Value of: Calgary Trading Up at the Draft

[Lockin17]

MTL : #6 + B prospect like Ylonen
for
CGY : #10 + Florida first pick 2025

 

[crackdown44]

I’m good with taking one of Helenius/Yak/Iginla at pick 10-12 if that’s where they end up. Don’t think it would be worth the price to move up 3-4 spots

 

[Bounces R Way]

Unless it's Celebrini which isn't happening I don't see much point. The difference in quality from '2nd tier' to '3rd tier' in this draft isn't much. Maybe they see someone they really like and throw in a 2nd to move up a spot or two.

 

[crackdown44]

I think Pitt is probably the only team that might be willing to trade down too and that’s only if they consider 3-4 guys at their original pick to be about the same. They need some quantity so they might be willing to drop down a spot or two for a 2nd

 

[Nanuuk]

Calgary is in dire need of Centre prospects, and is completely devoid of ones with elite potential. As of now they'd sit 9th in the draft, would it make sense to move up to draft a Catton or Lindstrom? What is the likelyhood of Calgary getting either without trading up?

I imagine it would cost around a 2nd if they were moving up only a couple of spots.

Zary and Pospisil were drafted as centres and both want to give it a whirl. Sharangovich has played well at C, except he can't win draws, but is not a long term solution.

I think the Flames will draft the best player available and I also think there will be a draft day trade that may either bring back a C or an additional first round pick.

Would they trade up to get a player? Possibly. And possibly not for a centre.

 

[thefutures]

At the risk of sounding like a broken record from a similar thread about Minnesota trading up, it's contingent on a team wanting to trade down.

Thanks to the NFL Draft, I think there's a misconception that if a team offers enough on a draft pick value chart that the other team would definitely trade down. In many cases, a team would rather just stay put and not risk missing out on their guy since the expected value of a garden variety 2nd rounder isn't as high as most of us like to think. NHL teams will typically trade down if they can land they guy they would have taken at their original spot.

The other factor is most of the teams picking in the top 10 probably picked up some extra 2nds/3rds at the trade deadline. And then with regards to the 2024 draft class, there's apparently a depth drop at around #20 so a high 2nd rounder might be even less appealing.

Some post-lockout examples:

2005: San Jose offered #12, #35, and another later pick to Columbus for #6 but were turned down. Sharks then completed a deal to send #12, #49, #207 to Atlanta for #8.

2006: Boston offered #5 and #37 to Washington for #4, but the Caps declined after Boston indicated that they would be taking Nicklas Backstrom.

2007: St. Louis offered #9 and #24 to Edmonton for #6; Blues wanted Jakub Voracek. But since there was a perceived tier drop after #7, Edmonton declined. St. Louis' next target after Voracek was Lars Eller who they thought would be available a few picks later. St. Louis pivoted and traded #9 to San Jose for #13, #44, and #87.

2008: Islanders traded #5 to Toronto for #7, #68, and a future 2nd. Then they traded #7 to Nashville for #9 and #40. As I remember it, Garth Snow inherited a barren farm system, so he was happy to acquire more picks.

2009: Ottawa approached Toronto about moving from #9 to #7 but they didn't get to make an offer once they said they were targeting Nazem Kadri.

2012: Garth Snow infamously channeled his inner Mike Ditka and allegedly offered all of the Islanders picks to move up from #4 to #2. Columbus declined.

2013: I think Buffalo was trying to move up from #16 to get Max Domi but were unable to find a trade partner.

2015: Toronto put out an offer (contingent on "their guy" not being available) to send #4 to Columbus for #8, #34, #38, and #58. Columbus thought the ask was too much; They had a slight preference of Noah Hanifin over Zach Werenski. They'd link up later and Toronto traded #29 to Columbus for #34 and #68.

New Jersey offered #6 to Columbus for #8, #34, and #129. Columbus declined and figured there was a good chance that Werenski would last two picks. Columbus apparently got stonewalled after asking Carolina about #5.

2017: Vegas wanted to make a splash at its first draft and walk out with Nolan Patrick at #1. New Jersey was apparently willing to trade back to #3 since at least one of Nico Hischier or Cale Makar would still be there. But Dallas was unwilling to trade back from #3 to #6. Dallas reportedly also turned down an offer from the Rangers (#7 and #21) for #3.

2019: Arizona traded #14 and #45 to Philadelphia for #11. Arizona had Victor Soderstrom in their top 5.

2021: I couldn't find any exact offers, but the Sharks pinged a couple teams about moving up for William Eklund and were ecstatic when they got him at #7. They had him #2 on their draft board.

2022 - sharks traded pick 11 to Arizona for 27, 34 and 45

 

[Kielbasa]

A 2nd not going to move you much. How high you want to go?

I was thinking that would be the cost to from 9 to 7 if one of Lindstrom or Catton are still available.

 

[Brodeur]

2022 - sharks traded pick 11 to Arizona for 27, 34 and 45

Yup, I mentioned that one in a similar thread about Minnesota trading up. I omitted that one since the OP was asking about Calgary trading up if they were picking around #9.

 

[Scintillating10]

I was thinking that would be the cost to from 9 to 7 if one of Lindstrom or Catton are still available.

You would be very lucky. Top 10 picks rarely get moved

 

[Yepthatsme]

MTL : #6 + B prospect like Ylonen
for
CGY : #10 + Florida first pick 2025

It would be very illegal to trade Montreal a pick they are currently linked to get from another trade.

Just because I’ve had to correct people here already, for people who don’t know how the Monahan trade works, if Calgary drafts top 10 next year (and Florida doesn’t), Montreal gets Florida’s pick and Calgary keeps their own.

 

[pth2]

It would be very illegal to trade Montreal a pick they are currently linked to get from another trade.

Just because I’ve had to correct people here already, for people who don’t know how the Monahan trade works, if Calgary drafts top 10 next year (and Florida doesn’t), Montreal gets Florida’s pick and Calgary keeps their own.

If Calgary agrees to this trade, the Monahan trade becomes Calgary's first, only protected against #1 overall. Works for me...

 

[Kielbasa]

Calgary desperately needs a high end defensive prospect too.. Take who is available at 8-12, and don't waste assets.

Fair, although I think Brzustewicz and Poirier have shown enough that they have some assets with higher upside. Their best centre prospect is Zary, but I'm not sure I see him as a centre in the NHL. After that it's basically Lipinski, Shwindt, and Kerins... Woof. I don't mind any of them individually, but they're C tier prospects.

 

[MNRube]

Wrong year to be doing that. The top dozen or so prospects are good but the depth is lacking. Won’t get much value for the lesser picks when it’s common knowledge this draft is top-heavy

 

[Leafsfanperson]

You would be very lucky. Top 10 picks rarely get moved

And top ten picks rarely become star let alone corner stone talent.

Falling in love with a 4-10 OA pick? It's just a cope for non playoff teams to think they'll win a scratch ticket.

 

[TMLife17]

Iginla. Don't care where the pick is.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

Meh this draft is pretty flat from 2-13. Any of those prospects will be good gets. If we can get a Catton or Lindstrom sure I’d move a second to move up a few spots but I’m not sure those guys are any better than Iginla for example

 

[Scintillating10]

And top ten picks rarely become star let alone corner stone talent.

Falling in love with a 4-10 OA pick? It's just a cope for non playoff teams to think they'll win a scratch ticket.

Might be, might not be. Fact is top 10 picks rarely get traded. Teams generally want their guy.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Probably the most realistic trade would be Calgary’s 1st and Vancouvers 1st to move up 3-4 spots and for the other teams 2nd this year. Calgary moves their early pick up 3-4 spots, the other team moves up from the second to the first or an additional 10-15 spots pending the team/Vancouver. Calgary maybe adds a different teams 2nd or 3rd as well pending how many spots they want to move. So basically:

Calgary Receives
6th overall
2nd round pick (38th)

Team Receives
9th overall
1st round pick (~26th)

I think you are really undervaluing the cost to move up. Pick value increases exponentially the earlier it is. Even if the prospects are relatively similar the choice to take a preferred prospect holds value. On top of that Calgary is far from the only team looking to add a center at the draft and unlike most draft years there are not a lot of top end centers prospects in this class.

Right now Montreal holds the 6th OA pick. Assuming neither Calgary or Montreal wins the lottery for Celebrini, they will almost certainly be targeting a center as well. That leaves Lindstrom, Catton, and Helenius. And while all 3 are good prospects the first 2 are (at least in my opinion) the clearly more desirable choices. In the scenario where One of the 2 is gone by the time Montreal picks they will probably want to select the other. In the scenario that both are still available by the time Montreal picks we are essentially paying premium to move up 3 spots to have our choice at at the centers. At that point I would rather just hope for one of them to still be available by the time we pick (which is likely).

Also as I've said earlier. next year is a far more lucrative draft in terms of center prospects. Calgary is probably going to be a top 10 pick next year and retain their 2025 1st from the Monahan trade. Like even if they don't win the lotto for Hagens there are still Frondell, Misa, Ryabkin, McQueen, and Moore.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

MTL : #6 + B prospect like Ylonen
for
CGY : #10 + Florida first pick 2025

Troll post? Montreal is already going to be getting Florida's 1st. You are basically suggesting Calgary trades this years top 10 pick + next year's top 10 pick for 6th or 7th OA

 

[General Fanager]

Calgary is in dire need of Centre prospects, and is completely devoid of ones with elite potential. As of now they'd sit 9th in the draft, would it make sense to move up to draft a Catton or Lindstrom? What is the likelyhood of Calgary getting either without trading up?

I imagine it would cost around a 2nd if they were moving up only a couple of spots.

Just a guess but I would guess that 0% chance that Lindstrom would fall to #9, Catton at #9 is possible if there is a run on those top Dmen in the draft.

Troll post? Montreal is already going to be getting Florida's 1st. You are basically suggesting Calgary trades this years top 10 pick + next year's top 10 pick for 6th or 7th OA

I wont argue the value but moving up that high in the draft is insanely expensive

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Just a guess but I would guess that 0% chance that Lindstrom would fall to #9, Catton at #9 is possible if there is a run on those top Dmen in the draft.


I wont argue the value but moving up that high in the draft is insanely expensive

It does not cost a 1st from a stronger draft year that will be roughly the same as the pick they are trying to acquire, on top of the current top 10 pick

 

[Chose]

In 2022, I won the Nostradamus award on another site for my prediction of 4 of the top 6. (Including Slaf, obviously !)

Mark my words, if Lindstrom is available when MTL chooses, they pick him.
And they won't trade down. They are also going to tank hard during those last 12 games and finish at 5 to get him.

1.Sharks --> Celibrini
2.Hawks --> Demidov
3.Ducks --> Levshunov
4.Jackets --> Dickinson
5.Habs --> Lindstrom
6.Yotes --> Silayev
7.Sens --> Buium
8.Kraken --> Catton
9.Pens --> Helenius
10. Sabres --> Parekh
11. Flames --> Inginla

 

[InfinityIggy]

Our only hope is winning the lottery for the first time in franchise history. Thats it.

 

[StreetHawk]

Bruins had 13, 14 and 15 and 3 2nds in 2015 and were not able to move up. It’s expensive to move to into “pretty sure bet” territory in the draft.

And 2015 was a strong draft. But after the big 2, little surprised that 2 of those picks plus their 2nd (Carlo) would not get them to 3-6. Those were Strome, Marner, Hanifin, McLeod.

But nhl draft isn’t the nfl one where 2nd rounders are valuable compared to the nhl. Plus the results or impact is immediate. Second rounders are anywhere from 2-4 years away from playing.

 

[Volica]

2013: I think Buffalo was trying to move up from #16 to get Max Domi but were unable to find a trade partner.

In 2013 the very Flames we're speaking of offered picks: #6, #22 and #28 to Colorado for Pick #1.

Our only hope is winning the lottery for the first time in franchise history. Thats it.

It's crazy that for a team that has been so mediocre for so long, including some absolutely ASS seasons within the past 25-30 years the highest the Flames have ever picked was 4th overall.