Tbh, fixing this team’s gaping holes is rather obvious to me. People seem to be fixated on either fixing the roster or fixing the coaching, mention one and someone chimes in with the other. It’s both, the roster needs to be improved, fairly significantly and imo it’s going to take a new coach to put the proper pieces and plan in place.
Most of this thread over the last couple of days actually focuses mostly on the degree to which coaching actually matters. I’ve long held the opinion it’s much less important than how your roster is comprised but does play a pretty integral role into how that composition works together and in which way. Maurice’s stay here and level of success seems to be largely based on the level of talent he’s been afforded. The 17-18 team was very talented and did very well, the 18-19 team was very talented and did very well until injuries derailed their momentum. His teams since then have been undoubtedly weaker and the results have suffered.
I don’t think we’ll see a team as strong as the one we saw in 17-18 and for the first half of 18-19. At the very least the type of talent will be a different mix from those teams for certain. That’s where my hesitation with Maurice lies. Despite the inferior talent he’s been working with the last couple of years, I don’t see them playing with any kind of discernible identity that makes me believe Maurice can instill that given some more talent.
So my question has never been whether Maurice or any other coach can turn this team into a contender. It’s which one can turn a better one into a contender. I’m not sure which one might, and it could be a number of them. I just don’t have faith Maurice is one of them. I certainly could be wrong and considering it’s pretty obvious he’s sticking around, I hope I am.
I think the biggest questions around the Jets are related to the roster. They absolutely need to fix their top-4 D.
But there's also a huge question mark around their 2nd line, and specifically whether Dubois can give the Jets the big, effective 2C they need. If he gets back to that level, then the Jets will be able to put together a formidable forward group. But if Dubois doesn't get to that level, they have some deeper problems that no coach can fix.
I guess my view is that there are really only 3 categories of teams...
1 - Cup contenders
2 - Bubble teams
3 - Rebuild teams
Cup contenders are the small number of teams that have enough talent and depth at forward, a solid enough D, and high-level goaltending to be legitimate threats to win 16 playoff games.
Bubble teams have some strong assets, but a significant deficiency at forward, D or goaltending, that makes them very unlikely to be able to sustain performance to win 4 playoff series.
Rebuild teams have major deficits in multiple areas and need to add high end talent and depth across multiple positions.
In 2017/18 and 2018/19 (before injuries), I would say that the Jets had a Cup contender roster. The 2018/19 season was derailed in large measure by losing Buff and then Morrissey, and then running into a really hot first round playoff opponent. I actually think the Jets might have been a real handful that season if they had prevailed vs StL, and I don't think they were that far off. But you could tell that they weren't as sharp as they needed to be.
In 2019/20, they dropped clearly into the "Bubble" range, with strong forwards and goaltending. But their D has been atrocious, so they really weren't close to a Cup contender. Just getting to the playoffs was about all that could be realistically expected.
I'm not sure any coach can elevate a Bubble team to a Cup contender consistently. I also think it's difficult to predict whether a coach can take a Cup contender deep in the playoffs. Bednar and the Avs are a good example this year. Maybe Keefe, too. A couple of years ago it was Cooper. In each case, the roster looked quite dominant, but they didn't meet expectations. I'm not sure that means they can't coach at that level. In Cooper's case in TB, they actually made some interesting changes to their D and Forwards that seemed to click. Was it the roster changes, or just better coaching, or just some different luck?
For the Jets, I think they can redevelop this line-up into a Cup contender, assuming that Dubois fulfills his potential at 2C. I think adding a top pairing D via trade or free agency, and adding another top-4 D with an internal or external replacement, fills out the D roster well enough. Then I guess we'll get to see if Maurice has the wherewithal to put this team back into contender status.
