rate.

Scientifically you would need to not add restrictions to test your hypothesis. Which has been done in other jurisdictions. I do think "restriction messages" are a good thing to get people to individually pull their weight.

 

[bellagiobob]

 

[oilers'72]

I'm a scientific creature, not a political one, and your claim of the body's natural resistance goes against the available data and scientific thought. Please see the graph from @Yukon Joe to see the strong correlation between restrictive measures and case rate.

It still doesn't explain why the second wave hit (June through September had no waves). As well, it only shows Alberta. I'd be more interested in seeing other jurisdictions and see what restrictions were there and if they kept the case load down or had no effect. That's what a scientific mind would look for.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

I'm a scientific creature, not a political one, and your claim of the body's natural resistance goes against the available data and scientific thought. Please see the graph from @Yukon Joe to see the strong correlation between restrictive measures and case rate.

misleading graph cause it doesn't account for a 2-week lag

 

[Nostradumbass]

misleading graph cause it doesn't account for a 2-week lag

It shows the case counts vs. restriction events. There is no 2 week lag in restriction dates or case counts, the 2 week lag would be inferred when interpreting that graph.

It still doesn't explain why the second wave hit (June through September had no waves). As well, it only shows Alberta. I'd be more interested in seeing other jurisdictions and see what restrictions were there and if they kept the case load down or had no effect. That's what a scientific mind would look for.

The fact that people are forced inside vs. being able to be outside (where literature has shown to effectively limit spread) is the current belief.

If you have any data that shows this natural body resistance, I'd be interested in seeing it.

 

[McGoMcD]

Is there though?

on April 1st, our r-value was 1.12
View attachment 435091

on May 9, the day the new restrictions came into effect the r-value dropped to 1.02
View attachment 435092

so it dropped without the aid of restrictions...hmm (due to vaccines and seasonality is my guess)

Ya, well of course lockdowns work, but the question should be, do they work well enough to be worth the cost. I think not. There are better tools. I mean without any government intervention you have people following a pretty simple rule. If cases are going up stay home and isolate, if not start to go out more. Literally, that simple norm that would happen with no government involvement is essentially as effective. It blows me away people are still calling for more government action. It is pretty much accepted that government action actually made covid worse. They told people to calm down last march when they should be panicking. Then they told people to panic as we learned more about the disease. Who it affects and that it honestly was never close to as deadly as they first thought it might be.

Restrictions are a fail, I don't get how more people don't understand this by now.

 

[Fourier]

It could be lockdowns and vaccines. But, worldwide, there was a peak around the end of April, which is dropping now. Without knowing how each country handled the spread, including restrictions, it becomes very hard to know.

Vaccines are a big part of this for sure. But the evidence suggests that teh lockdown allow you time to vaccinate enough people to make a difference.

 

[oilers'72]

It shows the case counts vs. restriction events. There is no 2 week lag in restriction dates or case counts, the 2 week lag would be inferred when interpreting that graph.


The fact that people are forced inside vs. being able to be outside (where literature has shown to effectively limit spread) is the current belief.

If you have any data that shows this natural body resistance, I'd be interested in seeing it.

Did a quick look and found this study. Interesting that summer resistance helps keep infections of various pathogens down (which sheds light on the lack of a peak until October). Winter, not so much. Included with this study is this quote (with link to the another study) under "Seasonality of Vitamin D":

"A similar study conducted in Edmonton, Canada (52°N), the conversion of pre-vitamin D3 ceased after mid October and did not return until mid April.[23]"

Here's the study.

Factors Influencing the Seasonal Patterns of Infectious Diseases

 

[GOilers88]

Ya, well of course lockdowns work, but the question should be, do they work well enough to be worth the cost. I think not. There are better tools. I mean without any government intervention you have people following a pretty simple rule. If cases are going up stay home and isolate, if not start to go out more. Literally, that simple norm that would happen with no government involvement is essentially as effective. It blows me away people are still calling for more government action. It is pretty much accepted that government action actually made covid worse. They told people to calm down last march when they should be panicking. Then they told people to panic as we learned more about the disease. Who it affects and that it honestly was never close to as deadly as they first thought it might be.

Restrictions are a fail, I don't get how more people don't understand this by now.

I've always felt that unless they were going to do a hard lockdown and actually enforce it, that it was sort of a waste of time. People have complained about the world being shut down, but we didn't see anything close to that in Canada and I'm starting to think the economic ramifications from a hard lockdown would be far easier to deal with than the ongoing clusterf*** they've decided to use.

They can't get mad at people when they basically told everyone to abide by the honor system for the first year of this. The honor system never works. For anything.

 

[oilers'72]

Vaccines are a big part of this for sure. But the evidence suggests that teh lockdown allow you time to vaccinate enough people to make a difference.

If this was still winter, I may agree. Summer's almost here, so a lockdown isn't really necessary. In the study I posted, getting vaccines out before October will be easier, especially when governments don't make its' electorate social pariahs.

 

[McGoMcD]

I've always felt that unless they were going to do a hard lockdown and actually enforce it, that it was sort of a waste of time. People have complained about the world being shut down, but we didn't see anything close to that in Canada and I'm starting to think the economic ramifications from a hard lockdown would be far easier to deal with than the ongoing clusterf*** they've decided to use.

They can't get mad at people when they basically told everyone to abide by the honor system for the first year of this. The honor system never works. For anything.

Well, the problem is even at face value a hard lockdown is impossible. As you would need to do it until everyone is vaccinated. That is impossible. It is already proven that no matter how hard you lock down Covid won't go away. It will just be there waiting The option of a hard lockdown for over a year isn't an option. So they should have just let people abide by the honor system. As hard as it is for people to grasp that is the best system with the least cost. Bottom line if you lockdown hard it just comes back anyway. The idea that the government had any tools to mitigate this other than just pumping money into a vaccine is silly. Support vaccine development and ask people to do their best. Literally would have ended up exactly the same with way less pain.

Why so many people want to live under a totalitarian regime is a bit scary I must say. Yes, people acting on their own could hurt you, however, last I checked it also helps you. Not sure why the constant temptation for a heavy-handed government to solve our problems is omnipresent.

 

[bellagiobob]

Ya, well of course lockdowns work, but the question should be, do they work well enough to be worth the cost. I think not. There are better tools. I mean without any government intervention you have people following a pretty simple rule. If cases are going up stay home and isolate, if not start to go out more. Literally, that simple norm that would happen with no government involvement is essentially as effective. It blows me away people are still calling for more government action. It is pretty much accepted that government action actually made covid worse. They told people to calm down last march when they should be panicking. Then they told people to panic as we learned more about the disease. Who it affects and that it honestly was never close to as deadly as they first thought it might be.

Restrictions are a fail, I don't get how more people don't understand this by now.

If that actually happened, we wouldn't of needed restrictions. But unfortunately the 10%, or whatever the % is, that never gave a crap right from the beginning caused the rest of us grief. No Provincial government wanted to impose restrictions, least of all Alberta.

 

[GOilers88]

Well, the problem is even at face value a hard lockdown is impossible. As you would need to do it until everyone is vaccinated. That is impossible. It is already proven that no matter how hard you lock down Covid won't go away. It will just be there waiting The option of a hard lockdown for over a year isn't an option. So they should have just let people abide by the honor system. As hard as it is for people to grasp that is the best system with the least cost. Bottom line if you lockdown hard it just comes back anyway. The idea that the government had any tools to mitigate this other than just pumping money into a vaccine is silly. Support vaccine development and ask people to do their best. Literally would have ended up exactly the same with way less pain.

Why so many people want to live under a totalitarian regime is a bit scary I must say. Yes, people acting on their own could hurt you, however, last I checked it also helps you. Not sure why the constant temptation for a heavy-handed government to solve our problems is omnipresent.

I mean, I'm basically in agreement with you. I just feel like they've gotten and keep getting frustrated by people not abiding by the rules they want in place without doing anything other than going honor system which is silly to me.

 

[bellagiobob]

Love that graph.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

It shows the case counts vs. restriction events. There is no 2 week lag in restriction dates or case counts, the 2 week lag would be inferred when interpreting that graph.

Of course there’s a 2-week lag...there’s a reason the government waited 3 weeks after easing to step 1 and step 2..to see if easing wouldn’t cause a rise in cases
It’s the same when restrictions are put on..we need to wait a couple weeks to see if they’re working

 

[phrenssoa]

Manitoba has 73 in ICU. 34 of those are vaccinated. Could be recent vaccinations, they don't provide that information, but concerning for sure. 50% vaccinated for Manitoba, and 46% of ICUs are from that group.

EDIT - just found an update. They say most of those are within 3 weeks of receiving their vaccinations.

Considering most of the vaccines were administered over the last month or so, it is logical that most infections would have occurred within three weeks for those that are in intensive care today. Too early to tell if those stats truly speak on the effectiveness of the vaccine, though it is concerning for sure.