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Value of: Colorado Offer Sheeting Mark Stone

danielpalfredsson

danielpalfredsson

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Aug 14, 2013
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The absolute minimum I can see a team successfully offer sheeting Stone for would be two 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd. That would be (roughly) a 5 year 10.14M deal for a total of 50.7M over five seasons. This is because, Stone goes for max term unless he gets an overpayment on AAV. Nothing else makes sense.

If we're talking about a 7 year deal, the only way to offer sheet Stone is to offer up four picks. If a team offers Stone 7 years 7.24M, first he probably doesn't sign that, second the Senators almost certainly match that. That would be roughly the most any team can offer on a 7 year term and only give up two 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd. Anything above that on a 7 year term is four firsts.

If Stone is foolish enough to sign an offer sheet below market value at 5 years 8M, Sens also most likely match that, since that'd be an excellent contract. I'd arguably rather have Stone at 5 years 8M than 7 years 7.25M.

Stone isn't risking 7 years 7.24M on an offer sheet because if the Senators match, any NMC or NTC agreed with the previous team is void. He'd possibly be setting himself up to get traded a year down the line to a team he doesn't want to go to.

Am I right to assume if Stone elects to go to arbitration, the Senators can opt for a 2 year term at the settlement amount? If so, I wonder if both sides are far apart prior to July 5th, if Stone would forgo arbitration and instead sign his qualifying offer at 1 year 4.5M. That would ensure that he'd either get a monster extension with Ottawa on January 1st, or he'd get traded elsewhere and be able to sign one because the Senators aren't losing him for nothing.

Ultimately, I don't think the team will have an issue extending Stone. Give both him and Duchene matching 7-8 year deals in the 7.25M-8M range.
 
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TheBradyBunch

TheBradyBunch

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Dec 17, 2008
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Lets say the Sens give Stone a brutally low offer - 6.5mil x 8yrs. That's 52mil.

If Colorado matches that and gives him 52mil over 7 years (7.4m), that puts his salary over 5 years at 10.4mil per year.

If Colorado does that, and Stone signs, and Ottawa does not match, the Sens will get four 1st rounders.

This is basically the only way Colorado gets Stone:
1) Ottawa low balls Stone.
2) Colorado offers him the same or more money over fewer years.
3) Ottawa does not match the signed offer sheet.
4) Colorado surrenders four 1st rounders.
 

Michel Beauchamp

Canadiens' fan since 1958
Mar 17, 2008
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broc said:
Sakic dos this, someone does the same thing to him next season for Rantanen. Go ahead.
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:huh:

And how is that a problem ?

He will match unless it is an outrageously hostile offer, in which case he'll take the picks.

PS: Have the Flyers suffered from the hostile offer sheet that Weber signed ?
 
Freudian

Freudian

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Jul 3, 2003
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Doesn't make sense give Stone a seven year offer sheet when a five year offer sheet is a) harder for Ottawa to match because of higher AAV and b) means much less picks going Ottawas way.
 

Michel Beauchamp

Canadiens' fan since 1958
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Freudian said:
Doesn't make sense give Stone a seven year offer sheet when a five year offer sheet is a) harder for Ottawa to match because of higher AAV and b) means much less picks going Ottawas way.
Click to expand...
You seem to forget that Stone has a say in the matter.

Wouldn't he sign a 8-year deal for $56M rather than a 5-year deal for $40M ?

That's $16M more guaranteed.

Would he risk a possible career-ending injury for a higher AAV ?
 
Freudian

Freudian

Clearly deranged
Jul 3, 2003
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beauchamp said:
You seem to forget that Stone has a say in the matter.

Wouldn't he sign a 8-year deal for $56M rather than a 5-year deal for $40M ?

That's $16M more guaranteed.

Would he risk a possible career-ending injury for a higher AAV ?
Click to expand...

Players don't go around expecting a career ending injury. If he signs a five year contract he will have his next contract end at 31 and be in line for another big contract.
 
Hasbro

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beauchamp said:
You seem to forget that Stone has a say in the matter.

Wouldn't he sign a 8-year deal for $56M rather than a 5-year deal for $40M ?

That's $16M more guaranteed.

Would he risk a possible career-ending injury for a higher AAV ?
Click to expand...
A ticket off of a team in turmoil might come as a relief.
 

50 in 07

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Feb 10, 2016
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Hasbro said:
A ticket off of a team in turmoil might come as a relief.
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This is some horrendous logic. Hypothetically, if he wanted out, if he signed an offer sheet he would have to be 100% sure that Ottawa wouldn't match because if they did he'd actually be stuck in Ottawa. Why would he take that risk when he could simply ask for a trade like literally every other player that's wanted to get moved.

Of course this is also ignoring the fact that he's outright said he wants to stay in Ottawa long term and be part of the solution.
 
Mark Stones Spleen

Mark Stones Spleen

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I can't tell if avs fans posting here are 11 years old or why it's hard to comprehend that although the idea behind offer sheeting Stone makes sense, that it will get matched.

Even though Melnyk is a cheap f***, we aren't getting ripped off on Stone. Either it's too expensive where it turns to 4 first round picks, or it gets matched. And if it's somehow still too expensive for our internal budget but not 4 first round picks, Dorian matches and trades Stone for a haul next season.
 
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senators101 said:
I can't tell if avs fans posting here are 11 years old or why it's hard to comprehend that although the idea behind offer sheeting Stone makes sense, that it will get matched.
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There's some upside to Melnyk being forced to shell out to keep a guy if he compensates by stripping salary elsewhere on the roster.
 
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50 in 07 said:
This is some horrendous logic. Hypothetically, if he wanted out, if he signed an offer sheet he would have to be 100% sure that Ottawa wouldn't match because if they did he'd actually be stuck in Ottawa. Why would he take that risk when he could simply ask for a trade like literally every other player that's wanted to get moved.

Of course this is also ignoring the fact that he's outright said he wants to stay in Ottawa long term and be part of the solution.
Click to expand...
Just saying there's he might see an upside to playing for another team.
 
Nac Mac Feegle

Nac Mac Feegle

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Jun 10, 2011
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Go right ahead.

All this does is open Colorado up to the rest of the league for poaching all those kids you have. You reap what you sow. :naughty:
 
Cousin Eddie

Cousin Eddie

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Nov 3, 2006
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Nac Mac Feegle said:
Go right ahead.

All this does is open Colorado up to the rest of the league for poaching all those kids you have. You reap what you sow. :naughty:
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Colorado is already open up for the rest of the league for poaching all those kids. It’s part of the CBA.

Don’t know why people keep saying this. You didn’t see Nashville go after any of Phillys kids. You didn’t see Colorado go after Calgary. It’s a fun myth to make up but it doesn’t happen.
 
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