Post-Game Talk: Columbus

[Machinehead]

Is that a championship lineup, though, swapping out the Carpenters and Reaves for Cuylle and Berard?

I am not so sure.

Othmann is a piece. The rest I lack confidence till I see that they are more that what I'd normally expect players selected in their spots to be.

I'm not exactly hard looking at any of these

These four teams are probably the class of the league.

I think "the Rangers have too much skill" is a ridiculous notion and it comes mostly from the "country club" people. Once you're on that fairy tale, you'll never get off of it.

At the same time, though, the think folks on the other side of that argument are overestimating how far off we are.

It's a cap league. Every team has 3-5 stars and then a bunch of rudimentary nonsense.

 

[DanielBrassard]

This was one of Kakkos more noticeable defensive games he’s played.
Made multiple great/key plays in the Dzone, minus for the icing.

Just seems like he can’t buy an assist no matter what set up.

& still say his speed is holding him back from reaching his ceiling. That’s where he can make the biggest gain

you're right about his speed holding him back. I've loved his game this year but that extra gear would have gone a long way to allowing him to get on the inside more often, allow him to be more of a threat off the rush and attacking defenders 1on-1. Unfortunately the skating likely has reached it's maxim, he's in his 4th year.

 

[bobbop]

Hey are you going to the game Sunday in AZ? I’ll be there with some friends if you wanna meet up.

You bet! Section 117, Row P. My grandson and I will be by the Rangers bench during the warmups. I be wearing Fox White, He is wearing Kreider Blue.

 

[mas0764]

I'm not exactly hard looking at any of these

View attachment 598253

View attachment 598254
View attachment 598255

View attachment 598256

These four teams are probably the class of the league.

I think "the Rangers have too much skill" is a ridiculous notion and it comes mostly from the "country club" people. Once you're on that fairy tale, you'll never get off of it.

At the same time, though, the think folks on the other side of that argument are overestimating how far off we are.

It's a cap league. Every team has 3-5 stars and then a bunch of rudimentary nonsense.

It seems that way but at the same time this is the breakdown, granted from 2020, of Dom L over at the Athletic analyzing the last ten years of Cup winners. Looking at Sam Bennett and trying to argue what quality he is, is pretty subjective, so using GSVA is as good a metric as any. I don't know if you have an Athletic subscription or not so I'll try to post some of the screen grabs.

Cup Checklist: Analyzing the rosters from the last decade of champions

There are lessons to be learned from past winners; guidelines for how a team’s roster should be made up.

theathletic.com

He summarizes:

Based on the above chart, a team that fancies itself a contender is looking at the following checklist in terms of top of the lineup players.

• Elite first-line centre that’s among the very best players in the world.
• Elite first-line winger to support the elite centre.
• Two other top-line wingers on each of the top two lines.
• Top-line centre to play behind the elite centre.
• Two more top-six forwards for depth in the middle six.
• Elite No. 1 defenceman.
• A second No. 1 defenceman to play behind him.
• A top pairing defenceman to help anchor a strong second pair with the No. 2.
• Another top-pairing calibre defender to crush soft minutes on the third pair.
• A top 10 calibre starting goaltender.

And that’s without mentioning two capable third-liners, another steady top four defenceman who can play on the top pair, and making sure no one on the fourth line or bottom pair is replacement level.

He also cites that these boxes can be checked with "players playing at elite levels in these roles at the right times."

In fairness, maybe no team has every one of these things exactly, and this was his breakdown of the Final 8 in summer of '21, a year in which the Lightning would go on to win the Cup.

So maybe we are not far off, but I look at our roster and see a way to go, at least in terms of development, sometimes.

I specifically would note -

1) Panarin and Zibanejad need to not fall off to mark the top two bullet points.
2) Kakko and Laf have to become, by the metrics, "top line wingers" to play on each of the other top two lines. I tend to aim more Rantanen level, not Kreider "first liner" level.
3) Another "top line center" to play behind the elite center (Zibanejad). I don't think Trocheck qualifies, but, as Dom also points out, you can make up here or there by being a little better or worse in some areas.
4) Two more top-six forwards for depth in the middle six (Kreider? Chytil? Kravtsov? Othmann? Other than Kreider - sometimes - none of those others have made it yet).
5) Fox is your elite #1.
6) Trouba is NOT your second "number 1 defenseman." Hopefully it's Miller.
7) Maybe Trouba is the "top pair caliber defenseman" to crush softer minutes, but I have my doubts his salary will allow it long term.
8) Shesterkin is Shesterkin.

I mean, we are not THAT far off, but we aren't there yet either. Kakko, Lafreniere, and a couple of Chytil/Krav/Othmann need to arrive with top line/top 6 caliber performances, and if they don't, we are in trouble. If they don't before Zibanejad and Panarin decline, we are also in trouble. If they ascend to mega-stars after Zibanejad and Panarin decline, then we are better off, but still probably need two more top-6 or top-line caliber players (hence the dramatic need to hit on these two first round picks in this draft). I kinda think if we blow this draft or trade away picks for rentals we may be blowing our chances to win a Cup, or at least blowing our chance to win a Cup down the line a bit. Whereas right now we have that chance within our grasp.

Finally, FWIW, here is the GSVA projections for this current team:

Big jumps needed from Kakko and Lafreniere into the mid-high 2.0's. Improvement from Trocheck's projected 1.9 or make up elsewhere. Jumps from Chytil and Kravtsov into the 1.0's, and then finding a 1.0 replacement for Goodrow, and then players who are not net negatives on the fourth line (Blais is fine there, Carpenter and Reaves are not, hence why we have to get Rydahl and Vesey in there).

Defense needs work too but that's coming from Jones, Schneider, and Robertson just as they get older.

 

[Machinehead]

It seems that way but at the same time this is the breakdown, granted from 2020, of Dom L over at the Athletic analyzing the last ten years of Cup winners. Looking at Sam Bennett and trying to argue what quality he is, is pretty subjective, so using GSVA is as good a metric as any. I don't know if you have an Athletic subscription or not so I'll try to post some of the screen grabs.

Cup Checklist: Analyzing the rosters from the last decade of champions

There are lessons to be learned from past winners; guidelines for how a team’s roster should be made up.

theathletic.com

View attachment 598260

He summarizes:

Based on the above chart, a team that fancies itself a contender is looking at the following checklist in terms of top of the lineup players.

• Elite first-line centre that’s among the very best players in the world.
• Elite first-line winger to support the elite centre.
• Two other top-line wingers on each of the top two lines.
• Top-line centre to play behind the elite centre.
• Two more top-six forwards for depth in the middle six.
• Elite No. 1 defenceman.
• A second No. 1 defenceman to play behind him.
• A top pairing defenceman to help anchor a strong second pair with the No. 2.
• Another top-pairing calibre defender to crush soft minutes on the third pair.
• A top 10 calibre starting goaltender.

And that’s without mentioning two capable third-liners, another steady top four defenceman who can play on the top pair, and making sure no one on the fourth line or bottom pair is replacement level.

He also cites that these boxes can be checked with "players playing at elite levels in these roles at the right times."

In fairness, maybe no team has every one of these things exactly, and this was his breakdown of the Final 8 in summer of '21, a year in which the Lightning would go on to win the Cup.

View attachment 598266

So maybe we are not far off, but I look at our roster and see a way to go, at least in terms of development, sometimes.

I specifically would note -

1) Panarin and Zibanejad need to not fall off to mark the top two bullet points.
2) Kakko and Laf have to become, by the metrics, "top line wingers" to play on each of the other top two lines. I tend to aim more Rantanen level, not Kreider "first liner" level.
3) Another "top line center" to play behind the elite center (Zibanejad). I don't think Trocheck qualifies, but, as Dom also points out, you can make up here or there by being a little better or worse in some areas.
4) Two more top-six forwards for depth in the middle six (Kreider? Chytil? Kravtsov? Othmann? Other than Kreider - sometimes - none of those others have made it yet).
5) Fox is your elite #1.
6) Trouba is NOT your second "number 1 defenseman." Hopefully it's Miller.
7) Maybe Trouba is the "top pair caliber defenseman" to crush softer minutes, but I have my doubts his salary will allow it long term.
8) Shesterkin is Shesterkin.

I mean, we are not THAT far off, but we aren't there yet either. Kakko, Lafreniere, and a couple of Chytil/Krav/Othmann need to arrive with top line/top 6 caliber performances, and if they don't, we are in trouble. If they don't before Zibanejad and Panarin decline, we are also in trouble. If they ascend to mega-stars after Zibanejad and Panarin decline, then we are better off, but still probably need two more top-6 or top-line caliber players (hence the dramatic need to hit on these two first round picks in this draft). I kinda think if we blow this draft or trade away picks for rentals we may be blowing our chances to win a Cup, or at least blowing our chance to win a Cup down the line a bit. Whereas right now we have that chance within our grasp.

If we're not that far off then we can probably correct it without more years of drafting high.

Trading Kreider for a draft pick that has a 95% chance of being worse than Kreider isn't helping our top six any.

I agree that this team is off the mark for a championship roster but they're also well past the stage of building through the draft.

 

[JohnC]

I'm not really going to waste time overreacting to the results of game 6, but I genuinely don't get why they got so in their head about how they played defensively after the first 3 games. They were playing with so much more pace and were way more assertive with the puck, and it made it really hard for teams to defend them. They should've kept that style going and let the rest of their structure fall into place.

This is really it. Why kill a team with a dynamite offense that was playing relatively well defensively just because there were miscues that led to goals against? It’s not even like the miscues weren’t simply fixes!

 

[mas0764]

If we're not that far off then we can probably correct it without more years of drafting high.

Trading Kreider for a draft pick that has a 95% chance of being worse than Kreider isn't helping our top six any.

I agree that this team is off the mark for a championship roster but they're also well past the stage of building through the draft.

Well the Kreider thing is water under the bridge. As is the Buch debacle which could have solved a ton of what ails us if we had leveraged that correctly.

The new hill I'm going to die on is using those two picks in this coming draft to select forwards (centers). We need like a Jarvis or Lundell, and a Wyatt Johnston or Dylan Holloway out of those two picks.

We aren't too far but we also need insulation for pending declines of Kreider, Panarin, Zibanejad and Trocheck.

 

[bleedblue94]

Either Shesty is getting the b2b, which I'd laugh if it does happen and he gets hurt....
-or
Halak plays 2 out of 3.... in this case, why?

we have another b2b right after this one... so he was getting in games regardless.

Bc there are some who believe Igor should be in the 50-55 game range. Nyr has a 10 games in 20 days in October. That's a heavy schedule start. It's not as simple as 3 in 4 and whatever else. A lot of teams look at the schedule in 14 day segments or 30 day segments to plot out workloads for goalies. They don't kneejerk react to a bad loss nor do they only concentrate on 3 in 4. If you overplay Igor early in the season and he pulls his groin and suddenly halak is your #1 you'll have bigger issues then starting halak against the blue jackets in October.

 

[cheech70]

Chychrun. Yandle 2.0.

Robertson, Kravtsov, 2023 NYR 1st, conditional 2024 2nd that turns into a 1st if the Rangers win the Cup in either 2023 OR 2024 for Chychrun at 50%. Gives the Rangers Chychrun at a sub 3 million cap hit for two runs this year and next.

Deal Lindgren in the summer to get some of those picks back.

This is the move. Not Kane.

I love it......can we pay less?

 

[SnowblindNYR]

I don't know if this team is more high picks away from where they need to be in a timeline that makes sense. What are they gonna get, another Kravtsov? He's not helping now.

This team needs get more out of their young forwards. There's too many of them for ALL of them to not have what it takes. Something is off with development.

I know the argument is that the kids would get more time if we kept rebuilding. They're getting the time now and the points still aren't there even though I think Kakko has been excellent overall.

I know that I freaked out as per usual about this game, but just two games ago we were drooling at the play of Laf and Kakko. Are we really throwing that all away after two horrible games?

BTW, did anyone else feel like the Rangers held their sticks more tightly on offense these two games because they were feeling the pressure of being the overwhelming favorites in these two games?

 

[duhmetreE]

Bc there are some who believe Igor should be in the 50-55 game range. Nyr has a 10 games in 20 days in October. That's a heavy schedule start. It's not as simple as 3 in 4 and whatever else. A lot of teams look at the schedule in 14 day segments or 30 day segments to plot out workloads for goalies. They don't kneejerk react to a bad loss nor do they only concentrate on 3 in 4. If you overplay Igor early in the season and he pulls his groin and suddenly halak is your #1 you'll have bigger issues then starting halak against the blue jackets in October.

wat?

Playing Halak 2 out of 3 and 3 out of 5 is not the answer.

 

[will1066]

I know that I freaked out as per usual about this game, but just two games ago we were drooling at the play of Laf and Kakko. Are we really throwing that all away after two horrible games?

BTW, did anyone else feel like the Rangers held their sticks more tightly on offense these two games because they were feeling the pressure of being the overwhelming favorites in these two games?

Yes, especially on the power play. It was noticeable. They were pressing. It didn't help that Tarasov was frustrating them.

 

[will1066]

This is really it. Why kill a team with a dynamite offense that was playing relatively well defensively just because there were miscues that led to goals against? It’s not even like the miscues weren’t simply fixes!

The players themselves were dissatisfied with their defensive play, and Fox notably said that type of play isn't sustainable. I thought they were overly aggressive on offense and the other team's forwards kept getting past their defensemen in transition.

 

[duhmetreE]

It seems that way but at the same time this is the breakdown, granted from 2020, of Dom L over at the Athletic analyzing the last ten years of Cup winners. Looking at Sam Bennett and trying to argue what quality he is, is pretty subjective, so using GSVA is as good a metric as any. I don't know if you have an Athletic subscription or not so I'll try to post some of the screen grabs.

Cup Checklist: Analyzing the rosters from the last decade of champions

There are lessons to be learned from past winners; guidelines for how a team’s roster should be made up.

theathletic.com

View attachment 598260

He summarizes:

Based on the above chart, a team that fancies itself a contender is looking at the following checklist in terms of top of the lineup players.

• Elite first-line centre that’s among the very best players in the world.
• Elite first-line winger to support the elite centre.
• Two other top-line wingers on each of the top two lines.
• Top-line centre to play behind the elite centre.
• Two more top-six forwards for depth in the middle six.
• Elite No. 1 defenceman.
• A second No. 1 defenceman to play behind him.
• A top pairing defenceman to help anchor a strong second pair with the No. 2.
• Another top-pairing calibre defender to crush soft minutes on the third pair.
• A top 10 calibre starting goaltender.

And that’s without mentioning two capable third-liners, another steady top four defenceman who can play on the top pair, and making sure no one on the fourth line or bottom pair is replacement level.

He also cites that these boxes can be checked with "players playing at elite levels in these roles at the right times."

In fairness, maybe no team has every one of these things exactly, and this was his breakdown of the Final 8 in summer of '21, a year in which the Lightning would go on to win the Cup.

View attachment 598266

So maybe we are not far off, but I look at our roster and see a way to go, at least in terms of development, sometimes.

I specifically would note -

1) Panarin and Zibanejad need to not fall off to mark the top two bullet points.
2) Kakko and Laf have to become, by the metrics, "top line wingers" to play on each of the other top two lines. I tend to aim more Rantanen level, not Kreider "first liner" level.
3) Another "top line center" to play behind the elite center (Zibanejad). I don't think Trocheck qualifies, but, as Dom also points out, you can make up here or there by being a little better or worse in some areas.
4) Two more top-six forwards for depth in the middle six (Kreider? Chytil? Kravtsov? Othmann? Other than Kreider - sometimes - none of those others have made it yet).
5) Fox is your elite #1.
6) Trouba is NOT your second "number 1 defenseman." Hopefully it's Miller.
7) Maybe Trouba is the "top pair caliber defenseman" to crush softer minutes, but I have my doubts his salary will allow it long term.
8) Shesterkin is Shesterkin.

I mean, we are not THAT far off, but we aren't there yet either. Kakko, Lafreniere, and a couple of Chytil/Krav/Othmann need to arrive with top line/top 6 caliber performances, and if they don't, we are in trouble. If they don't before Zibanejad and Panarin decline, we are also in trouble. If they ascend to mega-stars after Zibanejad and Panarin decline, then we are better off, but still probably need two more top-6 or top-line caliber players (hence the dramatic need to hit on these two first round picks in this draft). I kinda think if we blow this draft or trade away picks for rentals we may be blowing our chances to win a Cup, or at least blowing our chance to win a Cup down the line a bit. Whereas right now we have that chance within our grasp.

Finally, FWIW, here is the GSVA projections for this current team:

View attachment 598267

Big jumps needed from Kakko and Lafreniere into the mid-high 2.0's. Improvement from Trocheck's projected 1.9 or make up elsewhere. Jumps from Chytil and Kravtsov into the 1.0's, and then finding a 1.0 replacement for Goodrow, and then players who are not net negatives on the fourth line (Blais is fine there, Carpenter and Reaves are not, hence why we have to get Rydahl and Vesey in there).

Defense needs work too but that's coming from Jones, Schneider, and Robertson just as they get older.

This is not predictive though IMO.. It's essentially telling you, to win a cup, you need good players and for those players to produce... Mind blowing criteria, I know.... It's not some secret sauce. You need a top6 that is producing. You need a strong top4D.

It's not forward looking as in, if I told you Kadri was a 2C on a winning team a few years ago, you would have laughed. If I told you Nichuskin was a top winger a few years ago, you would have laughed. If I told you Toews was a top pairing defenseman, on a cup team.... you would have laughed.

I think it's more important finding a 'winning formula' and execution. Players will find success as a symptom. We have a PP. Our 'formula' is the issue right now IMO

 

[Machinehead]

I know that I freaked out as per usual about this game, but just two games ago we were drooling at the play of Laf and Kakko. Are we really throwing that all away after two horrible games?

BTW, did anyone else feel like the Rangers held their sticks more tightly on offense these two games because they were feeling the pressure of being the overwhelming favorites in these two games?

They've been good (more so Kakko) but I think it's also true that they never score when they're good and it's becoming habitual.

 

[CLW]

You guys complaining about halak playing last night are lost. You need a backup to play games. Columbus isnt a top team, a coach should be able to expect his team to bounce back from the shark's embarrassment and bring a legit effort to the ice yesterday. Even with a couple bad goals the rangers as a team should be able to beat columbus. The only goal nyr scores was on a gift from the jackets. Nyr was awful (so was halak) but putting that on halak alone is stupid. He was signed bc they think he can do a good job as the backup here. He has to play games. Columbus isnt a team you should have to shield from. The rangers should be better than this.

I think it's more that the team seems to take Halak as a sign to not go 100%. They don't dare to slack in front of Igor.

 

[I Eat Crow]

I love it......can we pay less?

Figure Robertson is the cost of getting Chychrun at 50% off. Kravtsov, 1st, 2nd otherwise I think is fair value?

 

[Synergy27]

This is not predictive though IMO.. It's essentially telling you, to win a cup, you need good players and for those players to produce... Mind blowing criteria, I know.... It's not some secret sauce. You need a top6 that is producing. You need a strong top4D.

It's not forward looking as in, if I told you Kadri was a 2C on a winning team a few years ago, you would have laughed. If I told you Nichuskin was a top winger a few years ago, you would have laughed. If I told you Toews was a top pairing defenseman, on a cup team.... you would have laughed.

I think it's more important finding a 'winning formula' and execution. Players will find success as a symptom. We have a PP. Our 'formula' is the issue right now IMO

My read as well. That looked like a whole bunch of work to confirm what everyone already knows.

You also need a metric f*** ton of luck. The playoffs almost always come down to bounces and other dumb shit (injuries, etc.).

Look at last season. Crosby injury. Trouba dumb decision up 2-0 in game three. The margins are razor thin everywhere and the cap ensures that that will always be the case.

 

[Larrybiv]

Starting the sieve Halak was malpractice. And the team on offense still wants to be Harlem Globetrotters out there. Last game was maybe a trap game, what's the excuse this game?

what was the "reasoning" in starting him? Shesty nurturing something? Not that Columbus is a bad team (young) but not there yet, but losing to the Sharks wasn't bad enough? At the GARDEN?
4 points they "have to" have.
They lose the division by 1-3 points, and they will have to look no further than being bitten by a Sharks bite on skates, wearing a Blue Suede Jacket. Pathetic

 

[Larrybiv]

I feel bad for whoever paid money to see that game. Terrible game.

I don't ordinarily think that, but man......that was what came to mind, hearing the garden practically silent with 10 minutes to go, and game still within reach. It was like they all "fell asleep", as that was a snoozefest and one of the most boring, lifeless games I have seen in quite some time.

 

[will1066]

How I feel about the 3-2-1 start

 

[Larrybiv]

I was a little surprised but I get the rationale too. Tuesday is against the defending Stanley Cup champs, Wednesday is a divisional game with a 4 point swing against a team you may be competing against in the standings. Igor does the back to back and you hope Halak is solid against a team on the 2nd end of a back to back in less than 24 hours that hasn't played well with their backup. It blew up in their face though.

He gambled and LOST. I felt last season in a similar scenario, he would grab the first 2 pts. with Shesty and happily took a split in b2b tough games with Georgiev being the sacrificial lamb.
Now what? Play Shesty b2b in which he avoided at every opportunity last season? What if Shesty gets shelled vs the Champs? I guess come right back with him.
Team needs to break this 2 game funk......ASAP!

 

[Larrybiv]

Bring back Quinn!

more development obviously needed.

 

[duhmetreE]

Bring back Quinn!

I didn't realize how right people were......

Quinn made Fox.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

what was the "reasoning" in starting him? Shesty nurturing something? Not that Columbus is a bad team (young) but not there yet, but losing to the Sharks wasn't bad enough? At the GARDEN?
4 points they "have to" have.
They lose the division by 1-3 points, and they will have to look no further than being bitten by a Sharks bite on skates, wearing a Blue Suede Jacket. Pathetic

If people here are right and he'll start Igor both Tue and Wed, I take it back because it's tough to start Igor 3 in 4. I just assumed as over his whole tenure that Igor's getting one game of the back to back.