Post-Game Talk: Cardiac Cats take the Stars to ram ranch 4-3 win

[Gentle Man]

The expected goals metric is a good analytic tool, but when you're giving up 2 on 0 breakaways and generally leaving guys alone in front of your goalie constantly, it doesn't really tell the whole story. Hence, there were only 1.5 expected goals for the Stars in the first period, despite everyone with eyes understanding that they could have easily potted four, even if the goalie was playing decently.

Right. Which is exactly why to me that doesn't track.

How is it so low? How does having 17 high danger chances equal 3 expected goals?

 

[teugen]

I read the whole thread from the page one for the first time. Amazing rollercoaster of mixed emotions.

 

[Chaos2k7]

I read the whole thread from the page one for the first time. Amazing rollercoaster of mixed emotions.

Lol, it's always a treat

 

[teugen]

Lol, it's always a treat

We have a great group of posters down here. I'm always entertained, lol.

 

[FinlandPanther]

We have a great group of posters down here. I'm always entertained, lol.

You’re welcome.

 

[WaitingForThatCab]

It might be one of those janky games where we get dominated all night and undeservedly win. Or we just get dominated and lose.

Shoulda listened to this guy, tbh.

 

[Chessarmy]

Bobrovsky played OUT OF HIS MIND. Without him we lose in a blowout. Holy shit!

 

[Idiot Stick]

Shoulda listened to this guy, tbh.

 

[ucanthanzalthetruth]

We are spoiled man

Last year was about as great of a run as you can have without winning due to the teams they beat but IMO we're still not even with the shit this franchise has put us through until they win a Cup.

 

[Gentle Man]

You’re welcome.

He don't know you lil bro

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Holy shit. Favoriteddddd

 

[Desert Panther]

Did you check to see if they caught you on camera celebrating on the replays?

Saw a decent amount of red jerseys in the arena per the TV broadcast

Doubt it. I was up in one of the suites (my wife got tix from her work) and in my Tkachuk reverse retro. Definitely saw the bald guy down by the benches a LOT though. He had a loud LGP chant with the group he was in going before the Stars fans drowned him out with sheer numbers.

 

[WaitingForThatCab]

Bobrovsky played OUT OF HIS MIND. Without him we lose in a blowout. Holy shit!

Many people said I was crazy when I suggested that if Bobrovsky continues to play like this, there's a real chance he finishes his contract wearing a Panthers jersey.

I still don't think I'm crazy.

 

[pantherbot]

Many people said I was crazy when I suggested that if Bobrovsky continues to play like this, there's a real chance he finishes his contract wearing a Panthers jersey.

I still don't think I'm crazy.

You're not crazy anymore now that Forsling signed that sweet sweet deal.

 

[TotalHomer]

Right. Which is exactly why to me that doesn't track.

How is it so low? How does having 17 high danger chances equal 3 expected goals?

I don't know how they exactly calculate it but xGF takes into account things like quality of the shooter and goaltender quality etc. So while there is positive correlation between xGF and HDSC it's not 1 to 1.

 

[Gentle Man]

oh they fell apart completely

I don't know how they exactly calculate it but xGF takes into account things like quality of the shooter and goaltender quality etc. So while there is positive correlation between xGF and HDSC it's not 1 to 1.

Ive actually discussed this with the moneypuck account before. I noticed they had the the same, low value XGF when Ovechkin takes his signature one timer on the PP regardless of who shoots it from that spot. *shrug*

Eye test last night says Dallas deserved the win

 

[Howboutthempanthers]

Felt like a win from 2 years ago. But I'll take it. We definitely need to get back to playing with good structure. And need to stop with the terrible pinching by the defensemen. It's like they traded for those players at the deadline and started thinking all offense. They just want to run and gun.

 

[WaitingForThatCab]

Felt like a win from 2 years ago. But I'll take it. We definitely need to get back to playing with good structure. And need to stop with the terrible pinching by the defensemen. It's like they traded for those players at the deadline and started thinking all offense. They just want to run and gun.

I think it's necessary for this team to be able to run and gun, for instance if they're down by two goals in a playoff game or something. So it's good to show that they can play that way in a pinch.

But yeah, shouldn't try to emulate that performance going forward.

 

[Howboutthempanthers]

I think it's necessary for this team to be able to run and gun, for instance if they're down by two goals in a playoff game or something. So it's good to show that they can play that way in a pinch.

But yeah, shouldn't try to emulate that performance going forward.

Oh yeah, they have the talent for it. Gives them some confidence that they can still go into that mode when needed. But yeah, don't want to go there too often.

 

[TotalHomer]

Ive actually discussed this with the moneypuck account before. I noticed they had the the same, low value XGF when Ovechkin takes his signature one timer on the PP regardless of who shoots it from that spot. *shrug*

Eye test last night says Dallas deserved the win

They probably have a ton of variables factored in, like Ovechkin shooting today isn't the same xGF increase as Ovechkin shooting five years ago. Or how the defense is positioned in any given situation, the variables that can be included seem limitless. Did the guy eat pizza yesterday? He scored last time he had pizza for dinner!

I don't know how you can accurately quantify any of these but that's another thing. And the results seem quite random at times, like yesterday. Felt like Dallas wins that game 9/10 times.

 

[Gentle Man]

They probably have a ton of variables factored in, like Ovechkin shooting today isn't the same xGF increase as Ovechkin shooting five years ago. Or how the defense is positioned in any given situation, the variables that can be included seem limitless. Did the guy eat pizza yesterday? He scored last time he had pizza for dinner!

I don't know how you can accurately quantify any of these but that's another thing. And the results seem quite random at times, like yesterday. Felt like Dallas wins that game 9/10 times.

It was 2021-22 when he scored 50 lol

 

[RogerRoger]

They probably have a ton of variables factored in, like Ovechkin shooting today isn't the same xGF increase as Ovechkin shooting five years ago. Or how the defense is positioned in any given situation, the variables that can be included seem limitless. Did the guy eat pizza yesterday? He scored last time he had pizza for dinner!

I don't know how you can accurately quantify any of these but that's another thing. And the results seem quite random at times, like yesterday. Felt like Dallas wins that game 9/10 times.

For paid stuff yeah, but for moneypuck it seems to be just brute data.

 

[floridada]

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new batt profile pic just dropped

 

[TotalHomer]

It was 2021-22 when he scored 50 lol

Does someone actually track how often he pots goals from that spot vs. the attempts he takes? Because he might actually be more effective at some other areas of the ice where he doesn't shoot a million times a year .

 

[Gentle Man]

new batt profile pic just dropped

It's gonna be like

69-0 since I changed my profile pic to Paul Maurice delivering Ekblad's pre-game Uber Eats or some shii

 

[Idiot Stick]

It's gonna be like

69-0 since I changed my profile pic to Paul Maurice delivering Ekblad's pre-game Uber Eats or some shii

You either die a hero, or live long enough to turn yourself into a Goldie jinx