Boucher Scouting: Habs: Impact of Quality of Competition on even-strength risk/reward

[just_thoughts]

Another 1-game scouting report for Habs-newcomer Daniel Briere


This is the second in an installment of one-game scouting reports for Briere. This report is from a February 16th game between the Flyers and the Montreal Canadiens. Montreal won the game by a score of 3-1. Briere played 16:56 in the game, scoring 1 goal, and finishing with a minus-2 rating.

Please keep in mind, this is only a 1-game scouting report.

http://www.boucherscouting.com/2013/07/another-1-game-scouting-report-for-habs.html

 

[just_thoughts]

Relating offensive-zone risk/reward to points per-minute played


Strong relationship among forwards, less obvious among defensemen

In the continual search for new ways of determining a player's value to there team, I've focused this post on the relationship between a player's offensive-zone risk/reward rating and the number of points they produce per-minute of even-strength ice-time.

http://www.boucherscouting.com/2013/07/relating-offensive-zone-riskreward-to.html

 

[just_thoughts]

The makings of an improved powerplay

Recovering loose-pucks and getting shots through to the net; two cornerstones of an improved PP

A large part of the Montreal Canadiens improved record in 2013 can be traced back to their powerplay. The Habs went from having the 28th-ranked powerplay in 2011-12 to having the 5th-best powerplay in 2013. The powerplay success-rate went from 14.3% to 20.7%, while the powerplay opportunities per-game increased from 3.67 to 4.22.

http://www.boucherscouting.com/2013/07/the-makings-of-improved-powerplay.html

 

[just_thoughts]

Impact of Quality of Competition on even-strength risk/reward rating

No one system can place all-encompassing value on a player's performance. But, by combining multiple systems, and including all possible tangible aspects of an individual player's play, we can push advanced stats in the right direction; a direction that provides insight as well as context.

http://www.boucherscouting.com/2013/07/impact-of-quality-of-competition-on.html

 

[overlords]

Impact of Quality of Competition on even-strength risk/reward rating

No one system can place all-encompassing value on a player's performance. But, by combining multiple systems, and including all possible tangible aspects of an individual player's play, we can push advanced stats in the right direction; a direction that provides insight as well as context.

http://www.boucherscouting.com/2013/07/impact-of-quality-of-competition-on.html

Fantastic read. One of your most interesting articles. Thanks man.

 

[just_thoughts]

Combining offensive-zone success-rates with event totals

Who's successful offensively?
Who's successful defensively?
Who's involved offensively?
Who's involved defensively?

http://www.boucherscouting.com/2013/07/combining-offensive-zone-success-rates.html

 

[THE HOFF]

I was very skeptical of the definitions, the measuring and the process with which you eliminate the variables... or isolate them. I have to say, although I remain convinced that the ''truth'' can't be entirely observed in stats, your analysis has provided some good ground work to evaluate players in certain situations with certain conditions. I was very critical of your work, and that must be a pain in the ass to hear when you put that much time and effort into something. I apologize for not having encouraged what turned out to be ''another tool in the box'' in terms of analyzing what's happening on the ice. Some editions have been better than others, but in general they served their purpose, in particular when it comes to measuring things you don't notice a lot during a game, like player's success rate in terms of forechecking. good work .

 

[dcyhabs]

Definitely a great tool. The only criticism I can think of is for players like Tinordi and Emelin. Their stats (advanced, standard, whatever) are not impressive but their impact becomes obvious when they aren't there.

I had the impression that Emelin was a drag on the team until he was hurt. Looking at Tinordi once he was called up by any statistical measure he looks weak but by forcing opposing forwards to use a little caution his impact on the game was much greater than his direct impact on the play.

 

[just_thoughts]

Impact of zone-starts on defensive-zone event totals

Quantifying the lack of d-zone involvement among most wingers.


Wingers contribute substantially less in the defensive-zone than other position-players. That said, no player should be judged without looking at their zone-starts. Where a player begins each shift determines where the bulk of their puck-possession and defensive-events take place. A player who starts a high-percentage of his shifts in the defensive-zone is less likely to contribute a positive Fenwick, Corsi or a high offensive-zone risk/reward rating.

http://www.boucherscouting.com/2013/07/impact-of-zone-starts-on-defensive-zone.html

 

[just_thoughts]

HABS: Successful offensive and defensive touches

This post will focus on the number of successful puck-possession plays each Montreal Canadiens player contributed during the 2013 regular season. Every successful puck-possession play has been included, regardless of zone.

Offensive and defensive touches are not dependant on the zone they occur in. Offensive indicates plays that occurred while the Montreal player had possession of the puck, while defensive-touches are classified as those plays that occurred in order to remove puck-possession from the opposition.

Only EVEN-STRENGTH events are included.

http://www.boucherscouting.com/2013/07/habs-successful-offensive-and-defensive.html

 

[just_thoughts]

Successful offensive and defensive touch percentages for Habs defensemen

This post will focus on visually representing each Montreal Canadiens defenseman's offensive and defensive play during the 2013 NHL season. This will be done by calculating each d-man's success-rate when attempting plays while in possession of the puck, as well as their success-rate when attempting to remove puck-possession from the opposition.

My player tracking system tracks each puck-possession event over the course of a hockey game. This provides me with the necessary data to perform these calculations.

http://www.boucherscouting.com/2013/08/successful-offensive-and-defensive.html

 

[just_thoughts]

Successful offensive and defensive touch percentages for Habs centres

This post will focus on visually representing each Montreal Canadiens centreman's offensive and defensive play during the 2013 NHL season. This will be done by calculating each player's success-rate when attempting plays while in possession of the puck, as well as their success-rate when attempting to remove puck-possession from the opposition.

My player tracking system tracks each puck-possession event over the course of a hockey game. This provides me with the necessary data to perform these calculations.

http://www.boucherscouting.com/2013/08/successful-offensive-and-defensive_4.html

 

[just_thoughts]

Offensive-zone play broken down into points, passes and shots per-minute played

Easy to understand bubblegraphs

This post will focus on how successful each Montreal Canadiens player was at creating offense in the offensive-zone. The graphs included here are visual representations of three separate variables; shots on net, completed offensive-zone passes, and points per-minute played.

These graphs give us a clear vision of each player's contribution in the offensive-zone during the 2013 NHL regular season.

http://www.boucherscouting.com/2013/08/offensive-zone-play-broken-down-into.html

 

[Price My Man Crush]

God damn, Subban & Eller were clearly ahead of anyone. That's impressive.

And these two weren't playing at the beggining of the season...wow.

 

[just_thoughts]

Two-game scouting report for newest Habs defenseman Douglas Murray

Douglas Murray was signed by the Montreal Canadiens on Thursday August, 22nd, 2013. The 6'3", 245 lbs defensemen scored 1 goal and added 5 assists through 43 games with Pittsburgh and San Jose last season. He also had 35 penalty minutes, and produced a minus-9 traditional plus/minus rating.

http://www.boucherscouting.com/2013/08/two-game-scouting-report-for-newest.html

 

[just_thoughts]

Montreal Canadiens players' scoring-chance plus/minus ratings
Subban impressive once again

Much like traditional plus/minus, scoring chance plus/minus is a simple stat. It credits a player with a minus for a scoring chance against, and a plus for a scoring chance for. An advantage scoring-chance plus/minus has over traditional plus/minus is it only credits a player with a plus or minus when he is directly involved in the play that produces the scoring chance. For obvious reasons, this puts defensemen at a substantial disadvantage, as d-men have more responsibilities in the defensive-zone; as such they will produce more scoring chance minuses than the average forward.

http://www.boucherscouting.com/2013/08/montreal-canadiens-players-scoring.html

 

[just_thoughts]

HABS: Who's giving the puck away; and in which zone

Tinordi has produced too many defensive-zone turnovers, while Gorges has excelled


This post will focus on the number of events each Montreal Canadiens player has engaged in, the zone in which those events have taken place, and the number of times they have given the puck away in each zone.

By breaking down the amount of events each player engaged in by zone, we get a solid view of where each player has impacted the game. As a rule wingers engage in the fewest defensive-events per-minute, while defensemen obviously engage in the most defensive-events per-minute.

http://www.boucherscouting.com/2013/10/habs-whos-giving-puck-away-and-in-which.html