Speculation: Coronavirus Pandemic VS The Shanaplan

[justashadowof]

Why do people think that moving $3-4 million dollar 3rd line players without taking salary back and picking up effective "cheap" players is going to be so easy when the entire league is going to be trying to do the same thing?

I'd give Dubas full credit if he managed to sell off either of Johnsson or Kerfoot without retaining salary or having to add assets to the deal. Honest to goodness Johnsson or Kerfoot to another team for next to nothing but with no retained salary could be a positive move in the current environment depending upon how the cap space is utilized.

 

[Clark4Ever]

Why do people think that moving $3-4 million dollar 3rd line players without taking salary back and picking up effective "cheap" players is going to be so easy when the entire league is going to be trying to do the same thing?

True, but it also depends on the actual dollars owed to the player. Teams facing a cash crunch might be willing to take on the AAV if they can save money on the actual amount owed to the player for the duration of the contract. That is where we have an edge based on the way most of our front loaded player contracts have been structured.

 

[egd27]

True, but it also depends on the actual dollars owed to the player. Teams facing a cap crunch might be willing to take on the AAV if they can save money on the actual amount owed to the player for the duration of the contract. That is where we have an edge based on the way most of our front loaded player contracts have been structured.

I think you mean cash crunch rather than cap crunch.

Either way..... if you have a cash crunch, you would be looking for one the many inexpensive but effective that supposedly will be plentiful, rather than $2,5M players.

If you have a cap crunch, you don't want to add players with $3.5M cap hits unless you can unload a higher cap hit contract (which the Leafs are not interested in)

 

[kb]

True, but it also depends on the actual dollars owed to the player. Teams facing a cap crunch might be willing to take on the AAV if they can save money on the actual amount owed to the player for the duration of the contract. That is where we have an edge based on the way most of our front loaded player contracts have been structured.

This is how the Leafs can benefit. Taking a similar player with a lower cap hit who is owed more in real dollars.

 

[LeafGrief]

The flat cap might mean that putting $40m into 4 players just isn't sustainable for long term success. Worst case scenario we trade one of them (probably Marner), lose a bit of value in that trade, but still have two elite #1C's to build around.

The plan might be adjusted, but we're far from screwed. Anyone who has ever planned anything for real knows that plans need to be flexible and that "no plan survives first contact with the enemy".

 

[Clark4Ever]

I think you mean cash crunch rather than cap crunch.

Either way..... if you have a cash crunch, you would be looking for one the many inexpensive but effective that supposedly be plentiful, rather than $2,5M players.

If you have a cap crunch, you don't want to add players with $3.5M cap hits unless you can unload a higher cap hit contract (which the Leafs are not interested in)

Yes, I meant cash crunch.

Granted, my statement would be more intriguing for a guy like Marner or Nylander.

 

[Leafs1993]

If they signed for 8 years, they'd be significantly underpaid relative to their comparables.

Interesting take, do you have some comparables your basing that off of?

 

[Leafs1993]

The only thing he failed at was predicting a world pandemic. Dubas and Pridham likely had multiple scenarios drawn up for fitting future contracts under the cap based on minimum and maximum growth, but no one could predict a flat cap for multiple years. Over paying, or slightly over paying stars is something I can live with after YEARS of over paying scrubs. I know it's popular to hate on Dubas, but compared to previous GM's over the past 2 decades, I just don't see a problem (yet).

With a flap cap, now the wrench in their plans is likely the room they predicted for extending Rielly and bringing in RD UFA's. Realistically Dubas has an out (the pandemic cap) now to trade either Marner or Nylander and bring in young players on ELC or RFA. With out either one of these players, the team still has enough offense to win in the playoffs.

Trading Marner right now would be a huge mistake imo. His value is the lowest it will ever be.

 

[Leafsfan74]

Let me start by saying I know there are far worse problems in the world aside from hockey. So please don't take it the wrong way when I say that this pandemic has derailed the Shanaplan.

When we signed our guys we did it with the idea that the cap would increase during each season, with each passing season allowing more cap space to fill with depth players.

We signed these high contracts knowing in years 4 and 5 they would age a lot better. Now with the cap being flat for 3 years it is nearly impossible to get good value out of any of these contracts and the majority of them will be spent in seasons where we cannot surround them with quality depth and defense.

Trading one of the big contracts isn't really an option either. Matthews and Tavares are untouchable IMO. Marners value is probably the lowest it will ever be. He had a bad season and there aren't many teams that can take his caphit on anyway. Not to mention the huge hole it would leave on our PP, PK and he is the heart and soul of this team without a doubt.

Nylander has the potential to really outperform his contract probably giving him a bit more value. He is not proven at C but has played there before. Still don't think trading Nylander solves anything because we still would need to pay his replacement and we probably wouldn't get a huge return yet.

Other teams may be in similar situations but not to the same extent we are at. What can Shanny and Dubas do to get this plan back on track?

You hope for the best and expect the worst. You thus plan accordingly. I'd say the uncertainty of the leagues short term future revenue has impacted more than the flat cap has.

When you have an RFA you use the leverage. Instead, Dubas paid young, unproven RFA's, UFA type money. There is probably between $3-6M a year in savings between the 3 top contracts signed by young RFAs if negotiated effectively from the position they were in.

I blame the media and ownership probably as much as Dubas who was probably under great pressure to force the first domino and it backfired. Much of this might even be on the lap of Kadri for his back to back suspensions, but I won't go that far. I think he could have helped them beat the Bruins at least once, maybe twice (though he never won a round here, so who knows?).

So, now, as I believe he needed to do before; he has to make a splash. You bring in a #1D and a #4 let's say, and this team can win with two top tier lines and two defense first lines. Come playoff time, you will be very happy with 25-30 less goals for for a far better defensive group that can shut down other top forwards.

That's the direction he needs to go. It's not unsalvageable. Leafs have deep pockets that they can spend more freely and reap the huge rewards later if they achieve playoff success.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Interesting take, do you have some comparables your basing that off of?

I've taken a detailed look at pretty much all high-end players signed to post-ELC contracts in the cap era, and at time of signing, Matthews and Marner were two of the best players, only surpassed by a few.

The point of contention that many have is that they have convinced themselves that raw points are all that are considered in contract negotiations, and all contracts signed must follow solely that raw point scale, or their contracts are a result of bad negotiations by bad GMs. In reality, raw points can create rather misleading conclusions across teams and eras in terms of a player's offensive impact, because PP time so heavily impacts raw PP production. Many high-end contracts don't make much sense if we are only looking at raw points.

Fans here wanted the Matthews/Marner signings to be based on the idea that they are mediocre PP players, solely because of historically low PP time for players of their caliber. In reality, they were (and have continued to be) elite PP players according to every single measure, and did so despite not even playing with each other for the majority of their pre-signing sample.

I believe the best comparable for Matthews is Malkin, and I believe the best comparable for Marner was Kane or Rantanen (both of whom he was easily better than), but their contracts were consistent with pretty much all high-end players.

The pandemic flat cap has definitely impacted us, as they are incredibly recent signings, and like all contracts, were signed with the expectation of a cap that was going to rise in the coming years. However, all is not lost, and we don't need to make knee-jerk moves. We are a team with strong financial resources, and there are ways that we can exploit that in our current environment to fill in remaining holes. People also really underestimate the quality of Matthews/Marner/Nylander and the potential impact they could have through their primes. If it comes to it down the road, our players also have good value, made better by the fact that most have less salary than their cap hit moving forward.