The decline has been going on for a couple years now.
Player Discussion: Blake Wheeler Discussion
- Thread starter kylbaz
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Registered User
- Feb 22, 2012
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Wasn't making any excuses for his own play either with his comment about if he's in the lineup he should be treated as if he's 100%. He's open to criticism and sounds like he's fine taking the negativity.
Big picture is that he has to be better for the team to be a competitor for the cup and he's probably aware of it. Right now they're winning and that's great, because we know he can be better.
Edit to add: I wonder if he is a bit banged up though, he didn't deny it
The Wheeler focus is diverting attention from the fact that over the last three games 81 and 44 have been on the ice for 6 of 8 5-on-5 goals against too.
6 PP points
2 5v5 pts (0.85 pts/60 worst of our top 9 fwds)
3 pts EN/4v4/3v3
well here's his shot and chance-share stats and he's at 17% GF% (3 gf 14 GA).
so at 5v5 hockey he's getting out shot, out-chanced out scored.
he plays a lot with KC so some of KC's deficiencies bleed into it as well
i am not sure what Laine has to do anything with this. Laine's had garbage stats in the past and i've commented on them.
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Yup. Wheeler wasn't as good as his elite production from his top seasons, but playing mostly at C last season Wheeler was one of the more effective Jets. Here is a chart with the Jets performances in terms of expected goals above replacement last season.
JetsFan815
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- Jan 16, 2012
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There is vast canyon of difference between moderate age related decline and dropping from being a +6% Relative xG% and +3.75% Relative Corsi% player to being -18% and -9% in those metrics over the course of just one off season. There is very likely something else other than just age related decline going on there. Some real bad luck combined with him dealing with something could be an explanation.
and if you posts this year's exclusively, you'll see why people believe he has not been playing well
****again, just before someone jumps all over me again - just commenting on his play so far, he can definitely turn it around we're still only 10 games in
he played mostly with KC and Scheifele this year, so even relative stats when he's off the ice doesn't tell us much. KC is garbage in defensively play and Scheifele has been underwhelming too.
No it hasn't.
He was on track to post his highest goal total of his career last season.
The two seasons prior to that he posted more than a point per game and went to the asg.
He is at more than a point per game pace this year.
Skidooboy
Registered User
first off. I don't buy fancy stats. no acknowledgment of error in the model, no fitness checks, no error bars........it's just a bunch of numbers that are helpful in understanding a portion of the game, NEVER HAVE EVER EVER EVER been accepted as definitive.. that's why there are a bunch of variations...the fancy stat community cannot get down to a single stat that tells the whole story.
But people out there are forcing a BS narrative, people, who for all I know took a grade 10 stats course and that's it , suddenly know more than one of the most experienced coachess in NHL history and a very succesful GM .. Here's a trick I learned in university...if you can't calculate a stat and explain the how's and why of it's calculations and weighting...you shouldn't site it.
So
Blake is Captain on a winning team, scoring at a point per game rate, plays in almost all situations, has the trust of his coach, his linemates, and his GM.....
sounds like a guy we should celebrate.
But people out there are forcing a BS narrative, people, who for all I know took a grade 10 stats course and that's it , suddenly know more than one of the most experienced coachess in NHL history and a very succesful GM .. Here's a trick I learned in university...if you can't calculate a stat and explain the how's and why of it's calculations and weighting...you shouldn't site it.
So
Blake is Captain on a winning team, scoring at a point per game rate, plays in almost all situations, has the trust of his coach, his linemates, and his GM.....
sounds like a guy we should celebrate.
Not surprisingly, there are some other top forwards that are near the bottom in shot metrics at this point in the season...6 PP points
2 5v5 pts (0.85 pts/60 worst of our top 9 fwds)
3 pts EN/4v4/3v3
well here's his shot and chance-share stats and he's at 17% GF% (3 gf 14 GA).
so at 5v5 hockey he's getting out shot, out-chanced out scored.
he plays a lot with KC so some of KC's deficiencies bleed into it as well
i am not sure what Laine has to do anything with this. Laine's had garbage stats in the past and i've commented on them.
Ovechkin
Kane
Boeser
Zibanejad
JT Miller
Pettersson
Huberdeau
...
Yep. And the eye-test seems to agree. He’s made some smart, Wheeler-like plays and more than a few where he has looked like he’s struggling to stay with a player or play.
Hopefully reduced ice time and some maintenance days will help. Or maybe he and MP85 have some kind of Freaky Friday endurance swap going on because Perrault has been flying.
do they all have a 17% GF share too?
here's his GAR chart since i know you like GAR
again, early, only 10 games in, he's our captain etc. etc
agreed. Wheeler still has value don't get me wrong, such as on the PP. I think they need to do something with KC. I don't think Wheeler can carry a player defensively as poor as connor anymore. there is definite speed/quickness concerns with Wheeler as you mentioned, but playing with a LW who is lost defensively doesn't help either, as well as 20+ mins a night.
I would like to see what a Lowry-Wheeler combo does. Lowry has turned back the clock to 2017 and is scoring and driving possession again.
MelikeJets
Registered User
This! Something seriously wrong with 44. Hope he snaps out of it soon.
Based on what metrics?
In 2019-20, Blake Wheeler ranked #19 in 5v5 relative CF% (+3.75) and #12 in relative xGF% (+6.37) among RWs in 2019-20.
In 2019-20, Wheeler was the leader among Jets' forwards in expected goals +/- (xG +/-) according to Evolving Hockey's RAPM model.
Duke749
Savannah Ghost Pirates
There’s almost this subconscious assumption that as soon as a player turns 30 we expect a decline and therefore inadvertently look for reasons that we know will eventually happen even if in reality it hasn’t yet.
I'm not very intelligent, so I'm going to just enjoy the ONLY stat that actually matters.... 6-3-1. How they get there is, oh how they say, "above my pay grade".
It's really not of much use to trot out these sorts of stats (including plus/minus) at this stage of the season. I think it's obvious that Wheeler is off to a slow start for some reason, but so are a bunch of other very good players (as I've highlighted above). So far, Seth Jones is the worst D in the NHL based on xGAR, with Quinn Hughes and Ryan Suter also in the bottom 7.do they all have a 17% GF share too?
here's his GAR chart since i know you like GAR
again, early, only 10 games in, he's our captain etc. etc
Everyone knows that Wheeler is off to a slow start, but the circus around Wheeler is really ridiculous at this stage.
he's performed poorly compared to the rest of the team in this short sample of games. is it an indicator that he's done? no. but compared to the rest of the team through 10 games, he has not been great.
Teemusalami204
Registered User
Sometimes. Or everyone can see less backchecking and speed in general and wonder if it’s happening
After this season, I'd like to see Wheeler be bought out. His contract is far too expensive for what he brings. If he was earning around $ 4.5 to 5 mil, you could live with it, and it be OK -- but at $ 8.5 mil --- too much.
PhilJets
Winnipeg is Good
I see all Blake Wheeler in my social media thread.
That is a lot. And its all about his performance on ice nothing extra.
We have to understand on both side of the argument that there is a concern.
It might not be as big as few makes it to be but. It is already a concern.
He is 34 going to 35 and highest paid player.
There were few goals against that really he was coasting on his back checks.
Most people wants his minutes cut back not to put him in the minors. As there are better players than him on the roster now. So he can still perform at a reduced minutes.
We can all agree as a Jets fan this is the best for the Jets?
The main problem is the salary. That is overpayment for someone in that roll.
Imagine Perrault at 4M now, we can expect Wheeler at the same pace in 2 years at 8M. (Except wheeler can be good at power play so he can get points and help there).
Its father time. He is not 30 years old. He is mid 30s .
That is a lot. And its all about his performance on ice nothing extra.
We have to understand on both side of the argument that there is a concern.
It might not be as big as few makes it to be but. It is already a concern.
He is 34 going to 35 and highest paid player.
There were few goals against that really he was coasting on his back checks.
Most people wants his minutes cut back not to put him in the minors. As there are better players than him on the roster now. So he can still perform at a reduced minutes.
We can all agree as a Jets fan this is the best for the Jets?
The main problem is the salary. That is overpayment for someone in that roll.
Imagine Perrault at 4M now, we can expect Wheeler at the same pace in 2 years at 8M. (Except wheeler can be good at power play so he can get points and help there).
Its father time. He is not 30 years old. He is mid 30s .
I dunno, most of the media don't seem to have much of an issue with Wheeler, mainly just the guys that don't really know much about hockey so they focus more on the rumour and innuendo side of things.
The GM would get fired for that.- Status
