Blake Wheeler... draft reach?

[TheHudlinator]

I's take Wheeler over Radulov, Versteeg, Grabovski, Streit, Stafford, and Smid.

Again its debatable, I am not knocking Wheeler he is good he was a reach and would still be a reach at 5 in a redraft.

 

[SmellOfVictory]

Yup. One successful draft reach means all reaches are justified. I wish it was just 7 straight rounds of Jankowski's.

There are a lot of similarities, no need to be an ass about it. Half of the posts on HFBoards are comparables, and Wheeler makes for a pretty good one in this case.

 

[Joey Moss]

Uh, no. Wow.
Not even close.

You're a Flames fan so I won't put any credibility into this post.

Yeah. I'm a Smid fan as well, and even I wouldn't consider trading Wheeler for Smid. He's a decent 2nd pairing player at this point, while Wheeler is a top line player in Winnipeg and the clubs leading scorer from last year. It's not even close.

He's a top shutdown defenseman. A #3 on most teams in the league, easily 2nd pairing. Not just decent. Like I said, Wheeler has never produced anywhere near that. He'll have to do it again to establish himself as that kind of player.

And Smid is grossly underrated.

 

[tjcurrie]

Blake was drafted out of high school after an insanely dominant year and lured comparisons to Mike Modano (who was drafted out of high school in Livonia) for having similar paths into their respective drafts.

The overall aura about him being taken this early though, at least in Minnesota -- was a combo of astonishment and agreement in Gretzky's vision with Wheeler's future. He had a bright path ahead of him and while he wasn't rated as highly in comparison to the other players on the NA rankings, it's pretty commonplace for Minnesota HS players to come out of the draft in a higher position than their ranking. Leddy is a good recent example.

Modano was drafted out of Prince Albert of the WHL bro.

 

[tjcurrie]

You're a Flames fan so I won't put any credibility into this post.


He's a top shutdown defenseman. A #3 on most teams in the league, easily 2nd pairing. Not just decent. Like I said, Wheeler has never produced anywhere near that. He'll have to do it again to establish himself as that kind of player.

And Smid is grossly underrated.

Im the furthest thing from an oiler fan and I dont like Smid, but I like his game. I wouldnt call him a top shutdown man though. That label is reserved for guys like Derian Hatcher, Scott Stevens, Zdenp Chara, Chris Pronger, Ryan Suter, etc etc. Guys who can play 30 minutes a night and against anyone. Smid isnt that. I will agree hes a bit underrated though. Wheeler is a top line winger though and its more of a reach to say teams would deal Wheeler for Smid than the other way around.

 

[JetsHomer]

I'd take Wheeler over Ladd as a jets fan

 

[Flair Hay]

Because he wouldn't be?

Malkin
Ovy
Krejci
Radulov
Edler
Schneider
Green
Callahan
Versteeg
Grabovski
Streit
Stafford
Meszaros
Zajac
Ladd
Smid

are all from the same draft, I don't dislike Wheeler but he was a huge reach and he ended out working out rather well but in a redraft he most likely isn't top 10 and would still be a reach at 5. Its not a knock against him to say he was a reach because he was.

Sorry man but if you'd take Ladd over Wheeler you couldn't have watched the Jets play more than twice for a whole game...

Lots of those are arguable but you are really underrating Wheeler IMO. End homer rant.

 

[Flair Hay]

You're a Flames fan so I won't put any credibility into this post.


He's a top shutdown defenseman. A #3 on most teams in the league, easily 2nd pairing. Not just decent. Like I said, Wheeler has never produced anywhere near that. He'll have to do it again to establish himself as that kind of player.

And Smid is grossly underrated.

You talking out of your ass man. Wheeler IS doing it again this year for us. Would love Smid on the Jets, but for Wheeler gimme a break and quit while only several people agree that your wrong...

 

[TheHudlinator]

Sorry man but if you'd take Ladd over Wheeler you couldn't have watched the Jets play more than twice for a whole game...

Lots of those are arguable but you are really underrating Wheeler IMO. End homer rant.

Thats fine I said it was arguable but I think it is pretty obvious he isn't the top 5 best players from his draft but he is a great player, if he has another year or 2 of a ppg of .8 then he may work his way into a discussion for the top 5. I am not trying to make it seem like he sucks I don't think he does, my point was that even tho he worked out well for a reach doesn't mean he was the best player available.

 

[Mc5RingsAndABeer]

Smid? Really? who plays 18:30/game, over a 6'5 man who put up 64 points last year? You gotta see Wheeler play. I would say best forward on the Jets. Kane might be better soon but not yet.

Yes. If Edmonton had 6 Smids on defense, they'd be a cup contender.

 

[ed bruin]

Yes. If Edmonton had 6 Smids on defense, they'd be a cup contender.

Smid is so underrated....

Wheeler was a reach for the right reasons though, everybody knew the kid has hands and great skill for a big player, but they anticipated that the physicality would also come because of his size. Wheeler is not a powerforward and the potential he had going into his draft year as a skilled powerforward was why the Coyotes reached on him.

 

[misfit]

The Wheeler selection had just about everybody shaking their heads at the time. He was a tremendous reach on draft day. Some thought there was a chance he could go at the end of the 1st, but most had him in the 2nd round.

I do know that if the Coyotes didn't pick him, he wouldn't have made it past the Islanders at 16. Mike Milbury made a comment (I think to McKenzie because he was the one who mentioned it on air) on draft day that people would be surprised with his selection and that he wasn't going to take a goaltender and he wasn't going to take a european (which prompted the obvious prediction that he was going to take Schwarz). Considering the fact that he ended up going with Finnish winger P.Nokelainen, he obviously didn't get the guy he wanted and none of the players taken 1-15 would've been considered a surprise.

In the end, Phoenix looked pretty smart making that pick as he's turned out to be one of the better players taken in the 2004 draft.

As an Oiler fan, that draft just makes me sad. Aside from the fact that their current starting goalie was their first pick that year, they didn't get a single player of substance from the other 9 picks they had (including another 1st and 2 2nds). They were really bullish on Stafford, but the Sabres wouldn't take a 2nd round pick to move down one position.

 

[inthewings]

Thats fine I said it was arguable but I think it is pretty obvious he isn't the top 5 best players from his draft but he is a great player, if he has another year or 2 of a ppg of .8 then he may work his way into a discussion for the top 5. I am not trying to make it seem like he sucks I don't think he does, my point was that even tho he worked out well for a reach doesn't mean he was the best player available.

I think your logic is flawed. Wheeler doesn't have to be a top-5 pick from the draft to be a good pick. For example, let's choose a random draft (20002). Joni Pitkanen was taken 4th overall. He won't end up the 4th-best player of the draft, but that pick still looks like a decent pick.

Similarly, Wheeler may not be the 5th-best player from his draft, but he's still going to carve out an excellent career as a good top-6 player. You could do a lot worse.

 

[kaiser matias]

I remember the TSN panel being a little confused as to why the Coyotes picked him. They came to the conclusion that since Gretzky announced the pick and was associated with the team he must have seen something in Wheeler that the rest of us simple folk couldn't understand.

Of course he's actually lived up to being a decent player and not that much of a reach in that draft.

 

[TheHudlinator]

I think your logic is flawed. Wheeler doesn't have to be a top-5 pick from the draft to be a good pick. For example, let's choose a random draft (20002). Joni Pitkanen was taken 4th overall. He won't end up the 4th-best player of the draft, but that pick still looks like a decent pick.

Similarly, Wheeler may not be the 5th-best player from his draft, but he's still going to carve out an excellent career as a good top-6 player. You could do a lot worse.

I never once said he was a bad pick I said he was a reach and he was, someone made the comment that he wasn't that bad of a pick and I said he wouldn't go 5th in a redraft I never said he was bad.

 

[Joey Moss]

You talking out of your ass man. Wheeler IS doing it again this year for us. Would love Smid on the Jets, but for Wheeler gimme a break and quit while only several people agree that your wrong...

Six games into the season, bud.

 

[kingsfan]

Because he wouldn't be?

Malkin
Ovy
Krejci
Radulov
Edler
Schneider
Green
Callahan
Versteeg
Grabovski
Streit
Stafford
Meszaros
Zajac
Ladd
Smid

are all from the same draft, I don't dislike Wheeler but he was a huge reach and he ended out working out rather well but in a redraft he most likely isn't top 10 and would still be a reach at 5. Its not a knock against him to say he was a reach because he was.

Sorry, but I don't pick Smid, Radulov, Streit, Zajac or Meszaros ahead of Wheeler, and I'd have to give a lot of consideration to Ladd, Stafford, Versteeg, Grabovski and Schnider as well. Honestly, based on what has been done thus far combined with the potential over the next ten years, I'd only say Ovie, Malkin, Edler seem guaranteed to have better careers when all is said and done than Wheeler. The rest can be debated, but it's very conceivable that Wheeler could have a top 5 career of all players picked in his draft year.

You're a Flames fan so I won't put any credibility into this post.


He's a top shutdown defenseman. A #3 on most teams in the league, easily 2nd pairing. Not just decent. Like I said, Wheeler has never produced anywhere near that. He'll have to do it again to establish himself as that kind of player.

And Smid is grossly underrated.

No he's not. He's a solid defenseman for sure, and as I said before I like his game, but I'm not blind. He's a regular second pairing defenseman. He's not a top end shutdown defenseman. No ones going to confuse Smid with Rod Langway.

 

[Joey Moss]

You talking out of your ass man. Wheeler IS doing it again this year for us. Would love Smid on the Jets, but for Wheeler gimme a break and quit while only several people agree that your wrong...

What exactly is wrong with what I said? Wheeler had a great first season in the NHL, and his play dropped up until last season. Like I said, he's been a streaky scorer. When Wheeler establishes himself as a 1st line winger then fair enough but he has not done that. Simple.

I would rather have Smid on my team than Wheeler. That is all.

 

[Joey Moss]

Sorry, but I don't pick Smid, Radulov, Streit, Zajac or Meszaros ahead of Wheeler, and I'd have to give a lot of consideration to Ladd, Stafford, Versteeg, Grabovski and Schnider as well. Honestly, based on what has been done thus far combined with the potential over the next ten years, I'd only say Ovie, Malkin, Edler seem guaranteed to have better careers when all is said and done than Wheeler. The rest can be debated, but it's very conceivable that Wheeler could have a top 5 career of all players picked in his draft year.



No he's not. He's a solid defenseman for sure, and as I said before I like his game, but I'm not blind. He's a regular second pairing defenseman. He's not a top end shutdown defenseman. No ones going to confuse Smid with Rod Langway.

Same class as Vlasic, IMO. Obviously not a Langway but I didn't mean elite like that.

 

[SmellOfVictory]

I would rather have Smid on my team than Wheeler. That is all.

That may have something to do with the fact that "your team" is the Oilers, and if you remove Smid the back end becomes an insane black hole defensively.

 

[TheHudlinator]

Sorry, but I don't pick Smid, Radulov, Streit, Zajac or Meszaros ahead of Wheeler, and I'd have to give a lot of consideration to Ladd, Stafford, Versteeg, Grabovski and Schnider as well. Honestly, based on what has been done thus far combined with the potential over the next ten years, I'd only say Ovie, Malkin, Edler seem guaranteed to have better careers when all is said and done than Wheeler. The rest can be debated, but it's very conceivable that Wheeler could have a top 5 career of all players picked in his draft year.

Its your opinion but I would take most of those over Wheeler rather easily especially Ovie,Malkin,Edler,Radulov,Zajac,Grabo,Schneider for my team I would also take Smid and Meszaros over Wheeler as well. The rest is a toss up I think I would take Versteeg over him probably not Ladd and Stafford is a draw.

 

[inthewings]

I never once said he was a bad pick I said he was a reach and he was, someone made the comment that he wasn't that bad of a pick and I said he wouldn't go 5th in a redraft I never said he was bad.

He was a reach only in the sense that the pick was surprising to observers. Considering the fact that only Zajac (20th), Schneider (26th), and Green (29th) were taken after him in the 1st round and have a chance at having significantly better carers, I don't know why you'd call it anything other than a really good pick.

 

[TheHudlinator]

He was a reach only in the sense that the pick was surprising to observers. Considering the fact that only Zajac (20th), Schneider (26th), and Green (29th) were taken after him in the 1st round and have a chance at having significantly better carers, I don't know why you'd call it anything other than a really good pick.

It was a good pick where did I say it was bad? I never said that a reached can't be a good pick but it was more surprising then the Jankowski pick was last year and many found that to be a reach.

 

[inthewings]

It was a good pick where did I say it was bad? I never said that a reached can't be a good pick but it was more surprising then the Jankowski pick was last year and many found that to be a reach.

It's just an odd thing to focus on now that you have to go about 15 picks to find a guy who looks like he could be a better player over their respective careers. Is it a reach when your pick pans out as well or better than the next 14 picks? IMO it ceased being a reach at that point and just becomes a good pick. But we've largely digressed to semantics now and that's never fun.

The whole idea is to pick who you think is the best player at a given spot. As it turns out, Phoenix did a pretty good job of that. In this case their scouting department was better-informed than the various fans and scouting services that had him ranked lower. Reach or good pick?

 

[TheHudlinator]

It's just an odd thing to focus on now that you have to go about 15 picks to find a guy who looks like he could be a better player over their respective careers. Is it a reach when your pick pans out as well or better than the next 14 picks? IMO it ceased being a reach at that point and just becomes a good pick. But we've largely digressed to semantics now and that's never fun.

The question was "was Wheeler a reach at the draft and how big of a reach", answering that question he was a huge reach one of the bigger ones in the last 15 years but he panned out so it was worth it.