Confirmed Signing with Link: [CAR/MTL] Canadiens do not match Kotkaniemi offer sheet (1 year, $6.1M), receive 2022 1st, 2022 3rd

[paragon]

Kotkaniemi has no reason to sign short term below his new qualifying offer. But guaranteed 16-20 million (4x4 - 5x4 million) is desirable compared to guaranteed 6 million.

So you think they will let him walk next off-season because of the 6.1M QO? Zero percent change. If I was Kotkaniemi or his agent I would tell the team that I would consider the deal next year and just sign the QO they are forced to offer. Kotkaniemi is already guaranteed 12M, because Canes can't just let him just walk in one year.

Longer deal is also does him no good because it means he loses the power to play for the team of his choosing. Who's to say Carolina won't just flip him to Buffalo if he signs a long term deal? Or buy him out later if he keeps underperfoming? If I was Kotkaniemi the only way I would leave 8.5M on the table (on your 4x4 contract) is to make a deal with Canes where they refuse to QO, I become a unrestricted free agent and then sign a deal with full signing bonuses and NMC to protect from trade and buy-out. Otherwise I just keep signing 1 year deals until the long deals are worth more than 6M per year. Kotkaniemi has all the leverage, it's either money or free agency.

 

[Gh24]

I like the Bowman comparison between KK and BL

I hope he becomes a great 2C for Canes

 

[gwh]

It's no different for Canes. They will have to qualify Kotkaniemi for 6.1M going foward. Kotkaniemi has close to zero reasons to leave millions on the table on his next contract. He gets to choose between 6.1M or hitting unrestricted free agency early. Only way Kotkaniemi can lose is to willingly donate millions to a billionaire.

It is a package deal, otherwise this wouldn't take place. I think 6+3+3+3 = 15 = Less than 4m AAV. 2025 summer RFA -> trade or sign again.

How about being less of a homer and looking at it rationally? MTL got someone to replace Danault for Kotkaniemi, 4-5 places drop in the 1st draft round and swapping 2nd for 3rd.

 

[Noldo]

Otherwise I just keep signing 1 year deals until the long deals are worth more than 6M per year. Kotkaniemi has all the leverage, it's either money or free agency.

Well, yes and no. It isn’t really different from any other young player pondering between bridge deal and long term contract. Do I bet on myself that I will be worth more eventually, risking injury or flat out regression or do I think that that the long term deal presented represents fair value and want to take the guaranteed money.

Kotkaniemi is all but guaranteed at least one more year at 6.1 per, years thereafter are a question. If he and Carolina feel like good fit, signing long term (at least 4 or 5 years) gives good security for the long term. Just like players resigning with their current team before becoming UFA, even though they could potentially have gotten more in free agency.

 

[613Leafer]

Montreal probably made the right move not to match, but the overall result of this isn't good for them. They essentially traded Kotkaniemi + 2nd + a pick swap for a lower 1st for Dvorak + 3rd.

From Carolina's perspective, it's obviously a gamble. Kotkaniemi needs to take a fairly significant step forward for this to be worth it. But frankly teams throw away the equivalent of a 1st + 3rd at the trade deadline almost every year for rental depth players (e.g. Leafs traded a 1st + two 4ths for Foligno), so trading that for a 21 year old recent 3rd OA pick is a much better gamble. The main problem from Carolina's perspective is obviously the caphit, because Kotkaniemi should probably have been signed to like a ~2-3M short-term deal, not a 6.1M one. But that's how offersheets work - you NEED to overpay if you actually want to get the player.

This one will be interesting to watch.

 

[paragon]

It is a package deal, otherwise this wouldn't take place. I think 6+3+3+3 = 15 = Less than 4m AAV.

Pointless speculation. Also againt the cba, so unenforceable by Canes.

How about being less of a homer and looking at it rationally? MTL got someone to replace Danault for Kotkaniemi, 4-5 places drop in the 1st draft round and swapping 2nd for 3rd.

I am looking at it rationally, because I'm not a fan. Also players either know or should know that these orgs are not their friends. They will waive, bury, trade or buy them out in a drop of a hat, if it makes the team better. Toronto traded Grabovski one day before his wedding.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Mr.Bean is a Hurricane

Thanks a lot. I will never be able to not see that now.

 

[NJ DevLolz]

Habs fan celebrating and rationalizing losing their 3rd overall pick to a hostile offer sheet

Sunk cost fallacy

 

[powerstuck]

Now all that is missing if for Canes and Habs to meet in the postseason and have KK score the series winning goal instead of being benched.

 

[gwh]

Pointless speculation. Also againt the cba, so unenforceableby Canes.
I am looking at it rationally, because I'm not a fan. Also players either know or should know that these orgs are not their friends. They will waive, bury, trade or buy them out in a drop of a hat, if it makes the team better. Toronto traded Grabovski one day before his wedding.

Facepalm. Very rational, much balance. Carry on, i ll come to point fingers when extension appears the very 1st day it can be signed.

 

[powerstuck]

Reading 40 pages of Habs fans being happy with the issue and telling how shitty KK is…I really wonder what would have happened if Canes made an 4-4.5 OS.

I think Habs would have matched but how do you justify in one scenario calling a guy overpaid garbage and in another being happy you didn’t lose him.

I’m pretty sure Canes will do great with KK and it’s not impossible for Arizona to end up with a 11th overall pick after the trade and Habs having a 25-26th pick, at a home draft, while missing playoffs (no matter how deep the said draft is).

 

[GrandBison]

For MTL it was worth to save the capspace, for Canes it is a different story because of the way QO works.

All got what they wanted. MTL a straight up immediate upgrade and the Canes a defensive bottom line center who still has plenty of time to develop until his prime.

In Montreal, he had very limited defensive assignments.

 

[LOFIN]

So you think they will let him walk next off-season because of the 6.1M QO? Zero percent change. If I was Kotkaniemi or his agent I would tell the team that I would consider the deal next year and just sign the QO they are forced to offer. Kotkaniemi is already guaranteed 12M, because Canes can't just let him just walk in one year.

Why wouldn't they? A first and a 3rd is not that much of a price for a rental piece, which Kotkaniemi essentially is at this point until an extension takes place. IF he doesn't break through to earn that QO, they will tell him here's a multi year deal with less AAV, take it or leave it. At that point sure, he can take his chances at free agency but do you think he would get a multi year deal at that 6 million from there either? No chance. And players do leave money on the table all the time to go to a specific team or stay with their own team.

The idea that the Canes are somehow tied to Kotkaniemi for 2 years at 12 million is probably the stupidest thing I've ever read on HfBoards, and that's saying a lot. For a late first and a 3rd they sure as hell can let him walk if he's not worth his QO and won't sign for less. I mean the Leafs paid a 1st and two 4th round picks for Nick Foligno rental. Tampa paid a 1st, a 3rd and a 4th for David Savard rental. In 2019 WPG paid New York a 1st and Brendan Lemieux for Kevin Hayes rental. Columbus paid a 1st for Duchene rental. All of these players walked after the season. So why would Carolina have a problem walking away from Kotkaniemi if he doesn't satisfy them/won't sign for a deal of their liking?

 

[GrandBison]

Why wouldn't they? A first and a 3rd is not that much of a price for a rental piece, which Kotkaniemi essentially is at this point until an extension takes place. IF he doesn't break through to earn that QO, they will tell him here's a multi year deal with less AAV, take it or leave it. At that point sure, he can take his chances at free agency but do you think he would get a multi year deal at that 6 million from there either? No chance. And players do leave money on the table all the time to go to a specific team or stay with their own team.

The idea that the Canes are somehow tied to Kotkaniemi for 2 years at 12 million is probably the stupidest thing I've ever read on HfBoards, and that's saying a lot. For a late first and a 3rd they sure as hell can let him walk if he's not worth his QO and won't sign for less. I mean the Leafs paid a 1st and two 4th round picks for Nick Foligno rental. Tampa paid a 1st, a 3rd and a 4th for David Savard rental. In 2019 WPG paid New York a 1st and Brendan Lemieux for Kevin Hayes rental. Columbus paid a 1st for Duchene rental. All of these players walked after the season. So why would Carolina have a problem walking away from Kotkaniemi if he doesn't satisfy them/won't sign for a deal of their liking?

What role do you expect Kotkaniemi to play as a rental?

 

[LOFIN]

What role do you expect Kotkaniemi to play as a rental?

I'm not a Carolina fan so no idea where they will slot him in the line up. My point was that the price Carolina paid to get Kotkaniemi isn't really out of line, and they should have no problem walking away from him after this year if all goes to hell. The idea that they would be forced to sign that QO because they are afraid of losing him is ludicrous. That might've been the case for Montreal had they matched because he's their pick and they have invested so much in him, but Carolina paid a basic rental price in draft assets to get him. The big salary was an asset used in the deal as well.

 

[GrandBison]

Question: how pro scouts could evaluate enigmatic players like Kotkaniemi when he played all season in rinks where there was no spectator? Watching the same games we watched?

 

[GM Armchair]

I guess Teräväinen was a subpar player too because when Carolina acquired him he had only hit 35 points, and he was older than Kotkaniemi. It's not like increased opportunity can do something for a young player. Never has happened.

You can try to polish a turd all you want but in the end it’s still a turd

 

[Aurinko]

In Montreal, he had very limited defensive assignments.

I'm sure you are right, but his on ice stats were also pointing that he was playing more defensive game than his replacement players on the lines. Im referring to goals against number (season 20-21) being lower with him, than with the replacement.

 

[GrandBison]

I'm not a Carolina fan so no idea where they will slot him in the line up. My point was that the price Carolina paid to get Kotkaniemi isn't really out of line, and they should have no problem walking away from him after this year if all goes to hell. The idea that they would be forced to sign that QO because they are afraid of losing him is ludicrous. That might've been the case for Montreal had they matched because he's their pick and they have invested so much in him, but Carolina paid a basic rental price in draft assets to get him. The big salary was an asset used in the deal as well.

You are right they can walk away... or even trade him at the deadline for a better asset for the playoffs.

 

[paragon]

Facepalm. Very rational, much balance. Carry on, i ll come to point fingers when extension appears the very 1st day it can be signed.

I get that you can't look at this objectively. I'm looking forward to your attempt to gloat, captain hindsight.

 

[GrandBison]

I'm sure you are right, but his on ice stats were also pointing that he was playing more defensive game than his replacement players on the lines. Im referring to goals against number (season 20-21) being lower with him, than with the replacement.

Don't want to argue the stats. Does that include PK? Could that be cause he was on very sheltered minutes with PP and no PK?

 

[paragon]

Why wouldn't they?
Simply because Dundon made this personal. He's got too much pride on the line after the $35 signing bonus. He would look like a fool for giving a 1st, 3rd and 6M for one year of Kotkaniemi just for him to go back to Montreal.
I mean the Leafs paid a 1st and two 4th round picks for Nick Foligno rental. Tampa paid a 1st, a 3rd and a 4th for David Savard rental. In 2019 WPG paid New York a 1st and Brendan Lemieux for Kevin Hayes rental. Columbus paid a 1st for Duchene rental. All of these players walked after the season. So why would Carolina have a problem walking away from Kotkaniemi if he doesn't satisfy them/won't sign for a deal of their liking?

I can't believe you are comparing mid-season rentals to an off-season move. How is it possible to conflate the cap implications after all Kucherov talk from last year? Salary cap is the reason for those returns. It's what allows teams to go over the top and it doesn't apply to Kotkaniemi at all.

 

[Revansky]

Good move by the Canes. I think you got yourself a good 3 C that should become a good 2C in a season or two. There's always the outside chance he may become a 60-70 points C too.

Habs didn't play their cards well but have made the best of a bad situation with Dvorak.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

It's simple for the Canes. Either he fails, at which point they don't offer his qualifying offer and let him walk to FA.

Or he succeeds, at which point they attempt to negotiate a new deal. If he doesn't like the new deal, again, they let him walk to FA.

They've got nothing invested in KK beside a 1st and a 3rd, and as already pointed out, that's no different than paying similar prices at the deadline. Canes just get a full year instead of a couple months with their rental.

 

[MrNasty]

I don’t know how many times you slice it. If KK is let go by the Canes after 1 season then this becomes a major fail. You don’t poach a 21 year old player as a rental and you don’t trade a 1 st round pick and take a full year of 6M in cap space for a rental when you don’t know how well your season is going to be.
They need to commit to him long term one way or another to make this deal worthwhile.