C Elias Pettersson - Växjö Lakers HC, SHL (2017, 5th, VAN) Part 2
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Pettersson had 41 points in 43 games and Pastrnak had 24 points in 36 games. Obviously hoping for a pastrnak type player would be amazing and is probably unlikely, but in the Allesvenskan Pettersson definitely had better production.
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It really wasn't as impressive. I like Pettersson as a prospect and have nothing against him but when Pettersson was the same age as Pastrnak and not looking at draft year (birth date is a better comparison in my opinion), Pastrnak vastly outproduced Pettersson. Pastrnak had 24 in 36 and at the same age as Pettersson had 27 in 46 in the NHL. Pettersson had 9 in 25 and then 41 in 43. Their ages at this time are more reasonable to compare in my opinion then it is to simply look at their draft years since Pettersson is a late birthday and Pastrnak is not.
But it's not like you become vastly better when you become 19. It's a gradual process.
It's not draft year that matters, it's age. Pettersson is a late-birthday,
In their 17YR old season:
Pettersson had 9P in 25GP
Karlsson had 4P in 14GP
Berglund had 4P in 21GP
In their 18YR old season:
Berglund had 48P in 35GP
Karlsson had 45P in 46GP
Pettersson had 41P in 43GP
Maybe the Allsvenskan has improved over the years, but let's not pretend Pettersson's numbers blow them out of the water by comparing his 18YR old season to their 17YR old seasons.
Pastrnak was a year younger when he put up those numbers.
The proper comparison is:
17YR old Pastrnak: 24P in 36GP
17YR old Pettersson: 9P in 25GP
To answer your question, it's much more impressive.
bottomofthefoodchain
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Karlsson was about 3 months younger than Pettersson in his draft year, born in january. Not using draft season is strange, but whatever floats your boat.
It's not a negative though, not a positive either. Just two different leagues.
bottomofthefoodchain
Registered User
Im repeating myself, but in Pettersson's so called 18YR old season he is 3 months older than Karlsson was in his 17YR season. Sounds like a better comparison to me.
It is a gradual process but since there is no perfect way to evaluate players in or across drafts, I choose to compare using their birth years. When Pastrnak was drafted he had just completed his "17YO" season and when Pettersson was drafted he just completed his "18YO" season.. that's the way I choose to evaluate them but everyone is different.
Whether they played hockey or not they have the potential for another season of development since they're "one" birth year older then the other first time eligible players for their draft.
Not really. Pettersson and Pastrnak were both drafted after their 2nd year in the Allsvenskan. Pastrnak played 11 games the year before, Pettersson played 25. If you want to think the extra 14 games Pettersson played made a big difference in his second year, go ahead. Most rational people can comprehend that it's a very minor difference when looking at development.
Months don't matter either, it's birth year that matters.
Pettersson has been competing against his fellow '98 borns since he strapped on skates. It's only because of the arbitrary Sept 15 draft cut-off that he got selected in 2017 instead of 2016.
His production should be compared to what other 18YR olds have done, not what 17YR olds have done.
The easy solution is to compare them based on their number of years in the league. First year vs first year, second year vs second year. Makes more sense than fussing over a couple of months of age.
It only matters if development is identical and linear. Since it's not the proper comparison is their comparable season in the league. Rookie year to rookie year, second year to second year. Unless you think comparing a guy in his second year in a pro league to a guy in his first is somehow fairer than worrying about who got to play an extra season of bantam at some point in his life.
Or look at it this way. Assuming both started playing hockey around age 5, then Pastrnak would have had 12 years of development to Pettersson's 13. That's a minor difference compared to Pastrnak's 1 year of experience in the Allsvenskan vs Pettersson's 0.
The least amount of disparity occurs when you compare them by pro experience, not age.
The least amount of disparity occurs when you compare them by pro experience, not age.
bottomofthefoodchain
Registered User
Continuing this discussion from previous, someone well regarded in the analytics community tweeted the other day looking at birthdate or draft year, neither method is right or wrong and I tend to agree.
They played the same amount years of bantam/midget. Pettersson got an extra season in the Allsvenskan to show his stuff, which probably saved him from going mid-late 1st round in 2016, had he been born a bit earlier.
Pasternak played 11 games in the Allsvenskan in his 16YR old season. You think that means his 17YR old season should be compared with Pettersson's 18YR old season?
Pastrnak played 11 games his first year in Allsvenskan. Pettersson played 25. That's pretty similar amounts of experience going into their second year, from which they were both drafted. At least it's much more comparable than trying to compare Pettersson's 1st year with Pastrnak's 2nd year.
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How to you figure that? And "far more impressive" lol lol boy you are either clueless or trying to be funny. In their draft yrs Pettersson not only had more points per game but also had better plus minus stats and having watched a lot of video of him looked very good doing it sooo to suggest Pastrnak or Nylander for that matter as were "way better" has no basis what so ever.
Now if you had said something like; Pastrnak was a few months younger playing in the Allsvensken in his draft year I could acknowledge it may make a difference in a few points but that would still put him behind in points and with a inferior plus minus as well. So again, how to you justify your claim his year was far more impressive than Pettersson's draft yr?
Pettersson was 16 when he started that season!!!
You go by your age when the season begins. LOL boy oh boy on the one hand you don't accept an obviously better yr by Pettersson statistically speaking when he was 6 months or so older but...it's perfectly right to compare seasons when he is 6 months younger instead? How be we just accept he was a better player statistically speaking of that there is no doubt , in their draft years with the caveat he was a bit older and leave it at that.
The fact is he will likely do just as well in the NHL as Pastrnak, Nylander, Filip Forsberg and the like.
Isn't absolute age the best benchmark? So Pettersson's draft year would be expected to be somewhere in between Pastrnak's draft year and draft+1 year.
I don't see how anyone can argue that you can't compare seasons because a player was 6 months older and then try to compare the same players when that player was 6 months younger instead.
I don't see how anyone can argue that you can't compare seasons because a player was 6 months older and then try to compare the same players when that player was 6 months younger instead.
bottomofthefoodchain
Registered User
Dude you need to inform yourself on how our hockey system works. Bantam? Midget?
You play senior hockey when you are good enough, not when you reach a certain age.
I disagree with that. I choose to look at birth year and not years in the league when comparing prospects. By no means is it the be all end all and it has its flaws for sure but it's how I choose to look at it. While I factor into my perspective on a player the amount of years in a league, if Cale Makar had of came to the WHL this year instead of playing in the AJHL I wouldn't have compared his numbers to other first year players, I'd have compared them to other late born 98 defenceman.
I get that you choose to look at it this way but I don't agree it is the better of the two approaches.
Either way you cut it you will have a disparity in their situation, the choice you have is to maximize that disparity or minimize it.
By comparing birth years you are making Pettersson 7 months younger and in his first season in the Allsvenskan vs Pastrnak being 7 months older and in his second year.
By comparing draft years you are making Pettersson 5 months older and both players are in their second season in the Allsvenskan.
Comparing birth years maximizes the disparity in their situations. Comparing draft years minimizes it.
When trying to compare players and their tracking I prefer to minimize the disparity in their situations. Clearly some do not.
Elias Pettersson
I'm not a troll
- Jan 22, 2014
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hahaha all these haters coming here just jelly their team didn't draft Pettersson. I can taste the salt
It's okay, you guys can be salty together in a few years when he scores hatties against your team.
Figure it out bud.
It's okay, you guys can be salty together in a few years when he scores hatties against your team.
Figure it out bud.
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