Better forward group: Tampa, Toronto or Other?

[Sidney the Kidney]

Gourde should decline in ES scoring I agree. Marner shot super high percentage on the PP and should regress there.

Did you not learn anything from your hyping of Jake Dotchin?

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Did you not learn anything from your hyping of Jake Dotchin?

Gourde didn’t spend all his time stapled to Hedman and actually has a full year under his belt

 

[Atomos2]

Why do you keep on bringing up Matthews in a Point/Tavares discussion? That's why I keep "avoiding that point". Because what Matthews gets paid is irrelevant to whether or not Point is better than Tavares or should get paid like a UFA Tavares.

Isn’t it obvious? Matthews projects to have a similar contract to Tavares. Why? Because he is a comparable player (franchise #1 centre). Therefore there comparison makes sense.

You on the other hand are project Point to have a much lower contract. So how in the world does that make them comparable when clearly (assuming the contract is correct) neither the league, the team nor the players agent see it that way.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Gourde didn’t spend all his time stapled to Hedman and actually has a full year under his belt

But the point is, you're basing your analysis of Gourde the same way you did of Dotchin -- extrapolating good advanced stats to the detriment of all else to determine how good they are.

Hockey's more than just who has the best CF% or who produced the best ES/60 numbers. And if you'd look beyond that type of stuff and actually analyze the strengths and weaknesses of their respective games, you'd see that Marner is a superior player to Gourde.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

But the point is, you're basing your analysis of Gourde the same way you did of Dotchin -- extrapolating good advanced stats to the detriment of all else to determine how good they are.

Hockey's more than just who has the best CF% or who produced the best ES/60 numbers. And if you'd look beyond that type of stuff and actually analyze the strengths and weaknesses of their respective games, you'd see that Marner is a superior player to Gourde.

I never used advanced stats to support dotchin lol

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Isn’t it obvious? Matthews projects to have a similar contract to Tavares. Why? Because he is a comparable player (franchise #1 centre). Therefore there comparison makes sense.

You on the other hand are project Point to have a much lower contract. So how in the world does that make them comparable when clearly (assuming the contract is correct) neither the league, the team nor the players agent see it that way.

How is this difficult to understand? The only players who get paid big, big money as RFAs off their ELC are the FRANCHISE sorts. The guys who are expected to lead their team for the next decade or so, like your McDavids, Matthews, and Eichels.

Point is not a franchise center, so comparing him to those RFAs is dumb. He's being compared to 28 year old Tavares, who was a UFA when he signed for $11 million. That's why it's a dumb comparison.

 

[PatriceBergeronFan]

Isn’t it obvious? Matthews projects to have a similar contract to Tavares. Why? Because he is a comparable player (franchise #1 centre). Therefore there comparison makes sense.

You on the other hand are project Point to have a much lower contract. So how in the world does that make them comparable when clearly (assuming the contract is correct) neither the league, the team nor the players agent see it that way.

This is foolish. Why didn't Tavares himself sign for $12 million after his entry level contract expired? Odd logic.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I never used advanced stats to support dotchin lol

Yes you did. I distinctly remember you going on about his possession stats and shutdown ability due to various defensive metrics.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Yes you did. I distinctly remember you going on about his possession stats and shutdown ability due to various defensive metrics.

No, I went on about his shutdown ability based on nothing but blind homerism.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

No, I went on about his shutdown ability based on nothing but blind homerism.

Okay, so then switching back to Gourde/Marner. If ES production trumps all, do you believe Gourde is on par with Crosby?

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Okay, so then switching back to Gourde/Marner. If ES production trumps all, do you believe Gourde is on par with Crosby?

Firstly I have mentioned things other than his Es production. Secondly no, Crosby is one of the top Es forwards in the league for his entire career and Gourde did shoot pretty high percentage so should regress some.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Firstly I have mentioned things other than his Es production. Secondly no, Crosby is one of the top Es forwards in the league for his entire career and Gourde did shoot pretty high percentage so should regress some.

So if Gourde is going to regress, by your own admission, what makes him on par to Marner? The only "statistical" edge he has is in ES scoring. But if even you admit he'll regress, then what gives him the edge? Defensive play? Even if that were true, defense only goes so far to offset a huge gap in offensive ability.

 

[IPS]

So if Gourde is going to regress, by your own admission, what makes him on par to Marner? The only "statistical" edge he has is in ES scoring. But if even you admit he'll regress, then what gives him the edge? Defensive play? Even if that were true, defense only goes so far to offset a huge gap in offensive ability.

There are a lot of ways you can push the Tampa > Toronto idea and you really don't need Gourde to be anywhere near Marner for it to work. I don't know why @DominicBoltsFan is so adamant on this.

 

[Atomos2]

How is this difficult to understand? The only players who get paid big, big money as RFAs off their ELC are the FRANCHISE sorts. The guys who are expected to lead their team for the next decade or so, like your McDavids, Matthews, and Eichels.

Point is not a franchise center, so comparing him to those RFAs is dumb. He's being compared to 28 year old Tavares, who was a UFA when he signed for $11 million. That's why it's a dumb comparison.

Tavares is a Franchise centre, Point is not. That’s why it’s a dumb comparison.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

I’d take Detroit/Montreal over both

 

[The Moose is Loose]

But yeah I’ll go Tampa here

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Tavares is a Franchise centre, Point is not. That’s why it’s a dumb comparison.

But using your own logic about "if he's that good, why didn't he get paid more", then why didn't Tavares get Crosby money when he was coming off his ELC? Tavares only got $5.5 million. If he's so good, why didn't he get more?

See how weak the argument is to base any conclusions on what a player gets paid? Or do you have an explanation for why a "franchise center" didn't get paid like one after his ELC?

 

[VoluntaryDom]

So if Gourde is going to regress, by your own admission, what makes him on par to Marner? The only "statistical" edge he has is in ES scoring. But if even you admit he'll regress, then what gives him the edge? Defensive play? Even if that were true, defense only goes so far to offset a huge gap in offensive ability.

Gourde has the edge defensively for sure, and doesn’t get to play with elite linemates usually (played some with Point but usually was on the third line and was the best player on his line). Gourde also got way more dzone starts. And the 5v5 scoring gap was huge, 2.66 to 1.93 5v5 p/60. They had identical iXGF meaning when their shooting percentages regress they should be equal 5v5 goal scorers. And Gourde kills Marner by primary assists at 5v5, 1.04 /60 compared to .66. Iirc Gourde’s OISH% was high but not nearly as high as his individual so he should not really regress much assists wise.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Gourde has the edge defensively for sure, and doesn’t get to play with elite linemates usually (played some with Point but usually was on the third line and was the best player on his line). Gourde also got way more dzone starts. And the 5v5 scoring gap was huge, 2.66 to 1.93 5v5 p/60. They had identical iXGF meaning when their shooting percentages regress they should be equal 5v5 goal scorers. And Gourde kills Marner by primary assists at 5v5, 1.04 /60 compared to .66. Iirc Gourde’s OISH% was high but not nearly as high as his individual so he should not really regress much assists wise.

So like I said, advanced stats tell you so.

The problem with relying exclusiving on what the advanced stats tell you and not applying any sort of common sense approach to it is it ignores the fact Marner is a more skilled playmaker. Simply watch both players play and you'll see it. Regardless of what any P/60 or primary assist stat suggests, Marner has more skill as a chance creator and I will bet you any amount he shows that this upcoming season and beyond (again, barring a career-altering injury).

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Also Gourde isn’t a “great shooter”, he scores a lot and shoots high percentage because he does his work at the net for the most part. Sort of like a Brendan Gallagher lite.

why do you say that? his ixgf/60 is the same as Marner's, and it's not particularly great

 

[VoluntaryDom]

why do you say that? his ixgf/60 is the same as Marner's, and it's not particularly great

Eh yeah, he doesn’t shoot a lot though. Gourde’s ratio of iXGF per shot is much higher than marner’s, pointing to him shooting from better spots and having a higher shooting percentage should be expected. (Not that his 17-18 was sustainable).

 

[VoluntaryDom]

So like I said, advanced stats tell you so.

The problem with relying exclusiving on what the advanced stats tell you and not applying any sort of common sense approach to it is it ignores the fact Marner is a more skilled playmaker. Simply watch both players play and you'll see it. Regardless of what any P/60 or primary assist stat suggests, Marner has more skill as a chance creator and I will bet you any amount he shows that this upcoming season and beyond (again, barring a career-altering injury).

Yes he should pass Gourde, like most 21 year olds should pass most 26 year olds in due time.

 

[Atomos2]

But using your own logic about "if he's that good, why didn't he get paid more", then why didn't Tavares get Crosby money when he was coming off his ELC? Tavares only got $5.5 million. If he's so good, why didn't he get more?

See how weak the argument is to base any conclusions on what a player gets paid? Or do you have an explanation for why a "franchise center" didn't get paid like one after his ELC?

Just for curiosity sake, how much do you think Point is worth? How much do you think this player, who’s more valuable than Tavares because he’s less valuable than Tavares, is worth?

I’d love to see your 1984 doublespeak in action

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Just for curiosity sake, how much do you think Point is worth? How much do you think this player, who’s more valuable than Tavares because he’s less valuable than Tavares, is worth?

I’d love to see your 1984 doublespeak in action

Do you even read what I write, or just read what you think I write? Point out where I said Point is more valuable or better than Tavares. Please, quote a single post of mine in this thread where I said that. In fact, I went out of my way in my first post to say I'm not even touching on whether or not Point is better/more valuable than Tavares.

My point, since the beginning, is how weak an argument it is to point to salary as some sort of "if he's this good, he should get the same as this guy". That has been my singular argument this entire time. Yet you keep coming back to "so you think Point is better than Tavares, herp derp?", despite the numerous times I've stated what my issue with your original argument is.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Eh yeah, he doesn’t shoot a lot though. Gourde’s ratio of iXGF per shot is much higher than marner’s, pointing to him shooting from better spots and having a higher shooting percentage should be expected. (Not that his 17-18 was sustainable).

well if you say so, although I wouldn't be shocked if they were about equally good goal scorers, but with Marner being a much better playmaker.