Speculation: Coronavirus Pandemic VS The Shanaplan

[Leafs1993]

Let me start by saying I know there are far worse problems in the world aside from hockey. So please don't take it the wrong way when I say that this pandemic has derailed the Shanaplan.

When we signed our guys we did it with the idea that the cap would increase during each season, with each passing season allowing more cap space to fill with depth players.

We signed these high contracts knowing in years 4 and 5 they would age a lot better. Now with the cap being flat for 3 years it is nearly impossible to get good value out of any of these contracts and the majority of them will be spent in seasons where we cannot surround them with quality depth and defense.

Trading one of the big contracts isn't really an option either. Matthews and Tavares are untouchable IMO. Marners value is probably the lowest it will ever be. He had a bad season and there aren't many teams that can take his caphit on anyway. Not to mention the huge hole it would leave on our PP, PK and he is the heart and soul of this team without a doubt.

Nylander has the potential to really outperform his contract probably giving him a bit more value. He is not proven at C but has played there before. Still don't think trading Nylander solves anything because we still would need to pay his replacement and we probably wouldn't get a huge return yet.

Other teams may be in similar situations but not to the same extent we are at. What can Shanny and Dubas do to get this plan back on track?

Click to read more...

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

We're in a better cap situation than most teams. Space will be cleared pretty easily if we need it with Kerfoot/Johnsson/Andersen if need be and we have some young guys coming with 11 picks this year.

We're also in a prime position to offer one way deals to a bunch of vets that teams like Ottawa/Florida can't/won't be able to afford, allowing us to add depth pieces easiee than other teams could.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Clearly Marner should've been bridged, otherwise I don't think there's much that Covid changes. Our cap is primarily allocated into positive value players and there will actually be several players that fall into our price range, that wouldn't have otherwise.

 

[Leafs1993]

Clearly Marner should've been bridged, otherwise I don't think there's much that Covid changes. Our cap is primarily allocated into positive value players and there will actually be several players that fall into our price range, that wouldn't have otherwise.

I hope your right about that! Tbh didn't think of that aspect of it.

Any players specifically that you are referring to?

 

[Mickey Marner]

I hope your right about that! Tbh didn't think of that aspect of it.

Any players specifically that you are referring to?

Depth players mostly. Guys like Perry or Gudas. Some notable RFAs might go unqualified and become UFAs. But even Pietrangelo would probably be signed right now if the cap were at ~84 million and climbing.

 

[egd27]

Why do people think that moving $3-4 million dollar 3rd line players without taking salary back and picking up effective "cheap" players is going to be so easy when the entire league is going to be trying to do the same thing?

 

[Leafs1993]

Why do people think that moving $3-4 million dollar 3rd line players without taking salary back and picking up effective "cheap" players is going to be so easy when the entire league is going to be trying to do the same thing?

Nailed it.

 

[kb]

How is this a conspiracy theory? Lol

Yes we regressed this year, I never denied that.

Regressed points-wise slightly with an unreal amount of injuries to key players.

 

[Leafs1993]

Regressed points-wise slightly with an unreal amount of injuries to key players.

Yep. Not to mention that team played like shit for half a year with Babcock.

We will start regressing a lot more if we cant find ways to fix D and depth with a flat cap. Keep in mind that anyone we sign may get in the way of extending Morgan Rielly.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Why do people think that moving $3-4 million dollar 3rd line players without taking salary back and picking up effective "cheap" players is going to be so easy when the entire league is going to be trying to do the same thing?

We already got a 1st+ and no salary back for Kapanen, the other 2 are similar caliber players. Plus the main concern for teams is actual cash owed, and both guys are paid less than their cap hit. They're both due a touch over 2.5 mil a year once we pay their bonuses.

We don't have to take 0 money back. The money we take back can get creative, like picking up AAAA AHLers on one way contracts to bury on the Marlies.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Regressed points-wise slightly with an unreal amount of injuries to key players.

Matthews is FINALLY healthy for a season... and injuries are STILL the excuse.

There will always be excuses. Always.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

The majority of gm's also made decisions based on the cap going up. This is not a reasonable excuse. Every other gm is in the same position. It's mind boggling.

And I think people misunderstand post elc contracts and "outplaying" the contract.

The cba is designed specifically so that your rfa's "outplay" what they would make on the open market. EVERY post elc contract is going to someone based on how they played as a teenager. EVERY post elc contract is made fully knowing that the young player will likely continue improving for years. This is not part of the equation as to how we assess these contracts. You look at comparables with similar numbers who signed at similar times. That's how you assess these contracts. When you do so, you see that all of our core rfa's were significantly overpaid.

 

[Stephen]

I don't think the Shanaplan has been derailed. Some road blocks put in the way but the challenges are the same for all teams and they don't have MLSE's deep pockets.

One great thing about the build is even if the mix of players is questionable and we don't have a well balanced team, we don't have money portioned out to any albatross players and all of our expensive players have trade value.

 

[Leafs1993]

The majority of gm's also made decisions based on the cap going up. This is not a reasonable excuse. Every other gm is in the same position. It's mind boggling.

And I think people misunderstand post elc contracts and "outplaying" the contract.

The cba is designed specifically so that your rfa's "outplay" what they would make on the open market. EVERY post elc contract is going to someone based on how they played as a teenager. EVERY post elc contract is made fully knowing that the young player will likely continue improving for years. This is not part of the equation as to how we assess these contracts. You look at comparables with similar numbers who signed at similar times. That's how you assess these contracts. When you do so, you see that all of our core rfa's were significantly overpaid.

To say all of the GMs are in the same position is false IMO. There are a lot of different variables to consider with each team that would affect the outcome accordingly.

Some teams have their core completely intact and their cap is manageable because they signed their players to a certain cap percentage within the last 4-8 years, whereas we just signed these players to high contracts within the last couple of years with the cap only moving up roughly 2M over a 4 year period.

These contracts were a bit too high before but atleast with cap increase every year it could have been easier to swallow in year 3 and 4+. If we lose Morgan Rielly and we cant build a decent team around these stars (Matthews can walk at end of contract too) this shanaplan can be a disaster

 

[Leafs1993]

the pandemic didn't derail the Shanaplan and that was my point so that's why i said we needed to come up with a new excuse to defend Dubas like a mysterious conspiracy , i didn't say you were mentioning any conspiracy theory

This thread wasn't meant to defend Dubas. I think most people will agree he failed with contracts.

It's meant to discuss reprocussions of the pandemic to the way we built our team.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

always new excuses , lol

the problem is the team was regressing before the pandemic hit so i'm thinking we need to switch gears and go with some type of conspiracy theory to defend Dube for driving this team slid out of the playoff's

Well thats a weak statement. If you said, he fired his coach,made a bad trade for Kadri and let our backup situation go to long its a reason why we regressed at the least. Excuses are actual occurrences.

The way we seen him structure the playing style and type of pkayers is wrong beyond our top 6. Barrie and Ceci he seems to have walked away from. That leaves Kerfoot for kadri. Would you do that trade or anybody for that matter. Barrie and Kerfoot cost more cap too. Now he can’t afford Kerfoot and shouldn’t wantbto either. He os not the type of third line center we need.
Big changes are the only way to fix this

In short i think there are many things to consider why we are in this state before the political/ financial climate. It is a factor that bothers all sports leagues world wide.

 

[egd27]

Plus the main concern for teams is actual cash owed, and both guys are paid less than their cap hit. They're both due a touch over 2.5 mil a year once we pay their bonuses.

I know everyone loves this argument, but here's something to consider.
There are 7 teams projected below the floor, but they all need to sign a number of players.

Team	To Reach Floor	Players Needed	Comment
FLA	440K	11	Don't need 2.5 M players to reach floor
COL	1M	9	Don't need 2.5 M players to reach floor
NYR	1.7M	10	Don't need 2.5 M players to reach floor
DET	4.5M	9	Don't need 2.5 M players to reach floor
NJD	5M	10	Don't need 2.5 M players to reach floor
BUF	12.5M	12	May be interested
OTT	22M	14	May be interested

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

So there's likely 2 teams that may be interested in the getting 3.5M cap for 2.5M cash. And likely 10-15 teams looking to offload $3-4M players.

I don't know how many other teams have players with the same situation, (probably not many) but it sure isn't going to be a sellers market.

 

[Martin Skoula]

I know everyone loves this argument, but here's something to consider.
There are 7 teams projected below the floor, but they all need to sign a number of players.

Team	To Reach Floor	Players Needed	Comment
FLA	440K	11	Don't need 2.5 M players to reach floor
COL	1M	9	Don't need 2.5 M players to reach floor
NYR	1.7M	10	Don't need 2.5 M players to reach floor
DET	4.5M	9	Don't need 2.5 M players to reach floor
NJD	5M	10	Don't need 2.5 M players to reach floor
BUF	12.5M	12	May be interested
OTT	22M	14	May be interested

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

So there's likely 2 teams that may be interested in the getting 3.5M cap for 2.5M cash. And likely 10-15 teams looking to offload $3-4M players.

I don't know how many other teams have players with the same situation, (probably not many) but it sure isn't going to be a sellers market.

I'm not saying Kerfoot/Johnsson are necessary to anyone just to hit the cap floor, I'm saying you can get a guy who produces like a 3+ million dollar UFA while only paying him 2.5 in cash with minimal signing bonuses remaining. The teams that need to reach the floor still want to at least pretend to be competitive I'd imagine, getting a decent middle-6 guy for the same cash as an Islander's 4th liner is appealing. The only real problem is going to be, like you said, that there's other teams looking to sell middle-6ers. Looking at the UFA market, unless we get an overwhelming amount of unqualified RFAs, there's maybe 4-5 guys clearly better than Kerfoot/Johnsson available and they're all older and going to cost 4+ mil.

I don't think it's going to be a problem to move one or both of them if that's what is decided on, maybe we get a 2nd and a 3rd instead of 2 2nds from someone or take back a 400k one-way AHL contract. It certainly isn't going to be us moving them for a 7th or taking back ugly contracts.

 

[Dekes For Days]

You look at comparables with similar numbers who signed at similar times. That's how you assess these contracts. When you do so, you see that all of our core rfa's were significantly overpaid.

Actually, when you do so, you see that all of our core RFAs were fairly paid.

 

[Leafs1993]

Actually, when you do so, you see that all of our core RFAs were fairly paid.

If they signed for 8 years I may agree with you

 

[Menzinger]

Why do people think that moving $3-4 million dollar 3rd line players without taking salary back and picking up effective "cheap" players is going to be so easy when the entire league is going to be trying to do the same thing?

Beacuse those players salaries are lower than their caphits

 

[egd27]

Beacuse those players salaries are lower than their caphits

Read my post after the one you quoted....it will address this.

 

[Dekes For Days]

If they signed for 8 years I may agree with you

If they signed for 8 years, they'd be significantly underpaid relative to their comparables.

Read my post after the one you quoted....it will address this.

It did not address that. It has nothing to do with the cap floor.

 

[Terrible GM]

This thread wasn't meant to defend Dubas. I think most people will agree he failed with contracts.

It's meant to discuss reprocussions of the pandemic to the way we built our team.

The only thing he failed at was predicting a world pandemic. Dubas and Pridham likely had multiple scenarios drawn up for fitting future contracts under the cap based on minimum and maximum growth, but no one could predict a flat cap for multiple years. Over paying, or slightly over paying stars is something I can live with after YEARS of over paying scrubs. I know it's popular to hate on Dubas, but compared to previous GM's over the past 2 decades, I just don't see a problem (yet).

With a flap cap, now the wrench in their plans is likely the room they predicted for extending Rielly and bringing in RD UFA's. Realistically Dubas has an out (the pandemic cap) now to trade either Marner or Nylander and bring in young players on ELC or RFA. With out either one of these players, the team still has enough offense to win in the playoffs.

 

[kb]

The only thing he failed at was predicting a world pandemic. Dubas and Pridham likely had multiple scenarios drawn up for fitting future contracts under the cap based on minimum and maximum growth, but no one could predict a flat cap for multiple years. Over paying, or slightly over paying stars is something I can live with after YEARS of over paying scrubs. I know it's popular to hate on Dubas, but compared to previous GM's over the past 2 decades, I just don't see a problem (yet).

With a flap cap, now the wrench in their plans is likely the room they predicted for extending Rielly and bringing in RD UFA's. Realistically Dubas has an out (the pandemic cap) now to trade either Marner or Nylander and bring in young players on ELC or RFA. With out either one of these players, the team still has enough offense to win in the playoffs.

Yes, this is all correct. There is a lot of flexibility built in with nearly no NTC/NMC contracts, and pretty much all contracts having value even in a flat cap/pandemic time.
Overpaying young stars on their upward trajectory does not compare to overpaying bottom 6 players, or star players who are at their apex and/or on a downward trajectory. The latter is how you screw up your team now and in the future. Paying for past peak performance without reasonable expectation of receiving that same level of performance is what kills teams, not the 3 kids contracts. It's a hard concept to grasp for some, but this is why the Leafs are well set up now and into the future. If the flat cap forces a trade of one of the core, there is a ton of value there and the return can reasonably be expected to be a real hockey trade, and not a cap dump.