Value of: Calgary Trading Up at the Draft

[GOilers88]

Keep the picks, make the selections and develop the prospects.

Edmonton made the serious mistake of grabbing a pile of picks in their early stages of their forever rebuild and then pissed them away in stupid trades that only prolonged the agony. Conroy has hopefully learned from their mistake.

It was, and is, the inability to turn those draft picks into anything of substance thats the issue. Not trading them.

As long as Conroy and his team can make real use of some of their picks, trading others for proven talent, or to move up for someone they like is never a bad thing when retooling. If you really like a player in the top 10 I say go for it. You just have to be really sure of the potential. Even then you'll get burned eventually, but that's the nature of the beast.

 

[Kielbasa]

In 2013 the very Flames we're speaking of offered picks: #6, #22 and #28 to Colorado for Pick #1



It's crazy that for a team that has been so mediocre for so long, including some absolutely ASS seasons within the past 25-30 years the highest the Flames have ever picked was 4th overall.

Tell me about it, sigh.
The last time the Flames had a genuine top 10 centre, they traded him when I was one. I turn thirty this year

 

[TBF1972]

Troll post? Montreal is already going to be getting Florida's 1st. You are basically suggesting Calgary trades this years top 10 pick + next year's top 10 pick for 6th or 7th OA

you forgot ylönen, a b prospect

 

[DJJones]

Not going to brag but I ran the NHL simulator yesterday and Flames got first on my first roll.

 

[InfinityIggy]

In 2013 the very Flames we're speaking of offered picks: #6, #22 and #28 to Colorado for Pick #1.



It's crazy that for a team that has been so mediocre for so long, including some absolutely ASS seasons within the past 25-30 years the highest the Flames have ever picked was 4th overall.

And only *once* in the top 5 at that.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

MTL : #6 + B prospect like Ylonen
for
CGY : #10 + Florida first pick 2025

This would mean Montreal gets Calgary's 1st in 2025, or 2026 for the Monahan deal and Calgary isn't doing that.

 

[General Fanager]

It does not cost a 1st from a stronger draft year that will be roughly the same as the pick they are trying to acquire, on top of the current top 10 pick

You dont know that it doesnt just like I dont know that it does....

The true cost is whatever some GM is willing to pay.

 

[Scintillating10]

I think you are really undervaluing the cost to move up. Pick value increases exponentially the earlier it is. Even if the prospects are relatively similar the choice to take a preferred prospect holds value. On top of that Calgary is far from the only team looking to add a center at the draft and unlike most draft years there are not a lot of top end centers prospects in this class.

Right now Montreal holds the 6th OA pick. Assuming neither Calgary or Montreal wins the lottery for Celebrini, they will almost certainly be targeting a center as well. That leaves Lindstrom, Catton, and Helenius. And while all 3 are good prospects the first 2 are (at least in my opinion) the clearly more desirable choices. In the scenario where One of the 2 is gone by the time Montreal picks they will probably want to select the other. In the scenario that both are still available by the time Montreal picks we are essentially paying premium to move up 3 spots to have our choice at at the centers. At that point I would rather just hope for one of them to still be available by the time we pick (which is likely).

Also as I've said earlier. next year is a far more lucrative draft in terms of center prospects. Calgary is probably going to be a top 10 pick next year and retain their 2025 1st from the Monahan trade. Like even if they don't win the lotto for Hagens there are still Frondell, Misa, Ryabkin, McQueen, and Moore.

Habs may trade back but it will take core player. Not interested much in Canucks pick. Unless a throw in. It's likely 32

 

[Mike Jones]

It was, and is, the inability to turn those draft picks into anything of substance thats the issue. Not trading them.

As long as Conroy and his team can make real use of some of their picks, trading others for proven talent, or to move up for someone they like is never a bad thing when retooling. If you really like a player in the top 10 I say go for it. You just have to be really sure of the potential. Even then you'll get burned eventually, but that's the nature of the beast.

Again, the Oilers taught us one thing: Keep the picks and develop them. All of them.

I don't think anybody wants to trade down out of the top 10 this draft. I also don't think GMs are going to be offering the new kid value for the picks he's gathered.

Keep them and send the kids to the Wranglers when then graduate from their respective leagues.

 

[ManByng]

Calgary is in dire need of Centre prospects, and is completely devoid of ones with elite potential. As of now they'd sit 9th in the draft, would it make sense to move up to draft a Catton or Lindstrom? What is the likelyhood of Calgary getting either without trading up?

I imagine it would cost around a 2nd if they were moving up only a couple of spots.

If Calgary finishes in the top 10 with their pick, then a center like Catton, Lidstrom and Helenius could be there for the taking, but man, the defensive prospects that could still be there with Yakemchuk, Buium and Parekh are eye watering! It’s gonna be a VERY tough decision for them to make if they should end up picking say around #8 or there abouts!!

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Habs may trade back but it will take core player. Not interested much in Canucks pick. Unless a throw in. It's likely 32

Only way I see Habs trading their pick is if Anaheim offers them Zegras for it

 

[General Fanager]

Only way I see Habs trading their pick is if Anaheim offers them Zegras for it

Depends on where the pick is and who is available....but yes thats the kind of guy it would take...

 

[General Fanager]

If Calgary finishes in the top 10 with their pick, then a center like Catton, Lidstrom and Helenius could be there for the taking, but man, the defensive prospects that could still be there with Yakemchuk, Buium and Parekh are eye watering! It’s gonna be a VERY tough decision for them to make if they should end up picking say around #8 or there abouts!!

If The Habs pick ahead of The Flames, One of those centers will be off the board. I dont see them taking one of the dmen but who knows....

 

[pth2]

Depends on where the pick is and who is available....but yes thats the kind of guy it would take...

It might not be someone who's gotten the same level of media attention, though.

Say, Dawson Mercer in NJ (not suggesting it, just as an example) (or Tomasino, or Lundell) - a lot of people in Montreal would have a meltdown but any of the 3 would be a better bet than whoever Montreal might pick in the 5-9 range.

That being said, I'd be cautious before moving a pick in the top 10, since the young player you get in return won't have the same high-end potential. (ie, the Boldy's, Seth Jarvis's and Byfield's of this world just won't be available for this kind of pick).

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Depends on where the pick is and who is available....but yes thats the kind of guy it would take...

I think their guy is Lindstrom but if he's gone I think they take Catton in a heartbeat

 

[HabsAddict]

We need centers so there is NO chance we trade our pick unless Lindstrome and Catton are gone.

Then it will be a tough choice not to pick the best defenseman available even if we have a truck load of them.

We already went stupid picking Kotkaniemi over Tkachuk so picking a projected 2C-3C over a projected top 2 or franchise defenseman is asinine asset management.

We shall see...

 

[Scintillating10]

I think their guy is Lindstrom but if he's gone I think they take Catton in a heartbeat

Basically you have it. If both gone Habs taking right D.

 

[General Fanager]

I think their guy is Lindstrom but if he's gone I think they take Catton in a heartbeat

I agree

Basically you have it. If both gone Habs taking right D.

I guess this is true but they need forwards so bad it would be disappointing. As of right now they are top 9 for sure so my hope is there is a run on Dmen and one of the centers fall.

 

[viper0220]

The Flames should just keep the picks and draft the BAP.

 

[Scintillating10]

I agree




I guess this is true but they need forwards so bad it would be disappointing. As of right now they are top 9 for sure so my hope is there is a run on Dmen and one of the centers fall.

Build a great defense is good also

 

[StreetHawk]

It's one thing to flip with CAl's pick to go 2-3 spots higher for someone. Another to use Van's and Cal's 2nd to try to move way up. NHL draft lists vary a lot once you get into the later teens and early 20's.

Main issue is that with the development time required for most 2nd rounders, you are not seeing htat return for anywhere from 2-4 years. If you are drafting high, it's for a reason. So, either you are looking to get better next season and want Now players vs more picks, like teams such as Sea, Mon, NJ, Buf are more likely to be looking for if they wish to move their 1st.
I don't think most of the bottom teams are as depleted in their prospect pool as SJ was in 2022 to trade back that far to gain 2 extra 2nd rounders.

In theory it sounds like having those extra picks should allow you to move up, but reality is that each GM has a timeline to get the team turned around and back to the PO. Some will be on the clock to get it done in 2025 or they will be fired. Others have a couple of years still of asset accumulation. But, it's finding that right fit. And that other team believing that their scouting dept and development group can turn those players into NHLers.

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

The issue with trading up is less the cost than the opportunity to do so - if a team picking higher doesn't particularly like whoever is left over, they might well trade down for only a 2nd rounder.... but you can't count on them doing so until you're on the draft floor and they see who is available.

ie, the team trading down is the one in control, and I've never heard of a team unsure of trading down by being talked into it by a bigger offer.

Can you provide an example of this ever happening? The only example I can think of was the Islander moving down a couple of time to take Bailey, but that was 10+ years ago.

The reason why this type of deal is unlikely is that it creates a significant of risk for the GM/organization with very little upside. If you move back from 5 to 9, the GM is forever going to be measured by who he takes at 9, vs. who went 5-8. The odds of a 2nd round DP actually having a NHL career of note (aka - more than a 4th liner or 6th/7th dman) is probably less than 15-20%. Just a lot of bad options from the GM's perpsective with very limited upside (and that upside is probably at least 3-4 years from being realized, if ever).

 

[pth2]

Can you provide an example of this ever happening? The only example I can think of was the Islander moving down a couple of time to take Bailey, but that was 10+ years ago.

The reason why this type of deal is unlikely is that it creates a significant of risk for the GM/organization with very little upside. If you move back from 5 to 9, the GM is forever going to be measured by who he takes at 9, vs. who went 5-8. The odds of a 2nd round DP actually having a NHL career of note (aka - more than a 4th liner or 6th/7th dman) is probably less than 15-20%. Just a lot of bad options from the GM's perpsective with very limited upside (and that upside is probably at least 3-4 years from being realized, if ever).

No specific examples come to mind.... but just about any team trading up implies another trading down, and when teams have a handful of guys they see as having similar potential, that's when they move down to get extra picks.

EDIT: You might see limited upside for the team trading down, but they see upside at no risk. if you project some interesting prospects will be available later on in the draft, but right now you'd be picking a guy far ahead of where he should go.... why not trade down, get those extra picks, and pick the same guy you had your sights on anyways?

And while we tend, as fans, to focus on the high-end players, GMs have an organization to run - they need to have new kids being pumped in, given a chance, push vets if they can, and move onwards sooner or later. Adding 2nd rounders gives them options to add depth where they want it, and hopefully strike gold sooner or later with a star picked later than expected.

 

[Brodeur]

Can you provide an example of this ever happening? The only example I can think of was the Islander moving down a couple of time to take Bailey, but that was 10+ years ago.

It wasn't in the top 10, but I was reminded of Detroit in 2011. Apparently they were targeting Tyler Biggs at #24, but Toronto traded up to #22 to get him. Detroit then traded #24 to Ottawa for #35 (Tomas Jurco) and #48 (Xavier Ouellet).

It sounded like Toronto was thinking about moving down in 2015 if the Coyotes had taken Mitch Marner at #3. Footage from Columbus' table showed them considering a Leafs offer of #4 for #8, #34, #38, and #58. I forget where I read it, but I seem to recall that the Leafs next target was Matt Barzal.

 

[General Fanager]

Build a great defense is good also

It sure is, unless your team is bottom 5 in goals for....

Guess where The Habs are......