Bettman Plan - ran 100 times

Discussion in 'The Business of Hockey' started by John Flyers Fan, May 29, 2005.

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  1. John Flyers Fan

    John Flyers Fan Registered User

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    Just for the top pick using the Bettman plan

    Team - number of wins

    Predators - 8

    Kings - 7

    Thrashers - 6
    Blue Jackets
    Sabres
    Flames

    Ducks - 5
    Rangers

    Bruins - 4
    Oilers
    Sharks
    Lightning

    Flyers - 3
    Devils
    Penguins
    Blackhawks
    Wild
    Stars
    Hurricanes

    Isles - 2
    Senators
    Coyotes
    Panthers
    Caps

    Blues - 1
    Leafs
    Habs
    Canucks

    Red Wings - 0
    Avalanche
     
  2. Oilers Ent

    Oilers Ent Registered User

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    I really do like the Bettman plan quite a bit and I hope this is the method they choose. Anybody want to take a crack at the first 30 picks using the Bettman model? :)
     
  3. Isles72

    Isles72 Registered User

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    how long did it take to write all the names on paper , stuff em in a hat and draw a hundred times

    enquiring minds want to know :innocent:
     
  4. John Flyers Fan

    John Flyers Fan Registered User

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    Excel Spreadsheet and a random number generator. 5-7 minutes.
     
  5. MarkZackKarl

    MarkZackKarl Registered User

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    I did a mock draft and this is what I came up with.

    JFF: could you send me a PM explaining how to randomly generate lists in Excel? That would be sweet.

    Anyway, here's the breakdown:

    1. Pittsburgh
    2. Carolina
    3. Edmonton
    4. Columbus
    5. Buffalo
    6. Ottawa
    7. Washington
    8. New York Rangers
    9. Montreal
    10. New Jersey
    11. Nashville
    12. Dallas
    13. Florida
    14. Los Angeles
    15. Calgary
    16. Atlanta
    17. Vancouver
    18. Anaheim
    19. New York Islanders
    20. Minnesota
    21. San Jose
    22. Chicago
    23. Phoenix
    24. Tampa Bay
    25. Boston
    26. Toronto
    27. St. Louis
    28. Detroit
    29. Colorado
    30. Philadelphia
     
  6. John Flyers Fan

    John Flyers Fan Registered User

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    Not sure how to do that, I used Excel to assign numbers to teams

    Flyers - 1
    Devils - 2
    Isles - 3
    Rangers - 4,5,6,7
    Penguins - 8,9,10
    etc.
    etc.

    Then used a random number generator to run the drafts.

    I ran one full draft separate from just looking at #1 pick. Don't recall too much other than Ducks having the 1st pick and Atlanta having the 30th pick.
     
  7. Patman

    Patman Registered User

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    Stupid question, but consider my field of expertise in Mathematical Statistics (1st year Ph.D. student)... what's the point of a simulation when you can get exact probabilities? I know that a sim might be better if you need to get a rough idea of the chance of picking 3rd, 7th, or 19th, but not #1. A simulation can be useful in trying to put numbers into concievable realities but its no better at showing truth than a pixelated photo.
     
  8. John Flyers Fan

    John Flyers Fan Registered User

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    Probablities are nice .. but they won't provide Rangers fans much sympath if they end up with the 30th pick, when they are better odds than 29 or the 29 other teams.

    Also in case you haven't notices there is no playoff hockey to occupy our time. :D
     
  9. Enoch

    Enoch This is my boomstick

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    Sweet Jesus, Crosby is coming to the Preds!
     
  10. Patman

    Patman Registered User

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    True... I can't say i haven't employed a similar mindset... I like playing with and looking at random numbers myself but I also know that it can cloud one perception of truth because our nature tends to gravitate towards certain patterns... this is why people think they can beat the stock market. Does anybody have the Bettman plan anywhere team by team? I think I can do something a lot better with my calculator and a bit of time. If I could computer program better I could do something A LOT cooler, but alas, I suck at it.
     
  11. Mess

    Mess Global Moderator

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    I just took a deck of cards ... Assigned the 2's to Columbus and the 3's to the Rangers and each face card one of the bigger market teams and it works the same way ..
     
  12. Isles72

    Isles72 Registered User

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    that cant be as fun as picking out of a hat , no damn way :sarcasm:
     
  13. Oilers Ent

    Oilers Ent Registered User

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    Oilers in spot 3!?

    How about MA Pouliot + #3 Pick to Carolina for the #2 pick?

    Then Oilers can pick up Brule :)
     
  14. txomisc

    txomisc Registered User

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    Wow. Why is anyone wasting their time generating mock draft orders. Is this what we've come to? It has absolutely zero importance to anything. Are you all just bored or trying to accomplish something?
     
  15. Taxman

    Taxman Registered User

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    One question on Bettman's plan. Are all 30 picks being decided by the lottery? And if so, do the picks snake from round to round (pick 30 in 1st round gets pick 1 in 2nd round, etc).

    Thanks. :)
     
  16. John Flyers Fan

    John Flyers Fan Registered User

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    Yes, and yes.
     
  17. Sweet Jesus, we're going to bury Crosby in Nashville.
     
  18. London Knights

    London Knights Registered User

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    Nashville impressed me with the fan interest during the stretch to the playoffs and into the playoffs. But I have to agree. It would be nice to see Crosby wind up in a Canadian city, or New York, Philadelphia, Detroit, etc. A team where there is either the potential for massive media coverage, or where there is a good sports following already.

    Although I would be scared that the moment Crosby had a bad game if he was a Flyer that they would start booing him out of the building.
     
  19. R0CKET

    R0CKET Registered User

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    With the greatest odds, the best anyone can statistically get is something like 14 or 12 to 1.

    That's certainly not great odds that he will even go to a bad team and not way to much better than the upper echelon.

    While it is slightly weighted, its still pretty lousy odds uniformally for everyone so it just about as good of a shot for anyone.

    What I have to say that does kind of bother me though is what happens if 5 of the top 7 go to decent to very good teams? Then this is going to really suck IMO.
     
  20. King_Brown

    King_Brown Guest

    Crosby hates Toronto from what his dad said. Crosby needs Calgary, and needs to be with the best player in the world Jarome Iginla.
     
  21. Kritter471

    Kritter471 Registered User

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    Ahhh, but it's the chicken and the egg scenario.

    EVERY market has the potential for massive media coverage. That's why professional, major league sports teams are based in large cities rather than Podunk, Iowa. Look at the Phoenix Suns of the NBA, traditionally a wasteland in professional sports that has been embraced by the national media for a turnaround of a few short years. Who's to say if Crosby lands in Phoenix, the same won't happen with the Yotes?

    But the relatively larger markets (top-10 US TV markets and Toronto) will afford that opportunity sooner and with less risk of failure from an exposure/media standpoint. The fact that media scrutiny is already present will only heighten when a potential superstar, read: Crosby, comes to town, and with the NHL being so off-the-radar right now, bringing him into a large market may thrust the entire sport back onto a national stage automatically in a way a smaller market would have to work for.

    So it depends on what you're looking for. Are you looking to resurrect a franchise on a national stage (Phoenix, Columbus, Pittsburgh), bring a niche team into the mainstream spotlight (Edmonton, Vancouver, Minnesota) or strengthen the presence of an already established media power (Detroit, Colorado, New York) hoping it will bring the sport back to the forefront?

    All three have their merits...
     
  22. Johnnybegood13

    Johnnybegood13 Registered User

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    Scary how good Calgary would be with Crosby :eek:
     
  23. Jeffrey

    Jeffrey Registered User

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    he also said that he would like to play with the habs ..
    and the habs need Crosby ! ;)
     
  24. ceber

    ceber Registered User

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    One flukish season can really mess up your draft! Note to self: When you become GM of a team, make sure you think about when the CBA expires so you can be sure you don't overachieve ever in the years leading up to the next lockout. ;)
     
  25. Lobstertainment

    Lobstertainment Oh no, my brains.

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    Link?

    I've heard him say his choice of team was Montreal but never heard him say he hates a city or a team.
     
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