Salary Cap: Cap Casualties

[Kurtosis]

no way the CAT gets 9 mil. He is a PP goal scorer who is a RFA. he was 33rd in pts. and is not good on D. 7 mil seems about right.

This is a pretty terrible take.

 

[piteus]

In 2020-2021, I suspect we'll have at ~$24-25mn in cap space with the assumption the salary cap is set at $83-$84mn ... and Anisimov is traded and his $4.55mn per. These are the players who are under guaranteed deals under that scenario:

1	Patrick Kane	RW	31	$10,500,000
2	Jonathan Toews	C	32	$10,500,000
3	Brandon Saad	LW	27	$6,000,000
4	Andrew Shaw	C	29	$3,900,000
5	Ryan Carpenter	C	29	$1,000,000
6	David Kampf	C	25	$1,000,000

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

1	Brent Seabrook	D	35	$6,875,000
2	Duncan Keith	D	37	$5,538,462
3	Calvin de Haan	D	29	$4,550,000
4	Olli Maatta	D	26	$4,083,333
5	Connor Murphy	D	27	$3,850,000
6	Carl Dahlstrom	D	25	$850,000

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

1

Collin Delia

G

26

$1,000,000

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

We'll need to save cap space to re sign RFAs Cat and Strome. I'm going to allow for allow for $15mn combined ($9mn for Cat / $6mn for Strome).

That leaves us ~$10mn ...

Let's say Lehner costs us $6mn per after a good season. It leaves us $4mn for the rest of the roster.

* Gus
* Perlini (~$1.5mn)
* Cagguila (~$2mn)
* Joker
* Boqvist
* Kubliak
* Sikura
* Dach
* etc.

IMO, Maatta, de Haan, or Murphy will be traded in the summer of 2020. In fact, if we buyout Maatta, we can save $3.5mn in the Cap. That would give us about $7.5mn. And can''t Dahlstrom or Delia's contract be buried in the minors if necessary which would save another $1mn ... hence, have a cap space of $8.5mn.

For the 2020-2021 season, we can keep Perlini, Kubliak, Cagguila, Dach, Sikura, Joker, etc. and be fine. With the extensions of Cat and Strome, we'll need to find 4 more forwards.

The key question comes down to Gus. What do we do with him? If he costs $5-$6mn per in an extension ... do we trade another DMen? Murphy or de Haan? Or do we just trade him because we feel Boqvist is the answer as an offensive DMen. This is why cheap young talented draftees are important in rounding out a roster.

Note: I did not assume Seabrook's cap hit coming off the books. I'm hoping for a compliance buyout a year after in the summer of 2021. If that $6.8mn opens up, it will gives the Hawks even more cap flexibility to re sign our youngsters coming off their ELC, RFA contracts, Saad, etc.

This is why I believe the Hawks are in good shape with their salary cap going forward. The biggest question is what to do with Gus before the TDL next winter. Anisimov MUST be traded by TDL or at the very least summer 2020 (preferably sooner).

 

[kmwtrucks]

find me a far comp for a wing coming off his ELC that is a avg 2 way player. Aho is a center which probably adds 1 mil and has outscored Cat by 20 pts over 2 years and was a +26 last year Cat was a 0 last year. 7 Mil would put him in the top 3 wings ever paid after there ELC. 7mil seems about right. Pirri can score goals but he is not even in the league I know Cat is better but centers get a lot more then wings and guys that can do more then score get more as well.

 

[LordKOTL]

Over the past 2 seasons Debrincat is 12th in EVG and 15th in total goals. At this point he's one of the few guys on the team that can dent the twine at will--a proven finisher and at some point someone has to put the puck in the net.

If he continues that this coming season I think 8+ is not out of the question--he's already in the top-tier of goal scorers.

 

[AmericanDream]

find me a far comp for a wing coming off his ELC that is a avg 2 way player. Aho is a center which probably adds 1 mil and has outscored Cat by 20 pts over 2 years and was a +26 last year Cat was a 0 last year. 7 Mil would put him in the top 3 wings ever paid after there ELC. 7mil seems about right. Pirri can score goals but he is not even in the league I know Cat is better but centers get a lot more then wings and guys that can do more then score get more as well.

find me a comp of a 21 year old winger/center that has 70 goals in 160 games the past 2 years...I will wait and lmk what his contract is or will be...

 

[RayP]

find me a far comp for a wing coming off his ELC that is a avg 2 way player. Aho is a center which probably adds 1 mil and has outscored Cat by 20 pts over 2 years and was a +26 last year Cat was a 0 last year. 7 Mil would put him in the top 3 wings ever paid after there ELC. 7mil seems about right. Pirri can score goals but he is not even in the league I know Cat is better but centers get a lot more then wings and guys that can do more then score get more as well.

Did you just bring up.... Pirri?


Lmao

 

[b1e9a8r5s]

I have seen several mentions of buying out Matta. Is that actually a realistic expectation or just speculation buy posters?

 

[AmericanDream]

Did you just bring up.... Pirri?


Lmao

at least he could have went with Timo Meier who scored 20 less goals and still makes $6 mil as a winger - and though he does play a more complete game, he is not a Selke candidate by any means..

Timo Meier - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

this isn't even going to touch the floor for Cat IMO...

 

[BK]

I have seen several mentions of buying out Matta. Is that actually a realistic expectation or just speculation by posters?

Bold.

 

[AmericanDream]

I have seen several mentions of buying out Matta. Is that actually a realistic expectation or just speculation buy posters?

I would say a just in case option - his buyout is pennies if we need to move someone - we will see how he performs but I think the point is his contract is the easiest to move from hence why there is no cap hell here..

 

[jaysoneil]

Crow will either be LTIR, retired or sign a cheap ass year to year contract to be backup for the franchise that's stood behind him through all the criticism. Crawford as a backup would be awesome.

AA is gone, possibly this year.

Maatta and DH aren't long term fixes. They're a stop gap. Traded and replaced by prospects.

Gus is trade bait, especially after he puts up 60pts again this year (hot take) with improved defense play (because of team play).

Not worried.

 

[CallMeShaft]

What I'd like to see happen by October 2020:
-Cat re-signed for under $8m for 7-8 years
-Strome re-signed for around $6m for 5 years
-Gus re-signed for $5-6m per for 4-6 years
-Lehner re-signed for $5-6m for 6 years


Trade AA by the start of this season and move out both Murphy and Saad by October 2020. Hawks will then be able to re-sign the players listed above and make the cap work with an expected cap ceiling of $83m. Of course, a guy like Kubalik who will be an RFA in a year wouldn't be able to be re-signed unless it was dirt cheap, but we could just sell his rights at that point. If we need more cap room, trade Gus instead of Murphy.

We replace those traded away with guys like Dach, Kurashev, Barratt, Boqvist, and Mitchell.

 

[kmwtrucks]

there are only 6 LW and 8 RW in the whole league that make over 7 mil. the only ones that signed there deal off a ELC is tarasenko. the only one that signed over 7mil as a RFA was Kuckerov. in his last year as a RFA.

Browse - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps, of the guys that

 

[hawksfan50]

No way we extend Saad at More than his current co tract..so he hone for picks next season with 1 yr remai ing Then..So that is $6 mil more I the cap kitty. Aa gone this season.. Crow gone next season..

Murphy gone next season....so many RS dmen coming for spots.

So no problems.. Do not worrycaboutvtye cao .

Of course if Kubalok scores 109 points.. maybe the wd hits big problem. EVEN 1 season at 70 points still they probably get hom for a $5.5 bridge andvorovebitvextention.


I would not worry .

And after next season.. no more Keith and Seabs via CBOs..so we be fine for 2021/21 season .

THEN huge rise in cap for 2023/24 due to the 2022 new tv deal which will get counted in HRR tgat season and cause the cap to rise a lot in 23/24 season..so no worries then either..

The worry could be 2022/23 (last year for Toews and Kane) but if DACH plays over 9 games this season then his ELC over and needs extention for 2022/23..

So Dyan has to be mindful of planning forvtgat..If Fach too successful then huge extention will be sought.


So I think 20/21 season is not as worrisome as 2022/23 could be if Stan let's cap get too tight then even if Seabs and Keith gone by summer 2021 ...

But by 2023/24 ..Toews and Kane will extend as geezers at a reduced level from their current $10.5s..say $7.0 m for 3yrs each ..That is more cap savings on top of the big rise due to the new TV deal affecting cap rise.


So to me the choke point is more likely 2022/23 if the cap rises too slowly till after that season and if Dach becomes "all he could be" according to Stan and Kelkey's ceiling g projections.

 

[Rolo]

AA out
Murphy out
Saad out
Gus walks/traded @ deadline
Crawford retires


Kubalik - Toews - Kane
Debrincat - Strome - Shaw
Caggiula - Dach - Sikura
Perlini - Kampf - Kurashev

Maatta - Jokiharju
Keith - Seabrook
de Haan - Boqvist/Mitchell
Dahlstrom

Lehner
Delia

Not to mention Saad/Murphy could bring back a cheap player who can play in the top 9.

Also Cat probably gets 8-8.5

 

[piteus]

I have seen several mentions of buying out Matta. Is that actually a realistic expectation or just speculation buy posters?

Just an option. It would be in the vicinity of $680K or less for a number of years. That's why the risk / reward on the Maatta trade made sense. There is an reasonable exit option if Maatta is bad.

 

[Hawkey]

at least he could have went with Timo Meier who scored 20 less goals and still makes $6 mil as a winger - and though he does play a more complete game, he is not a Selke candidate by any means..

Timo Meier - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

this isn't even going to touch the floor for Cat IMO...

With Meiers contract I don’t think Cat can ask for much more than 6 if he’s looking for a similar term. Meiers hasn’t scored like Cat but his size and power makes him a lot more than just goals.

They’re different wingers but they are pretty close to equal when you look at the total package of each.

5 yrs x 7 mil or 4x6 is where he should be.

 

[migi]

We are not even close to cap hell.

 

[hockeydoug]

I don't think it's going to be a matter of cap "casualties" as much as it will be roster decisions.
They aren't near a spot where they have to downgrade the roster for cap considerations.

 

[AmericanDream]

With Meiers contract I don’t think Cat can ask for much more than 6 if he’s looking for a similar term. Meiers hasn’t scored like Cat but his size and power makes him a lot more than just goals.

They’re different wingers but they are pretty close to equal when you look at the total package of each.

5 yrs x 7 mil or 4x6 is where he should be.

contracts still come down to goals and points, unless you are a selke winner nobody gives a shit about your size and will pay you more because you are a bigger player that has produced less- that makes no sense..Cat will get more than Meier, though I hope and pray you are right and he takes something close to this..

 

[kmwtrucks]

contracts still come down to goals and points, unless you are a selke winner nobody gives a **** about your size and will pay you more because you are a bigger player that has produced less- that makes no sense..Cat will get more than Meier, though I hope and pray you are right and he takes something close to this..

I'm not sure I agree with that. if people only cared about scoring goals then Cat would not have lasted until pick 39. all teams value size and speed and the ability to be physical and to play a 2 -way game. Cat has a great release but he is always going to be limited and what he can bring in a playoff series and on the Def side. is there any team that would offer sheet Cat at $8 mil? never. Because if he ever drops to 30 goals per year he is only worth 5mil. guys that score goals from the wing but are not 2 way players are available all the time. compared to centers or 2 way wingers. Look at Hoffman? he is a goal scoring winger and he does not carry much value.

 

[AmericanDream]

I'm not sure I agree with that. if people only cared about scoring goals then Cat would not have lasted until pick 39. all teams value size and speed and the ability to be physical and to play a 2 -way game. Cat has a great release but he is always going to be limited and what he can bring in a playoff series and on the Def side. is there any team that would offer sheet Cat at $8 mil? never. Because if he ever drops to 30 goals per year he is only worth 5mil. guys that score goals from the wing but are not 2 way players are available all the time. compared to centers or 2 way wingers. Look at Hoffman? he is a goal scoring winger and he does not carry much value.

don't confuse the draft and a player getting a contract - nobody gets a contract handed out based off of their size- it means nothing..show me a contract that was given out to a player was bigger than someone else with equal stats and made far more...

 

[ColdSteel2]

I’d rather have a competitive team this year than a boat load of cap space for nothing. Cap hell is always overblown and we have plenty of guys we can trade to shed salary next summer. I’m pretty sure 90% of the people here know where we stand but until we see the number for Strome and Cat who really cares. I’m just excited for this upcoming season.

I’m excited for it too. It’s been so long since this team had a realistic chance at making the playoffs. I just really hope we don’t lose players like Saad, Gustafsson, Lehner and Kubalik to keep players like de Haan, Maatta, Shaw and Anisimov. That hurts the current team and the future. It is what it is now, just wish Bowman would have went after some players with 1 year deals to go on this run for a playoff spot. Main point now is just for everyone to enjoy the team we have while we have them together. Go Hawks.