C Connor McDavid - Erie Otters, OHL (2015 Draft) II

[nbwingsfan]

So Crosby was the better junior player. You're making it seem that it's not possible McDavid becomes just as good in the NHL.

That's ridiculous. Him and Tavares are about on par as junior players, but anyone that watched both will tell you that McDavid is a better prospect than Tavares was and projects to be better in the future.

Sure he might project to be a better player than Tavares, but certainly not Crosby.

Once again, McDavid has shown nothing that suggests he will be as good as Crosby. This is the same debate that came up when Mackinnon was being compared last year, yet his rookie season is no where close to Crosby's.

People are just excited about the new toys, and are being manipulated by the media calling him the "next Crosby".

 

[YEGJuniorFan]

Sure he might project to be a better player than Tavares, but certainly not Crosby.

Once again, McDavid has shown nothing that suggests he will be as good as Crosby. This is the same debate that came up when Mackinnon was being compared last year, yet his rookie season is no where close to Crosby's.

People are just excited about the new toys, and are being manipulated by the media calling him the "next Crosby".

I think it was some scouts who said he was better than Crosby, but I am not positive.

 

[Future]

Sure he might project to be a better player than Tavares, but certainly not Crosby.

Once again, McDavid has shown nothing that suggests he will be as good as Crosby. This is the same debate that came up when Mackinnon was being compared last year, yet his rookie season is no where close to Crosby's.

People are just excited about the new toys, and are being manipulated by the media calling him the "next Crosby".

Why certainly not Crosby? Have you seen how talented this kid is? His tools? How smart he is? How he plays the game?

 

[Loffer]

Why certainly not Crosby? Have you seen how talented this kid is? His tools? How smart he is? How he plays the game?

This. Stop staring at the stats. The kid is unbelievable talent. He has all the tools. Just top-notch. He is definitely at Crosby's level in all his skills. I have said it before and I say it again: he is better than Crosby, anyone should see it by looking him on the ice. Forget the ****** stats: they mean nada in this case. Are you friggin' blind or something. Crosby is poor man's McDavid.

Actually - as some poster said: McDavid is combination of Giroux and Stamkos - and I will add: multipied with 100.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Why certainly not Crosby? Have you seen how talented this kid is? His tools? How smart he is? How he plays the game?

Yes, I have. It's my job to keep up to date with all major prospects in NA. And yes I have seen how talented he is, which is why I have said over and over again how McDavid will be a great player. The problem is, I've seen Crosby do everything better.

I guess I could ask you the same thing? Have seen how talented this kid is? Fact of the matter is that Crosby has/had better tools. Crosby is/was smarter. Crosby does/did play the game better than McDavid did.

He is just a better player. Everything you are saying right now is just telling me you never watched or don't remember Crosby when he was 16. If this is how you react when you see McDavid, I cant imagine your O-face if you would have seen the things Crosby could do.

 

[nbwingsfan]

This. Stop staring at the stats. The kid is unbelievable talent. He has all the tools. Just top-notch. He is definitely at Crosby's level in all his skills. I have said it before and I say it again: he is better than Crosby, anyone should see it by looking him on the ice. Forget the ****** stats: they mean nada in this case. Are you friggin' blind or something. Crosby is poor man's McDavid.

Actually - as some poster said: McDavid is combination of Giroux and Stamkos - and I will add: multipied with 100.

I can't tell if this is sarcasm. If it's not, then I can't wait to bring up this post when McDavid hits the NHL and people realize that he is no better than Mackinnon.

 

[Patmac40]

I can't tell if this is sarcasm. If it's not, then I can't wait to bring up this post when McDavid hits the NHL and people realize that he is no better than Mackinnon.

How exactly isn't he better than Mackinnon?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Alright I normally wouldn't spend the time to do this but you appear to be having a real hard time with reading. So lets do this.

The point remains the same that Crosby, along with players of his calibre, were dominant from day one of being on the ice

Wrong. Mario Lemieux is a perfect example of this. He trailed the league's leading scorer by 66 points his rookie year in the Q

There are actually very few reasons as to how you can say he will be as good as Crosby is.

Where did I say he will be as good as Crosby?

You're basing your entire arguments on "what if's".

Thats the whole *** point! Since McDavid has yet to reach his draft year, you MUST deal in what-ifs, so long as the scenario can be shown to be realistic with historic data. Which I've done. Based on development curves of top prospects of the past, its not only possible, its likely that McDavid will score at a 2.2-2.8ppg rate in his draft year.

Consider the analog of Jason Spezza, a similarly "exceptional" status CHLer. His 15 and 16 yo seasons were nearly identical in terms of ppg (1.06 and 1.17), but it was his 17 yo season where he exploded to a pace of 2.07ppg. McDavid's 15 yo was 1.05ppg, and in his 16 yo season he is currently at 1.67ppg. If they have analogous development curves, this would suggest that McDavid hit upwards of 2.5ppg.

Crosby and McDavid were around the same physical development when they were 16

No, they weren't, not even close.

Crosby at 16 - 5'10 185lbs
McDavid at 16 - 6'0 185lbs (which is generous!)

You are putting WAY too much stock into physical development

If its irrelevant than why even mention it in your post above?

never mind how incredibly hard (near impossible) it will be for McDavid to put on these "20 pounds" you suggest

Here is the funny part. You literally put quotations around "20 pounds". Lets's see what I posted:

If he puts on 15 lbs of muscle this offseason

Reading comprehension for the win!

The biggest difference between their rookie year and second year is learning how to play the game, not just getting bigger.

Then why did it take 3 OHL seasons for Jason Spezza to dominate, and only 1 season for Patrick Kane (both their 17 yo seasons btw)? You keep dealing in absolutes, refusing to accept that each player develops and adapts differently.

As I already mentioned, Lemieux is the exception, not the norm, from a development standpoint.

How many examples of do I need to show you to prove to you that Lemieux's curve from 16 to 17 was indeed not an exception?

In addition to my previous list:
Modano: 121% increase in PPG
Bobby Hull: 213% increase in PPG
Nolan: 101% increase in PPG
Hawerchuk: 86% increase in PPG
Turgeon: 61% increase in PPG

 

[nbwingsfan]

How exactly isn't he better than Mackinnon?

They have many of the same qualities, and am very willing to bet that McDavid and Mackinnon end up on the same level in the NHL.

Both have been compared to Crosby, neither will ever be as good as Crosby (or Malkin, or a peak Ovi)

 

[MonkeyBusiness]

They have many of the same qualities, and am very willing to bet that McDavid and Mackinnon end up on the same level in the NHL.

Both have been compared to Crosby, neither will ever be as good as Crosby (or Malkin, or a peak Ovi)

How can this even be used as an argument that Mcdavid will be on the same level as Mackinnon? Also, Mcdavid doesn't look anything like Mackinnon stylistically. The Mackinnon to Crosby comparisons came about 2 years before the draft and were probably only because of the paths they took. Same home town, going to Minnesota to play Midget hockey. But the problem with that comparison was that Mackinnon didn't look like Crosby as a hockey player, Mcdavid actually does.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Alright I normally wouldn't spend the time to do this but you appear to be having a real hard time with reading. So lets do this.



Wrong. Mario Lemieux is a perfect example of this. He trailed the league's leading scorer by 66 points his rookie year in the Q



Where did I say he will be as good as Crosby?



Thats the whole *** point! Since McDavid has yet to reach his draft year, you MUST deal in what-ifs, so long as the scenario can be shown to be realistic with historic data. Which I've done. Based on development curves of top prospects of the past, its not only possible, its likely that McDavid will score at a 2.2-2.8ppg rate in his draft year.

Consider the analog of Jason Spezza, a similarly "exceptional" status CHLer. His 15 and 16 yo seasons were nearly identical in terms of ppg (1.06 and 1.17), but it was his 17 yo season where he exploded to a pace of 2.07ppg. McDavid's 15 yo was 1.05ppg, and in his 16 yo season he is currently at 1.67ppg. If they have analogous development curves, this would suggest that McDavid hit upwards of 2.5ppg.



No, they weren't, not even close.

Crosby at 16 - 5'10 185lbs
McDavid at 16 - 6'0 185lbs (which is generous!)


If its irrelevant than why even mention it in your post above?



Here is the funny part. You literally put quotations around "20 pounds". Lets's see what I posted:

​

Reading comprehension for the win!



Then why did it take 3 OHL seasons for Jason Spezza to dominate, and only 1 season for Patrick Kane (both their 17 yo seasons btw)? You keep dealing in absolutes, refusing to accept that each player develops and adapts differently.




How many examples of do I need to show you to prove to you that Lemieux's curve from 16 to 17 was indeed not an exception?

In addition to my previous list:
Modano: 121% increase in PPG
Bobby Hull: 213% increase in PPG
Nolan: 101% increase in PPG
Hawerchuk: 86% increase in PPG
Turgeon: 61% increase in PPG

All of this is fine and dandy, but I'll ask again, why was Crosby able to put up such better numbers than everyone else in his rookie season at 16, yet McDavid cannot do so even during his second season?

McDavid is also closer to 5'11, as was Crosby, and they were the same weight. So yes they were actually very close to the same size.

I bring up that physical development is not nearly as big of a deal as you think it is because you keep using that as your main argument as to why McDavid can be better than Crosby.

You mentioned that McDavid could realistically put up 170 points next year? When was the last time a player put up 170? Especially at 17? Remember when many posters thought that Tavares could put up 100 goals after his 70 goal season? The reality is that there is a huge difference between 2pts per game and 3.There is a reason many players put up 2pts/gm yet no one can do 3.

You're right. Theres a chance McDavid can be better than Crosby and be the best player in the NHL. There's also a CHANCE that Drouin, Mac, Reinhart, Barkov, Kucherov, Mantha, etc. could be better than Crosby.

Are any of them realistic? Nope, because none of them have shown that they can be better.
Do many of them have the tools? Absolutely, especially someone like Drioun.

The reality is that none have been able to put it all together the same way Crosby and Malkin and Ovi have, and I strongly doubt MacDavid will be able to do so either.

Until McDavid shows me he can even dominate the CHL in his first few years, then it's going to be doubtful he can dominate the NHL in his first few years.

 

[Patmac40]

They have many of the same qualities, and am very willing to bet that McDavid and Mackinnon end up on the same level in the NHL.

Both have been compared to Crosby, neither will ever be as good as Crosby (or Malkin, or a peak Ovi)

Which qualities exactly? They are very different, stylistically. Mackinnon's comparison to Crosby was more so due to the fact that they took an almost identical path to the NHL. McDavid's comparison is more so based on the fact that he's the best prospect since Crosby. McDavid is also putting up a much high ppg than Mackinnon did in his 16 year old season.

McDavid is also closer to 5'11, as was Crosby, and they were the same weight. So yes they were actually very close to the same size.

This is from February

He's a solid inch taller than Crosby and maybe a tad more. He's closer to 6'1" than 5'11". And that's a very generous 185lbs that he's listed at. Crosby's physical development ahead of his peers was a huge reason why he was able to be more successful in junior.

 

[Hero]

The Q is always a higher scoring league.

Look with your eyes not with the stat sheet.

But so far, I don't see McDavid being better than Crosby.

 

[nbwingsfan]

The Q is always a higher scoring league.

Look with your eyes not with the stat sheet.

But so far, I don't see McDavid being better than Crosby.

The Q being a higher scoring league (which btw is not true anymore) has nothing to do with Crosby being 60 points better than anyone in his OWN league during his second season.

Literally you just said the exact same thing I've been saying all along. McDavid is great, as in Tavares, Giroux, Stamkos great, but he hasn't shown anything so far that suggests he will ever be as good as Crosby.

Like I said, unitil McDavid can dominate the CHL the way Crosby did, then there is no reason to believe that he can do it in the NHL.

Only on HF is someone being compared on the same level to Tavares a bad thing.

 

[nbwingsfan]

This is from February

He's a solid inch taller than Crosby and maybe a tad more. He's closer to 6'1" than 5'11". And that's a very generous 185lbs that he's listed at. Crosby's physical development ahead of his peers was a huge reason why he was able to be more successful in junior.

You act like being one inch taller makes such a difference. It doesnt, and in reality, him being taller is actually an advantage.

Crosby at 16 years was still much smaller than most players in the Q. Which as I've said before, physical development from ages 15-17 really don't mean anything when it comes to putting up points, its just adapting to the league.

 

[Patmac40]

You act like being one inch taller makes such a difference. It doesnt, and in reality, him being taller is actually an advantage.

Crosby at 16 years was still much smaller than most players in the Q. Which as I've said before, physical development from ages 15-17 really don't mean anything when it comes to putting up points, its just adapting to the league.

I'm not saying anything by it. You said he's closer to 5'11" and I'm just saying that's not the case.

Crosby wasn't much smaller than his peers in the Q actually. Much stronger than your average rookie. He was always stocky even when he played bantam and midget. His development, in his lower body especially, helped Crosby be able to play the way he does without getting pushed around by older guys in the Q which allowed him to put up more points. This is far from the only reason why he put up the points that he did but it helped a fair amount.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

You act like being one inch taller makes such a difference. It doesnt, and in reality, him being taller is actually an advantage.

Crosby at 16 years was still much smaller than most players in the Q. Which as I've said before, physical development from ages 15-17 really don't mean anything when it comes to putting up points, its just adapting to the league.

Then explain Jason spezza. You're inability to read and respond to posts is tiring.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Then explain Jason spezza. You're inability to read and respond to posts is tiring.

What point are you trying to make with Spezza? First of all the teams he played on his first 2 years were laughable. Second, as I mentioned many times, the biggest development step for players is their ability to adapt to a league, to realize that some of the things they did in Bantam and Midget won't work anymore. Maybe this took Spezza longer to realize?

Again, not sure why you're bringing up Spezza since he's his peak is right around where I expect McDavid to end up as an NHL player.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Then explain Jason spezza. You're inability to read and respond to posts is tiring.

As I mentioned, I've been part of the CHL circle since I was 17, and player development is now part of my job, so I have plenty of experience in how the CHL system works. I just barely missed playing against Crosby, but I had ample opportunities to watch him. I have yet to see the dominating aspect of Crosby's game in McDavid.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

What point are you trying to make with Spezza? First of all the teams he played on his first 2 years were laughable. Second, as I mentioned many times, the biggest development step for players is their ability to adapt to a league, to realize that some of the things they did in Bantam and Midget won't work anymore. Maybe this took Spezza longer to realize?

Again, not sure why you're bringing up Spezza since he's his peak is right around where I expect McDavid to end up as an NHL player.

So do you exclude this possibility for mcdavid?

 

[nbwingsfan]

So do you exclude this possibility for mcdavid?

I do not. perhaps you missed how I said that truly elite players often dominate from the get go, it doesn't take them 3 years to dominate their league.

McDavid is now in his second season, and he's not even the top point getter on his team, let alone dominating the league. Which AGAIN does not mean he's a bad player, just that he has not shown me that he will be one of the top 3 players in the NHL.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

As I mentioned, I've been part of the CHL circle since I was 17, and player development is now part of my job, so I have plenty of experience in how the CHL system works. I just barely missed playing against Crosby, but I had ample opportunities to watch him. I have yet to see the dominating aspect of Crosby's game in McDavid.

That makes you no more qualified to evaluate talent, sorry.

In terms of puck skills and speed, mcdavid is superior at the same age. Crosby's ability to find open ice was better and he was more balanced and much stronger, allowing him to win more battles down low and extend his time with the puck.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I do not. perhaps you missed how I said that truly elite players often dominate from the get go, it doesn't take them 3 years to dominate.

Yea, tell that to Mario.

 

[nbwingsfan]

That makes you no more qualified to evaluate talent, sorry.

In terms of puck skills and speed, mcdavid is superior at the same age. Crosby's ability to find open ice was better and he was more balanced and much stronger, allowing him to win more battles down low and extend his time with the puck.

Considering I played in the league, went to school for it and am now hired by a very successful franchise to evaluate and develop talent, I'm going to say that yes I am actually much more qualified than most people at evaluating talent. Sorry.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Yea, tell that to Mario.

Mario did dominate his league is his second year. Only two players had more points, and one was Pat Lafontaine, who was one of the best NHL players of his generation, the other being a prototypical small 20 year old forward in the Q during the 80's. There was a big drop after those 3.