Post-Game Talk: Buffy the Panther Slayer | Jets win 3-2 in OT

[SensibleGuy]

Buff is a huge man. He's never going to be svelte. Theres no way a guy his size can put in the kind of minutes he does and not be in fantastic conditioning. This whole "fat Buff" thing needs to be taken out to the shed and shot becuase its way over-blown.

As far as Pavs goes, I'm sorry folks but theres just no denying the stats. Every other goalie in the league lives and dies by the same statistical breakdowns. Why is Pavs the one who the stats don't apply to? The Jets are giving up less shots per game than more than half the other teams in the league and yet our number one goalie has worse stats than pretty much all of them. If you feel that he's facing better chances than everybody else, perhaps try and prove that somehow?

 

[Grind]

Buff's conditioning and off season workout habits need to improve before he can take the next step to becoming elite NHL D man.

honestly, i think he can reach it without doing that. His numbers this year have him very close to it already, and his defensive play looks much much better.

Even with his slow start, his production rate would still have him in the top 10 dmen in the league last season with a much improved +/- (as opposed to last season being second but having a bad +/-

 

[truck]

except what your suggesting has never happened for more then one season....ever

research has shown the most a coach/system can improve a goaly is about .08 (I think) in sv%. That might ahve been .008 actually...

every time you see a goaly move teams and put up an unusually high sv %, it come back down the following year.

It was .008 and that was before Brian Elliott, Clemmenson and Theodore regressed beyond the point of garbage.

 

[Positive]

The Jets must give up the worst/most great scoring chances in the league. They leave their goalies out to dry so much. Put Pavs on Boston or STL and his save percentage would be .930 or bring Rask in here and he'd be .905 right now too. Those teams limit those chances in the prime scoring areas. That is the one thing going into next year I think we really need to tighten down on to become a playoff team.

And what if he were on a Columbus, or a Florida? Then what would he be? .850?

There are teams with better defenses than the Jets and teams with worse defenses. The Jets are 16th in the league for shots against. They are the 11th least penalized team in the league. For goals against, they are 22nd.

Since we actually incur less penalties than average, allow average shots and also have now killed what...24 straight penalties? Does that sound like a team that has 'the worst/one of the worst defenses in the league'? It's groundless. Why? Because they sometimes have defensive breakdowns? Well every team does. Because they sometimes get caught scrambling? Every team does. We just don't observe it and magnify it, because we're not watching other team's games. If you can say anything about the Jets defense, you can say it's...an ordinary NHL defense.

 

[sipowicz]

Buff is a huge man. He's never going to be svelte. Theres no way a guy his size can put in the kind of minutes he does and not be in fantastic conditioning. This whole "fat Buff" thing needs to be taken out to the shed and shot becuase its way over-blown.

Never thought much of Buff's conditioning until I saw him in a post game interview last night, man the guy needs a bra.

 

[truck]

except what your suggesting has never happened for more then one season....ever

research has shown the most a coach/system can improve a goaly is about .08 (I think) in sv%. That might ahve been .008 actually...

every time you see a goaly move teams and put up an unusually high sv %, it come back down the following year.

It was .008 and that was before Brian Elliott, Clemmenson and Theodore regressed beyond the point of garbage.

 

[SensibleGuy]

No matter how much he works at it, he's just one of those guys. Body type is tough to change...

 

[Stej]

The Jets must give up the worst/most great scoring chances in the league. They leave their goalies out to dry so much. Put Pavs on Boston or STL and his save percentage would be .930 or bring Rask in here and he'd be .905 right now too. Those teams limit those chances in the prime scoring areas. That is the one thing going into next year I think we really need to tighten down on to become a playoff team.

This has been proven false, both by the numbers Grind quoted and by some other stats that someone else (maybe Garret?) quoted which showed that the Jets actually allow less shots within a certain proximity of the net than the average team. I can't recall the details and I'm on my phone so too lazy to look it up.

It is my opinion that Pavs is bad positionally and bad at tracking pucks. I also believe he commits too early on certain plays. Ironically, it is those bad traits that actually make him look better than he is, when he is able to scramble back in position to make a big save. My other concerns about Pavs are his conditioning, his puck playing ability, and his ability to stay cool under pressure (frankly he's a mental midget in shootouts and on breakaways).

So to those of you talking about passing the "eye test", I guess my response to you is that my eyes see something different than yours and I get the luxury of having the numbers back me up.

All of that said, there's no doubt that he played well yesterday and I'm continually hoping that he can prove me wrong on all the other flaws that I see in his game. I would LOVE to be wrong.

 

[Positive]

Never thought much of Buff's conditioning until I saw him in a post game interview last night, man the guy needs a bra.

Well, conditioning doesn't really necessarily equate to muscle tone/body shape. He's just an endomorph. I would think his cardio is actually pretty good relatively speaking. Just got some moobs.

 

[SensibleGuy]

Yeah that's become my feeling about Pavs too - he makes "circus saves" that just wouldn't have to be circus saves for a really elite tender. He's not been doing that as much this year as last. He was rock solid last night ftmp and thats great, but he needs to be doing that on a more consistant basis. Ironically the team gave up more shots last night than they have almost all season...

 

[truck]

This has been proven false, both by the numbers Grind quoted and by some other stats that someone else (maybe Garret?) quoted which showed that the Jets actually allow less shots within a certain proximity of the net than the average team. I can't recall the details and I'm on my phone so too lazy to look it up.

It is my opinion that Pavs is bad positionally and bad at tracking pucks. I also believe he commits too early on certain plays. Ironically, it is those bad traits that actually make him look better than he is, when he is able to scramble back in position to make a big save. My other concerns about Pavs are his conditioning, his puck playing ability, and his ability to stay cool under pressure (frankly he's a mental midget in shootouts and on breakaways).

So to those of you talking about passing the "eye test", I guess my response to you is that my eyes see something different than yours and I get the luxury of having the numbers back me up.

All of that said, there's no doubt that he played well yesterday and I'm continually hoping that he can prove me wrong on all the other flaws that I see in his game. I would LOVE to be wrong.

Conditioning:

After 2 days off Pav's save percentage is close to .930

With more or less rest his save percentage is close to .900

Those are career numbers too.

 

[SensibleGuy]

Well, conditioning doesn't really necessarily equate to muscle tone/body shape. He's just an endomorph. I would think his cardio is actually pretty good relatively speaking. Just got some moobs.

Yeah basically. I mean in order for him to get in any way "cut" he'd have to go on some sort of ridiculous body-building program which probably wouldn't positively impact his game at all (might negatively impact it actually.) Don't forget, muscle weighs more than fat...

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

If Pavs plays the way he has for the last ~10-15 games I couldn't care less about his save percentage. A goalie's job is to give their team a chance to win, not post a certain save percentage. Pavs has been doing that consistently after his awful start.

 

[Positive]

Yeah basically. I mean in order for him to get in any way "cut" he'd have to go on some sort of ridiculous body-building program which probably wouldn't positively impact his game at all (might negatively impact it actually.) Don't forget, muscle weighs more than fat...

I agree. Going by personal experience only, the times I was in my best condition, were actually times where I didn't have great visible muscle tone or great 'shape' besides my legs. But my cardio was great...running full and half-marathons regularly, 6 minute miles. Conversely there were years where I was doing tons of weights, and very little cardio, just bulking up for fun and aesthetics. I looked big and toned but I'd have to say I actually was less athletic with the big pecs than without.

 

[Skidooboy]

1. Does anyone else notice that for a tall man, Pavs plays really low in the net. He is always down in the butterfly, and more importantly he "hunches" down with his upper body. He leaves a lot of room in the upper half of the net I know it's small sample size but the big Cubano Monty is a much more up and down kind of goalie to my eye. He's down when he needs to be and the Pops back up on his feet to watch the play or shift position. Then he flops Down again for the save. Back up again. Mobile , aggressive. He has better ability to move out /drop back as the play progresses. I prefer his style of play.

Stick handling. Pavs should never ever play the puck. He is by far the worst stick handling goalie in the league. Every single time he tries to move the puck it ends up on the half boards on an opponents stick. Usual a scoring chance and often leads to a confused d squad a d ultimately a goal. Awful!!!

I'm very worried about this team with Pavs as our starter.

 

[ps241]

If Pavs plays the way he has for the last ~10-15 games I couldn't care less about his save percentage. A goalie's job is to give their team a chance to win, not post a certain save percentage. Pavs has been doing that consistently after his awful start.

Ironically over the last 10 games IIRC Pavs save % has been really good (too lazy to look it up) which is why I think it's an important stat.....that's kind of the point.


garret did a very nice break down of the Jets win loss record this season when Pavs save % was better than .900 and below .900 and it lends credence to the fact this stat matters even though it is a small sample size.

 

[Skidooboy]

Re buff. I'm a big man myself. Absolute lowest I weighed was 250-260. I could run flat out for 30 mins and kickbox a night long. I was never "cut" still had moobs and a gut, I did sit-ups and crunches till my guts ached never made a difference. My instructor laughed when I complained. He said he woul glady give up his abbs for my size. "Some people just don't have the body type or the genes to be ripped all the time" sur I could have gone on a super diet and pumped iron and steroids like Schwartzenegger until I was cut but that wouldn't have helped my boxing, nor made me "fitter".

 

[garret9]

The Jets must give up the worst/most great scoring chances in the league. They leave their goalies out to dry so much. Put Pavs on Boston or STL and his save percentage would be .930 or bring Rask in here and he'd be .905 right now too. Those teams limit those chances in the prime scoring areas. That is the one thing going into next year I think we really need to tighten down on to become a playoff team.

Sorry but if you look above this is a false...

I see it no way that the Jets' can be (slightly) above average in back-to-back seasons:
*Shots against per minute (this has slightly fallen below average by one spot)
*Possession time
*Out-chancing opponents
*Percentage of shots within the "danger-zone" perimeter
But, still be worse in the league (and somehow by a ridiculous margin) in the quality of shots...
It's not possible that a team can be defensively average at everything but absolutely terrible at one thing.

Besides, defensive systems very marginally improve SV%:
Tippett only raises goalies on average by 0.006
http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/8/11/the-dave-tippett-effect

Hitchcock only raises goalies on average by 0.004
http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/7/17/goaltenders-with-and-without-ken-hitchcock

 

[King Woodballs]

Buff's conditioning and off season workout habits need to improve before he can take the next step to becoming elite NHL D man.

He is already elite

 

[Jet]

The Jets must give up the worst/most great scoring chances in the league. They leave their goalies out to dry so much. Put Pavs on Boston or STL and his save percentage would be .930 or bring Rask in here and he'd be .905 right now too. Those teams limit those chances in the prime scoring areas. That is the one thing going into next year I think we really need to tighten down on to become a playoff team.

If you do some research you will find that this assertion is absolutely with out fact. We have defensive lapses but we are far from the only team.

What do you think Pavelec's sv% would be if he played on the Oilers?

At any rate, it now sounds like I am a Pavelec hater and want him run out of town but that simply isn't the case. I'm just trying to point out black and white facts about the guy and either people want to see it or they don't.

What I REALLY wish would happen is Pavelec get more fit, get consistent, and shut me up. It won't change the facts that I, garret and others have proven here over and over again, but the point will become moot.

 

[Andy6]

It's not possible that a team can be defensively average at everything but absolutely terrible at one thing.

It might not be very likely but it's certainly possible. No one would be shocked to hear, for example, that a team that was average at all defensive categories gave up the most goals in overtime, or that Pavs was average at most things but was the worst in the league at the shootout.

What about the clustering of shots on goal / shots at the net? Does anyone compare goalies on teams that allow clusters of shots rather than shots distributed more evenly through the game? If the Jets have (as I believe they do) a certain type of defence that is offensively skilled and talented (but largely young and inexperienced) I could see them allowing relatively few shots overall, as they manage to keep the puck in the offensive zone for extended periods and often successfully make bold plays to get the puck out of their own end, but, at the same time, experience several major breakdowns during a game in which (due to inexperience and a desire to make complicated rather than simple dump-it-out plays) they allow sustained pressure and lots of shots and threats that tend to wear a goalie down.

 

[garret9]

It might not be very likely but it's certainly possible. No one would be shocked to hear, for example, that a team that was average at all defensive categories gave up the most goals in overtime, or that Pavs was average at most things but was the worst in the league at the shootout.

What about the clustering of shots on goal / shots at the net? Does anyone compare goalies on teams that allow clusters of shots rather than shots distributed more evenly through the game? If the Jets have (as I believe they do) a certain type of defence that is offensively skilled and talented (but largely young and inexperienced) I could see them allowing relatively few shots overall, as they manage to keep the puck in the offensive zone for extended periods and often successfully make bold plays to get the puck out of their own end, but, at the same time, experience several major breakdowns during a game in which (due to inexperience and a desire to make complicated rather than simple dump-it-out plays) they allow sustained pressure and lots of shots and threats that tend to wear a goalie down.

Not to the extreme that it shoulders the weight of responsibility off of Pavelec.

Again, it's not just quantity but quality factor is above average too. Jets' have pushed an above average percentage of shots to far perimeter.

What if Pavelec was on an obviously worse defensive team:
in place of CBJ Steve Mason who has posted similar numbers than Pavelec and a year younger
in place of EDM Devan Dubnyk who has consistently posted better numbers than Pavelec and only a year older

 

[Positive]

If you do some research you will find that this assertion is absolutely with out fact. We have defensive lapses but we are far from the only team.

What do you think Pavelec's sv% would be if he played on the Oilers?

At any rate, it now sounds like I am a Pavelec hater and want him run out of town but that simply isn't the case. I'm just trying to point out black and white facts about the guy and either people want to see it or they don't.

What I REALLY wish would happen is Pavelec get more fit, get consistent, and shut me up. It won't change the facts that I, garret and others have proven here over and over again, but the point will become moot.

Exactly. Pavelec isn't some unique case that should be handled with kid gloves. He should be held accountable, for the most part, to the same metrics that every other goaltender in the NHL is.

Plenty of goaltenders carry their teams on their backs for a game or two, which Pavy did last night. Plenty of teams have defensive breakdowns in their own end, and miscommunications that lead to goals. There are highlight reel saves every single night on TSN involving goaltenders that are not Pavy. There are ordinary goals shown every single night that are the result of a breakdown.

I would wager most fans of any bubble team believes their defense to be atrocious half the time a goal is scored against them. I could probably visit 15 different team forums right now and find a thread about how their defense is supposedly bottom of the barrel. It's just fan perception.

 

[Lynk]

If you do some research you will find that this assertion is absolutely with out fact. We have defensive lapses but we are far from the only team.

What do you think Pavelec's sv% would be if he played on the Oilers?

At any rate, it now sounds like I am a Pavelec hater and want him run out of town but that simply isn't the case. I'm just trying to point out black and white facts about the guy and either people want to see it or they don't.

What I REALLY wish would happen is Pavelec get more fit, get consistent, and shut me up. It won't change the facts that I, garret and others have proven here over and over again, but the point will become moot.

FWIW, I agree with you.

 

[garret9]

FWIW, I agree with you.

As do I.

I guess I get frustrated because two things:

1) I really think Pavelec has an immense amount of raw talent and could be consistently above average

2) I have a pet-peeve of common misconceptions... (aside: that's why I tend to defend a lot of the "bubble" or middle players, as they usually get shat on for not being the superstars and not being the blue collar bottom guys)