GDT: carphi 7:30pm

[bleedgreen]

2 things: First, earnings isn't just an aside, it's everything. Contract efficency is how you maximize skill on a team. Dougie is getting paid an asinine amount of money for the value he offers to a team. Slavin is flat out underpaid. Part of that is absolutely that the league overvalues offensive defenseman. Maybe part of that is some advanced stat saying offense is more valuable than pure defense, but mostly I think it's just 'ooh, shiny'.

Which leads me to point two: We don't use public models much, if at all, and Tulsky has completely dismissed shot attempt based stats and has said we have not used them at all for years. And stats tend to bias towards what they can measure, and measuring offense has a lot more data points than measuring defense, so a lot of those "offense is more valuable than defense" conclusions are likely significantly influenced by measurement biases. Tulsky may not buy that for one second. Or he may, but may have found that focusing on defensive skill gets so much more bang for your buck due to the league misvaluing those skills that it's worth the tradeoff.

But it should shock no one that we'll take an elite defensive D over the one dimensional offensive guy who you have to pay twice as much money every day and twice on Sunday.

And remember, we were prepared to pay Hamilton a generous amount of money, and more than Slavin. Other teams in the league were just willing to go to absurdities because they saw what Edmonton did with Nurse and decided that that was the recipe for success.

We offered him six million by most accounts. Which was barely a raise after being a high scorer. We did not offer him a generous amount of money. Any team in the league would’ve paid him six.

Slavin is pretty poor comparable. He was signed early on a gamble he’d keep developing, and it was one of the first contracts like that. He’s not underpaid on that contract, he was overpaid when it started. It wasn’t the undervaluing of defensive dmen vs the overvaluing of offensive guys at the time. We offered him a medium sized bag in hopes of avoiding paying him much more later and it worked great.

I don’t know that I’m any more comfortable giving Slavin a max deal then I am with Pesce/Skjei.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Could easily be his only chance. Comes down to how he’s viewed in the league. Someone paying him to be top four without ever seeing him do it would be an interesting risk to take.

I think the best play is to keep doing what we did to get him. Keep evaluating pro talent to identify an underutilized player that could surprise and take an everyday job away from someone for cheap. Straight out of JR’s playbook ironically. Francis as well for that matter. We’ve always had guys others slept on but turned into solid players for us on defense.

Signing that guy to big money to take the next step into top four can easily be a step too far.

It entirely depends on what the organization thinks about his recent play. It's very possible that the correct move could be to make the bet that Chatfield can be a top-4 piece, BUT I am also in the camp that thinks that they shouldn't hand it on a silver platter and that any smart team who chooses to place that bet will also give him competition.

I don’t know that I’m any more comfortable giving Slavin a max deal then I am with Pesce/Skjei.

I get and understand the reservations, but I'm pretty sure that the front office sees Slavin as the easiest choice to extend over the others. If Nikishin pans out and successfully becomes a 1D, Slavin can be easily slotted as a premium 2LD as he ages, sort of like how Tampa is likely to manage Sergachev and Hedman.

 

[bleedgreen]

It entirely depends on what the organization thinks about his recent play. It's very possible that the correct move could be to make the bet that Chatfield can be a top-4 piece, BUT I am also in the camp that thinks that they shouldn't hand it on a silver platter and that any smart team who chooses to place that bet will also give him competition.



I get and understand the reservations, but I'm pretty sure that the front office sees Slavin as the easiest choice to extend over the others. If Nikishin pans out and successfully becomes a 1D, Slavin can be easily slotted as a premium 2LD as he ages, sort of like how Tampa is likely to manage Sergachev and Hedman.

I think Slavin has prematurely aged just as much as Pesce has, he just is a better skater.

Too much is hoped for or assumed about Nikishin but I’m over that conversation. I think the main reason we keep Chat would be he’s more affordable than the others and we like that.

And as they say you can always buy more D.

 

[AD Skinner]

Slavin also is the clear leader of the defense and has an outside chance of being captain eventually. I think they view him as a cane for life along with aho and svechnikov, with everyone else being replaceable

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Could easily be his only chance. Comes down to how he’s viewed in the league. Someone paying him to be top four without ever seeing him do it would be an interesting risk to take.

GMs continue to pay Gudbranson to be a top 4 defenseman even though they've never seen him do it.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I think Slavin has prematurely aged just as much as Pesce has, he just is a better skater.

I'm not sure I agree with that completely.

Slavin is a better skater, a better passer, is better with his stick, and has better natural instincts than Pesce. Secondly, (knock on wood), he hasn't had the injury history.

It's not Slavin's physical ability that makes him so good, it's because he rarely makes the wrong play and anticipates a play so well.

I think we put too much stock into early season games when we talk about premature aging. These guys, particularly the veterans, have been to the playoffs enough times to know that it's the playoffs that count. Mentally and physically, giving 100% for every regular season game isn't as easy as it was a few seasons ago and it makes sense.

 

[chaz4hockey]

I think Slavin has prematurely aged just as much as Pesce has, he just is a better skater.

Too much is hoped for or assumed about Nikishin but I’m over that conversation. I think the main reason we keep Chat would be he’s more affordable than the others and we like that.

And as they say you can always buy more D.

Isn't our draft pipeline pretty strong beyond Morrow-Nikisin?

I am less worried about the future given the development/promise in Europe of draftees.

 

[A Star is Burns]

I'm not sure I agree with that completely.

Slavin is a better skater, a better passer, is better with his stick, and has better natural instincts than Pesce. Secondly, (knock on wood), he hasn't had the injury history.

It's not Slavin's physical ability that makes him so good, it's because he rarely makes the wrong play and anticipates a play so well.

I think we put too much stock into early season games when we talk about premature aging. These guys, particularly the veterans, have been to the playoffs enough times to know that it's the playoffs that count. Mentally and physically, giving 100% for every regular season game isn't as easy as it was a few seasons ago and it makes sense.

Yeah, I think it was one thing when the team was trying to establish it's presence in the league. They outworked teams even in the preseason and tried to bank a ton of points early while others weren't ready for them yet. Brindy even seems to take preseason significantly less serious now. Before he may not have liked it but saw the value of establishing the team's identity and level of play. Now he just doesn't seem to care for any of it.

Now that they've entered a different phase of their competitive life cycle, their starts aren't amazing these last two years as much. They seem to be ramping things up much more appropriately for a team that wants to last til June. And for the most part, they've shown they've got the talent to win even while they're feeling things out.

I'm not crazy worried about anyone's play, age, or anything else until the the team or certain players look like rough in March or we fall seriously out of a playoff spot.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Isn't our draft pipeline pretty strong beyond Morrow-Nikisin?

I am less worried about the future given the development/promise in Europe of draftees.

We have a couple of 7th rounders who look like they could play games in Seeley and Nystrom. We also have a couple of others that are decently regarded in Forsmark and Heimosalmi. Im not sure that is strong but it is they could play games.

 

[chaz4hockey]

We have a couple of 7th rounders who look like they could play games in Seeley and Nystrom. We also have a couple of others that are decently regarded in Forsmark and Heimosalmi. Im not sure that is strong but it is they could play games.

latter 2 are playing well and still very young (particularly for defense)....I'm bullish on those 2, the M-N combo. + Slavin as the old guy & perhaps Chat as we move years down the road.

Naturally, time will tell.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Other than can't miss guys like Makar, I find it tough to ever truly know who will or won't be a good top 4 NHL defenseman, more so than forwards.

If you go back and read some of our old prospect rankings, Pesce and Slavin weren't that high, in fact, I think many had Carrick over them. Guys like Fleury and Bean looked good in juniors and even the AHL and were high in our prospect rankings, but never really translated it into a top 4 guy consistently in the NHL. Forsling was ditched by Chicago and never got a chance in Carolina and has become very good in Florida.

The ability to see the whole ice and process things quickly is such a key part of being an NHL defenseman today, given the speed and power of skaters these days. That's not always an easy thing to measure and thus why predicting who will succeed is often difficult.

 

[chaz4hockey]

Other than can't miss guys like Makar, I find it tough to ever truly know who will or won't be a good top 4 NHL defenseman, more so than forwards.

If you go back and read some of our old prospect rankings, Pesce and Slavin weren't that high, in fact, I think many had Carrick over them. Guys like Fleury and Bean looked good in juniors and even the AHL and were high in our prospect rankings, but never really translated it into a top 4 guy consistently in the NHL. Forsling was ditched by Chicago and never got a chance in Carolina and has become very good in Florida.

The ability to see the whole ice and process things quickly is such a key part of being an NHL defenseman today, given the speed and power of skaters these days. That's not always an easy thing to measure and thus why predicting who will succeed is often difficult.

yup, outside of the can't-miss types, can be voodoo like Goalies....Forsling was a big analytical miss for us though and helped the Cats solidify their D (which of course hurt us LY)

 

[AD Skinner]

I mean Noah hanifin was supposed to be a can’t miss defender and it’s not like he washed out of the league but it’s not like he became a big star either. Defense is hard

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I mean Noah hanifin was supposed to be a can’t miss defender and it’s not like he washed out of the league but it’s not like he became a big star either. Defense is hard

I think Hanifin has become pretty much what scouts thought he would become. He's a solid, but not spectacular top pairing defenseman.

It looks like the profile on Canes website is now gone, but I remember MacDonald saying something to the effect of he's a solid defender, can skate well, good character but won't provide a tone of offense.

That's basically what he's become in Calgary.