News Article: Cap to stay at around 81.5 million the next 3 years

[Romang67]

NHL/NHLPA talks on CBA include escrow cap, salary deferral for players - Sportsnet.ca

This could have major implications.

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[SoCalJetsFan]

Well then I think Chevy’s hard work and negotiating skills will be Well rewarded for the next 3 years. Having Fefe, Ehlers, Connor, Helly and JoMo all on team friendly contracts will be huge down the road.

Teams like Toronto that have huge money tied up in very few players were likely counting a great deal on the cap increasing constantly and will have serious cap issues going forward.

 

[surixon]

I think its a very reasonable solution for both sides. It allows teams cap certainty and allows most teams to escape major roster surgery.

It gives the players certainty on their pay cheques and allows them to spread their escrow obligation over a number of years while revenues rebound.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I wonder if it means Laine would have made more if he signed last year before flat cap. Does this now mean Laine will sign long term for 8 mil? He’ll still be the highest paid jet.

 

[Cypruss]

Well then I think Chevy’s hard work and negotiating skills will be Well rewarded for the next 3 years. Having Fefe, Ehlers, Connor, Helly and JoMo all on team friendly contracts will be huge down the road.

Teams like Toronto that have huge money tied up in very few players were likely counting a great deal on the cap increasing constantly and will have serious cap issues going forward.

While I agree completely with your assessment, I do strongly feel that the NHL will throw the teams some sort of life-line to buy their way out of this mess. Something like 2 buyouts over the next 2 years which do NOT count against the current and future cap like it does now.

Jets WOULD have been in a really strong spot - but the others are going to get relief of some sort, unfortunately, in my opinion

 

[surixon]

While I agree completely with your assessment, I do strongly feel that the NHL will throw the teams some sort of life-line to buy their way out of this mess. Something like 2 buyouts over the next 2 years which do NOT count against the current and future cap like it does now.

Jets WOULD have been in a really strong spot - but the others are going to get relief of some sort, unfortunately, in my opinion

There will be no co.plaince buyouts as I believe its been speculated that the owners don't want them as most are loosing money right now. They also impact escrow to the players so they likely don't want them either.

Some teams will be stuck this summer.

 

[Whileee]

While I agree completely with your assessment, I do strongly feel that the NHL will throw the teams some sort of life-line to buy their way out of this mess. Something like 2 buyouts over the next 2 years which do NOT count against the current and future cap like it does now.

Jets WOULD have been in a really strong spot - but the others are going to get relief of some sort, unfortunately, in my opinion

I don't think the NHLPA will agree to additional "compliance" buyouts. Teams can already but out players to save money and cap space, they just can't do it to completely wipe away cap hits.

Also, poorer teams would be hurt by that, because richer teams could just buy out their expensive contracts and then go after other free agents, instead, while poorer teams will have limited budgets to compete. There are likely to be a lot of teams that are going to have to operate below the cap in the next few years.

 

[Adam da bomb]

So hopefully that means someone will have to sell us a good 2c cheaply.

 

[Gm0ney]

Escrow is going to be 50%+. An $81.5M cap assumes, what, around $4.3B in HRR? I don't see revenues recovering to anywhere near that for the remainder of this season (if there is one) or next season. Maybe it starts to come back in 2021-22 maybe - but we'll see how fast things rebound.

Ticket sales probably make up about half of HRR, so until that revenue stream is back online, they're f***ed. When does individual and corporate discretionary spending on this stuff rebound, assuming we can start filling arenas again by the start of the 2021-22 season? Corporate sponsorships will be down, merch sales will be down, the only "guarantee" is TV deals - and they don't get to cash those cheques if they don't play...which is why there's such a big push to get back at it and finish 2019-20.

I think people are whistling past the graveyard if they think it's going to be anything like business as usual coming out the other side of this pandemic...

 

[cbcwpg]

I'm assuming the cap staying flat for the next 3 seasons is the NHL assuming they will actually get fans watching games starting next season... because without fans, there is no way the cap stays where it is , unless a huge % of player salary ends up in escrow.

 

[Whileee]

Still won't be any super cheap 2C options, but if Little doesn't come back the Jets are going to have a lot of flexibility to strengthen their roster and get some good, long-term stability of they play it right.

Laine is the big question mark. He might decide not to sign any long term deals and instead focus on getting to UFA as soon as possible, like Trouba. In that case, I think he becomes a prime candidate for a trade.

But he might instead decide to lock in long term now to avoid financial uncertainty, and that could give the Jets a talented core for the long term.

I might be a bit pessimistic, but I think Laine might angle for shorter commitments and earlier UFA and "bet on himself". For that reason, he seems to me to be the most likely "core" player to be traded in a blockbuster move in the next year or two. I think the Jets should try to hammer out a long term deal with Laine this summer, and if it's clear he's not inclined to sign something reasonable, I'd look to trade him in the next year or so for a good young C and futures.

 

[Flair Hay]

Still won't be any super cheap 2C options, but if Little doesn't come back the Jets are going to have a lot of flexibility to strengthen their roster and get some good, long-term stability of they play it right.

Laine is the big question mark. He might decide not to sign any long term deals and instead focus on getting to UFA as soon as possible, like Trouba. In that case, I think he becomes a prime candidate for a trade.

But he might instead decide to lock in long term now to avoid financial uncertainty, and that could give the Jets a talented core for the long term.

I might be a bit pessimistic, but I think Laine might angle for shorter commitments and earlier UFA and "bet on himself". For that reason, he seems to me to be the most likely "core" player to be traded in a blockbuster move in the next year or two. I think the Jets should try to hammer out a long term deal with Laine this summer, and if it's clear he's not inclined to sign something reasonable, I'd look to trade him in the next year or so for a good young C and futures.

I agree with pretty much all of this.

Jets may be in a position to capitalize on the flexibility created by some recent misfortunes.

 

[Weezeric]

Still won't be any super cheap 2C options, but if Little doesn't come back the Jets are going to have a lot of flexibility to strengthen their roster and get some good, long-term stability of they play it right.

Laine is the big question mark. He might decide not to sign any long term deals and instead focus on getting to UFA as soon as possible, like Trouba. In that case, I think he becomes a prime candidate for a trade.

But he might instead decide to lock in long term now to avoid financial uncertainty, and that could give the Jets a talented core for the long term.

I might be a bit pessimistic, but I think Laine might angle for shorter commitments and earlier UFA and "bet on himself". For that reason, he seems to me to be the most likely "core" player to be traded in a blockbuster move in the next year or two. I think the Jets should try to hammer out a long term deal with Laine this summer, and if it's clear he's not inclined to sign something reasonable, I'd look to trade him in the next year or so for a good young C and futures.

If Laine does force a trade, I wonder if Buffalo might trade Cozens and their first rounder this year if they’re looking to make a splash. There would have to be more to the deal but Eichel and Laine would be awesome together.

 

[surixon]

The Jets will still be in a strong position to offer Lane a good deal next off-season even with a flat cap so i don't see it being an issue to reup him barring the fact he wants out.

 

[Hunter368]

Still won't be any super cheap 2C options, but if Little doesn't come back the Jets are going to have a lot of flexibility to strengthen their roster and get some good, long-term stability of they play it right.

Laine is the big question mark. He might decide not to sign any long term deals and instead focus on getting to UFA as soon as possible, like Trouba. In that case, I think he becomes a prime candidate for a trade.

But he might instead decide to lock in long term now to avoid financial uncertainty, and that could give the Jets a talented core for the long term.

I might be a bit pessimistic, but I think Laine might angle for shorter commitments and earlier UFA and "bet on himself". For that reason, he seems to me to be the most likely "core" player to be traded in a blockbuster move in the next year or two. I think the Jets should try to hammer out a long term deal with Laine this summer, and if it's clear he's not inclined to sign something reasonable, I'd look to trade him in the next year or so for a good young C and futures.

Agreed. I understand why Chevy handles Trouba the way he did and wouldn’t trade him until his last year of team control.....Trouba was exactly what we didn’t have and needed.....no one was going to trade a Trouba clone for Trouba. Very different with Laine, Laine is just more of what we already have aka good wingers. Laine can be replaced or more so Laine’s value can be replaced with another winger or centre or even a D. Chevy has much more flexibility trading Laine, if he refuses to sign long term at a fair cap hit then trade him out of here ASAP......we eventually need a good replacement for Mark S......so a good young centre would be ideal.

 

[Whileee]

The Jets will still be in a strong position to offer Lane a good deal next off-season even with a flat cap so i don't see it being an issue to reup him barring the fact he wants out.

The Jets can pay him fair market value in the current cap climate, but he might decide to wait and angle to sign a long term deal after the current crunch. The situation becomes more and more risky for the Jets if Laine gets closer to UFA.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Escrow is going to be 50%+. An $81.5M cap assumes, what, around $4.3B in HRR? I don't see revenues recovering to anywhere near that for the remainder of this season (if there is one) or next season. Maybe it starts to come back in 2021-22 maybe - but we'll see how fast things rebound.

Ticket sales probably make up about half of HRR, so until that revenue stream is back online, they're f***ed. When does individual and corporate discretionary spending on this stuff rebound, assuming we can start filling arenas again by the start of the 2021-22 season? Corporate sponsorships will be down, merch sales will be down, the only "guarantee" is TV deals - and they don't get to cash those cheques if they don't play...which is why there's such a big push to get back at it and finish 2019-20.

I think people are whistling past the graveyard if they think it's going to be anything like business as usual coming out the other side of this pandemic...

Mass audience events are f***ed until there is a vaccine.

OTOH, TV rights might go up in value. People staying at home to watch.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'm assuming the cap staying flat for the next 3 seasons is the NHL assuming they will actually get fans watching games starting next season... because without fans, there is no way the cap stays where it is , unless a huge % of player salary ends up in escrow.

They can potentially set the cap at any number and adjust the actual cost through escrow. Leaving it at the same number as this year seems like an obvious choice. But I can't see escrow being less than 50% for next year unless the start of the season is delayed until about January. The hope might be that there is a vaccine by then.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The Jets can pay him fair market value in the current cap climate, but he might decide to wait and angle to sign a long term deal after the current crunch. The situation becomes more and more risky for the Jets if Laine gets closer to UFA.

But the situation also gets more and more risky for Laine if the pandemic continues. He is still an RFA for 2 years after his current deal expires so there is no need to rush. If there is difficulty getting a long term deal next summer, it will be time to look at trades. In the meantime, it could happen if the right offer came along, the same as it is for any player.

 

[Jets 31]

The one thing about trading Laine is Wheeler isn't getting any younger . I agree we need a center but i'd be trying to move Wheeler and his 8 million dollar salary waaaay before Laine.

 

[Gm0ney]

Mass audience events are f***ed until there is a vaccine.

OTOH, TV rights might go up in value. People staying at home to watch.

The NHL relies on the gate for more of it's revenues than any other big league sport (NFL, MLB and NBA all have much larger TV deals). And they're locked into the Sportsnet deal in Canada for another 6 seasons I believe. The US deal is up after this season though...currently $200M/year...but best-case for a new deal is maybe 3x that = $600M/year? Still relatively small potatoes...an extra maybe $7M in cap space per team (if other revenues don't change).

 

[barrywpg]

Mass audience events are f***ed until there is a vaccine.

OTOH, TV rights might go up in value. People staying at home to watch.

The fly in the ointment here is that TV rights depend on advertising revenue.
Way the economy is going a lot of companies won,t have the money for advertising, or might feel their customers don't have the money to pay for their products.
Maybe pay per view will be the way for teams to go.
But as gmmoney just said, NHL is locked in for quite a while

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The fly in the ointment here is that TV rights depend on advertising revenue.
Way the economy is going a lot of companies won,t have the money for advertising, or might feel their customers don't have the money to pay for their products.
Maybe pay per view will be the way for teams to go.
But as gmmoney just said, NHL is locked in for quite a while

Yup. So, like I said ......... events that rely on mass (live) audiences are f***ed.

 

[voyageur]

The NHL relies on the gate for more of it's revenues than any other big league sport (NFL, MLB and NBA all have much larger TV deals). And they're locked into the Sportsnet deal in Canada for another 6 seasons I believe. The US deal is up after this season though...currently $200M/year...but best-case for a new deal is maybe 3x that = $600M/year? Still relatively small potatoes...an extra maybe $7M in cap space per team (if other revenues don't change).

The other kicker is that Fox Sports gets its broadcasts for free next year, if this season is cancelled. That's money that small US markets, that need playoff revenue for profit as is, will find greater margins between the rich and poor of the NHL.

 

[lanky]

i'd be trying to move Wheeler and his 8 million dollar salary waaaay before Laine.

That ship has sailed.