Confirmed Signing with Link: [CAR/MTL] Canadiens do not match Kotkaniemi offer sheet (1 year, $6.1M), receive 2022 1st, 2022 3rd

[Chips]

Ya it’s not uncommon for teams to miss on their draft picks but for Carolina to pay a sub par player 6 mil is terrible money management during a flat cap.

It really isn’t, it’s how offersheets work they don’t intend to pay him $6mil after this year, they added multiple one year deals as this is a sort of cap transition year as they know some guys will need contracts soon, they have the D depth to let Hamilton walk and they have a year before they need to give those raises.

if KK at least regains his defense numbers and puts up 3rd line numbers, they’ll try to add him to the appropriate money and term, and they’ll more or less have achieved what they were aiming for, that or a decent two way second liner.

the age difference from KK to Dvorak is pretty significant in development years. KKs development didn’t work out in Montreal, the Canes are willing to take a risk because they’ve got the prospect depth to do it. A change of scenery, system etc can make a difference

hell Andre Burakovsky was closer to Dvorak’s age than KKs when he was traded off the Caps and went from a regular 30 pt player to a legit top 6 threat on a great team

 

[Chips]

$6M and two draft picks?

Pressure is high on him to take the next step or he's gonna quickly become the Canes' fans whipping boy.

Canes fans are some of the least insane in the league, quick strong reactions don’t come from them often, the intensity of their takes on this whole saga is been the polar opposite of um, what some fan bases would be lol

 

[Telos]

I don't find it too surprising that the Habs didn't match, but I am a little surprised that they turned around and paid more than they got for KK for Dvorak. He may be a better player now, but in the long run, I think I'd rather have KK. Either way, Montreal put themselves in the situation where they were the perfect team to offer sheet. Kudos to the Canes for getting a kid they believe in with upside for a relatively cheap price excluding the contract. I'm sure they have a pretty good idea of where his financial ranges are on his next one already... In the end, I don't love it or hate it for either team, but I feel the Canes are in the better position when the dust settles and KK will flourish there.

 

[ijuka]

Yeah, and during the year it was flat.

I don't think that that was the point...

 

[ninetyeight]

This is what I just don't get. Sure the OS was funny as hell but huh? In the grand scope of things, seems at best loose. Maybe I'm missing something.

Maybe you're missing how offer sheets work. You're trying to steal a player with a contract they can't accept but which you are willing to. It will suck, but then you'll have the rights to the player and can negotiate a new deal after.

People get too caught up on the rfa qualify offer, you don't have to qualify a player if you can just sign him to a deal.

Jesperi has had a rough time in montreal ever since he was picked (meme lady says it all) . Hardly nobody wanted him there outside the management, things didn't develop as everyone hoped and he was getting scratched. He might have been unhappy and wanted a change of scenary. This instantly gives the edge for the team coming with the offer sheet. It's very possible that JK would have forced montreal to qualify him or release him to ufa, but won't do that to Carolina since they got him out of town and especially if he wants to play there.

There are definitely risks, worst case scenarios:
- Carolina finishes bottom of the league without their 1st round pick
- Kotkaniemi is unhappy in Carolina and wants out

However the rewards out weighs the risks; he signs a more friendly extension, things click and he becomes a 40+ pts solid 2C.

Oh and just for the record, I'm a Devils fan so definitely not a Canes fan. I'm just calling it how I see it. Montreal made the right call not matching, but in the big picture they still lose.

 

[sr edler]

Ya it’s not uncommon for teams to miss on their draft picks but for Carolina to pay a sub par player 6 mil is terrible money management during a flat cap.

I guess Teräväinen was a subpar player too because when Carolina acquired him he had only hit 35 points, and he was older than Kotkaniemi. It's not like increased opportunity can do something for a young player. Never has happened.

 

[ismelofhockey]

People get too caught up on the rfa qualify offer, you don't have to qualify a player if you can just sign him to a deal.

That may be true, but you've given the player a strong hand in negotiations. If he doesn't like your offer, he can just take his QO for another $6M... It's hard to pass on that kind of money, see offersheet for case in point.

As for how he was treated in Montreal, he wasn't picked on by fans or media any more than anyone else on the team. It's a demanding fanbase. The media was very supportive during the Cup run.

Kotkaniemi managed to impress the coaching staff enough to break into the league as an 18 year old, so he had the support of his coaches as well as management. Management also went and acquired his boyhood idol in Joel Armia, and they frequently played with Lehkonen, so there's no reason to believe he didn't have the support of his teammates.

His new coach scratched him in the playoffs. OK. If Kotkaniemi wanted out because of that, I'd be worried about his character. I think he just got offered stupid money and couldn't say no to that big of an overpayment. The fact the Canes have Aho and Teravainen likely also helped.

 

[ninetyeight]

That may be true, but you've given the player a strong hand in negotiations. If he doesn't like your offer, he can just take his QO for another $6M... It's hard to pass on that kind of money, see offersheet for case in point.

He doesn't take anything, he either gets qualified or walks. Carolina ain't gonna qualify him unless his play is worth it. And if it's not, nobody else is going to pay that (6m) in UFA either. So if you know your UFA value is around 3m, you might as well just extend with the Canes, especially if you love playing there.

GMs are not stupid no matter what hfboard sometimes think, they've talked to Kotkaniemi and his agent and discussed these things through, evaluated his character. Who knows maybe JK is a money greedy dick, but I think Carolina has a pretty good understanding what is going to happen, which is why they went forward with the os.

 

[ismelofhockey]

He doesn't take anything, he either gets qualified or walks. Carolina ain't gonna qualify him unless his play is worth it. And if it's not, nobody else is going to pay that (6m) in UFA either. So if you know your UFA value is around 3m, you might as well just extend with the Canes, especially if you love playing there.

Let's say he plays well next year. Not $6M well, but well. The Canes want to retain him, but not at $6M. They'll need to tender a QO or see the guy they just traded a 1st and 3rd for walk. Worse, he could sign back in Montreal. Then they'll have paid Montreal a 1st and 3rd to develop Kotkaniemi for them.

It's unlikely to be a cut and dried situation where either Kotkaniemi scores 60 points and deserves $6M or scores 30 and is let go. It's more likely the Canes will like what they see, but won't want to pay him $6M again. In that situation, Kotkaniemi will have leverage. If he doesn't like the long term deals on the table, he can accept his QO or try his luck as a UFA.

Not saying that's how it'll play out for sure. Kotkaniemi could accept a team friendly deal to thank Carolina for sending him a very generous offer sheet. That's possible, too.

 

[HabsAddict]

It’s funny that habs fans can’t admit they got check mated. Carolina would have won no matter what happened, and habs lose either way. But somehow habs fans want to twist it to make it seem like it was a bad move by the canes.

 

[ninetyeight]

Not saying that's how it'll play out for sure.

Anything is possible. I lean more towards them already having a verbal agreement on extension in January, but I see other scenarios easily being possible too. As an outsider it's very intriguing to watch how this whole thing plays out. Kotkaniemi vs Dvorak, how will they do, will Kotkaniemi extend or not, what will those picks turn out to be..

 

[Aurinko]

KK 60 point breakout… Habs fans going to upset about losing KK the next 20 years

Bowmen quote will be haunting as he projected a superstar at 24

Last year he was on 30 pts (normalized) pace and he should be playing in a bottom 6 role, so the development pointwise is limited.

40 pts would be a good result
50+ pts is possible if there are injuries in top 6
60 pts would mean they get him fed in the 1st line and 1st pp

 

[Belial]

Last year he was on 30 pts (normalized) pace and he should be playing in a bottom 6 role, so the development pointwise is limited.

40 pts would be a good result
50+ pts is possible if there are injuries in top 6
60 pts would mean they get him fed in the 1st line and 1st pp

40 points with a 6.1M$ salary would be quite bad.

 

[Aurinko]

40 points with a 6.1M$ salary would be quite bad.

You can look it as a transfer bonus. Obviously It's windfall gains for KK, since the real salary will be more like 4,5M (or whatever they have promised) .

 

[Belial]

You can look it as a transfer bonus. Obviously It's windfall gains for KK, since the real salary will be more like 4,5M.

Was the extension announced or something?

What a futile discussion...

 

[paragon]

Imagine losing your 3rd overall pick 3 years after the draft for a late first. THATS ROUGH!!!!
Canes win BIG

3rd overall is a sunk cost and should have no weigh in how to value a player going forward. Chiarelli thought like you do when he traded for Griffin Reinhart.

Also you can't just ignore the context. The 6.1M (or 4M overpaid) cap space alone was worth a 1st round pick. To match that offersheet to save face because of public that doesn't understand sunk cost fallacy would have been a mistake. And this is coming from someone who's a Finn and likes Canes and dislikes Habs.

 

[Mark9988]

40 points with a 6.1M$ salary would be quite bad.

so you mean kinda like josh anderson, and gally?

 

[Noldo]

40 points with a 6.1M$ salary would be quite bad.

Best for Canes is that Kotkaniemi shows enough promise/development during first half of the season to earn extension around 3.5-4.5 for five years - and then blossoms into bona fide top-6 forward.

 

[Lempo]

Let's say he plays well next year. Not $6M well, but well. The Canes want to retain him, but not at $6M. They'll need to tender a QO or see the guy they just traded a 1st and 3rd for walk. Worse, he could sign back in Montreal. Then they'll have paid Montreal a 1st and 3rd to develop Kotkaniemi for them.

It's unlikely to be a cut and dried situation where either Kotkaniemi scores 60 points and deserves $6M or scores 30 and is let go. It's more likely the Canes will like what they see, but won't want to pay him $6M again. In that situation, Kotkaniemi will have leverage. If he doesn't like the long term deals on the table, he can accept his QO or try his luck as a UFA.

Not saying that's how it'll play out for sure. Kotkaniemi could accept a team friendly deal to thank Carolina for sending him a very generous offer sheet. That's possible, too.

It should be clear after this off-season that Canes will assign a value to a player and then they are very unlikely to give a contract abobe that value (Hamilton, Nedeljkovic). Market value (what someone else is willing to pay) may be higher than the Canes-assigned value. Kotkaniemi indeed does have an amount of leverage to drive his price higher when the extension is worked out during the next spring. We'll see.

 

[Aurinko]

3rd overall is a sunk cost and should have no weigh in how to value a player going forward. Chiarelli thought like you do when he traded for Griffin Reinhart.

Also you can't just ignore the context. The 6.1M (or 4M overpaid) cap space alone was worth a 1st round pick. To match that offersheet to save face because of public that doesn't understand sunk cost fallacy would have been a mistake. And this is coming from someone who's a Finn and likes Canes and dislikes Habs.

For MTL it was worth to save the capspace, for Canes it is a different story because of the way QO works.

All got what they wanted. MTL a straight up immediate upgrade and the Canes a defensive bottom line center who still has plenty of time to develop until his prime.

 

[paragon]

For MTL it was worth to save the capspace, for Canes it is a different story because of the way QO works.

It's no different for Canes. They will have to qualify Kotkaniemi for 6.1M going foward. Kotkaniemi has close to zero reasons to leave millions on the table on his next contract. He gets to choose between 6.1M or hitting unrestricted free agency early. Only way Kotkaniemi can lose is to willingly donate millions to a billionaire.

 

[Trabdy2]

As a Habs fan I found it a bit hard to be excited about JK the past year, despite his draft position. He hasn't shown a lot of improvement in production and consistency over his first 3 years, and he doesn't seem to be a guy you want on the ice late in a one goal game. He surely has some tools, but can't seem to put his game together and be consistent shift to shift or game to game to make a big impact.

I was shocked to see the 6.1M offer because that's about twice the AAV I was expecting on his next contract.

Has room to grow in his game and is still young, but my expectations for him dropped a lot over the last season. I don't see 1st line potential in his game anymore, but there is still 2nd line C potential. If he plays like he did last year, he'll probably find himself on the 3rd or 4th line in Carolina this season, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him watching a few games in the press box, which will be a bit odd with his salary.

 

[Noldo]

It's no different for Canes. They will have to qualify Kotkaniemi for 6.1M going foward. Kotkaniemi has close to zero reasons to leave millions on the table on his next contract. He gets to choose between 6.1M or hitting unrestricted free agency early. Only way Kotkaniemi can lose is to willingly donate millions to a billionaire.

Kotkaniemi has no reason to sign short term below his new qualifying offer. But guaranteed 16-20 million (4x4 - 5x4 million) is desirable compared to guaranteed 6 million.

 

[cave troll]

Ppl here really believe KK will be ahead of Trocheck and Staal???????
They will probably try him on wing.

 

[Trabdy2]

Ppl here really believe KK will be ahead of Trocheck and Staal???????
They will probably try him on wing.

Agreed. He has not shown he can make the impact of Aho, Staal or Trocheck, so he'd play minimal minutes at C behind them all.

On the wing he's kind of awkward because he doesn't have very good speed, and isn't very natural at finding scoring positions. But I think they'll have to try him there to get any reasonable amount of ice time for his development.