Post-Game Talk: Caps v. Flyers

[searle]

Okay, thanks. Still disagree. As was pointed out it's a critical advantage for special teams and one goal games (doesnt matter if its a one goal lead or deficit). Especially for the situations when to secure the win you gotta win that draw because there's no time on the clock to get the possession back. The opponents will take the puck, get it to the trigger man and go crashing the net. You gotta have a reliable player to not let that happen.

is there any data on the topic?

would be interested to see if there was a greater statistical chance of conceding after losing a faceoff - I seem to remember that it didn't actually have much of an impact, will try to track the article down...

 

[Melkor]

is there any data on the topic?

would be interested to see if there was a greater statistical chance of conceding after losing a faceoff - I seem to remember that it didn't actually have much of an impact, will try to track the article down...

I'm just annoyed with how often this season and for how long Caps were pinned down in their own zone after losing FO on PK and how often they've had troubles with gaining an offensive zone on PP situations. Both situations were the result of losing a FO. Not gonna lie, I don't have a specific data on the matter, just see it as a bad sign and they need to fix it if they want to win it out in the playoffs.

 

[searle]

Searching for a link between winning faceoffs and NHL games
The above says there's no correlation
http://statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/FaceoffAnalysis12-12.pdf
"For a player that wins 60% of their 1200 faceoffs, taking 20% more faceoffs outside the neutral zone can add an additional 3 goals or one win per season."

One source seems to say it's negligible, the other says it has an impact, but only a small one.

Yet to find a reliable source that indicates that faceoff percentages are a stat that actually influence the outcome of games.

 

[searle]

I'm just annoyed with how often this season and for how long Caps were pinned down in their own zone after losing FO on PK and how often they've had troubles with gaining an offensive zone on PP situations. Both situations were the result of losing a FO. Not gonna lie, I don't have a specific data on the matter, just see it as a bad sign and they need to fix it if they want to win it out in the playoffs.

Fair enough - seems more like the issue may be stemming from defensive setup/puck recovery, and is just being highlighted when we lose a faceoff and can't recover?

As others have mentioned the low frequency of defensive zone faceoffs mean the difference between 46% and 52% is only a handful of plays,.

Faceoffs don't seem something that should be a priority (especially in terms of spending assets trying to fix it), though would never be a bad thing to improve on.

Your point about having a crappy FO% on the PK makes a lot more sense though - haven't read anything on that, but a defensive zone, PK faceoff seems a more important one to win for sure

 

[twabby]

http://statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/FaceoffAnalysis12-12.pdf

This analysis is a bit dated but it passes the sniff test. This is the part I'm looking at:

It makes sense that special teams faceoffs are worth quite a bit more than ES faceoffs, but in general it takes a +76.5 faceoff differential to have a goal differential of +1, at least according to this analysis.

So it would take Jay Beagle (a career 56% faceoff guy) 1,275 faceoffs on average to add a +1 in goal differential based solely on his faceoff prowess. Even if you restrict him to taking the higher leverage faceoffs only it will take at least 500+ faceoffs to add a single goal to their differential compared to an average faceoff player.

Getting someone who is good at faceoffs is fine, but they need to add value elsewhere because being good at faceoffs alone just isn't enough.

Edit: @searle beat me to the punch!

 

[Silky mitts]

So Jaskin has a positive effect on the faceoffs, pushes Kuzy up 15%, maybe he helps the top line? No, put Jaskin on the top line and it turns from dominant to the 2nd worst line in the NHL this year.

8-92-43 has been worse than Kuzy's baseline but that's the money maker, it is clearly a strength if not the strength of the team and provides context for being last in faceoffs.