Bozak Delta @ Draft

[reboundscore]

Assuming that there was interest and fit with a trading partner, if we were to package Bozak and PIT 1st at the draft, how many spots would including Bozak in the deal allow us to move up?

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[hockeyes]

Won't work, no team that isn't solidly in the playoffs is going to trade their 1st at this stage. If they are solidly in the playoffs, that pick is probably higher than what Pitts will end up being.

 

[reboundscore]

Should clarify this trade would occur on the draft floor

 

[Pookie]

Your question is confusing.

 

[reboundscore]

We trade Bozak and PIT 1 on the draft floor for a better first round pick. If PIT pick is #20, what # pick would we get

 

[Pookie]

We trade Bozak and PIT 1 on the draft floor for a better first round pick. If PIT pick is #20, what # pick would we get

This is what is confusing. It would be a question of who needs a 29 year old 2C. Probably not a rebuilding team.

At best, maybe a middle of the pack team… so I'm going to guess 10-19?

 

[LeafsNation149]

If Pens pick was 20, Bozak would prob move it up to a 15th?

 

[reboundscore]

Thanks for the answers to this extremely hypothetical question

 

[Ovate]

Teams that want Bozak are teams that are competitive, and teams that are competitive don't have picks much higher than Pittsburgh's, if at all.

We be better off trading Bozak for picks, and then packaging that pick with Pittsburgh's 1st. In the case, we might be able to move up ~5 spots? It's hard to say what Bozaks value is.

 

[Hockey Talker29]

I would assume that including Bozak would make the overall package less valuable.

The whole premise doesn't really make sense though.

 

[reboundscore]

When I originally typed "assuming there was interest and fit", I envisioned a scenario where the team we were trading to finished way worse than expected and wasn't rebuilding.

 

[Menzinger]

If the a leafs were to trade Bozak I think they'd have an easier time simply flipping him for a pick - rather than trying to move up with one.

 

[diceman934]

I would think that trading Bozak for a pick at the draft and packaging the two picks could move us up. Say a late first or early second for Bozak and Pittsburgh pick would move us up 5-8 spots depending on the slot of Pittsburgh.

I would rather trade Bozak and get a pick and a current roster player who can play 3 or 4th line for next year. Then draft a player with his pick and the Pittsburgh's pick.

If we really liked a player and needed to move up into the top 12 it would require more then Bozak.

 

[diceman934]

When I originally typed "assuming there was interest and fit", I envisioned a scenario where the team we were trading to finished way worse than expected and wasn't rebuilding.

It really is not a viable scenario as written as the interest in Bozak over a higher pick would be almost nil....we would have to offer up a better prospect or more than Bozak.....say a D prospect and Pittsburgh's pick and a D prospect and we may find a trade partner if we can take back a some salary it would increase the odds. It would need to be 2 million more than Bozaks cap hit to make it attractive.

So Pittsburgh's pick and Bozak for a higher 1st and 6M in salary.

 

[disgruntleddave]

Assuming that there was interest and fit with a trading partner, if we were to package Bozak and PIT 1st at the draft, how many spots would including Bozak in the deal allow us to move up?

This is exactly the opposite of what leafs management has been doing. Unless there's a guy that they feel so confident is going to be a huge hit, they'd never do this. They would likely rather have #20 and #40 than #15. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if they traded down from #20 to #25 and #55 or something along those lines. That's what they did last year twice.

 

[MJ65]

I would rather take a 2nd and 3rd or just a 2nd depending on who we are trading with

 

[indigobuffalo]

Won't work, no team that isn't solidly in the playoffs is going to trade their 1st at this stage. If they are solidly in the playoffs, that pick is probably higher than what Pitts will end up being.

Then maybe trade Bozak for a late 1st and package it with the PIT pick. Though that's not technically what OP asked.

Anyways... Refer to this chart.

There's about a 20% penalty to trade up.

So hypothetically, assume the Pens pick is 20th OA, and Bozak nets us the 24th OA pick, then:

850 + 740 x (1 - 20%) = 1272

So that's enough to get around the 10th OA pick.

And those are pretty low numbers for where PIT might end up, as well as a team we trade Bozak to.

It could be worse though, the Pens could win the Cup and Bozie ends up on the Cup finalist team.

At that point the Leafs could only grab 16th OA.

And really, it's far more likely we trade down then up.

 

[indigobuffalo]

If we're trading Bozie at the draft he probably gets no better than a 2nd rounder.

Player values drop at the draft. Picks are worth more then than at any other time of the year.

If we trade Bozak it's at the deadline when player value is at the highest it can get (outside of fluctuations based on big slumps or huge hot streaks).

 

[Kurtz]

Maybe Bozak + 21 to Nashville for their 14th or thereabouts. Maybe even Mtl and their 10th (although they might slide into top 5).

I think a more interesting question is Kadri+21st. I have to think that any of Mtl, Nashville, Carolina, Arizona, Ott, Calgary or Columbus would seriously think about it.

 

[Durrr]

Pretty sure it was reported that they couldn't even get a 2nd for him at the draft last year, and even though his value has probably increased (due to 1 less contract year and producing without kessel), the time to move him is at this trade deadline.

If Vermette could fetch a 1st last year, I'd be looking for the same return from a contender this season for Bozak. Hopefully he's back and healthy.

 

[Ovate]

This is exactly the opposite of what leafs management has been doing. Unless there's a guy that they feel so confident is going to be a huge hit, they'd never do this. They would likely rather have #20 and #40 than #15. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if they traded down from #20 to #25 and #55 or something along those lines. That's what they did last year twice.

What Leafs management did last year was show that they believe in "tiers" of draftees instead of an absolute ranking. That's a great mindset when it comes to something as volatile as prospects.

But it doesn't necessarily mean they prefer to trade down. They traded down because when they saw the guys available with their pick, they calculated that at least one of the guys at the highest tier available would still be there if they traded down.

On the other hand, if they have a pick right at the top of a tier, trading up a small number of places to be guaranteed a prospect in the higher tier can also be the best move available. It depends on what the cost is to move up, what assets the Leafs have to deal, and what the offers are to move back. There's no point pretending that the Leafs have a one size fits all solution to the draft, where they'll only consider moving back.

 

[indigobuffalo]

What Leafs management did last year was show that they believe in "tiers" of draftees instead of an absolute ranking. That's a great mindset when it comes to something as volatile as prospects.

But it doesn't necessarily mean they prefer to trade down. They traded down because when they saw the guys available with their pick, they calculated that at least one of the guys at the highest tier available would still be there if they traded down.

On the other hand, if they have a pick right at the top of a tier, trading up a small number of places to be guaranteed a prospect in the higher tier can also be the best move available. It depends on what the cost is to move up, what assets the Leafs have to deal, and what the offers are to move back. There's no point pretending that the Leafs have a one size fits all solution to the draft, where they'll only consider moving back.

Generally the cost to move up is about 20% of the value of the picks required to do it. So I would tend to disagree. At this stage of the rebuild, they need as many kicks at the can as possible.

Trading up costs value. Trading down adds value. Shanahan and co. knew what they were doing from day one. And I expect more of the same.

If we look at the same scenario as in my previous post, where the Leafs have picks #20 and #24, that's a value of 1908, as opposed to the 1272 from trading up. That's the equivalent of the 30th OA pick.

Unless you're close to contending, or you really, really value a player that's fallen to where you can justify trading up to grab him, it's just bad asset management to trade up.

 

[indigobuffalo]

And for those of you wondering what the numbers from the chart I keep referencing mean, it's the value of the pick at a specific position relative to other picks, averaged over time.

So statistically speaking, for every 1OA that makes it as an NHLer, you see 1/2 that many 7OA picks hit, 1/3 16OA picks, 1/4 24OA picks, etc etc.

 

[Voodoo Child]

If we get suppose 22nd overall with Pittsburgh, Bozak (contract owed money) moves us up maybe three picks at the most...IF it's the team that needs him...

BUT...if we flip Bozak for a second in the 35 range...well that's different - picks (high picks) hold massive value at the draft - 22nd + bozak is maybe three spots up, but 22nd + 35th...that could get a pick in the 10-14 range.

2015: Phlyers get pick 24 for 29 and 61
2014: Islanders get pick 28 for 35 and 57
2012: Buffalo gets pick 13 for 21 and 42

I'm more and more open to the idea of keeping Bozak - for another year - but (and I feel the same way about Komarov) - if someone wants to pony up a 1st, even 30th overall, I pull the trigger.

 

[Durrr]

If we get suppose 22nd overall with Pittsburgh, Bozak (contract owed money) moves us up maybe three picks at the most...IF it's the team that needs him...

BUT...if we flip Bozak for a second in the 35 range...well that's different - picks (high picks) hold massive value at the draft - 22nd + bozak is maybe three spots up, but 22nd + 35th...that could get a pick in the 10-14 range.

2015: Phlyers get pick 24 for 29 and 61
2014: Islanders get pick 28 for 35 and 57
2012: Buffalo gets pick 13 for 21 and 42

I'm more and more open to the idea of keeping Bozak - for another year - but (and I feel the same way about Komarov) - if someone wants to pony up a 1st, even 30th overall, I pull the trigger.

I honestly cannot see the benefit of having Bozak here another year if they intend to re-sign Kadri (which it seems like they do, but after the Dion trade you never know).

Bozak has had a good showing this year without Kessel, but the guy is going to be 30 in 1 month. We'd do well to get something back for him while he has higher value.