Can Aston Villa and Newcastle become one of the big clubs in PL?
- Thread starter Eye of Ra
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- Jan 18, 2016
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Mount Suribachi
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Can they? Yes, but it will be hard. It's a multi-stage process for them both, especially Newcastle. First they have to stay up, then they have to fight their way into the mid-table (very competitive), then they have to fight their way into Europa League places (even more competitive), then they have to fight their way into the Champions League places (incredibly competitive).
Right now you have a top 3 of Man City, Chelsea and Liverpool. Then you've got Man Utd, Tottenham and Arsenal as the perennial European teams. Then you've got well funded, well run teams like West Ham, Wolves and Leicester who are always in and around those European spots. Villa probably have the best chance of slotting in around here, but its very, very hard to stay there. The other things is, billionaires quickly become bored when they're pouring millions into a club just to finish middle of the pack.
Man Utd have spent half a billion pounds and can't consistently qualify for the UCL, let alone win the league. Everton have spent hundreds of millions the last few seasons and are flirting with relegation. In the days before FFP Man City bought anyone with a pulse, their strategy was pretty much to fling as much **** as possible at the wall, and see what stuck. They struck gold with Aguero, Kompany and Silva who formed the backbone of their team for 10 years. Successful managers came and went until they managed to get Pep. Will Newcastle manage to get themselves a Kompany or Aguero? Will they get themselves a Pep?
When Chelsea did it, they were starting from a higher base, they'd had a decade of investment in the stadium and the club. They also struck gold when they appointed Mourinho, had Terry come through the academy at just the right moment, and all their **** flinging brought in cornerstones like Lampard and Drogba.
You have to take into account the city of Newcastle itself. It's a geographically isolated, one-club city with no national or international fanbase. Although it's had a revamp the last few years, its still a very unfashionable working class city. The surrounding countryside is gorgeous, one of my favourite parts of the country and I've regularly gone on holiday there, but I doubt Haaland or Mbappe is going to turn down Real Madrid because he's excited by the prospect of exploring Hadrian's Wall on his off days. When Newcastle had Keegan and a bit of cash in the 90s, they struggled to attract, and more importantly, keep top players. Fergie talked about it in his autobiography, no superstar in their prime wanted to go there (homeboy Shearer excepted). Instead they had a load of good players, past their prime but on good wages. Players like Batty and Speed and Owen.
Now, if they can pull off a coup like giving Liverpool £150M for Salah in the summer, or enticing Klopp when his contract is up in 2 years, they can give themselves a chance of getting in there. Personally, I can't stand Newcastle because I've always found their fans insufferable (comes from knowing many Newcastle fans at uni) so I hope they waste the £300M they've got before FFP runs out and finish 12th in 3 years.
Right now you have a top 3 of Man City, Chelsea and Liverpool. Then you've got Man Utd, Tottenham and Arsenal as the perennial European teams. Then you've got well funded, well run teams like West Ham, Wolves and Leicester who are always in and around those European spots. Villa probably have the best chance of slotting in around here, but its very, very hard to stay there. The other things is, billionaires quickly become bored when they're pouring millions into a club just to finish middle of the pack.
Man Utd have spent half a billion pounds and can't consistently qualify for the UCL, let alone win the league. Everton have spent hundreds of millions the last few seasons and are flirting with relegation. In the days before FFP Man City bought anyone with a pulse, their strategy was pretty much to fling as much **** as possible at the wall, and see what stuck. They struck gold with Aguero, Kompany and Silva who formed the backbone of their team for 10 years. Successful managers came and went until they managed to get Pep. Will Newcastle manage to get themselves a Kompany or Aguero? Will they get themselves a Pep?
When Chelsea did it, they were starting from a higher base, they'd had a decade of investment in the stadium and the club. They also struck gold when they appointed Mourinho, had Terry come through the academy at just the right moment, and all their **** flinging brought in cornerstones like Lampard and Drogba.
You have to take into account the city of Newcastle itself. It's a geographically isolated, one-club city with no national or international fanbase. Although it's had a revamp the last few years, its still a very unfashionable working class city. The surrounding countryside is gorgeous, one of my favourite parts of the country and I've regularly gone on holiday there, but I doubt Haaland or Mbappe is going to turn down Real Madrid because he's excited by the prospect of exploring Hadrian's Wall on his off days. When Newcastle had Keegan and a bit of cash in the 90s, they struggled to attract, and more importantly, keep top players. Fergie talked about it in his autobiography, no superstar in their prime wanted to go there (homeboy Shearer excepted). Instead they had a load of good players, past their prime but on good wages. Players like Batty and Speed and Owen.
Now, if they can pull off a coup like giving Liverpool £150M for Salah in the summer, or enticing Klopp when his contract is up in 2 years, they can give themselves a chance of getting in there. Personally, I can't stand Newcastle because I've always found their fans insufferable (comes from knowing many Newcastle fans at uni) so I hope they waste the £300M they've got before FFP runs out and finish 12th in 3 years.
spintheblackcircle
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robertmac43
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I think Newcastle definitely can but it will take some time. The sheer amount of money they can spend on players and other aspects of the club is insane. They just spend 25 million on Wood like it was nothing... After a couple of full summer windows, they could make a scary starting X1
Villa have been spending like crazy since they last got promoted and still are mid-table-ish.
Newcastle are a different story since they're a state-funded PR project. They can carpet the league in billions. Wishing upon wish they go down this year at least.
Newcastle are a different story since they're a state-funded PR project. They can carpet the league in billions. Wishing upon wish they go down this year at least.
Chimaera
same ol' Caps
Yes, they can.
But will they? I would say a bit unlikely.
Newcastle has more chance than Villa, just based on sheer money behind the project.
I mean, it was not completely expected that City would completely get there either. But here they are.
It's a bit harder to get into the top 6 and stay, but if you throw enough money at the project, you can do it.
But will they? I would say a bit unlikely.
Newcastle has more chance than Villa, just based on sheer money behind the project.
I mean, it was not completely expected that City would completely get there either. But here they are.
It's a bit harder to get into the top 6 and stay, but if you throw enough money at the project, you can do it.
Could City? Newcastle is obvious. Hire some consultants from City and PSG and FFP is sorted.
Villa was kind of on the way at one point. Teams like Birmingham and Wolverhampton were clearly smaller - so they dominated Birmingham as a city. Not that I know the local conditions there, but I can imagine that if Villa had been top 6-7 for years and years they would see more and more fans moving towards Villa locally rather than spreading across (not all of course). They kind of wasted that opportunity. Villa Park was also among the bigger in England. But with teams like Spurs, Aresenal etc. building new grounds - Villa Park is nothing special in terms of size any longer - it is fairly average - and small for a "big team". Could they become a top club again? I doubt it without outside money, but it is not completely impossible. Leicester is a much smaller club and they kind of were a top club for some years. If Villa got some sort of golden generation they could build on who knows. Of the clubs not mentioned Spurs are obviously the most likely. After that I would place Villa ahead of West Ham. Mainly because Villa can dominate Birmingham - while WH could never dominate London - or even likely catch the other London clubs in terms of support.
Villa was kind of on the way at one point. Teams like Birmingham and Wolverhampton were clearly smaller - so they dominated Birmingham as a city. Not that I know the local conditions there, but I can imagine that if Villa had been top 6-7 for years and years they would see more and more fans moving towards Villa locally rather than spreading across (not all of course). They kind of wasted that opportunity. Villa Park was also among the bigger in England. But with teams like Spurs, Aresenal etc. building new grounds - Villa Park is nothing special in terms of size any longer - it is fairly average - and small for a "big team". Could they become a top club again? I doubt it without outside money, but it is not completely impossible. Leicester is a much smaller club and they kind of were a top club for some years. If Villa got some sort of golden generation they could build on who knows. Of the clubs not mentioned Spurs are obviously the most likely. After that I would place Villa ahead of West Ham. Mainly because Villa can dominate Birmingham - while WH could never dominate London - or even likely catch the other London clubs in terms of support.
"Support" is a nebulous term that frankly doesn't even have much application here. Did City dominate Manchester before they became a "big" club? Of course not. Do they even dominate Manchester now? Also no. Tottenham certainly doesn't dominate London, and yet they've wrestled at the top with somewhat regularity.
West Ham's attendance figures are second to only United (or third behind Arsenal too depending on where you look). They are incredibly well supported. And yet, still not in that club tier. The money/structure come first. Support has very little to do with it.
These Are The Days
Oh no! We suck again!!
For normal clubs support matters. City is different.
Of course WH could be the next City with similar owners. Same as Colchester.
Liverpool can only compete with the best because they have a huge fan base globally. So I would say support is a lot more important than you think. Villa could be the Green Bay Packers of Birmingham - WH won't for London (even if London got a higher population of course - so the city can in that sense support more clubs than Birmingham).
Spurs would be the same. I don't see how they would have been able to make the investments they have in the stadium and training facilities without a fairly big fan base.
So yes - I believe Villa are more likely than WH to become a "top club". Don't think either will - and even if I think Villa are more likely - it isn't like the probability is 100% Villa and 0% WH (between the two). More like 70/30 or something I guess.
Not understanding what you mean by "Spurs would be the same". My point was that in no way do Spurs "dominate" London as shown by multiple clubs outdrawing them in the city, and yet, they've broken into that top tier at various points. The global fan base, such that they do have, came after not before. I don't even quite get why we're now talking global, when this started by you saying the issue was "dominating" their neighborhood. Liverpool have been a major international club for decades upon decades. It's hardly a relevant comparison when talking clubs breaking into the top. You think dominating Birmingham will get a bunch of Malaysians to stand up and take notice or something?
Nobody cares about being the best in Birmingham, any more than Brighton being the biggest draw on the South Coast. That translates exactly nill to being among the best in England, which is where the rest follows. And contending at that level, means you either have an owner with pockets or a model that sustains and builds on structural excellence, a la Leicester. In both cases, it isn't the support that influences that competitiveness, that's what follows.
Birmingham isn’t exactly Brighton.
I see the mentioning of Spurs triggered something. Not my intention. Three clubs dominate from London. Maybe that makes it better. Not sure.
I see the mentioning of Spurs triggered something. Not my intention. Three clubs dominate from London. Maybe that makes it better. Not sure.
Lol it didn't trigger, it just flies in the face of what you're saying and I'm trying to clarify. But whatever, not going to belabor it.
It has to always be a passing match, but I'd very much venture to say West Ham is better supported than Tottenham in London - and as I've said continually, that has had no bearing on success. Agree or disagree, take it how you will. Doesn't appear we'll see eye to eye on this one.
All of the Midlands has a population of 10M versus 8.5M on the South Coast. It's not a wildly out of pocket comparison at all.
I still think Villa got a better shot at becoming a “top club” than West Ham. Maybe I should add Brighton to the list as well now.
And that isn’t because I’m a Spursfan. I have no “hate” towards even Arsenal. I would rather see Arsenal win things than a club like City.
And that isn’t because I’m a Spursfan. I have no “hate” towards even Arsenal. I would rather see Arsenal win things than a club like City.
JeffreyLFC
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- Sep 29, 2017
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In Football anything is possible.
That being said it will require significant investment to the team and a world class academy.
That being said it will require significant investment to the team and a world class academy.
You can add Cardiff and Billericay to your list too, it still won't make your underlying logic sensible.
Thinking Aston Villa has more potential to become a "big" (successful) club is a perfectly cogent position to take given their owner has already been pumping hundreds of millions of pounds into the club. If they make that jump it will be thanks to that, not because they have primacy over Birmingham City.
Ceremony
blahem
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It's perhaps the biggest tragedy in HF history that we're not here to see Stray Wasp's opinion on what Newcastle United now is.
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Live in the Now
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Ceremony
blahem
- Jun 8, 2012
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