Can Canada maintain 45-50% of the NHL?

[Mulletman]

What people seem to forget is that Canada is losing most of it's high end hockey genes with the NHL. With most of the teams in the US, most Canadians will play there too. And then they will meet some american hotty and settle down in the US. And because of that the next generation will play for the US. It's only a matter of time before the US becomes the dominant hockey nation in the world! Plus it doesn't help that Canada has changed a lot in the last few years because of a certain someone...

 

[Dominance]

No.

Can't compare the two. not having a world wide transfer market where players are exchanged for cash means that we will never have to lose players outside of the nhl.

The issue with English teams is that their scouting and development is lightyears behind. They rely on a strong currency (or your name is Abramovich) to be able to purchase players from other countries rather then actually bringing youth into their lower development tiers. Wilshere was super hyped and was the most notable "prospect" in an English development system for a long time... he is okay but I wouldn't call him a homerun.

Germany invested billions into their development and youth programs because they got tired of coming in 3rd and 4th in world cups. Now they are the champions and have a lot of really good young players. This is why English national football suffers even though the Prem is a strong league.

Long story short, the NHL is not faced with the challenges of soccer. Canada may decline, but at some point it will bottom out and rise again. As long as we keep producing Gretzky/lemieux/crosby/mcdavid level talents we will dominate in NHL enrollment.

Keep in mind we are also basically a one sport nation (curling is our other major sport).

I agree with everything you’ve said, except for the last statement, which is false. There are exponentially more youth and adult soccer players than there are hockey players, and sports such as baseball, lacrosse, football, and basketball also have very significant followings.

 

[SotasicA]

There's currently 3 Austrians in the league. That's more than ever, I think. With the current trajectory, in about year 3120, the NHL will only have Austrian players. 100% Austrian.
Using simple deductive logic we can see that there is space for 0% Canadian players in the year 3120.

 

[Big Phil]

Hockey Culture is dying in Canada. The country is Changing. American Culture is Changing too. They are playing More Hockey. By 2030 Canada will have 35% of the league. By 2050 it Might Not Even Be a Quarter.

Any reason why you have those stats? We've been hearing since the 1990s that there would be an invasion of European talent and it would be 50% Europeans. It is the same as it was 20 years ago. It is the Americans that have gone up. 2050 is not that long away. You think in 32 years we'll have just a quarter of the NHL?

 

[Newsworthy]

This past season put it at 45% of the NHL being Canadian. 27% American which has been a huge jump in the last decade and I believe the best European country is Sweden at 9%. I remember the late 1990s/early 2000s when the idea was that eventually the NHL is going to be at least half Europeans when all is said and done but the opposite has happened. Euros dropped a bit, as did Canadians, and Americans skyrocketed.

So here is the thing, how much longer can Canada maintain this level of having approximately half of the NHL? Not to mention we still have about half the star players too. Half of the best forwards, half of the best defensemen and half of the best goalies are all still Canadian, but can it stay that way? The U.S. is climbing rather fast.

Looking at the past World Junior medal winners you see a difference. Canada won 5 in a row in the late 2000s. Not bad, and the U.S. was more or less nowhere to be found those years. They won a bronze in 2007 during that time, that's it. But starting in 2010 it has looked like this:

U.S. 6 medals (3 gold, 3 bronze)
Canada 6 medals (2 gold, 3 Silver, 1 bronze).

Granted, Canada still has the edge here. In this decade we have still played in 5 gold medal games to U.S.A.'s 3. We are there more often, but prior to 2010 the U.S. won a total of 5 medals (just one gold in 2004) in 33 years. Now in 9 years a total of 6.

My question is, how can Canada get even better? How can we stay ahead of the curve where we still get half of the best players? How do we win all these tournaments going forward? For what it is worth the U.S. hasn't won a best on best since their only time in 1996. Canada since then has won 5 in 7 tries. In the World Championships the U.S. never does well, even today. And there hasn't been a spike at all in the last decade for them either. They still perform lousy in this tournament while Canada usually gets enough interest from players and has two golds and a silver in the last three tournaments.

All I am saying is, how much longer before Canada loses its grip? Or have we already and is it only a matter of time? Or is there nothing to worry about?

I'M trying to figure out Why is this so important to you?
And do you only care about the men's game or the women's also.
This makes me wonder if all Canadians are this way about the game of hockey. Like this is about national pride or something.
Its just a Sport.
just compare population and you will see why the U.S. shall improve.
Just notice more and more Russians coming over and you'll embrace diversity.
everyone around the World is improving and the game is getting more popular in the US

 

[Big Phil]

I'M trying to figure out Why is this so important to you?
And do you only care about the men's game or the women's also.
This makes me wonder if all Canadians are this way about the game of hockey. Like this is about national pride or something.
Its just a Sport.
just compare population and you will see why the U.S. shall improve.
Just notice more and more Russians coming over and you'll embrace diversity.
everyone around the World is improving and the game is getting more popular in the US

Yes it matters a lot to Canadians. You are asking about whether or not this is about national pride. It is strange you would ask that. Have you not noticed Canadian flags and sweaters worn by almost everyone at international games? It matters to Canadians, just like Americans want to be known for baseball, or even football. National pride isn't a bad thing, you know?

Your comment about Russians is surprising though as they are not part of any surge. If anything Swedes have improved recently. It all goes in cycles but Russians were more prominent in the NHL in the 1990s, I think, than today.

 

[NotProkofievian]

If we want to remain the dominant hockey force, something needs to change with the capture of our athletic talent, and its development.

Every kid should have the opportunity to play the game. We enjoyed our period of dominance when we just had way more registered hockey players than everyone else. This isn't the case any longer, the united states has closed that gap. So we need to do more with the talent that is playing hockey. I think Canada should have its own National training and development program to mimic what the Americans have done. Perhaps an east and west team.

I think development is probably where the biggest returns will be. Based on numbers of registered minor hockey players alone, there's no way Sweden should ever be competitive with Canada. It should be a shame to lose to them. But they manage to be on, or pretty damn close to our level. They're just getting more out of what they have.

 

[SotasicA]

What people seem to forget is that Canada is losing most of it's high end hockey genes with the NHL. With most of the teams in the US, most Canadians will play there too. And then they will meet some american hotty and settle down in the US. And because of that the next generation will play for the US. It's only a matter of time before the US becomes the dominant hockey nation in the world! Plus it doesn't help that Canada has changed a lot in the last few years because of a certain someone...

Hillary?

I also love the theory of the US stealing Canadian genes because American hotties > Canadian uggos.

 

[canuck2010]

It's likely I'm older than most here so indulge me for a moment.

Canadian care so much about hockey because it was ingrained in our culture, in our blood, it was our religion it is what you did in a long cold dark 6 month winter. The arena of every small town was the focal point, the place where families met and socialized, where the kids played. There was one TV channel if you were lucky. Outdoor rinks were everywhere, if you didn't have one of those you played on a pond or the river. No refs, no age groups, everybody just played shinny with friends, older siblings and friends of friends. The only place where that didn't happen were in a couple of the largest cities. Growing up it was a way of life and a way to learn many of life's lessons without the guidance (or interference of adults). The bigger or older you were ensured that you sat closer to the coal stove in the change shack that served as a shelter.

In many places that no longer exists, however apologies to those that still embrace that culture. It has become far more expensive, far more organized and far more demanding of everyones time just driving to and fro. In many places because of global warming it's not worth the effort of outdoor ice. There are so many other activities today and many that cost far less. Like most things today hockey has become a commodity and in Canada it is losing its soul and raison d'etre.

All of that being said there is still a core interest, Canada will still love the game, perhaps in a different way but will still continue to produce its share of great players.

 

[Bixby Snyder]

Canada has changed a lot in the last few years because of a certain someone...

Justin Bieber?

 

[Sol]

Canada has immense exposure to hockey. Unless other country matches that then it will remain about the same.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Canada will always reign in player share

 

[thepuckmonster]

Using simple logic it was fairly predictable that a country with legitimately 10x the population of Canada would start producing more elite players.

Aside from the already addressed affordability issues with hockey, the main difference between the US and Canada regarding hockey is popularity. I don’t think most Americans understand how huge the culture of hockey is in Canada. It’s like college basketball combined with football. Until some other sport can manage to have that level of influence on the entire country, hockey in Canada will continue to produce the highest talent.

Crosby, McDavid, Gretzky, Lemieux, etc. Perhaps the prevalence of Canadians is lesser with the improvement of hockey in other countries but it’s pretty obvious we’re still producing and grooming the highest end talent.

 

[flamesforcup]

What people seem to forget is that Canada is losing most of it's high end hockey genes with the NHL. With most of the teams in the US, most Canadians will play there too. And then they will meet some american hotty and settle down in the US. And because of that the next generation will play for the US. It's only a matter of time before the US becomes the dominant hockey nation in the world! Plus it doesn't help that Canada has changed a lot in the last few years because of a certain someone...

Who is that? Actually curious

 

[IDuck]

they will not be able to maintain it unless there is a change at the core...having a mentality of "its our game" and "we will always be the best" is what is killing them...i know Finland is developing hockey players by developing "athletes" not just "hockey players"...I am a coach and use the ADM, which is designed to use small areas to create skill/decision making in tight spaces while allowing more play/development/involvment and less skating after a puck...i think HC has realized that "its who we are" isnt getting it done any more and relying on a numbers game isnt going to be enough....BUT, if they use that pride in the right way then it will always be around that #....just my 2 cents.

 

[razor ray]

Canada has not slowed down.....its the USA that has the most opportunity for growth. The enrollment with Canada Hockey has been growing plus ticket sales and TV ratings have all been strong.

I would say finally hockey in the USA is starting to make serious inroads. Growing up in Michigan in the 80s we would drive to Windsor to catch hockey games because, at the time, the US networks would never show any hockey. Now you can see so much more hockey (even AHL and NCAA) on TV now and have access to view NHL, AHL, and ECHL, etc. almost everywhere. Enrollment numbers are also taking serious increases almost every year.

As for answering the questions from the OP I would say USA Hockey enrollment (based on opportunity) could pass Hockey Canada but I highly doubt the USA NHL numbers will pass Canada. Most of the top athletes in Canada still gravitate to hockey 1st.

NHL Players (non European) from Quant Hockey:

1970:
Can 96.6%
USA 1.1%

1980:
Can 81.8%
USA 9.1%

1990:
Can 71.7%
USA 17.3%

2000:
Can 47.6%
USA 15.8%

2017-18:
Can 45.1%
USA 25.5%

 

[Orfieus]

Yes it matters a lot to Canadians. You are asking about whether or not this is about national pride. It is strange you would ask that. Have you not noticed Canadian flags and sweaters worn by almost everyone at international games? It matters to Canadians, just like Americans want to be known for baseball, or even football. National pride isn't a bad thing, you know?

Your comment about Russians is surprising though as they are not part of any surge. If anything Swedes have improved recently. It all goes in cycles but Russians were more prominent in the NHL in the 1990s, I think, than today.

No matter what happens Hockey will always been a Canadian game. I'm actually very excited to see more countries making it to the NHL, just means the sport is getting more popular.

Hockey is only a game and it isn't what makes Canadian amazing.

 

[BeastoftheEast85]

Based on the last few drafts the NHL looks to be trending 35-40% Canadian, so probably not.

However I don’t think it’s an issue with Canada. More it’s due to expansion of hockey into new markets in the US and globally with is good.

 

[New User Name]

Within 50 years I wouldn't be surprised to see at least 70% of the league American born players.

 

[Kyndig]

Within 50 years I wouldn't be surprised to see at least 70% of the league American born players.

This. Canada just can't match USA's population. Too lazy to look it up but I think USA went from something like 6% to 27% in 20 years.

 

[Uncle Rotter]

Within 50 years I wouldn't be surprised to see at least 70% of the league American born players.

So there will be a greater % of Americans in the NHL than the NBA or MLB?

 

[razor ray]

This. Canada just can't match USA's population. Too lazy to look it up but I think USA went from something like 6% to 27% in 20 years.

You just needed to look 3 posts up for the data.

 

[Kyndig]

You just needed to look 3 posts up for the data.

That data is different from the stuff I read as an entire article was based off of a 21% increase.

 

[Apotheosis]

It's all a cycle. Minus 2015, the last few drafts have been non-Canadian heavy. 2019 and 2020's top end are mostly Canadian. The best players will always be Canadian. That'll never change.

 

[5 Minute Major]

The US is a more populated country. When Californians and Texans started getting drafted the trend was obvious.