Chris Higgins or Kyle Wellwood or Spezza - How is a prospect judged ??

[sunb]

Littler offensively gifted players certainly proved that they can produce points and be successful despite the height but never carry the Franchise tag .. Pierre Marc Bouchard , small player High draft pick, offensively gifted ..yet you will not likely see that tag given to him ... Briere etc ..

Hahaha... Ok you win.

Your "littler players" theory is dynamite.


Either way, I think you're taking this from a akward perspective. The reason why Marty St. Louis isn't tagged as a franchise player because people only saw his potential when he was 28 years old. 5'9'' Paul Kariya, 5'6'' Theo Fleury and 5'9'' Stan Mikita were all thought to be franchise players. Your argument of "littler players" is suspec.

 

[Mess]

This thread is a discussion of semantics. At the NHL and the AHL level, Spezza is a far more effective player than Wellwood. Using OHL statistics is silly, you might as well compare Spezza to Corey Locke. I really don't know hom much live hockey you have watched but size and strength is a huge issue at higher levels of play. Also, Spezza uses his size very effectively to control the puck (see Jason Allison and Mats Sundin). How many 5'9"-5'10" players without elite skating are in the NHL and how good are they? I can't think of a single first liner, Ribeiro is probably the closest. St. Louis and Fleury have a raw skating ability that Wellwood doesn't posses. Spezza is already a top-two centre and will be a number one centre when the NHL resumes. Wellwood just doesn't have the tools to be as good as him. This thread is becoming pointless.

Of couse you are stating the BLATENTLY OBVIOUS that everyone knows .. I didn't say that Wellwood is the player Spezza is ..just pondering if in comparison he can offensively produce at a simialr level ..

The only thing pointless in fact is your contribution to it .... because you do not understand the dicussion .. I started out picking 2 prospect Higgins Top 50 and Wellwood and compared them ... and the conclusion was that Higgins around 2-way game combined with his speed separated them. .Giving the advantage to Higgins ... not I am comparing him to another young player his age ..and am wondering if the outcome is any different ..Spezza alos like Wellwood needs to be on the top 2 lines as a scorer and not all 4 lines like a 2 way player like Higgins ..

 

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Spezza alos like Wellwood needs to be on the top 2 lines as a scorer and not all 4 lines like a 2 way player like Higgins ..

I don't think Spezza needs to be on the top two lines. It is sometimes said of smaller players that they would need to be on the top two lines because they don't have the size and type of game to make an impact on a checking line. Spezza can play anywhere up and down an NHL lineup. You don't appear to have made the distinction between players who SHOULD play top two lines and players who HAVE to play top two lines in order to be effective or find any sort of role in the NHL.

 

[Mess]

I was simply stating a point. I have no interest in debating over Spezza and Wellwood. I'll debate Corey Locke and Wellwood some other time if you want, but I wouldn't be able to take a debate over Spezza and Wellwood seriously. I mean, it's like me comparing Alexei Kaygorodov to Alexander Frolov or something. They're scoring at a similar pace this year in the Russian Super League...but Frolov has NHL experience.

Somebody else can humour you with this debate, but I'm not going to get sucked into it. Sorry.

This is not a debate about who is better ... Why do people have so much trouble with this .. If you have read any part of the thread I picked a Higgins and Wellwood 2 prospects and compared similarities and differences ..

Now I picked a different comparison .. no different then if I said compare Spezza who was drafted 2nd overall in 2001 to Stanislav Chistov who went 5th and has the same comparison issues SIZE wise to Spezza and similar to Wellwood.

and even you being biased would have to agree at one point Stanislav Chistov and Jason Spezza where compared to each other as prospects and even professionals .. concluding if they where why is it so far fetched keeping in mind the thread is to determine IS WELLWOOD a good prospect or what makes a good prospect if their performance statistics (offensive output) should not be used. If you can't use stats to determine success at a certain level .. What can you use .. Time them around the rink, clock their shoot measure them ..do any of these statistics equate to MORE NHL success ??.

I could compare him to a guy his on size Chistov and the conversation would continue on the same wave length that smaller players are discriminated against and SKATING SKATING SKATING ... yet while Spezza is not a great skater, not 2 way player nor overly physical he is able to succeed at the NHL level quite easily ... despite have those flaws ..

So Chistov verses Spezza is fine ..but Wellwood verses Spezza is silly ..

#1 Alexander Ovechkin 6'3" verses #12 Zach Parise 5'11" verses #17 Jeff Carter 6'3 on a prospect list is fine for ranking and again Wellwood verses a player of his age and draft year is silly .. isn't a top 50 prospect list got the same flaws then my comparison does it ranks prospects of different Sizes, Weights, Ages, Skating, Style, etc and after a comparison is made they are ranked ??.. The purpose being WHO can have the most NHL success and impact ... Is it not possible that a player & NON-Typical prospect can also have a impact at the NHL level and perhaps better, equal to more higher regarded ones ???

The same size issues exist with all the other comparisons as well .. NO???

 

[Mess]

I don't think Spezza needs to be on the top two lines. It is sometimes said of smaller players that they would need to be on the top two lines because they don't have the size and type of game to make an impact on a checking line. Spezza can play anywhere up and down an NHL lineup. You don't appear to have made the distinction between players who SHOULD play top two lines and players who HAVE to play top two lines in order to be effective or find any sort of role in the NHL.

Well its a point .... Spezza is not a defensive player .. are not usually 3rd 4th line players role more towards defense and energy and muckers and grinders and PK specialist than the top 2 lines that focus on offense first and then defense..

Sure your point is valid Spezza could play because he is a NHL player .. but would be he successful if he didn't produce offense playing on those lines or soon would he be replaced by a player that plays that role better ..

 

[Ismellofhockey]

If this isn't a discussion about who's better then I'm lost, what's the point of this 35 page thread?

Spezza is a better prospect than Higgins is a better prospect than Wellwood.
Why?
Because offense counts, but so does defense, size, work ethic, grit, leadership, proven worth...

Let's assume that the argument that Spezza and Wellwood have the same weaknesses and similar stats, failed as that argument might be, let's assume it's right. Spezza still has better size, a good work ethic which has led him to improve his skating and defensive awareness to an NHL level, has more grit than most would give him credit for (2 fighting majors in the NHL a few more in the AHL) and has proven his worth in the NHL.

That's what makes him a better prospect, even if offense is similar, which it isn't since that argument is based on 20-odd games in the AHL this year and disregards the 2 players' past performances.

Now if this isn't the point of the thread, what have I been wasting my time on?

 

[Mess]

Thats not the entire truth. Wellwood and Higgins (remember him ?) tied in points per game average with 0.72.

Higgs - 48/67
Wellwood - 55/76

Yes and what is that point .. I picked the two in the first place because they HAD similar STATS offensively ...

Higgins is a top prospect ..Wellwood is not .. and people told me the only thing that separates them is style of play and skaing ability .. ??

Now I picked a player the same age again .. but with NHL success and again told I can not do that ...

What if I compared to Pierre-Marc Bouchard and their skill sets ???

 

[Mess]

Kyle Wellwood, fifth in league scoring with 26 points including 12 goals centring a line with David Ling and Harold Druken, says the NHL lockout has raised the overall level of AHL play.

''There's a lot more talent in the league this year with guys who normally would be playing in the NHL in our league,'' said the Windsor-region product. ''I'm fortunate to get to play with some of those players, which is helping me put up some good numbers.''

Wellwood got into one NHL game last season and he knows he needs to improve to win a full-time NHL job, whenever they become available again.

''There's an adjustment you have to go through from junior,'' said the second-year pro. ''I still have to adjust my game to establish myself as a player.

''Even if there was NHL this season, I'm not that confident I'd be up. That's why it's important for me to have a good season.''

Toronto GM John Ferguson said most of the big team's top pro prospects, including Wellwood, can't help but benefit from the AHL experience.

''I've met players who didn't spend enough time in the AHL,'' he said. ''I've yet to meet a player who has spent too much time in the AHL.

''This can only help them.''

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/news_story.asp?ID=106390

I guess the only thing that matters is that Toronto's GM is aware and impressed with Wellwood ..

 

[andora]

i love how people laugh at messenger, throw insults around etc.. etc.. when they can't just discuss something. they throw around assumption and claims about the thread and get all tied up inside about something they don't even have to be a part of..

ahh.. gotta love it

 

[Mess]

i love how people laugh at messenger, throw insults around etc.. etc.. when they can't just discuss something. they throw around assumption and claims about the thread and get all tied up inside about something they don't even have to be a part of..

ahh.. gotta love it

Thanks Andora

I was thinking the same thing .. How difficult it is for all these so called self proclaimed experts on the site .. to answer the question or think subjectively on the subject ..

If you ask a question you get your head torn off ...

I asked for a comparison as to what kind of OFFENSIVE STATS ..Wellwood could produce at the NHL level and compared him to Spezza .. because throughout their careers and character traits and skill sets have similarities in the presumed weakness of their games i.e.. Skating, Defensive play and Physical style .. but both highly skilled offensively, and this case SIZE is the difference .. NO ONE questions Spezza is a Star .. but everybody comes here either building up Spezza or previously Higgins when that was not even the question on the table ..

People have no problem comparing for the purpose of a best of list direct 1 player to another and size, skating, age, position, style,offensive ability, etc can all be different.. and for the purpose of an entry draft list or TOP list that is fine but if you do it for any other purpose its silly ..

When you are not doing a TOP list but just determining how a player is progressing as a prospect and compare him to his peers, people just can't do that .. If you're an offensive player and you are producing points which is your goal and ticket to the NHL .. the fact becomes irrelevant for comparison purposes and Height or Skating mean more regardless of what the prospect does with that difference in abilities ..

Martin St. Louis does not need to be compared to smaller players only .. I bet he would want to see how he is doing verses Joe Sakic, Joe Thornton, Ilya Kovalchuk all HOCKEY PLAYERS and his peers ... He didn't just produce more points than little players he produced more points then all players ..and if you are trying to determine who has the most offensive abilities or talents ,some one should not mention Height, Weight, or +/- .. IMO

Zach Parise verses Jeff Carter is fine for comparison purposes of top prospects yet very little similarities exist at all in their games, but ask any one to think outside the box and compare a NON-TYPICAL prospect to a top pick and you get ridiculed ...

Well I suppose the people that saw it coming will get the last laugh when the player succeeds ...because someone stopped for a second looked at the facts for what they are, and conclude... wait a minute we might have a player here ..

 

[andora]

1995


4 Anaheim Chad Kilger C Kingston Frontenacs (OHL) 500 66 79 145 224
101 St. Louis Michal Handzus C Banska Bystrica (Slovakia) 436 100 147 247 269
106 NY Islanders Vladimir Orszagh R Banska Bystrica (Slovakia) 273 50 60 110 180
128 Pittsburgh Jan Hrdina C Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL) 438 91 173 264 263

i would have liked to see us debating back in 97 challenging kilger with comparisons to these three.. har har

 

[Mess]

1995


4 Anaheim Chad Kilger C Kingston Frontenacs (OHL) 500 66 79 145 224
101 St. Louis Michal Handzus C Banska Bystrica (Slovakia) 436 100 147 247 269
106 NY Islanders Vladimir Orszagh R Banska Bystrica (Slovakia) 273 50 60 110 180
128 Pittsburgh Jan Hrdina C Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL) 438 91 173 264 263

i would have liked to see us debating back in 97 challenging kilger with comparisons to these three.. har har

Are you Nuts

You can't compare NHL success potential of late round picks to TOP picks who are PROTOTYPICAL early draft picks that can skate, shoot, have size .. what are you thinking??

Who cares now if years have passed and things have changed from draft day with all players ... and I have learned you certainly can not use their actual NHL points to determine their success because that is totally unreasonable to even suggest.

Kilger is bigger and skates faster than the others so he wins ....well you get my point ... others don't ....

 

[andora]

i have an interesting little comparison ... chad kilger and p.j. axelsson...

177 Boston P.J. Axelsson
1993-94 Vastra Frolunda HC Goteborg SEL 11 0 0 0 4
1994-95 Vastra Frolunda HC Goteborg SEL 8 2 1 3 6
1995-96 Vastra Frolunda HC Goteborg SEL 36 15 5 20 10
1996-97 Vastra Frolunda HC Goteborg SEL 50 19 15 34 34

4 Anaheim Chad Kilger
1993-94 Kingston Frontenacs OHL 66 17 35 52 23
1994-95 Kingston Frontenacs OHL 65 42 53 95 95
1995-96 Anaheim Mighty Ducks NHL 45 5 7 12 22
1995-96 Winnipeg Jets NHL 29 2 3 5 12
1996-97 Springfield Falcons AHL 52 17 28 45 36
1996-97 Phoenix Coyotes NHL 24 4 3 7 13

now imagine if you had applied the higgins/kilger kind of comparison, using axelsson scoring in the SEL as a comparison to kilger's scoring rate in the nhl/ahl, and tried to compare them offensively (with the size difference in there) as we all know a player will lead leagues such as the sel, finnish top league, or RSL etc.. with fewer points on average/comparison/ratio than a north american player will lead leagues such as the nhl/ahl/juniors ...

then, coming out years later and seeing their nhl totals:
kilger - 500 66 79 145 224
axelsson - 533 63 110 173 189


WOW

 

[andora]

in that 96/97 year, axelsson with his 34 points was behind these top three scorers...

--- Regular Season --- ---- Playoffs ----
# Player Name GP G A Pts PIM GP G A Pts PIM
-------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------
Juha Riihijarvi............................... 49 27 24 51 28 4 1 0 1 8
Espen Knutsen................................. 39 16 33 49 20 4 2 4 6 6
Evgeny Davydov................................ 46 30 18 48 103 -- -- -- -- --


not too mention that his 34 points was tied for the team lead.. he was only 17 off of the leader... wow would people have laughed

 

[DaveyCrockett]

Of couse you are stating the BLATENTLY OBVIOUS that everyone knows .. I didn't say that Wellwood is the player Spezza is ..just pondering if in comparison he can offensively produce at a simialr level ..

The only thing pointless in fact is your contribution to it .... because you do not understand the dicussion .. I started out picking 2 prospect Higgins Top 50 and Wellwood and compared them ... and the conclusion was that Higgins around 2-way game combined with his speed separated them. .Giving the advantage to Higgins ... not I am comparing him to another young player his age ..and am wondering if the outcome is any different ..Spezza alos like Wellwood needs to be on the top 2 lines as a scorer and not all 4 lines like a 2 way player like Higgins ..

I still have no idea what the point of this thread is. Are you trying to use junior statistics for player projection? Can you please explain the clear purpose of this thread. More than size seperates Spezza and Wellwood.

 

[Mess]

i have an interesting little comparison ... chad kilger and p.j. axelsson...

177 Boston P.J. Axelsson
1993-94 Vastra Frolunda HC Goteborg SEL 11 0 0 0 4
1994-95 Vastra Frolunda HC Goteborg SEL 8 2 1 3 6
1995-96 Vastra Frolunda HC Goteborg SEL 36 15 5 20 10
1996-97 Vastra Frolunda HC Goteborg SEL 50 19 15 34 34

4 Anaheim Chad Kilger
1993-94 Kingston Frontenacs OHL 66 17 35 52 23
1994-95 Kingston Frontenacs OHL 65 42 53 95 95
1995-96 Anaheim Mighty Ducks NHL 45 5 7 12 22
1995-96 Winnipeg Jets NHL 29 2 3 5 12
1996-97 Springfield Falcons AHL 52 17 28 45 36
1996-97 Phoenix Coyotes NHL 24 4 3 7 13

now imagine if you had applied the higgins/kilger kind of comparison, using axelsson scoring in the SEL as a comparison to kilger's scoring rate in the nhl/ahl, and tried to compare them offensively (with the size difference in there) as we all know a player will lead leagues such as the sel, finnish top league, or RSL etc.. with fewer points on average/comparison/ratio than a north american player will lead leagues such as the nhl/ahl/juniors ...

then, coming out years later and seeing their nhl totals:
kilger - 500 66 79 145 224
axelsson - 533 63 110 173 189


WOW

Like your point these comparisons happen all the time with player differences, yet the Higgins verses Wellwood possibility with POINTS in the SAME LEAGUE is a poor question..

Now I changed the situation Spezza at 18 and Wellwood at 18 in the same OHL produced similar POINTS ... Spezza at 21 verses Wellwood at 21 are producing POINTS at the AHL level at similar rates .. what happened in between is different granted by WHY can't you compare these players based on the AHL scoring race and determine anything, because they are of different sizes??

The players are mutually exclusive .. Nothing that Spezza does makes Wellwood a better prospect and Vice Versa ... but if you compare the one thing we have that is measurable and always an accepted fact which is POINTS IN A LEAGUE, which are a gauge of individual success..

Can we determine anything by making that comparison ?? It seems that 25 points by Higgins or Spezza counts more than 25 points by Wellwood or any other NON-TYPICAL IDEAL prospect ..

They can never shake the discrimination be it SIZE, or SKATING, or STYLE, or Draft position ..until they physically have made the NHL and are successful ..and then all the doubters say that is an exception to the rule .. but people have a hard time accepting that it could be a exception in the making based on, on-ice performance as prospects.

Point being How do you find that Diamond in the Rough??

If a star prospect is producing and succeeds great that is what was expected ... but how do you uncover those hidden gems .. and one place I would start would be at the top of a scoring race in a league and work my way down comparing them to their peers ..

 

[Mess]

I still have no idea what the point of this thread is. Are you trying to use junior statistics for player projection? Can you please explain the clear purpose of this thread. More than size seperates Spezza and Wellwood.

The whole moral of the story from the start was to determine WHAT KIND OF PROSPECT ..Wellwood is .. ???

At draft day he was considered a long-shot or average prospect because on that day in the scouts eyes .. he ended up being a mid round pick ...

However 3 years later ...Draft position should be thrown out, as many things changed .. So to determine what kind of progress Wellwood in making I compared him to players his own age... I picked Higgins because in the eyes of HF he is the last forward on the TOP 50 list and thus considered a TOP PROSPECT and that is undisputed and the yard stick to measure him against .. but their are also lots of similarities the same ...AGE, Height,Weight, Years of experience, AHL Points, etc. and only the intangible (non measureable) as in style or play or defensive awareness are different .. and I was wondering if those things are enough to make 1 player a top prospect and the other not...

The points they get can get used against each other for comparrison , but not suggesting those project or have any direct relationship to points in a different league ..

What makes a good prospect was the question on the table and how do you measure that???

Wellwood is doing everything that is expected of him offensively, but his success does not raise his status as a prospect in the eyes of posters here ..

The conclusion was Higgins skates faster and back checks better, but those skills do not produce any more points in the AHL .. So why should they in the NHL ??

They may increases his chances of sticking or being a safer pick because of those skills but not mean he will produce more at the NHL level if both are given an opportunity ..

In a nutshell ..

 

[Bileur]

Who cares now if years have passed and things have changed from draft day with all players ... and I have learned you certainly can not use their actual NHL points to determine their success because that is totally unreasonable to even suggest.

Arent you the one comparing a guy who scored 55 points in the NHL last year to a guy who scored as many in the AHL?

 

[Fish on The Sand]

Habs TOP prospect on TOP 50 list member Andrei Kostitsyn compares nothing like Higgins either yet considered even a better prospect without the 2-way Defensive tag and physical play?? WHY ?? ..because of the 1-2 inches in Height, and he also has Epilepsy hurdle to overcome ..

Because he cans core at will......

 

[habfan4]

.... Toronto GM John Ferguson said most of the big team's top pro prospects, including Wellwood, can't help but benefit from the AHL experience.....

I guess the only thing that matters is that Toronto's GM is aware and impressed with Wellwood ..

I think Ferguson is cautiously optimistic about Wellwood’s future. I do find it ironic that Ferguson basically said the same thing a lot of posters in this thread said (see below).

"You can find enough guys who led the American Hockey League in scoring and didn't make the NHL," Maple Leafs GM John Ferguson said yesterday. "And (Wellwood) has to make sure he's not one of those guys."

Toronto Star Link to Wellwood Article

 

[sunb]

I think Ferguson is cautiously optimistic about Wellwood’s future. I do find it ironic that Ferguson basically said the same thing a lot of posters in this thread said (see below).

"You can find enough guys who led the American Hockey League in scoring and didn't make the NHL," Maple Leafs GM John Ferguson said yesterday. "And (Wellwood) has to make sure he's not one of those guys."

Toronto Star Link to Wellwood Article

Haha nice find habsfan4. All I can say for the poster making crap up in this thread - BUSTED!

 

[mooseOAK*]

I think Ferguson is cautiously optimistic about Wellwood’s future. I do find it ironic that Ferguson basically said the same thing a lot of posters in this thread said (see below).

"You can find enough guys who led the American Hockey League in scoring and didn't make the NHL," Maple Leafs GM John Ferguson said yesterday. "And (Wellwood) has to make sure he's not one of those guys."

Toronto Star Link to Wellwood Article

That's his GM saying what he has to do and here is his coach saying that he is doing it:


"He has so much skill and you can't intimidate him," said coach Doug Shedden. "Nothing bothers him. You can call him any names you want and he just comes and plays and lets his skill level show what he can do. He's very confident in his abilities and he has been a lot better overall this year."

 

[Mess]

I think Ferguson is cautiously optimistic about Wellwood’s future. I do find it ironic that Ferguson basically said the same thing a lot of posters in this thread said (see below).

"You can find enough guys who led the American Hockey League in scoring and didn't make the NHL," Maple Leafs GM John Ferguson said yesterday. "And (Wellwood) has to make sure he's not one of those guys."

Toronto Star Link to Wellwood Article

WHAT DO YOU THINK THE whole thread is about ???

Trying to determine if Wellwood is progressing as a prospect and not being over looked for an NHL opportunity ..Points alone are not going to do it, but they certainly help more then they hurt and thus ...

the comparison to Higgins, who is a Top 50 prospect ...

Any GM could/should say that about any prospect ... implying that he still needs to work on things away from the puck, and their weaknesses ... Didn't Jacques Martin say the same thing about Spezza and sent him to the AHL first to work on his weaknesses???

In Higgins case if his season continued at the same points pace at it currently is ..then no doubt he has raised concerns in Montreal's eyes as well .. Last year on a Strong Hamilton team he produced well, this year the team changes and suddenly his offensive numbers drop significantly .. Wellwood's trend is the opposite .. St. Johns has been a poor AHL team for years missing the playoffs, with a depleted prospect pool due to trades of prospects and picks ...

Yet Wellwood lead all rookies in scoring despite the poor team and now that the team is stronger partially due to his contribution offensively..The addition of more rookie Leaf prospects (that get no respect in the eyes of people/posters at HF), has made ST. Johns even younger but BETTER ,and the same YOUNG excuse that Hab fans are using as to why its prospects are struggling... Wellwood is on pace to shatter his rookie totals at mid season, and his team is benefiting from his strong play..

Considering he has made an effort to be more well rounded and his - 14 to + 10 +/- turnaround is an indication, considering his linemate Druken remains a -2 negative player ..

What else can he do? ... he is an offensive player .. he is producing offensively ... he needs to work and getting better defensively and as he grows and matures and body fills out as gets stronger his odds of NHL employment increase and that is all anyone ever set out to prove in the first place that Wellwood as a prospect is improving and that is all you can ask ...

 

[habfan4]

That's his GM saying what he has to do and here is his coach saying that he is doing it:


"He has so much skill and you can't intimidate him," said coach Doug Shedden. "Nothing bothers him. You can call him any names you want and he just comes and plays and lets his skill level show what he can do. He's very confident in his abilities and he has been a lot better overall this year."

You are free to interpret the quote anyway you like, IMO it speaks for itself.

Ferguson wants to groom the kid for the NHL: His is basically telling Wellwood - Your AHL numbers are great and a reason for optimism, but keep working or you could end up as just another footnote in the long list of AHL wunderkinds who fail at the NHL level. To paraphrase - We like what we see, as evidenced by the coaches comments, but don't think your current success means you've made it. (a sentiment many posters have echoed in this thread)

 

[Sammy*]

What else can he do? ... he is an offensive player .. he is producing offensively ... he needs to work and getting better defensively and as he grows and matures and body fills out as gets stronger his odds of NHL employment increase and that is all anyone ever set out to prove in the first place that Wellwood as a prospect is improving and that is all you can ask ...

Sometimes (many times), nothing more. Sometimes the guy is really good in the AHL but for many reasons, it just doesnt translate (ask John Slaney).