Can Canada maintain 45-50% of the NHL?

Big Phil

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Nov 2, 2003
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This past season put it at 45% of the NHL being Canadian. 27% American which has been a huge jump in the last decade and I believe the best European country is Sweden at 9%. I remember the late 1990s/early 2000s when the idea was that eventually the NHL is going to be at least half Europeans when all is said and done but the opposite has happened. Euros dropped a bit, as did Canadians, and Americans skyrocketed.

So here is the thing, how much longer can Canada maintain this level of having approximately half of the NHL? Not to mention we still have about half the star players too. Half of the best forwards, half of the best defensemen and half of the best goalies are all still Canadian, but can it stay that way? The U.S. is climbing rather fast.

Looking at the past World Junior medal winners you see a difference. Canada won 5 in a row in the late 2000s. Not bad, and the U.S. was more or less nowhere to be found those years. They won a bronze in 2007 during that time, that's it. But starting in 2010 it has looked like this:

U.S. 6 medals (3 gold, 3 bronze)
Canada 6 medals (2 gold, 3 Silver, 1 bronze).

Granted, Canada still has the edge here. In this decade we have still played in 5 gold medal games to U.S.A.'s 3. We are there more often, but prior to 2010 the U.S. won a total of 5 medals (just one gold in 2004) in 33 years. Now in 9 years a total of 6.

My question is, how can Canada get even better? How can we stay ahead of the curve where we still get half of the best players? How do we win all these tournaments going forward? For what it is worth the U.S. hasn't won a best on best since their only time in 1996. Canada since then has won 5 in 7 tries. In the World Championships the U.S. never does well, even today. And there hasn't been a spike at all in the last decade for them either. They still perform lousy in this tournament while Canada usually gets enough interest from players and has two golds and a silver in the last three tournaments.

All I am saying is, how much longer before Canada loses its grip? Or have we already and is it only a matter of time? Or is there nothing to worry about?
 

theslatcher

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Jan 5, 2016
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It's more been other countries catching up to Canada(specifically Sweden, USA, & lately Finland), Canada will still have high-end talents and have great rosters at international tournaments as time goes on, but your NHL percentage will naturally fall.
 

JackSlater

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Apr 27, 2010
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Can? Yes. Will? Who knows, probably not.

The key area that Canada can improve in is affordability. If hockey becomes more affordable participation will go up and the impact will be felt down the road. There are tweaks that can and should be made to the development model in general (skills focus earlier, goaltending issues among other things) but those benefits pale in comparison to the benefits of affordability, especially as basketball and soccer become bigger.
 

WhiskeyYerTheDevils

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I don't think much longer. Look at the last few drafts and how much more young talent is coming from other countries. Canada will always be producing their fair share of superstars, but the US is closing.
 

Get North

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I still think Canada has potential to peak. Ontario has been carrying Canada for quite a while now along with Nova Scotia, but the West looks promising, I like how their youth system is working and it seems like the CSSHL is going to produce a ton of talent to the NHL very soon. The CSSHL was founded in 2009 but really took off in 2013 when more than 5 teams joined the league. Now, this is the main route for kids from the West, it includes highly-praised youth teams like the Notre Dame hounds from SK. If you're a kid trying to play in the NHL from the West and you want to play against the best players in your age group and receive the best chance to do it, CSSHL is probably your best choice. Basically, all the best Western kids are getting into one league with 13 teams so the talent is high-quality. These kids play games on the weekends and focus on school during the week, so it's like the NCAA, but most kids still choose to go the CHL path which is interesting.

I think the West has finally figured out something steady and reliable for the players. I expect the West to be challenging Ontario in terms of hockey talent very soon, which is great for Canadian hockey. Not sure about the Q, but recently it seems like they are producing more talent. I'm not concerned about Canada's future in hockey.

The West has been slacking in their part for a while, but will change very soon. The 2019 draft is going to be full of future stars from the WHL, guys like Dylan Cozens, Josh Williams, Bowen Byram, Layton Ahac, and Harrison Blaisdell. That's not even mentioning the players who didn't play in the CSSHL. The 2020 draft is already producing notable players and the WHL is leading it with the top defenceman.
 
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ForumNamePending

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I dunno... I think it's a pretty safe bet the % of Canadians will slip below 45%, and that's not necessarily a bad thing. I mean if the reason is because more places are producing more talent that is a good thing for the league/sport. If it's because the traditional largest producer of talent is in decline that is a bad thing for the league/sport.

As JackSlater said, more should be done regarding affordability. The big problem is the stupid amounts of money that has to be spent to play hockey at a level required to have a future playing it for a living.

I don't think much longer. Look at the last few drafts and how much more young talent is coming from other countries. Canada will always be producing their fair share of superstars, but the US is closing.

The thing is American draft numbers have sort of been trending down in recent years as well. It's Europe, after some really lean years (outside of Sweden), that has made big gains recently.
 

Bixby Snyder

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LOL, the horses are long gone and the barn has completely burned to the ground if your concern is Canada maintaining 50% representation in the NHL. It's at 45% now and will continue to slide as the USA's rises. This season only 5 or 6 teams had rosters that were mostly Canadian while teams like the Jets, Devils, and Penguins had more Americans that's a trend you will see continue in favor of the USA.
 

Big Phil

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Nov 2, 2003
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It's a good thing for the NHL to diversify.

And it has been for a while. Most of us are fine with that, but we still want our country to be the best, the deepest and keep producing elite talent. It isn't as if we are all of the sudden going to be the best in the world at Basketball, Baseball or Soccer. Hockey is all we have.

I dunno... I think it's a pretty safe bet the % of Canadians will slip below 45%, and that's not necessarily a bad thing. I mean if the reason is because more places are producing more talent that is a good thing for the league/sport. If it's because the traditional largest producer of talent is in decline that is a bad thing for the league/sport.

As JackSlater said, more should be done regarding affordability. The big problem is the stupid amounts of money that has to be spent to play hockey at a level required to have a future playing it for a living.

This is true. They have to make hockey affordable. It can't just be a rich kid's game. It never used to be. If we get back to our roots that way I think the sky is the limit to what we can do. Personally I think the talent we are punching out has dropped lately rather than just "the rest of the countries have caught up". And part of that is because of the price to play hockey in our country. So I think that is a bad thing.

The thing is American draft numbers have sort of been trending down in recent years as well. It's Europe, after some really lean years (outside of Sweden), that has made big gains recently

You think downwards? I am seeing the opposite of that. Americans are much more prominent in the NHL draft than they used to be. 2018 is NOT going to be a good draft for Canadian born players. Neither was 1999 or 2000 while the drafts surrounding it were, but still, it looks awfully weak for us.

I think Europeans have been stagnant in the last 20 years (Sweden and Finland is now picking up the pace while Russia has slipped a lot recently). But Americans are picking things up. It used to be 15% of the NHL was American and you could pick on one or two hands the really good players. That lasted a long time, even well into the 2000s.
 
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Big Phil

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Nov 2, 2003
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I still think Canada has potential to peak. Ontario has been carrying Canada for quite a while now along with Nova Scotia, but the West looks promising, I like how their youth system is working and it seems like the CSSHL is going to produce a ton of talent to the NHL very soon. The CSSHL was founded in 2009 but really took off in 2013 when more than 5 teams joined the league. Now, this is the main route for kids from the West, it includes highly-praised youth teams like the Notre Dame hounds from SK. If you're a kid trying to play in the NHL from the West and you want to play against the best players in your age group and receive the best chance to do it, CSSHL is probably your best choice. Basically, all the best Western kids are getting into one league with 13 teams so the talent is high-quality. These kids play games on the weekends and focus on school during the week, so it's like the NCAA, but most kids still choose to go the CHL path which is interesting.

I think the West has finally figured out something steady and reliable for the players. I expect the West to be challenging Ontario in terms of hockey talent very soon, which is great for Canadian hockey. Not sure about the Q, but recently it seems like they are producing more talent. I'm not concerned about Canada's future in hockey.

The West has been slacking in their part for a while, but will change very soon. The 2019 draft is going to be full of future stars from the WHL, guys like Dylan Cozens, Josh Williams, Bowen Byram, Layton Ahac, and Harrison Blaisdell. That's not even mentioning the players who didn't play in the CSSHL. The 2020 draft is already producing notable players and the WHL is leading it with the top defenceman.

I know that the 2019 and 2020 drafts are pretty Canadian-heavy so far. Alexis Lafreniere expecting to be the #1 overall pick in 2020 and he's on the right team too...........Rimouski Oceanic. It is about time too, Quebec used to be the home of highly skilled forwards and a goaltending factory. Part of what has made us slip is how far the QMJHL has fallen to produce the best.

2019 will have lots of Canadians again and yes I agree by the looks of it the WHL is really stepping up their game. Lots of talent coming from out west now.
 

Xokkeu

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If I were god the nhl would be like 20-30% Canadian. 15% American and the rest of a host of Europeans and since I’m god Chinese Japanese and Koreans get into it.

100% North American would be boring and I’d stop watching
 

Big Phil

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Nov 2, 2003
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If I were god the nhl would be like 20-30% Canadian. 15% American and the rest of a host of Europeans and since I’m god Chinese Japanese and Koreans get into it.

100% North American would be boring and I’d stop watching

You must have hated hockey in the 1980s........

of course

Cool. Any elaboration on why you think this?
 

Xokkeu

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Apr 5, 2012
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You must have hated hockey in the 1980s........



Cool. Any elaboration on why you think this?

You confused hockey for the nhl. Anyway I’m not old enough to have an opinion on the state of hockey in the 1980s
 
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ForumNamePending

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Mar 31, 2012
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You think downwards? I am seeing the opposite of that. Americans are much more prominent in the NHL draft than they used to be.

Sort of ya... Just looking at raw numbers it hasn't been trending up.
Year - Total(1st Round)
2010 - 59(11)
2011 - 59(6)
2012 - 56(6)
2013 - 56(3)
2014 - 64(5)
2015 - 56(7)
2016 - 54(11)
2017 - 47(5)

I dunno... I guess outside of some outliers the best way to describe things in recent years is stagnant.:dunno: If you go back and look at the first three years after the draft went to 7 rounds the US produced 60 or more picks each year and a total of 27 (8, 9, 10) went in the first round.

2018 is NOT going to be a good draft for Canadian born players. Neither was 1999 or 2000 while the drafts surrounding it were, but still, it looks awfully weak for us.

Ya, not really a "prospects guy" but my understanding is this year is a weak draft for Canada, pretty good for the US, and another really strong one for Europe.

I think Europeans have been stagnant in the last 20 years (Sweden and Finland is now picking up the pace while Russia has slipped a lot recently). But Americans are picking things up. It used to be 15% of the NHL was American and you could pick on one or two hands the really good players. That lasted a long time, even well into the 2000s.

It depends how you look at it. I wouldn't be surprised if the % of Europeans in the league this past season is pretty similar to what it was 20 years ago. However, in the years between things have been anything but stagnant. Before the (big) lockout Europeans made up >30% of the league, but in the years following numbers steadily declined and by the next lockout the % of Europeans was <23%. In recent years, led by a whole lot of Swedes, Europeans are up to >27%. With Finland back on track, the Czech Rep. showing signs of life, the Russian factor fading somewhat, and some "2nd tier" nations improving, I wouldn't be surprised if Europeans get up to ~30% again in the coming seasons.

The US made huge gains in the seasons following the (big) lockout (16.3% in 03-04 to 24.0% in 10-11), but then things stayed pretty stagnant (24.6% in '15-16) until a huge jump during the '16-17 season. Unless we start seeing an uptick in the number of American being drafted I'm not sure we will see the % of American players climb much higher than it is now (a little over 27%) in the coming seasons.

Based on recent draft numbers I would also expect the % of Canadians to continue to decline over the coming seasons.

Credit here for providing the % of nationalities.
 
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Big Phil

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Nov 2, 2003
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no, we'll always be the best

I agree too that we'll probably always be the best hockey country - at least for my entire lifetime - but do we ever end up like England in Soccer? In other words, the former best country that is now "one of" the elite teams? Even with the way things are now it is really, really hard for me to see another country having the players that Canada has overall but it doesn't mean we need to keep our foot off of the pedal.
 

HockeyAnalystGenius

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Jun 15, 2017
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Hockey Culture is dying in Canada. The country is Changing. American Culture is Changing too. They are playing More Hockey. By 2030 Canada will have 35% of the league. By 2050 it Might Not Even Be a Quarter.
 

karnige

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Oct 18, 2006
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the states has such a massive population it's bound to pass Canada one day
 

Regal

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I think it would be interesting to look at the percentage of players in terms of top line/bottom 6 etc. In the late 90s early 2000s when Canada was struggling and European countries appeared to be taking over, I think a large portion of non-Canadians were top 6 players and bottom 6 guys were still mostly Canadian. This was mainly due to both Canadians tending to play a style coaches preferred I'm the bottom 6, as well as most Europeans who couldn't get a significant role in the NHL seemingly preferring to play at home.

This seems to be changing lately though, with more non-Canadians spread throughout the lineup. I could see this continue to change and bring the number down a bit more.

However, at the same time we saw that lull at the top Canadian hockey followed by a surge, and we saw a surge of Czech/Slovak players slowly dwindle. Similarly the US slowed down after the mid-90s and has since picked it back up. Finland as well.

I think there's simply always going to be ebbs and flows to different countries and Canada will have lulls and bounce backs. They might be going through another lull in recent drafts, especially among defensemen, but I don't think this is necessarily a trend that will continue just as it didn't 15-20 years ago. Hockey is such an expensive game at this point that even with rising US popularity I'm not sure we'll see many significant changes among the counties that are already established as hockey powers. Where Canada will start to lose their percentage significantly will be if/when we start seeing new countries become powers.
 
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North Cole

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I agree too that we'll probably always be the best hockey country - at least for my entire lifetime - but do we ever end up like England in Soccer? In other words, the former best country that is now "one of" the elite teams? Even with the way things are now it is really, really hard for me to see another country having the players that Canada has overall but it doesn't mean we need to keep our foot off of the pedal.

No.

Can't compare the two. not having a world wide transfer market where players are exchanged for cash means that we will never have to lose players outside of the nhl.

The issue with English teams is that their scouting and development is lightyears behind. They rely on a strong currency (or your name is Abramovich) to be able to purchase players from other countries rather then actually bringing youth into their lower development tiers. Wilshere was super hyped and was the most notable "prospect" in an English development system for a long time... he is okay but I wouldn't call him a homerun.

Germany invested billions into their development and youth programs because they got tired of coming in 3rd and 4th in world cups. Now they are the champions and have a lot of really good young players. This is why English national football suffers even though the Prem is a strong league.

Long story short, the NHL is not faced with the challenges of soccer. Canada may decline, but at some point it will bottom out and rise again. As long as we keep producing Gretzky/lemieux/crosby/mcdavid level talents we will dominate in NHL enrollment.

Keep in mind we are also basically a one sport nation (curling is our other major sport).
 

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