Blash

[Shaman464]

First of all, I'm talking about playing the same style of system with a team who has the same strengths and weaknesses.

Second, no it is not equally possible that they lose games 15-1, unless you can point me to any team in the modern era that has lost 1-15 while also employing a puck-possession game with emphasis on back-checking and two-way play.

Edit: Ultimately, we're back at this false dichotomy that you think exists: if you play an offensive puck-possession game, you must also absolve yourself of all defensive duties and perpetually hang your goalie out to dry.

No I am not actually, I am looking at the objective evidence that this team has to play a conservative defensive team game to stay in games and when that stops this team has been shown to be swiss cheese. This team doesn't have the talent to play a wide open game and keep it close. Right now they are barely able to play a tight game and keep it close. What evidence do you have that if they play a more open game that all of the sudden Detroit will play a more entertaining game, and not just look more pathetic? Because you're the one who is making it seem like light switch, they change their game plan and all of the sudden they will be more entertaining instead of they change their game plan and the bottom really falls out.

 

[Reddwit]

Holland sees a team that is only 4 points out of a playoff spot in a very weak division. This is the 5th worse team in the NHL but its also in a trainwreck of a division. He is still talking about how anything can happen, that is 100% him saying that he still believes this team has a chance, and likely will if they continue to be within 5-8 points of a playoff spot.

Is that what Holland sees? Is he that dumb?

Or does he see a team who's progressively falling in GAA, GF, PK% and PP%?
Does he see a team who may be "4 points out of a playoff spot" or does he recognize that the team in that playoff spot has 3 games in hand?

And is he really talking about how anything can happen? Can you quote him on that? Cause this is what I see:

"“I look at the next 10 or 15 games for this team as being critical in determining what direction we’re going to go. We’re two games under .500. You still have to think we’re going to need 90 to 95 points to make the playoffs, so if we’re going to get back in this race, in the next 10 to 15 games we have to play over .500 — and then you have to keep it up,” Holland said."

Thats what Holland said a week ago. 3 games ago. With a ridiculously tough schedule coming up. With a team that is currently on pace to finish with 76.5 points on the season.

But pray tell how a future coach is going to have the same directives as Blashill has had.

 

[Dotter]

Ken Holland has been rebuilding this team since last season. He knows this. He's just not discouraging the players on the ice with it. Let the players have something to play for instead of admitting full rebuild. "Rebuild" and "tank" are words no GMs want to use -- even if they are.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Holland sees a team that is only 4 points out of a playoff spot in a very weak division. This is the 5th worse team in the NHL but its also in a trainwreck of a division. He is still talking about how anything can happen, that is 100% him saying that he still believes this team has a chance, and likely will if they continue to be within 5-8 points of a playoff spot.

You are delusional if you think a GM comes out with his 100% honest opinion in a situation like this. Fact is there’s still 50 games to go and anything CAN happen, which is a better thing for a GM to say than ”team is f***in garbage lol why are u guys even watching”.

I’m sure you could get a quote out of John Chayka that can be seen as him thinking they have a chance still.

 

[Shaman464]

Is that what Holland sees? Is he that dumb?

Or does he see a team who's progressively falling in GAA, GF, PK% and PP%?
Does he see a team who may be "4 points out of a playoff spot" or does he recognize that the team in that playoff spot has 3 games in hand?

And is he really talking about how anything can happen? Can you quote him on that? Cause this is what I see:

"“I look at the next 10 or 15 games for this team as being critical in determining what direction we’re going to go. We’re two games under .500. You still have to think we’re going to need 90 to 95 points to make the playoffs, so if we’re going to get back in this race, in the next 10 to 15 games we have to play over .500 — and then you have to keep it up,” Holland said."

Thats what Holland said a week ago. 3 games ago. With a ridiculously tough schedule coming up. With a team that is currently on pace to finish with 76.5 points on the season.

But pray tell how a future coach is going to have the same directives as Blashill has had.

So there's an internal contradiction to your logic here. One of these things is true both cannot be:

Either:

1. That Blashill isn't coaching this team correctly leading to the team not performing to expectations.

2. That this team is performing to expectations and Holland is just paying lip service.

If #1 is correct than bringing in a new coach makes sense for Holland because he fundamentally believes this team is under performing. And the risks of the bringing in a new coach is outweighed by perceived benefits.

If #2 is correct there is no internal motivation to bring in a new coach because it wouldn't make any difference as to outcome, and bringing in an interim coach is inherently risky, especially because both internal and external candidates could upset whatever balance there is here.

Right now there is no evidence that the players dislike Blashill, nothing from either established media or from the blogosphere. There is also no evidence that a coaching change would lead to a change in philosophy, especially with likely candidates being internal. Finally, even with a change of philosophy there is zero guarantee that there would be any change in outcome. All you have is ' x therefore y' without justifying it with a shred of evidence.

 

[Shaman464]

You are delusional if you think a GM comes out with his 100% honest opinion in a situation like this. Fact is there’s still 50 games to go and anything CAN happen, which is a better thing for a GM to say than ”team is f***in garbage lol why are u guys even watching”.

I’m sure you could get a quote out of John Chayka that can be seen as him thinking they have a chance still.

Holland has been relatively honest about his intentions. After last season he wouldn't have lost any face by saying the team needs to rebuild, but he, and his actions point to, a belief that this team can make the playoffs. As it stands today, and his statements as of late, point to him seeing being *only* 4 points out as them being within striking distance of a spot and still being committed to trying to get that spot.

 

[Reddwit]

No I am not actually, I am looking at the objective evidence that this team has to play a conservative defensive team game to stay in games and when that stops this team has been shown to be swiss cheese. This team doesn't have the talent to play a wide open game and keep it close. Right now they are barely able to play a tight game and keep it close. What evidence do you have that if they play a more open game that all of the sudden Detroit will play a more entertaining game, and not just look more pathetic? Because you're the one who is making it seem like light switch, they change their game plan and all of the sudden they will be more entertaining instead of they change their game plan and the bottom really falls out.

What evidence do you have that they will NOT look more entertaining? What is this - LOL - "objective evidence?" They've played Blashill's game - where have they gotten? Their worst loss in decades? A losing record? A bottom 5 team? What exactly do you point to when they lose? Because all I see is a team who is not capable of executing a "conservative game." After all, what is a conservative game? Is it a game that promotes moving the puck forward with speed or is it a game that promotes careful-at-all-costs decision-making that does nothing more than slow down the game in your own zone and the neutral zone? And isn't that precisely where our team is weakest?

In the end, all a conservative game does is slow down the game in the hands of our weakest players. Advocating that is counter-intuitive. All you're attempting to do there is inflate the abilities of your pitiful defense to average (i.e. competent) but in the process you're diminishing the best attributes of your best players - your forwards!

I mean...what functions in this league now? Is it puck-possession or dump-and-chase? Who prevails in the league today: Dylan McIlrath, Erik Gudbranson, Luke Schenn, and Griffin Reinhart or John Klingberg, Tyson Barrie, Shayne Gostisbehere and Zach Werenski? Who has more trade value? Lucic or Gaudreau? Toews or Kane? Givani Smith or Alex Debrincat? Do you need a Bergeron more or a Crosby more? Do you need Letang and Schultz or Orpik and Alzner? Can you make do with a Trevor Daley and a Ron Hainsey or do you make do with a Jonathan Ericsson and a Brian Lashoff?

The league today is fast. Speed-wise and transition-wise. There is no escaping that. You can't cover that up with interference or open-ice physicality or hooking or slashing. You can't back down from it in your own zone either - being flat-footed is death and being a moron positionally only makes that worse. The best you can do is work with what you have on the fly - which should be your last D back and your two-way forward with the speed you employ up front making the break-neck back-check. That is nothing Detroit can't handle at the end of the day and even if they can't, its nothing they can't give a whirl in a season where they're dead in the water as it is. Puck-possession-to-transition hockey is the now and the future so they might as well become accustomed to it while their young guys can learn on the fly and not hurt the team record as it stands.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Holland has been relatively honest about his intentions. After last season he wouldn't have lost any face by saying the team needs to rebuild, but he, and his actions point to, a belief that this team can make the playoffs. As it stands today, and his statements as of late, point to him seeing being *only* 4 points out as them being within striking distance of a spot and still being committed to trying to get that spot.

His actions don’t indicate he thinks the team needs a complete scorched earth rebuild, but they hardly indicate some strong faith in the ability of the roster either. At this point in the season he could fire the coach or try to swing a trade to upgrade the roster if he truly thinks we’re close. His words mean very little right now since doing nothing is the action. And come TDL he is much more likely to sell than to buy or stand pat unless we’re magically in the mix again at that point.

Coming out and saying a rebuild is needed does several things that are potentially harmful:

- Reduces his leverage in trade duscussion
- Deflates players, who still want to play to win
- Could impact ticket sales negatively

And the benefit? A few fans who can’t read between the lines get confirmation that yes, they are indeed trying to rebuild the team by drafting more frequently and higher and not selling futures.

 

[Reddwit]

So there's an internal contradiction to your logic here. One of these things is true both cannot be:

Either:

1. That Blashill isn't coaching this team correctly leading to the team not performing to expectations.

2. That this team is performing to expectations and Holland is just paying lip service.

If #1 is correct than bringing in a new coach makes sense for Holland because he fundamentally believes this team is under performing. And the risks of the bringing in a new coach is outweighed by perceived benefits.

If #2 is correct there is no internal motivation to bring in a new coach because it wouldn't make any difference as to outcome, and bringing in an interim coach is inherently risky, especially because both internal and external candidates could upset whatever balance there is here.

Right now there is no evidence that the players dislike Blashill, nothing from either established media or from the blogosphere. There is also no evidence that a coaching change would lead to a change in philosophy, especially with likely candidates being internal. Finally, even with a change of philosophy there is zero guarantee that there would be any change in outcome. All you have is ' x therefore y' without justifying it with a shred of evidence.

There is no "logic" in what you are suggesting because both of your statements are not facts but suppositions and they aren't temporally qualified. (This is one of those moments where you're reminded that folks on the internet use the term "logic" colloquially and not as a major, qualifiable tenet of mathematics and/or philosophy.) The team could very well NOT be playing up to expectations but Holland could still be paying lip service to the public because his current expectations have since deviated from his previous expectations and he doesn't want people to view him as contradictory or flippant OR he wants people to retain faith in his hiring decisions OR he feels a coaching change will create too much of a negative press junket.

Once again, you've created a false dichotomy. And I havent even touched on the other half of it.

 

[HIFE]

...The league today is fast. Speed-wise and transition-wise. There is no escaping that. You can't cover that up with interference or open-ice physicality or hooking or slashing. You can't back down from it in your own zone either - being flat-footed is death and being a moron positionally only makes that worse. The best you can do is work with what you have on the fly - which should be your last D back and your two-way forward with the speed you employ up front making the break-neck back-check. That is nothing Detroit can't handle at the end of the day and even if they can't, its nothing they can't give a whirl in a season where they're dead in the water as it is. Puck-possession-to-transition hockey is the now and the future so they might as well become accustomed to it while their young guys can learn on the fly and not hurt the team record as it stands.

This is a beautifully written description of the modern NHL.. and the exact systems Blashill has tried to put in place. From what I see 60-70% of NHL exits are chips and area passes to move the puck (and play) forward quickly. The opportunities for possession arise when players get themselves open but that space is more rare. Detroit is trying to play the same forward moving quick transition style game 30 other teams employ, we're just not talented enough to execute it.

Mlive had an article from the Wings' D last week saying they want to get activated in the offense. What we see is the best they can do! I agree the defense-first strategy that began under Babcock is depressing but I'm having a hard time imagining it could be changed much without losing 10-1 every game of the year. We've watched Ouellet, Daley, Ericsson, and Kronwall attempt to pinch in and get burned, it's not a pretty sight.

 

[Hatter of the Beach]

Ken Holland has been rebuilding this team since last season. He knows this. He's just not discouraging the players on the ice with it. Let the players have something to play for instead of admitting full rebuild. "Rebuild" and "tank" are words no GMs want to use -- even if they are.

Agreed. Shaman isn’t giving Holland enough credit. He’s playing coy, and while I DO think he may have thought last season was an aberration coming into the season, he’s seen enough to make moves. He sold hard last deadline and I expect him to do so again (Green and Mrazek at minimum). For once Holland’s actions are speaking louder than his words in a positive way. Optimism is just him being a professional, he's not going to say "Yeah, this team is horrible and we're screwed for the foreseeable future".

 

[Reddwit]

This is a beautifully written description of the modern NHL.. and the exact systems Blashill has tried to put in place. From what I see 60-70% of NHL exits are chips and area passes to move the puck (and play) forward quickly. The opportunities for possession arise when players get themselves open but that space is more rare. Detroit is trying to play the same forward moving quick transition style game 30 other teams employ, we're just not talented enough to execute it.

Mlive had an article from the Wings' D last week saying they want to get activated in the offense. What we see is the best they can do! I agree the defense-first strategy that began under Babcock is depressing but I'm having a hard time imagining it could be changed much without losing 10-1 every game of the year. We've watched Ouellet, Daley, Ericsson, and Kronwall attempt to pinch in and get burned, it's not a pretty sight.

Its not so much about talent as it is having a set defenseman activated in the play such that the opposition has to respect that player as an option in the offensive zone and the forwards (particularly the forward playing the primary two-way game - not necessarily a center) can then recognize said defenseman jumping into the play which then cues them to be prepared for the return transition.

So, for example, you have a line of Helm-Nielsen-Athansiou with a D unit of Daley and Ericsson. On the forward transition, Daley jumps up into the play to create a 4th man. Once Daley enters into the offensive zone, you have Helm recognizing Daley's activation. Helm then knows he has to be prepared for the offensive play but also has to weigh that against being the first man back for Daley. Regardless, Daley's activation skews the man coverage for the opposition which creates chaos. That allows Helm to slip into being the man back for Daley which creates a revolving door of 4 options that the opposition has to protect....

Thats not to say its always going to end up in results but it does create more opportunities to score (generally), more opportunities for the defense to score, and more situations where the opposition is running out of gas adjusting to your defense popping up in the play. Those are all things our organization could seriously benefit from which, with appropriate practice, wouldn't "leave our goalies out to dry."

 

[Shaman464]

Agreed. Shaman isn’t giving Holland enough credit. He’s playing coy, and while I DO think he may have thought last season was an aberration coming into the season, he’s seen enough to make moves. He sold hard last deadline and I expect him to do so again (Green and Mrazek at minimum). For once Holland’s actions are speaking louder than his words in a positive way. Optimism is just him being a professional, he's not going to say "Yeah, this team is horrible and we're screwed for the foreseeable future".

Yeah like when he signed Daley, signing Tatar and keeping Nyquist for nearly 10 million per year, or is keeping career AHL players up while younger forwards and D-men in the AHL aren't getting a chance to play in the big show. The organization is set on making the playoffs this year and they believe it will be an embarrassment and bad financially if they don't. They made projections of dollars being brought into LCA based on making the playoffs. Complicating matters they 200 million in their bonds require repayment in the near future, which is projected to come from revenues both from events and from hockey as revenue/profit lines for refinancing to private loans. If the Wings, a cap team, doesn't turn a profit, it can affect their ability to privately refinance their bonds. Basically a rebuild right now, with one of the NHL's highest payrolls and required repayment of their series B bonds in the near future means that the Illitch's don't any incentive to rebuild right now, especially with the Tigers in the middle of one.

 

[Syckle78]

They might as well rebuild regardless. Fan interest is dropping by the day. They aren't going to be making much money off the team with this product. Fans are clearly not buying what they're selling. Shitting on the good will with the arena naming and bait and switch with the arena roof was a bad idea in this climate.

 

[Bench]

They might as well rebuild regardless. Fan interest is dropping by the day. They aren't going to be making much money off the team with this product. Fans are clearly not buying what they're selling. ****ting on the good will with the arena naming and bait and switch with the arena roof was a bad idea in this climate.

What... you don't believe they have the 3rd highest attendance in the league with 100% sell out crowds like they are reporting?

2017-2018 NHL Attendance - National Hockey League - ESPN

 

[Syckle78]

Yikes I didn't even bother to look at any actual attendance numbers. That's utterly embarrassing they're trying to pass that off.

 

[lomekian]

It seems you are completely disconnected from reality. The orders from the front office is playoffs. Any move they make will be one that will, in their mind, increase their chances of that. Their moves to this point have pointed to a belief in the fact that this team, at its best, is a playoff team. Why would Holland when all words and actions to this point show he believes last season was an aberration, decide to make a change of heart? And all you have to this point is baseless speculation and grass is always greener outlook. There is no reason to believe any coach will come in and magically fix anything, and without showing any evidence that Holland will give a new coach any more of a leash than Blash has, there is no reason to believe anything you said is likely to happen if they do can Blash.

In Holland's last two interviews he's made it clear that the aim is to make the playoffs, but there is an acceptance that this might not happen, and the primary aim is to avoid a deliberately losing culture and present as an organisation whose stated aim every year is to aim to win. He also made it pretty clear that by mid Jan selling will happen unless results magically improve. He wants to accumulate picks without deliberately throwing in the towel as psychological choice. Once the playoffs are pretty much off the table, the focus from on high will be developing our younger players and getting looks at whoever is showing much in GR.

Its one of the reasons we've overpaid our UFAs - everyone has known for a couple of year that we might be crap for a bit, and players want more money when they know they can't win the big prizes. Its another reason why drafting well will be key. If we get some top end talent over the next 2-3 years, suddenly we become a sexy place for top UFAs and hometown discounts, because everyone knows that when Detroit has some talent they will do whatever they can to win.

 

[lomekian]

Holland sees a team that is only 4 points out of a playoff spot in a very weak division. This is the 5th worse team in the NHL but its also in a trainwreck of a division. He is still talking about how anything can happen, that is 100% him saying that he still believes this team has a chance, and likely will if they continue to be within 5-8 points of a playoff spot.

And would you expect him to say publicly that its time to give up when only 4 points away? That would be monumentally stupid on every level. If there is no carrot for anyone bar 3/4/5 years from now, that doesn't offer a lot for the guys who are there now, or the development of the youngsters.

 

[The Flying Octopus]

Wings lead the NHL in moral victories w Blashill behind the bench...


-Get bombed 6-1. No problem. We had good process. Our goalie is exactly on his game.

-Blow a 3rd period lead, aggggaaain.No problem. We had good process. Just bad luck.

-Lose 6 or 7 in a row. Twice already. No problem. Kenny said it was just 5 bad periods.

It’s over. The eternal optimistic has given up.

 

[lomekian]

No I am not actually, I am looking at the objective evidence that this team has to play a conservative defensive team game to stay in games and when that stops this team has been shown to be swiss cheese. This team doesn't have the talent to play a wide open game and keep it close. Right now they are barely able to play a tight game and keep it close. What evidence do you have that if they play a more open game that all of the sudden Detroit will play a more entertaining game, and not just look more pathetic? Because you're the one who is making it seem like light switch, they change their game plan and all of the sudden they will be more entertaining instead of they change their game plan and the bottom really falls out.

The guy is saying a more puck possession style, not an 80s run and gun insanity. He's not talking about abandoning two way play or responsibility, just trying to play a little bit less straight line north-south and don't support your man for fear of being out of position that we've seen.

 

[Mlotek]

Don't worry, superstar Vitkovski just returned from suspension and the team has 1 point in the game played. That is hell of a lot better than the 7 points in 10 games he was gone.

That is almost a 50% increase! Those 6 minutes he plays a night are so glorious and dominant that opposition teams are wowed by his spectacular skill level.

Vitkovski for MVP!!!!

He and he alone can turn this season around.

 

[Hatter of the Beach]

Yikes I didn't even bother to look at any actual attendance numbers. That's utterly embarrassing they're trying to pass that off.

I’m assuming they buy back the tickets to save face and to show sponsors “see, people are there!”

 

[Shaman464]

Yikes I didn't even bother to look at any actual attendance numbers. That's utterly embarrassing they're trying to pass that off.

Its more embarrassing that at least according to a friend who works as a 'ticket executive' is that a lot of the seats that aren't going filled are ones that were bought up by two groups of buyers: Corporations/businesses that wanted to use them to wine and dine people and then speculators who thought they would make money reselling them. They are "selling out" by they never are near capacity at game time.