Buffalo Bills Talk 2017 part 2 (9-7): Next - The Offseason with First Round Picks at 21 & 22

[Buffaloed]

The snow staying to the south of the city was a win. Everything else was a bonus.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Arizona up 12-7 with the ball late against Tennessee. I went to NYT's predictor (it's not the best because it doesn't use all that many simulations), but when locking the Bills in at 9-7 with wins over Miami and a loss to New England an Arizona win here increases the Bills playoff chances from about 47% to about 57%. Big finish here.

EDIT: Cards win!

 

[26CornerBlitz]

WATCH: SEAN MCDERMOTT'S POSTGAME SPEECH (0:51)

Check out Sean McDermott's message to the team after the 13-7 overtime win over the Indianapolis Colts.

TOP 3 THINGS WE LEARNED FROM BILLS-COLTS

Shady had a landmark day, Peterman and Benjamin showed progress, but both were also injured Sunday.

WHAT THEY'RE SAYING: BILLS REACT TO WIN IN SNOWSTORM OVER COLTS

RB LeSean McCoy, QB Joe Webb, DT Kyle Williams, WR Deonte Thompson and other discuss the fans support in the overtime win over Indianapolis.

SEAN MCDERMOTT: "BIG TIME PERFORMANCE" (7:26)

Head Coach Sean McDermott addressed the media after 13 to 7 victory over the Colts topics include; the extreme weather during the game, running the ball with RB LeSean McCoy, and QB Joe Webb stepping up.

Do the Bills have a shot at the playoffs? (1:23)

At 7-6 with three games remaining against divisional opponents, Jeff Saturday assesses the chances that Buffalo snaps the franchise's postseason drought.

 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[Onslow]

I don’t really care about the Eagles but that sucks about Wentz.

 

[Ralonzo]

Wrong thread, I blame the snow

 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[enthusiast]

just ran thru the old playoff machine being entirely honest with who I expected to win games, and Bills grabbed the 6 spot in a tiebreak over KC and TEN at 9-7.

Wildcard @ Jags, book it

 

[26CornerBlitz]

WATCH: MCCOY STRONG IN SNOW (2:31)

Buffalo's run game was impressive in the snow gaining 227 yards in the 13-7 to win over the Colts.

The Buffalo Bills came away with a 13-7 overtime victory over the Indianapolis Colts, but now have a compelling decision to make if both players are healthy... who do they start, Tyrod Taylor, or Nathan Peterman? 7ABC's Joe Buscaglia and Matthew Fairburn of NYUpstate.com discuss that, Sean McDermott's decision to punt in overtime, and the craziness of the game being called the Bills "snowvertime" win.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

just ran thru the old playoff machine being entirely honest with who I expected to win games, and Bills grabbed the 6 spot in a tiebreak over KC and TEN at 9-7.

Wildcard @ Jags, book it

End the draught to go play a great defense and get embarrassed by Doug Marrone? Ya, I still take it.

 

[SundherDome]

End the draught to go play a great defense and get embarrassed by Doug Marrone? Ya, I still take it.

I hope for nothing more than the Jags and we flat out embarrass them and then head to Pit.

 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[JThorne]

For those hoping Tennessee falters, Mariota had some knee issues today.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Meeehhhh, looks like another December where we count on other teams to lose games they should win.

Jacksonville gets to 10-6 with wins over the 49ers and Texans.

Baltimore gets to 10-6 with wins over the Browns, Colts, and Bengals.

Tennessee gets to 11-5 with wins over Arizona, SF, Jax ....

All seems unlikely. Even if we win out, could we be out on tiebreakers?

10-6 ain't happening, but with Tennessee's loss to Arizona today, there are only way a couple ways we could miss the playoffs at 10-6. One is if Tennessee wins the AFC South (at 11-5 or 10-6), Jacksonville finishes 2nd at 10-6 or 11-5 while beating Houston, and Baltimore wins out to get to 11-5 OR loses to Pittsburgh or Cleveland to get to 10-6. Then the Bills lose tiebreakers H2H vs. Jacksonville (common opponents), Baltimore (common opponents), or both of them combined (JAX wins 3-way tiebreaker via conference record, then BAL beats BUF on common opponents. But this scenario assumes a Tennessee win over Jacksonville in the last week of the season, and even there it tightens considerably if the Titans can't get past the Rams in LA (which you have to think they would be heavy underdogs for).

In terms of tiebreakers at 9-7, there's an interesting dynamic brewing in the AFC West. If there is only one other team in the tiebreaker and it's from the AFC West, Buffalo obviously wants it to be anybody but Los Angeles. But the only way this would matter is if one of Baltimore or Tennessee completely falls off a cliff and finishes 8-8. Otherwise, one of those teams will end up in what likely will be a 3 or 4 team tiebreaker including some combination of KC/SD/OAK, BUF, TEN/JAX, BAL. Here, KC being the 9-7 AFC West team would be a disaster, because their strength of victory is much stronger than any other contenders, and our H2H win obviously wouldn't matter anymore. Los Angeles' strength of victory and Oakland's conference record are both poor. In a multiple team tiebreak, the Bills can actually get out of the tiebreaker (and in most situations, will) on strength of victory before LA's win over them comes into play.

 

[aceface33]

How about this scenario. Baltimore closes out the win vs. Pittsburgh tonight then New England beats them next weekend, thus clinching home field for the playoffs. Then Sean McDermott's faith based coaching impressed Belichek so much he doesn't dress Gronk for the game and pulls out the rest of New England's starters at halftime. Bills run the table and finish 10-6. Playoffs baby!

 

[vcv]

Every year... "oh yeah the AFC is weak this year. 8-8 or 9-7 could make the playoffs." All these teams outside the top 3 are garbage.

Sigh.

 

[misterchainsaw]

For your viewing pleasure: the current state of every possible Bills tiebreaker:

At 9-7
2 way tiebreakers:
vs BAL: If Baltimore loss is to IND or CIN and Bills loss is to NE, the Bills currently win the tiebreaker on strength of victory. If BAL loss is to CLE or Bills loss is to MIA, BAL wins.
vs JAX: Loss (conference record)
vs TEN: Wins tiebreaker via common opponents *unless TEN loses to SF and LAR but beats JAX and still doesn't win the division.*
vs AFC West teams: Decided by games result (wins vs OAK, KC; loses vs LAC)

3 way tiebreakers:
vs BAL/JAX: Jacksonville wins tiebreaker via conference record, next spot decided by BAL/BUF head to head tiebreaker above. (Second place would make the playoffs as the 6 seed here in all cases)
vs BAL/TEN: Unless * happens (see H2H tiebreaker), tiebreaker is determined by winner of BUF/BAL H2H tiebreaker. BUF would be 2nd if BAL wins that tiebreaker. If * happens, TEN wins the tiebreaker and the winner of the BUF/BAL 2-way tiebreaker is #2. (second place makes the playoffs as the 6 seed here in all cases)
vs BAL/KC: Kansas City wins on strength of victory, #2 is decided by 2-way tiebreaker vs. BAL (not good enough unless TEN collapses)
vs BAL/LAC: Buffalo currently wins by strength of victory.
vs BAL/OAK: Decided by BUF/BAL 2-way tiebreaker - if they lose it, BUF is #2. (not good enough unless TEN collapses)
vs JAX/AFC West team: Jacksonville wins via conference record, then whoever won the head to head matchup between BUF and the AFC West team is #2. (but it probably won't matter unless Baltimore collapses)
vs TEN/AFC West team: Goes to strength of victory (Bills win vs. everyone but KC currently) - in case where KC wins, BUF is #2. However, again, if * happens, TEN wins the tiebreaker via conference record, and winner of BUF/AFC West team tiebreaker gets #2. (Again, #2 likely is not good enough unless Baltimore completely collapses).

4 way tiebreakers (two spots available in all possible 4 way tie scenarios):
vs BAL/JAX/KC: Jacksonville wins, KC #2.
vs BAL/JAX/LAC: Jacksonville wins, BUF #2 (strength of victory)
vs BAL/JAX/OAK: Jacksonville wins, winner of BUF/BAL 2-way tiebreaker #2.
vs BAL/TEN/KC: KC wins, winner of BUF/BAL/TEN tiebreaker gets #2
vs BAL/TEN/LAC: Exactly like the BUF/BAL/TEN tiebreaker.
vs BAL/TEN/OAK: Exactly like BUF/BAL/TEN tiebreaker.
*It is possible to get two AFC West teams in the wild card chase at 9-7, but Oakland would be the team involved in the tiebreakers in that case (with KC winning the division), and Oakland finishes behind Buffalo in all tiebreakers, so the 2nd AFC West team at 9-7 (LA) does not matter.

At 10-6:
2 way tiebreakers:
vs. BAL: Loss (common opponents)
vs. TEN: Win (common opponents)
vs. JAX: Loss (common opponents if losses come to HOU and TEN, conference record if a loss comes from SF)

3 way tiebreakers:
vs. BAL/TEN: BAL #1, BUF #2 (will be #6 seed)
vs. BAL/JAX: If JAX loses to HOU and TEN (beating SF) to get to 10-6, BUF currently wins a strength of victory tiebreaker. If JAX loses to SF and finishes 10-6, they will win via conference record, then BAL will be #2 via common opponents.

Also, the Bills technically currently hold the #6 spot via strength of victory over Baltimore, despite the fact that if both teams win out Baltimore would win the H2H tiebreaker.

 

[26CornerBlitz]

BILLS TODAY: WEBB QUARTERBACKS BILLS TO WEEK 14 WIN

Here's the Bills news of note for Dec. 11th.

 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[sabresfan129103]

If they would have just won 1 more game throughout the season all they would have to do to make the playoffs is beat Miami twice. Those losses to the Bengals and Jets really hurt.

 

[Vito_81]

If they would have just won 1 more game throughout the season all they would have to do to make the playoffs is beat Miami twice. Those losses to the Bengals and Jets really hurt.

That Panthers game was there for the taking as well.

 

[joshjull]

 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[26CornerBlitz]

Audio: 12-11: Sean McDermott (16:18)

QUICK HITS: QB HEALTH UPDATE

Tyrod Taylor and Nate Peterman are on the mend, Matt Milano now a starter and a thank you to Mike Tomlin and the Steelers.