Bozak Delta @ Draft

[Semantics]

Bozak is not good enough to be a 2C on a contender, and nobody is going to pay $4.2M for two seasons for a 3C with the cap possibly *decreasing*. His contract also isn't front loaded, so a Phaneuf style deal with a non-cap team won't work.

The only fit I see for him trade wise is to a bad team that needs to hit the cap floor and values his veteran presence, but we wouldn't get much in the way of picks or prospects from a team in that situation.

 

[disgruntleddave]

What Leafs management did last year was show that they believe in "tiers" of draftees instead of an absolute ranking. That's a great mindset when it comes to something as volatile as prospects.

But it doesn't necessarily mean they prefer to trade down. They traded down because when they saw the guys available with their pick, they calculated that at least one of the guys at the highest tier available would still be there if they traded down.

On the other hand, if they have a pick right at the top of a tier, trading up a small number of places to be guaranteed a prospect in the higher tier can also be the best move available. It depends on what the cost is to move up, what assets the Leafs have to deal, and what the offers are to move back. There's no point pretending that the Leafs have a one size fits all solution to the draft, where they'll only consider moving back.

That's exactly what I said. Unless there's a guy they think is going to be a huge hit (aka: he's in that higher tier for the leafs), by the time we're in a late-ish 1st round pick there will be a group of players that they like similarly. If this is the case and that group of players isn't at risk of being depleted, they trade down and get another pick while still getting someone in the tier they would have anyway.

 

[crump]

If the pens picks was 20, adding Bazak may move it up to 21, possibly 22.

 

[Mad Brills*]

Bozak screams shorter bad contract coming back and a pick.

 

[indigobuffalo]

Or salary retention at 50%. It would be off the books by the time we would need the cap space.

 

[indigobuffalo]

If we get suppose 22nd overall with Pittsburgh, Bozak (contract owed money) moves us up maybe three picks at the most...IF it's the team that needs him...

BUT...if we flip Bozak for a second in the 35 range...well that's different - picks (high picks) hold massive value at the draft - 22nd + bozak is maybe three spots up, but 22nd + 35th...that could get a pick in the 10-14 range.

2015: Phlyers get pick 24 for 29 and 61
2014: Islanders get pick 28 for 35 and 57
2012: Buffalo gets pick 13 for 21 and 42

I'm more and more open to the idea of keeping Bozak - for another year - but (and I feel the same way about Komarov) - if someone wants to pony up a 1st, even 30th overall, I pull the trigger.

24OA for 29OA+61OA
740 = (640 + 292) x penalty to move up

Penalty = 20.6%

28OA for 35OA + 57OA
660 = (550 + 330) penalty

Penalty = 25%

13OA for 21OA + 42OA
1,150 = (800 + 480) penalty

Penalty = 10.1%

There are clearly fluctuations but I if you look at more trades the number gets closer to 20%, which is why I always use that as a benchmark.

Frankly if you only get 10% that's bad asset management. But making these trades are difficult when teams need to have the right picks to make the value work. Just wanting to do it isn't enough.

 

[BlueBaron]

If the a leafs were to trade Bozak I think they'd have an easier time simply flipping him for a pick - rather than trying to move up with one.

Or maybe trading him and a second for a late first.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Bozak is not good enough to be a 2C on a contender, and nobody is going to pay $4.2M for two seasons for a 3C with the cap possibly *decreasing*. His contract also isn't front loaded, so a Phaneuf style deal with a non-cap team won't work.

The only fit I see for him trade wise is to a bad team that needs to hit the cap floor and values his veteran presence, but we wouldn't get much in the way of picks or prospects from a team in that situation.

Bozak to the Ducks makes a lot of sense.

They need scoring depth and are built to win now. There # 3 center Horcoff is underwhelming and is suspended for roughly another 15 games.

We can also take the horrible Clayton Stoner contract off their hands.