Bottom 10? Edit: 6th worst, trending down, season over

[Soundwave]

I bet the cap stagnates this year as it adjusts to having 31 teams.

This year isn't so important but I think it will go up to 77 million. We're not doing much next summer no matter what.

It increasing in 2018-19 and 2019-20 is more key.

 

[CycloneSweep]

This year isn't so important but I think it will go up to 77 million. We're not doing much next summer no matter what.

It increasing in 2018-19 and 2019-20 is more key.

Ahh I am excited for rebuilding years 13-15.

 

[OnTheBrink]

Balance.
You don't need Mcdavid to win championships

What's frustrating though is they had the pieces to have balance along with arguably the best player in the world. Instead we pissed those pieces away and are only going to have Larsson to show for it (who I am a big fan of). Chia really shit the bed. He's lucky that Nurse has stepped up and looked so good in Sekeras absence or they could look even worse.

 

[CNeufeld]

Bet accepted... same terms as in the above post.

Pretty fun that I'll be making a Flames fan wear something pretty nasty when I win the bet.

Sounds good. See you in the spring...

C

 

[CycloneSweep]

Fun fact. We are on pace to score 58 less goals than last year.
Fifty. Eight.

 

[Aceboogie]

Nashville was shit to start last year too and rebounded. So who knows.

Typically, teams out of a playoff spot by American thanksgiving wont make the playoffs. Given we could be bottom 3 by then, it might actually be a tank year this year. If we are crap by December Id be first about the tank team. Hopefully get Dahlin + Chiarelli fired

 

[nexttothemoon]

Fun fact. We are on pace to score 58 less goals than last year.
Fifty. Eight.

By my count they are on pace to let in 59 more than last season as well.

So if you score 50+ less goals and let in 50+ more goals than you did in the previous year... that's a pretty hard regression that goes well beyond pinning it on 1 or 2 players... that's a pretty lethal team wide collapse.

A 117 goal swing in combined goals for/against would have to be one of the most dramatic 1 year drops in recent NHL history I would think.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Nashville was **** to start last year too and rebounded. So who knows.

Typically, teams out of a playoff spot by American thanksgiving wont make the playoffs. Given we could be bottom 3 by then, it might actually be a tank year this year. If we are crap by December Id be first about the tank team. Hopefully get Dahlin + Chiarelli fired

They were never this bad. They were 2-5-1 in October and at game 13,where we are now they were 5-5-3
They had 13 points we have Friggin 7.

Colorado wasn't this bad last year. After 13 games they were 6-7-0

At this point last year the worst team in the league had 10 points. Hell we had 19 points and had scored 39 goals after 13 games last season ourselves.

Calgary was 5-9-1 after 15 games and made playoffs so there is a shot still. Although that did require a 10 game win streak.

 

[McJadeddog]

They were never this bad. They were 2-5-1 in October and at game 13,where we are now they were 5-5-3
They had 13 points we have Friggin 7.

Colorado wasn't this bad last year. After 13 games they were 6-7-0

At this point last year the worst team in the league had 10 points. Hell we had 19 points and had scored 39 goals after 13 games last season ourselves.

Calgary was 5-9-1 after 15 games and made playoffs so there is a shot still. Although that did require a 10 game win streak.

Any talk of the playoffs is pretty laughable to be honest. We are on pace for one of the worst seasons in modern NHL history. THAT is how bad this team has been so far this year. If this pace continues it will be the worst Oilers season in history, and in the running for the top-20 in the NHL since 1950. We are witnessing *historic* ineptitude, all while having one of the 2 best players on the planet. So, thanks Chia?

 

[CupofOil]

Any talk of the playoffs is pretty laughable to be honest. We are on pace for one of the worst seasons in modern NHL history. THAT is how bad this team has been so far this year. If this pace continues it will be the worst Oilers season in history, and in the running for the top-20 in the NHL since 1950. We are witnessing *historic* ineptitude, all while having one of the 2 best players on the planet. So, thanks Chia?

Historic ineptitude? It's a poor start but lets pump the brakes on the hyperbole. I know it's your thing but still...

 

[Drivesaitl]

Historic ineptitude? It's a poor start but lets pump the brakes on the hyperbole. I know it's your thing but still...

Yeah, I think the Oilers turn it around but the lineup is worse than commonly thought. This team will work through this and its virtually impossible for a team with this core to be bad for too long. Just that there isn't much useful support for the core in this lineup. So I could see the club going above .500 the rest of the way but just don't know how much above. With NHL Bettman pts average team is around 92pts. So the new .500 is like that. Trouble is with the Start the Oilers had we have to be considerably better than that and get say 85pts in the remaining 69gp.
Against every club that is just playing us better. We might not hit 90 pts. If I'm calling it right now we settle somewhere between 85-90pt season and the start will be the reason we don't make the playoffs. I think it will be a tough lesson year and that the team and org will utilize that to get better.

This may sound odd, but the NHL opponents just seem better this year. Not just against us. The games are more competitive and better played. Last season seemed like an off year for a lot of clubs. Teams are just dialed in better this season and have more help, better depth, better system play and adherence etc. Only Arizona seems truly intent on sucking all year. Last year there were easily 6 teams in the NHL like that and were pretty much free bingo spaces.

 

[Canovin]

I admit I used to complain a lot and also got piled on a lot. I was afraid the Oilers will be in a situation where:
we will be a hell cap
our players are overpaid
our cupboard is getting more bare each year
to top things off we are about to miss the playoffs

Chia has built a bubble team that will contend for the playoffs and not for the cup

This is exactly what I wanted to avoid

 

[CycloneSweep]

I admit I used to complain a lot and also got piled on a lot. I was afraid the Oilers will be in a situation where:
we will be a hell cap
our players are overpaid
our cupboard is getting more bare each year
to top things off we are about to miss the playoffs

Chia has built a bubble team that will contend for the playoffs and not the cup

This is exactly what I wanted to avoid

I mean I feel similar to how you do but there are a few good spots in the last couple. Namely drafting.

Yes Pulju isn't looking the best right now but he fell into our laps. Look at all the other guys.

Yamamoto looks like he will for sure be a legit NHL guy, when is the only question. Benson was a risky pick but whenever he is healthy dude is great. Bear and Jones look like they will for sure make the NHL. Dylan Wells looks like he will be a player as well. We might finally get something out of the later rounds.

That said, I still don't trust our player development so there is still a very real possibility that we mess them up

 

[McJadeddog]

Historic ineptitude? It's a poor start but lets pump the brakes on the hyperbole. I know it's your thing but still...

It is though. I don't think that our current pace WILL continue, but if it did it would be one of the worst seasons in the NHL since 1950. I thought this was pretty obvious by me saying "If this pace continues ....". I did a quick count, and since the 1980-81 season there have been about 40 teams who finished the year with less than 58 points. So slightly more than 1 per year, but a good portion of those seasons were by expansion teams in their first or second seasons.

So top-20 worst since 1950 was wrong, but not wrong by a ridiculous margin or anything actually. The total number, if the 1980-now sample is indicative, is probably around 70 teams that have been that bad since 1950.

The thing that needs to be mentioned is that since the dawn of the 3 point game in 1999-00, there have only been 11 teams that have done this (over the 16 full seasons since then). This is significantly less than 1/year, at around 0.69 teams/year. Since 1999-00 it has been a lot easier to get points in the standings. We are on pace to be a "once every 2 seasons bad" team this year. I don't think I'm using hyperbole.

 

[CupofOil]

It is though. I don't think that our current pace WILL continue, but if it did it would be one of the worst seasons in the NHL since 1950. I thought this was pretty obvious by me saying "If this pace continues ....". I did a quick count, and since the 1980-81 season there have been about 40 teams who finished the year with less than 58 points. So slightly more than 1 per year, but a good portion of those seasons were by expansion teams in their first or second seasons.

So top-20 worst since 1950 was wrong, but not wrong by a ridiculous margin or anything actually. The total number, if the 1980-now sample is indicative, is probably around 70 teams that have been that bad since 1950.

The thing that needs to be mentioned is that since the dawn of the 3 point game in 1999-00, there have only been 11 teams that have done this (over the 16 full seasons since then). This is significantly less than 1/year, at around 0.69 teams/year. Since 1999-00 it has been a lot easier to get points in the standings. We are on pace to be a "once every 2 seasons bad" team this year. I don't think I'm using hyperbole.

It's not going to happen. There's no way that they are even close to being that bad and I'm pretty down on the team right now. Using "on pace" arguments this early in the season is virtually useless because there are usually many ebbs and flows throughout a season and everything usually progresses or regresses to the mean outside of a few exceptions.

I think everybody needs to take a breath. I'm not saying that criticism isn't warranted and there's plenty of that to go around but the freaking out around here about firing this guy fire that guy, trade everybody but McDavid, historical ineptitude etc. is too much, it's way way too much.

There are issues. Chia has made some mistakes, TMac has made some mistakes, the players need to be better, but it's still only 13 games after a 103 point season so I think we need to play this out for a while longer before condemning the team and franchise to all time worst failure.

 

[nexttothemoon]

I made a post in another thread about high corsi teams over the past 8 NHL seasons. There were only 3 of 26 teams that missed the playoffs with >53% corsi levels over those past 8 years... so the odds are actually on the Oilers side if they remain an elite corsi squad all season long (unless their atrocious shooting percentage and low save percentage continues... which is possible).

The 3 teams to miss were LA last year with 86 pts, LA 3 years ago with 95 pts and New Jersey with 48 pts in 48 games in the lockout year.

So realistically if the Oilers miss they will likely have 80-90 pts rather than 50-60. Not that it really matters because missing the playoffs is still missing the playoffs... but 50-60 pts would indicate a regression to levels we haven't ever seen with this club yet (even in the dark rebuild years) and would likely mean a complete overhaul of the team is in order. Going from 103 to say 60 pts would be a cataclysmic decline.

 

[CycloneSweep]

The Oilers have to go the equivalent of 5-4-0 in the next 9 games or the season is over.

 

[booyakasha]

I think the Oil come back with a 4 - 11 -2 record after the road trip.
0 - 3 - 1.
Not feeling optimistic

 

[Tobias Kahun]

The team badly needs someone who can finish, like a James Neal

 

[McJadeddog]

The team badly needs someone who can finish, like a James Neal

Yes, this is, by far, the most pressing need on the team. We don't have a single player who would be considered a sniper, not one.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Yes, this is, by far, the most pressing need on the team. We don't have a single player who would be considered a sniper, not one.

Agreed, if klefbom decides to retrieve his head from his ass, I’m much less concerned about our defense

 

[nexttothemoon]

The team shits the bed on some defensive plays more than occasionally... but goaltending has been subpar as well... plus with a 6% shooting percentage, it really doesn't matter because no team is going anywhere with that inability to finish.

A team needs a PDO near 100 to make the playoffs so this team needs their D/goaltending to keep out ~94% of shots if the shooting accuracy doesn't get any better. That's basically asking for a Hasek type performance from Talbot as the team is middle of the pack right now in shots against stats.

13th in corsi/60 against
14th in shots/60 against
10th in scoring chances/60 against
20th in high danger chances/60 against

Not great... but middling overall in comparison to their terrible save percentage and shooting percentage.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

I think the Oil come back with a 4 - 11 -2 record after the road trip.
0 - 3 - 1.
Not feeling optimistic

Wrong

 

[belair]

Still -5 points on the season compared to last year. Big win tonight though.

1. Calgary (WIN). Last season: 4-0-0
2. Vancouver (LOSS) Last season: 4-0-1 (-1 point)
3. Winnipeg (LOSS) Last season: 3-0-0 (-2 points)
4. Ottawa (LOSS) Last season: 0-2-0
5. Carolina (LOSS) Last season: 1-1-0
6. Chicago (WIN) Last season: 2-1-0
7. Philadelphia (LOSS) Last season: 1-1-0
8. Pittsburgh (OT LOSS) Last season: 0-1-1
9. Dallas (WIN) Last season: 2-1-0
10. Washington (LOSS) Last season: 1-1-0
11. Pittsburgh (LOSS) Last season: 0-1-1
12. New Jersey (WIN) Last season: 2-0-0
13. Detroit (LOSS) Last season: 2-0-0 (-2 points)
14. NY Islanders (WIN) Last season: 1-1-0

Coming up:
15. @New Jersey (Thursday) Last season 2-0-0, this season: 1-0-0
16. @NY Rangers (Saturday) Last season: 0-2-0

We'll get an opportunity to gain some ground back on Saturday.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

Still -5 points on the season compared to last year. Big win tonight though.

1. Calgary (WIN). Last season: 4-0-0
2. Vancouver (LOSS) Last season: 4-0-1 (-1 point)
3. Winnipeg (LOSS) Last season: 3-0-0 (-2 points)
4. Ottawa (LOSS) Last season: 0-2-0
5. Carolina (LOSS) Last season: 1-1-0
6. Chicago (WIN) Last season: 2-1-0
7. Philadelphia (LOSS) Last season: 1-1-0
8. Pittsburgh (OT LOSS) Last season: 0-1-1
9. Dallas (WIN) Last season: 2-1-0
10. Washington (LOSS) Last season: 1-1-0
11. Pittsburgh (LOSS) Last season: 0-1-1
12. New Jersey (WIN) Last season: 2-0-0
13. Detroit (LOSS) Last season: 2-0-0 (-2 points)
14. NY Islanders (WIN) Last season: 1-1-0

Coming up:
15. @New Jersey (Thursday) Last season 2-0-0, this season: 1-0-0
16. @NY Rangers (Saturday) Last season: 0-2-0

We'll get an opportunity to gain some ground back on Saturday.

A good road trip and we are well on our way to climbing back into the thick of things.

Last season in November the team lost 8 in 10 and many board members went into meltdown mode. They turned it around last year and I have confidence they will do the same this season.