Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 Training Camp Edition

[tenken00]

 

[Hivemind]

Good. Quality. Fair.

You're talking about a year he apparently finished hurt and a bubble playoff. Maybe we should also include the games he played at LD, that was the Carolina series wasn't it? I'm sure he looked just awful, add the stats in there.

All I'm seeing are excuses. Injuries definitely aren't ever a concern for non-Capitals players, and all the Caps players will definitely not ever be bothered again by injuries in the future, right? And it's just a wonderful thing for this team that they mailed in the bubble playoffs. After all, none of the other teams in the league had to deal with that bubble situation, right? It's an absolutely positive sign from one of the team's Alternate Captains to be leading that vacation mentality charge!


You're also blatantly ignoring the context of the discussion. Sam Girard's abilities were being discounted because of a bad playoff series. I was simply analyzing Carlson using the same logic.

 

[Langway]

Not at all. Carlson deserves credit for his contributions offensively, it's just not enough to have him definitively as a top 30 defenseman in the NHL when combined with his poor defensive efforts. He could be top 30, it's probably murky, but I can't take issue with JFresh leaving him out of the top 30.

Yet the same critique does not appear to go for Quinn Hughes, who faces weaker competition and doesn't kill penalties. Is it better to put up some stronger underlying stats in a more protected role or be a player trusted in all situations with weaker underlying performance in some ways? I'd still most often go with the most trusted all-around player. One can make the argument that he's young and will continue to improve but that's not necessarily true in all facets.

I'd still have a guy like Drew Doughty in the top 30 regardless of the numbers. Team effects and coaching can greatly influence part of the context that is indicated in underlying stats. Guys like Girard, Hughes and Krug would be a lot closer to top 50 at best for me mostly because they're insulated talents and that's the case for a good reason. Put them in a similar role as a much more criticized player and you're very likely looking at a very different picture.

 

[HTFN]

All I'm seeing are excuses. Injuries definitely aren't ever a concern for non-Capitals players, and all the Caps players will definitely not ever be bothered again by injuries in the future, right? And it's just a wonderful thing for this team that they mailed in the bubble playoffs. After all, none of the other teams in the league had to deal with that bubble situation, right? It's an absolutely positive sign from one of the team's Alternate Captains to be leading that vacation mentality charge!

Of course you are, only joke I know with no punchline.

You're out here arguing why it's fine for a "star" to look completely overwhelmed by playoff hockey because statistically Carlson looks no better and then ignoring some pretty good reasons for that aren't "the player is small and gets pushed around easily". One is likely to improve because he's 23 and his potential rating's got to still be a solid B at least, the other guy was just, you know, injured.

But now it's all plus minus because you were informed Carlson's got something like 13 points in the last 17 games, I think it was? Sure looks to me like the guy who was producing during the Islanders series was trying to do something, or does it not count as effort on the powerplay? You have literally excused one of the guys just because you feel he'll get better at it and called some pretty valid considerations "excuses". It's Rierden and Holtby's last combined ride and you expected what from the team's minute munching defensemen? A team called in from vacation just to know they're about to go back on vacation because of their head coach's ability to be a head coach and you want them to do... what?

 

[twabby]

Yet the same critique does not appear to go for Quinn Hughes, who faces weaker competition and doesn't kill penalties. Is it better to put up some stronger underlying stats in a more protected role or be a player trusted in all situations with weaker underlying performance in some ways? I'd still most often go with the most trusted all-around player. One can make the argument that he's young and will continue to improve but that's not necessarily true in all facets.

I'd still have a guy like Drew Doughty in the top 30 regardless of the numbers. Team effects and coaching can greatly influence part of the context that is indicated in underlying stats. Guys like Girard, Hughes and Krug would be a lot closer to top 50 at best for me mostly because they're insulated talents and that's the case for a good reason. Put them in a similar role as a much more criticized player and you're very likely looking at a very different picture.

Generally speaking, players who are strong in sheltered deployments also fare well when the deployments get tougher. So I'm not sure I agree with your assessment that a putting the more insulated players like Girard or Hughes in tougher deployments would alter their numbers much. It's also why I don't agree that players like Drew Doughty (or Seth Jones, Rasmus Ristolainen, etc.) should be anywhere near the top 30. Just because they play a lot of tough minutes doesn't mean they would do much better in easier minutes.

Hockeyviz, for instance, estimates the following parameters and their impacts:

Spoiler: Estimated on-ice impacts of various attributes

In general, QoC and zone starts are much less important than other factors when looking at on-ice results. Indeed, the criticism of Dmitry Orlov early in his career was that he put up great underlying numbers but they were in third pairing minutes and deployments and that they wouldn't translate if he was moved up, including in the playoffs. However, every time he was given more responsibility he showed the same great underlying play, including in the playoffs. He probably legitimately improved, but I also think it's the case that "soft" overall deployments aren't really that much more difficult than "tough" overall deployments mainly due to the fact that everyone deals with on-the-fly changes, everyone plays in both zones, and the parity in the league is quite high. 4th lines and 3rd pairings are much better now than they used to be, so everyone is playing against good players.

In the case of Quinn Hughes, he probably took a step back last year and I wouldn't be against taking him out of the top 30. But I'm also not going to say that Carlson is certainly better than him either. Again, it's murky.

 

[Langway]

But coaching does stand out as influential, as do teammates. I don't buy usage being immaterial. It may be less influential but in the case of Orlov it could also have a lot to do with experience and development aiding his ability rather than the earlier play proving he had the capacity all along. There are situations like Schmidt when he was in DC where he deserved many more minutes but in large part coaches get it right. Insulating a player and not putting them on the PK happens for good reasons. With more experience maybe they take on a larger role but it's different over time than believing the same player years ago having already been capable of it. Maybe but it's the chief logical loophole I find in such conclusions.

I don't extend the same belief to Jones & Ristolainen but we'll see this season how they fare in new environments. Ristolainen isn't close to top 30 but maybe Jones finds confidence in Chicago with more skill alongside some explosive offensive firepower. I tend to think he'll continue to struggle just as much, if not more, defensively on that team and that's he's not really close to that level. With Doughty it's about the resume in part but recently teammates have been problematic. I take a far less analytical take in would I want a certain player on my team than this other one. For me D like Hughes, Girard and Krug fall a good bit down because of their limitations. Say what you want theoretically, I don't think they've got what it takes to be truly dominant all-around. Doughty maybe isn't that these days but it's also a bit hard to fully judge on a rebuilding team.

 

[HTFN]

I like you bringing up Schmidt, because he briefly became what a lot of us thought he could be... and then fell off that level. Sometimes these things come and go in waves like with goaltenders. You're not worth studying until you give them a reason to study you, but then there's a book on you and now you need to prove capable of evolving again to stay ahead. Orlov stays ahead because he's got a ton of tools and the limiting factor has generally been his own brain, other guys have shorter peaks as they're broken down quicker by coaches and players.

Sheltering can go beyond zone starts and the like, being sheltered from the focus of the other team is also an important part of that growth period.

 

[HecticGlow]

I like you bringing up Schmidt, because he briefly became what a lot of us thought he could be... and then fell off that level. Sometimes these things come and go in waves like with goaltenders. You're not worth studying until you give them a reason to study you, but then there's a book on you and now you need to prove capable of evolving again to stay ahead. Orlov stays ahead because he's got a ton of tools and the limiting factor has generally been his own brain, other guys have shorter peaks as they're broken down quicker by coaches and players.

Sheltering can go beyond zone starts and the like, being sheltered from the focus of the other team is also an important part of that growth period.

Didn’t Schmidt enjoy success under Gallant, and most of his poorer play in Vegas occur under DeBoer? Conversely, Stephenson succeeded under DeBoer (and to a lesser extent Trotz) in a way he never could under Reirden. Coaching, linemates and schematics definitely impact some players more than others. It’ll be interesting to see which version of Schmidt (and Dillon) Winnipeg ends up with.

 

[Hivemind]

Of course you are, only joke I know with no punchline.

You're out here arguing why it's fine for a "star" to look completely overwhelmed by playoff hockey because statistically Carlson looks no better and then ignoring some pretty good reasons for that aren't "the player is small and gets pushed around easily". One is likely to improve because he's 23 and his potential rating's got to still be a solid B at least, the other guy was just, you know, injured.

But now it's all plus minus because you were informed Carlson's got something like 13 points in the last 17 games, I think it was? Sure looks to me like the guy who was producing during the Islanders series was trying to do something, or does it not count as effort on the powerplay? You have literally excused one of the guys just because you feel he'll get better at it and called some pretty valid considerations "excuses". It's Rierden and Holtby's last combined ride and you expected what from the team's minute munching defensemen? A team called in from vacation just to know they're about to go back on vacation because of their head coach's ability to be a head coach and you want them to do... what?

Here you go with your strawman arguments again. Please show me where I have "excused" Girard for anything (spoiler - I haven't). I've simply pointed out that if you apply the same standard to Carlson as Girard, Carlson fares just as bad (if not worse). Y'all hold up one standard, then get upset when that same standard is applied to a player in red.

When a player is one the ice for TWELVE GOALS AGAINST IN FIVE GAMES, you'd expect them to be a goaltender. Carlson ain't a goalie. But, congrats, he got a bunch of powerplay assists by standing in between Alexander Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov when the Caps had a man advantage. Certainly no other player would have been capable of fulfilling such a role! The 1-3-1 powerplay has always struggled whenever it was manned at the point by Mike Green, Matt Niskanen, or Kevin Shattenkirk. Only JC74 can make that unit hum!

Nobody has contested that Carlson is bad at the powerplay, it's just been contested that he's not the driver of the powerplay (and further still, his value on the powerplay doesn't make up for his current salary or his poor even strength play in the playoffs). Carlson has just two even strength points in the past three playoffs combined. None against Boston. Zero goals (powerplay or otherwise) during those three playoffs. His vaunted offensive abilities have not carried over to the playoffs anywhere outside of the powerplay, and that powerplay unit has been hot-and-cold at best during these past three playoffs (I seem to remember a lot of frustration about it during the Boston series). So if his offensive game isn't translating, he's got to make up his value defensively. And guess what, he hasn't. That's why I'm pointing out the ridiculous goals against totals he's allowed.

You know what I want them to do in those bubble playoffs? Show up and try to win a Cup. I don't think that's some ridiculous notion. They weren't the only team coming out of vacation, the entire league was. It wasn't some unique barrier they faced that other teams didn't. Yet they air mailed it in, Carlson included. Trying to use the team's overall lazy play as a defense of any particular player is absurd. Every member of the franchise deserves to have their feet held to the fire for that turd of a performance.

But of course, none of this is Carlson's fault. It's all on Reirden and Holtby, nothing could possibly be the fault of the skaters on the ice. There's no way that the players on the team took the excursion less than seriously, and certainly nobody in the media reported that they did. The only people who are to blame for the Capitals' shortcomings are the ones who have left the Capitals. The ones still in Washington are all blameless, got it.

 

[txpd]

Ah,,,,Players that are sheltered are good when not sheltered which means they dont need to be sheltered. Coaches are idiots.

 

[twabby]

But coaching does stand out as influential, as do teammates. I don't buy usage being immaterial. It may be less influential but in the case of Orlov it could also have a lot to do with experience and development aiding his ability rather than the earlier play proving he had the capacity all along. There are situations like Schmidt when he was in DC where he deserved many more minutes but in large part coaches get it right. Insulating a player and not putting them on the PK happens for good reasons. With more experience maybe they take on a larger role but it's different over time than believing the same player years ago having already been capable of it. Maybe but it's the chief logical loophole I find in such conclusions.

I don't extend the same belief to Jones & Ristolainen but we'll see this season how they fare in new environments. Ristolainen isn't close to top 30 but maybe Jones finds confidence in Chicago with more skill alongside some explosive offensive firepower. I tend to think he'll continue to struggle just as much, if not more, defensively on that team and that's he's not really close to that level. With Doughty it's about the resume in part but recently teammates have been problematic. I take a far less analytical take in would I want a certain player on my team than this other one. For me D like Hughes, Girard and Krug fall a good bit down because of their limitations. Say what you want theoretically, I don't think they've got what it takes to be truly dominant all-around. Doughty maybe isn't that these days but it's also a bit hard to fully judge on a rebuilding team.

I don't think usage is immaterial, but I think it's way overblown. Far too many players get passes for poor play because they are playing the opposition's best, while far too many players are discounted because they do well in more insulated minutes. I'd rather give other guys a chance rather than sticking with those who have given a chance but have done poorly.

I'm not claiming that Hughes, Girard, or Krug are going to be all-around dominant players. There are very few of those in the NHL, probably less than 7 or 8. But when it comes to just ranking or tiering these players there's the same reason to be skeptical of Drew Doughty as some sort of all-around dynamo.

 

[Langway]

But when it comes to just ranking or tiering these players there's the same reason to be skeptical of Drew Doughty as some sort of all-around dynamo.

Sure but he at least has it on his resume, although he's getting older, and were I starting a team I'd largely trend toward defense over offense. Not to the detriment of offense but with that bent rather than the opposite. It takes a special talent to err the other way around and for me those three fall short of that to consider them basically #1 defensemen. I'm not sure they're really even #2's, at least not ideally. The younger two may improve further but I'd largely still steer clear of that sort of defenseman in building a team. The game would need to get considerably smaller and softer to put a premium on them. Either that or they'd need to progress offensively even further or in their all-around hockey IQ to become more along the lines of a prime Karlsson. Their physical limitations are too pronounced to consider them that high IMO.

It's a matter of taste. I don't think any raft of numbers is going to be terribly persuasive. It's still about structuring, fit and what sort of skill set is valued.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

What do Caps fans expect the goalie splits to be like this year?

Which of Samsonov/Vanecek have looked better in the preseason

 

[Raikkonen]

Oh, those were the days of mega defense with 4 guys of National Team level (Orpik, Niskanen, Carlson, Orlov). Now we have only two and it shows. Also better Holtby was helping a lot too.

Its just another stage for Caps right now. Nothing to do here. Im all for letting young potentially top-4 guys learn (AA and MF). Results will suffer now obviously.

 

[um]

Oh, those were the days of mega defense with 4 guys of National Team level (Orpik, Niskanen, Carlson, Orlov). Now we have only two and it shows. Also better Holtby was helping a lot too.

Its just another stage for Caps right now. Nothing to do here. Im all for letting young potentially top-4 guys learn (AA and MF). Results will suffer now obviously.

I only care about results in the playoffs. Rookies get better with time, you gotta play them.

 

[Hivemind]

What do Caps fans expect the goalie splits to be like this year?

Which of Samsonov/Vanecek have looked better in the preseason

Who knows and about the same. Both show flashes of promise followed by brain farts

 

[SherVaughn30]

What do Caps fans expect the goalie splits to be like this year?

Which of Samsonov/Vanecek have looked better in the preseason

Vanecek has had the edge. I would say 45 starts for Vanecek and 37 for Samsonov. Vanecek has already proven he can give the Caps a long stretch of solid starts. Samsonov doesn't seem to be there yet in that regard.

 

[aonb]

i'm busy 24/7 these days, how bad is ov's injury? why no backstrom at all? is he good to go at opening night?

 

[tenken00]

 

[tenken00]

NovaCaps makes a case for Beck the Check:

https://novacapsfans.com/2021/10/09/the-case-for-beck-malenstyn/

...Malenstyn is a different type of player than Hagelin. He’s a 6’-2”, physicial forward, who loves to hit opposing players. In fact he led the team in hits in each of the three preseason games he played in this fall. Hagelin, on the other hand, is a winger who generates problems for the opposing team with his speed.

Hagelin has been a stalwart on the penalty kill for the Caps, but Malenstyn is also very good on the penalty kill. He was a leader on the Hershey Bears’ penalty kill during his last season in the AHL, as the Bears finished the 2019-20 season with the league’s best penalty kill at 87.3%.

Yes, Malenstyn differs from Hagelin with regards to style of play, but it could be argued Malenstyn is a perfect fit with Nic Dowd and Garnet Hathaway, and the style of game they play. Malenstyn expanded on his own perception of his game in an interview with NoVa Caps in 2019...

... With the departure of Brenden Dillon and Zdeno Chara, it could be argued that the Capitals lost a significant part of their team “grit” in the offseason. Malenstyn will also drop the gloves...

 

[HecticGlow]

Laviolette and GMBM said they wanted to get younger this season, and there aren’t currently many opportunities for that:

Chara > Fever
Backstrom > CMM/Jimi (temporarily)
Dillon = TVR/Kempny
Vanecek = Vanecek (former Seattle goaltender)

For a team that didn’t make any NHL acquisitions this off season, you do wonder if putting Malenstyn in the lineup over a vet might be in their ‘get younger’ plans? Especially if he’s good 5v5, fast and a good PKer.

 

[tenken00]

Laviolette and GMBM said they wanted to get younger this season, and there aren’t currently many opportunities for that:

Chara > Fever
Backstrom > CMM/Jimi (temporarily)
Dillon = TVR/Kempny
Vanecek = Vanecek (former Seattle goaltender)

For a team that didn’t make any NHL acquisitions this off season, you do wonder if putting Malenstyn in the lineup over a vet might be in their ‘get younger’ plans? Especially if he’s good 5v5, fast and a good PKer.

Between Fehervary, McMichael/Lapierre, Malenstyn, Sprong, Mantha and Samsonov/Vanecek, we don't seem so old anymore. At least not as oldish

 

[895]

Any roster decision that makes the team younger and worse now but makes the team better in the future while not impacting Ovechkin's hunt for 895 is okay with me.





Edit: Oh he's injured. Ugh.

 

[HecticGlow]

Between Fehervary, McMichael/Lapierre, Malenstyn, Sprong, Mantha and Samsonov/Vanecek, we don't seem so old anymore. At least not as oldish

Still, given how many defensemen the team has drafted and nurtured over the years, it’s disappointing that only 1 of our top-7 is under 30 (Fehevary). As guys like Kempny and Schultz’s deals expire, it would be really nice to see some other young defensemen ready to step up.

 

[TheLegendOfPatPeake]

Predictions for the final opening roster?

I want it to shake out like this but probably won’t when it comes to the extras.

Ovechkin - Kuznetsov - Wilson

Mantha - Eller - Sprong

Sheary - McMichael - Oshie

Malenstyn - Dowd - Hathaway

Fever - Carlson

Orlov - Schultz

TVR - Jensen

Extras:
Hagelin
Irwin