GDT: Canes at Avs: Duchene Hattrick Incoming

[SaskCanesFan]

"I shouldn't have singled out scouting, but I'm going to go ahead and do that once more, furthering what is clearly a lack of basic understanding about the expectations that can be reasonably applied to drafting 18-year-old kids."

I lack a basic understanding of what exactly? Find me another team where you can say that the two picks after their own produced at least one better player every single year for 4 straight drafts. Not somebody 10 or 20 spots later that exceeded expectations, and not once in a while.

 

[SaskCanesFan]

That's not what I was saying. You posted the line-up that included Aho, Skinner, Rask, Slavin, Pesce, Faulk along with the draft re-dos you did, which is the fallacy with hindsight. I'm not talking about going off the board, but if everybody has hindsight, then there is no way Skinner is there at #7 for the Canes, or that Aho is there in the 2nd round, or Slavin in the 4th, etc...so your line-up is unrealistic, in hindsight, even if the specific examples you gave were attainable. Also, you don't know where the Canes would have finished in subsequent years had they drafted those other players in prior years.

You say your not talking about going off the board, but you mention Aho, Pesce and Slavin. All of those would be examples of off the board picks for other teams to make early. None of them had any noise pre draft to go higher than where they did, they were all picked in their projected range and exceeded expectations. To say Slavin would have gone much higher in hindsight is obvious, but it's the exact situation I said I'm not talking about. Nobody saw him coming, nobody would have drafted him anywhere near round 1 that day. Which is why I'm not complaining about the Canes missing a guy like Brayden Point. It's not fair or realistic to expect anybody to have decided to grab him in the 1st.

Contrast that to the situation i am talking about, let's say 2014 for example. Nobody would have batted an eye if the Canes picked Nylander. He was projected to go right in the range of the Canes pick by pretty much every single scouting agency there was. It's fair to say that if another team would have had that pick, they might have picked Nylander or Ehlers there, so it's fair to criticise the Canes for missing those 2.

Every first round pick the Canes have had, there's been 3-5 guys that are "expected" to be drafted in that range. Even 2015, there were people that had Provorov and Werenski higher than Hanifin. Drafting one of them would have been unexpected, but not crazy. There are teams that would have done it. Drafting Brandon Carlo there, yeah that would have been crazy. When guys past that "expected range" turn out better than your pick, meh. It happens, scouting is inexact. But when it's consistently guys in that range that turn out better, that's a problem. Period.

 

[Joe McGrath]

Fluery and Lindholm arguments I’m fine with. Better players got picked immediately following the selection and the rankings on those guys were right in line. Hanifin is a completely different story. Very few scouting services or talking heads (Craig Button namely) had Hanifin outside the top 5 or as anything but the top ranked defenseman. There were people that said things like Provorov/Werenski might wind up being the best defenseman in this draft, but that didn’t mean they thought they were the better prospect.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

You say your not talking about going off the board, but you mention Aho, Pesce and Slavin. All of those would be examples of off the board picks for other teams to make early. None of them had any noise pre draft to go higher than where they did, they were all picked in their projected range and exceeded expectations. To say Slavin would have gone much higher in hindsight is obvious, but it's the exact situation I said I'm not talking about. Nobody saw him coming, nobody would have drafted him anywhere near round 1 that day.

You continue to miss the point completely. I am not talking about drafting Aho or Slavin with the 5th overall pick, I'm saying 1) you are looking at hindsight, and in hindsight, when the Canes got to the 2nd or 3rd or 4th round, those guys would no longer be there, yet you conveniently add them to your "in hindsight" roster. And 2) If the Canes were to draft Monahan and Nylander, then you have no idea if they would have even been in position to draft Hanifin or Bean. You want your cake and you want to eat it too. That's the problem with any of these "hindsight" rosters.

Contrast that to the situation i am talking about, let's say 2014 for example. Nobody would have batted an eye if the Canes picked Nylander. He was projected to go right in the range of the Canes pick by pretty much every single scouting agency there was. It's fair to say that if another team would have had that pick, they might have picked Nylander or Ehlers there, so it's fair to criticise the Canes for missing those 2.

I'm fine with you criticizing the pick, in fact, I even said that looks like a miss. I have zero disagreement with criticizing that pick. If you want to criticize the Lindholm pick, that's fine too, although I think there if Lindy keeps developing like he has, there will be less cause for that criticism so time will tell. What I disagreed with was you conveniently using hindsight to create an optimal roster while ignoring hindsight when it doesn't fit your narrative. Although I completely disagree with you already claiming a verdict on Hanifin and Bean. In the end, they may end up being worse than players selected after them, but, particularly with a defenseman, that jury is a ways out yet IMO.

Every first round pick the Canes have had, there's been 3-5 guys that are "expected" to be drafted in that range. Even 2015, there were people that had Provorov and Werenski higher than Hanifin. Drafting one of them would have been unexpected, but not crazy..

Now that's some major hindsight. People on this board would have been non-linear if the Canes passed on Hanifin. While it wouldn't have been "crazy", there would have been a meltdown. I specifically remember after Marner was selected by Toronto, posters on this board say things like "now don't screw it up Ronnie, go up and take Hanifin". And while there may have been a 1 or 2 with those guys above Hanifin, it was a minority by far and pretty much only Button, who frequently is different. Just for reference though, here are the final rankings of the major outlets/scouting services. Every single one except Button had Hanifin above both of them.

McKenzie (which is really a poll of NHL scouts): Hanifin 3; Provorov 8; Werenski 11 So NHL scouts had Hanifin quite a bit higher than both of those guys.
ISS: Hanifin 5, Provorov 7, Werenski 11
Hockey Prospects: Hanifin 5, Provorov 7, Werenski 10
Future Considerations: Hanifin 3, Provorov 6, Werenski 7
Sportsnet Damien Cox: Hanifin 4, Provorov 6, Werenski 10
McKeens: Hanifin 3, Provorov 5, Werenski 9
Button: Provorov 5, Werenski 7, Hanifin 11
THW: Hanifin 5, Provorov 9, Werenski 12
ESPN (Pronmann): Hanifin 5, Werenski 8, Provorov 14
THN: Hanifin 3, Provorov 6; Werenski 9
NHL CSS: Hanifin 3, Provorov 7, Werenski 9

 

[dogbazinho]

It would seem the Canes pick players where they generally are rated but for whatever reason we rarely seem to get a player in the 1st round that surpasses expectation. Skinner not with standing. Is it fair to not question the drafting then and say it's a development issue? Rushing players?

 

[geehaad]

It would seem the Canes pick players where they generally are rated but for whatever reason we rarely seem to get a player in the 1st round that surpasses expectation. Skinner not with standing. Is it fair to not question the drafting then and say it's a development issue? Rushing players?

Wouldn't it be more accurate to say that Skinner was their one, that many franchises don't have even one, and others might have as many as two?

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

It would seem the Canes pick players where they generally are rated but for whatever reason we rarely seem to get a player in the 1st round that surpasses expectation. Skinner not with standing. Is it fair to not question the drafting then and say it's a development issue? Rushing players?

It's very fair to question why the Canes haven't gotten the best value out of their 1st rounders, although declaring that on guys like Hanifin, Bean or Necas is very premature IMO.

Since Cam Ward's draft, I see 4 guys who met / exceeded expectations (Green), 3 guys who were downright busts (RED), 3 guys who were / are good NHL players, just didn't meet/exceed expectations for where they were drafted (Blue), and 4 guys where the jury is still out.

2002: Ward = Met / Exceeds expectations
2003: Staal = Met / Exceeds expectations
2004: Ladd = Met / Exceeds expectations, just the Canes gave up on him
2005: Johnson = Turned into a very good defensemen, just not with Carolina and wasn't the "beast" people expected him to be.
2006: No pick
2007: Sutter = A bit of a disappointment.
2008: Boychuk. Clearly didn't meet or exceed expectations
2009: Paradis. Clearly didn't meet or exceed expectations
2010: Skinner = Met / Exceeded expectations
2011: Murphy. Clearly didn't. Took a chance on a small, high skill guy and whiffed.
2012: No 1st rounder
2013: Lindholm = Hasn't yet met/exceeded expectations, but is still improving.
2014: Fleury = He's 12 games into his NHL career. Kind of hard to say he hasn't met expectations yet. I think the early success of Nylander / Ehlers has put a negative light on Fleury.
2015: Hanifin = He's only 20 years old so too early to say he won't meet expecations.
2016: Bean = way to early to tell
2017: Necas = Way too early to tell

 

[geehaad]

I lack a basic understanding of what exactly?

Of reasonable expectations that can be placed on drafting 18-year-old kids. What's reasonable is that the player turns out to be a contributor in the NHL. What's reasonable is that occasionally you get some big wins. What's reasonable is that you suffer few big losses. You're talking about evaluating 18-year-olds as if it is akin to an exact science, and it is far from that.

I get your take because I'm a critic too, and that's why I'm being critical of your take on this. You aren't getting anyone here to agree with your assessment that the current incarnation of the Hurricanes' scouting dept is a problem, and certainly not one worthy of needing a fix.

 

[bleedgreen]

Provorov had become a bit like Skinner. Late riser in the end, with him blowing it up in the playoffs. There was a lot of groundswell about Provorov in the weeks immediately before the draft with Button flat out saying he was better than Hanifin - but everyone thinks that guy is a kook. I thought Provorov could be better but it didn't matter because they were both amazing. Hanifin is still the real deal, and he's ours. Just about every team would've taken Hanifin, and most fans still want him in trades for top end forwards. He looks good this year. We forgive Faulk for all his derps for years, I think we can give Hanifin a little slack and just enjoy the ride.


Ps - Sutter was a disappointment?!? I loved that dude. As platonically as one man can love another...naturally.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Ps - Sutter was a disappointment?!? I loved that dude. As platonically as one man can love another...naturally.

Disappointment was probably too strong of a word. After is first full nhl season where he scored 21G, 40 points, I really expected him to take it to another level and he never did, but he is a serviceable NHLr which is what you hope to get in the middle of the 1st round of a rather weak draft. Still, he's a 15G, 30 point player who has a someone inflated reputation for his defensive play.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Ps - Sutter was a disappointment?!?

Not a disappointment relative to his draft status. He's had an ordinary career for a #11OA.

Disappointment relative to his early career, yes. He scored 40 points his sophomore year and hasn't hit 35 since then. If he could have been consistently in that 40 point range, with great defense and little-to-no PIM, he would be one of the great utility players in the league. Instead he's utterly forgettable wherever he goes, because he's basically just McClement Plus these days.

 

[bleedgreen]

Well obviously he dropped off after leaving us.

I do remember him being sad to be leaving. I think he would've gotten back to 40 pts plus had he stayed. He made a good Cane.

 

[tarheelhockey]

I do think he was a better fit here than anywhere else. He was a real Paul Maurice player, and for that matter a Bill Peters player too. And he would probably be our best offensive option at center right now...

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I do think he was a better fit here than anywhere else. He was a real Paul Maurice player, and for that matter a Bill Peters player too. And he would probably be our best offensive option at center right now...

He's not, nor has he ever been as good as Jordan Staal offensively. Sutter could score with a wrist shot off the rush, which is why I often thought he'd be a better winger than he would a center, but it's obvious coaches, who know more than I do, didn't agree (although I think he's played some wing in Vancouver last year). He may have better hands than Jordan, but he's not better offensively.

 

[tarheelhockey]

He's not, nor has he ever been as good as Jordan Staal offensively. Sutter could score with a wrist shot off the rush, which is why I often thought he'd be a better winger than he would a center, but it's obvious coaches, who know more than I do, didn't agree (although I think he's played some wing in Vancouver last year). He may have better hands than Jordan, but he's not better offensively.

I agree, but at the same time I have a feeling Sutter would look A LOT better doing something like centering a PP line. Jordan has the ability to generate points across the full course of a game, but is totally worthless when put in an exclusively offensive situation. At least Sutter has the shot.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I agree, but at the same time I have a feeling Sutter would look A LOT better doing something like centering a PP line. Jordan has the ability to generate points across the full course of a game, but is totally worthless when put in an exclusively offensive situation. At least Sutter has the shot.

I'm not so sure. What Jordan lacks in hands, he makes up for in other ways. His strength, ability to not be knocked off the puck, etc.. Sutter has put up 20G, 40 points once in his NHL career and is a 16G, 32P player for his career where-as Jordan is a 20G, 47 point player for his career. He as put up 20G in 5 of his 11 NHL seasons and put up 40+ points in 7 of those 11 (and had 3 more seasons that he was on pace for > 40). We can argue about skill, but when it comes to results, the two really aren't that close at all.

Sutter got 2:34 / game PP time last season vs. Jordan getting 2:15 / game and they both had 8 PP points total.

 

[bleedgreen]

Agree with Sutter on the wings. He had an obvious winger game. Good forechecker, skated fast in straight lines, quick shot off the wing and not a particularly creative passer. That's a wing.

I never found him that smart defensively either. He was willing to do the work and his last name was Sutter, so auto defensive center.

 

[RodTheBawd]

I know 2 chicks that worked at Hibernian that had relations with BSutts... that's the only contribution I have.

 

[the halleJOKEL]

ive heard some wild stories about chad from people who work downtown

he was a crazy dude

 

[AD Skinner]

Straight line guy, plays hard down low, keeps short shifts

 

[the halleJOKEL]

straight line guy indeed

 

[Surrounded By Ahos]

straight line guy indeed

 

[Joe McGrath]

I agree, but at the same time I have a feeling Sutter would look A LOT better doing something like centering a PP line. Jordan has the ability to generate points across the full course of a game, but is totally worthless when put in an exclusively offensive situation. At least Sutter has the shot.

The 2nd leading goal scorer on the team is totally worthless whennput in an exclusively offensive situation? Well that sure does explain a lot.

 

[tarheelhockey]

The 2nd leading goal scorer on the team is totally worthless whennput in an exclusively offensive situation? Well that sure does explain a lot.

Pretty much, yeah. Who’s our next best goal scorer after that?

 

[Joe McGrath]

Pretty much, yeah. Who’s our next best goal scorer after that?

Rask, Lindholm, and TT w/ 3.