Celebrini vs J. Hughes

[AhosDatsyukian]

Better career depends on where Celebrini goes. I think peak will be a push.

 

[dgibb10]

Not saying he isn't better than Bratt or Hischier. It's just the context of rate statistics. They tend to be situation-specific, someone like Barkov or Marner would be penalized just looking at all-situations since they are often used in PK situations. Which is why they generally get used as 5v5 or ES to actually extract value from them, rather than all-situations.

Yeah it would 100% discount people with significant PK time.

But again, it was simply a quick show of "hey Jack Hughes is pretty f***ing good at this hockey thing, look at the company he's in in terms of point production" rather than an in depth comparison of players.

When I am comparing individual players more in depth, I go into 3 categories.

How much value is this player providing on the power play:

How much value is this player providing at even strength:

How much value is this player providing on the penalty kill:

 

[Goptor]

Its hard to really compare careers because the Devils will draft Celebrini, so both players will have identical team achievements.

 

[dgibb10]

Not saying he isn't better than Bratt or Hischier. It's just the context of rate statistics. They tend to be situation-specific, someone like Barkov or Marner would be penalized just looking at all-situations since they are often used in PK situations. Which is why they generally get used as 5v5 or ES to actually extract value from them, rather than all-situations.

I can happily reword to:

Here's a list of players who scored at a higher PP rate than Hughes from age 20-22 since 2007

Connor McDavid, David Pastrnak

Here's a list of players who scored at a higher even strength rate than Hughes from age 20-22 since 2007

Crosby, Mcdavid, Robertson**, Matthews, Hall, Ovi*, Malkin*

Here's a list of players who scored goals at a higher rate than Jack Hughes did even strength from age 20-22 since 2007:

Matthews, Ovi*, Robertson**, Stamkos, Crosby, McDavid.


* Data for even strength TOI for their age 20 seasons unavailable
** did not play NHL hockey at age 20

DISCLAIMER: In case anyone didn't know, Jack Hughes did not dominate age age 19 or 18 (huge if true)

 

[CanadienShark]

Yeah for sure.

For me, Hughes is certainly not in the Crosby / McDavid class. But I do have him in the tier below, with guys like Matthews, Mackinnon, and Eichel. When he's healthy, I think he's shown that he has the talent to compete for the top spot of that group.

For centers drafted from 2012 up through 2024, here's how I'd group them up (a lot of emphasis on play driving, defensive game, and ability to matchup in a playoff series):

Generational
McDavid

Elite Franchise centers
Mackinnon
Eichel
Matthews
Barkov
Hughes
Bedard**
Draisaitl

Franchise centers
Carlsson**
Aho
Pettersson
Point
Stutzle
Thompson
Hischier

Legit 1st line centers
Barzal
Larkin
Fantilli**
Celebrini**
Hintz
Cooley**
Thomas
Beniers**
Lambert**

**My personal projections. Could slide up or down a tier depending on development, or even fall off list completely if they never become full time centers.

I'm not sure how anyone could have Hughes over Draisaitl. Or Eichel over Draisaitl.

 

[PatriceBergeronFan]

Here is a complete list of players to score at a higher rate (points/60) than Jack Hughes from ages 20-22 since 2006

Sidney Crosby (3.74)
Connor McDavid (3.89)

Jack Hughes is at 3.6, Ovi and Malkin trail right behind

Then a gap to 3.41 where you get to Pasta and Matthews

Offense is also rather heightened this era.

 

[dgibb10]

Offense is also rather heightened this era.

100%.

Here is every age 20 season since 2020

Here is every age 21 season:

Here is every age 22 season:

 

[Evergreen]

Obviously it’s impossible to know the answer at this point. I voted Hughes in both counts simply because I think whichever team drafts Celebrini would be thrilled if he became a Hughes-caliber player. As others have pointed out, this seems like a classic boat vs. mystery box scenario.

 

[bert]

Here is a complete list of players to score at a higher rate (points/60) than Jack Hughes from ages 20-22 since 2006

Sidney Crosby (3.74)
Connor McDavid (3.89)

Jack Hughes is at 3.6, Ovi and Malkin trail right behind

Then a gap to 3.41 where you get to Pasta and Matthews

You actually have to play the games. Then be healthy enough to play in the playoffs and be effective. He's an elite talent but you'd be silly not to be worried about his durability with his size and injury history.

 

[bert]

Obviously it’s impossible to know the answer at this point. I voted Hughes in both counts simply because I think whichever team drafts Celebrini would be thrilled if he became a Hughes-caliber player. As others have pointed out, this seems like a classic boat vs. mystery box scenario.

Boats often broken and doesnt play hard defense and doesnt lean on the other team. Not such a cut and dry comparison. Celebrini will be a much better defensive player he wont have the elite ppg production but might actually physically score more points.

 

[dgibb10]

You actually have to play the games. Then be healthy enough to play in the playoffs and be effective. He's an elite talent but you'd be silly not to be worried about his durability with his size and injury history.

List of players drafted since 2010 to score more total points in age 20-22 seasons than Jack Hughes

Connor McDavid: 321
Leon Draisaitl: 252
David Pastrnak: 231
Mitch Marner: 230
Jack Hughes: 229

 

[bert]

List of players drafted since 2010 to score more total points in age 20-22 seasons than Jack Hughes

Connor McDavid: 321
Leon Draisaitl: 252
David Pastrnak: 231
Mitch Marner: 230
Jack Hughes: 229

He still hasnt been able to stay healthy so my point remains. Points also arent everything. I think Marner is a good comparable for him though.

 

[Evergreen]

Boats often broken and doesnt play hard defense and doesnt lean on the other team. Not such a cut and dry comparison. Celebrini will be a much better defensive player he wont have the elite ppg production but might actually physically score more points.

That may be Celebrini’s projection, but the truth is that we don’t know exactly what he will become. These kinds of projections are often inaccurate. Hence the mystery box comparison.

 

[dgibb10]

He still hasnt been able to stay healthy so my point remains. Points also arent everything. I think Marner is a good comparable for him though.

Yeah and despite missing all this time and playing through injuries, he STILL has this massive production.

Jack Hughes is the best forward who's been drafted since 2016 and the 2nd best player (3rd if you want to take Bedard). And you're taking a mystery box.

That may be Celebrini’s projection, but the truth is that we don’t know exactly what he will become. These kinds of projections are often inaccurate. Hence the mystery box comparison.

Yeah the assumption that Celebrini is some guarantee to be an elite level defender is certainly interesting.

 

[Dr Salt]

There's probably a debate to be had as prospects but with what Jack Hughes is now there's zero reason to bet against him until Celibrini actually hits those heights