Better contract? Stutzle or Suzuki?

[AvroArrow]

Nah they just avoid scrums and contact. That is the difference, and a big difference.

View attachment 843135

And they make playoffs every year

Now if we can get back to the subject.

 

[Korpse]

And they make playoffs every year

Now if we can get back to the subject.

Make the playoffs and get immediately bounced cause they are heartless and soft.

 

[Strangle]

I'm gonna be a homer here but Suzuki is a much more complete player, playing a 200 ft game and being very strong on the PK. He's also much more respected around the league as being a class act and playing à la Bergeron compared to the gold medal olympic diver.

$8+ million for 70 points, the NHL salary inflation is crazy

I would expect at least a PPG player at $8+ million

Stutzle is a player I dislike, due to his Lebron James style of flopping all around the ice, but he seems overpaid

 

[Strangle]

The 2011 Canucks made it to the Stanley Cup finals and took it to 7 games against a quality opponent in the Boston Bruins.

Softness and not getting anywhere is a franchise player winning one series in 7 tries or a team captain winning 2 in 8 tries.

The Ottawa senators fans are very familiar with soft teams

At least the leafs fans are only going through it for the first time, and most of us refuse to accept it from the players and demand more from them

Sens fans just think that it’s normal, it’s all they’ve ever watched from their team since the beginning

Leafs losing in 7 games to quality opponents doesn’t matter? But it does when it’s the Canucks? What kind of sense does that make?

Vancouver played those teams in the finals, the leafs play those teams in the first round. I don’t see the difference, the lightning, panthers and bruins are all great teams.

Even Montreal made the finals.

The East is a slaughterhouse and has been for awhile

And don’t talk about playoff failures when your team can’t even get to the dance

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

100+ points in 2011 was significantly more difficult than today

Also LOL at calling Stutzle a physical forward

I mean he hits more than the average forward does

 

[Strangle]

I mean he hits more than the average forward does

The way the league records ‘hits’ is a joke. Most of them are ‘bumps’

There is barely any hitting in the league today

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Using 5v5 stats to compare players that are not even on the same teams is pointless. Too much factor going on. And for the record, I think Stutzle is the more valuable player because of the age gap and is edge offensivly

Do you think Suzuki's 5v5 linemates are holding him back?

Production wise we haven’t seen Suzuki’s ceiling. I’d wager he’ll have a few 90 points season when it’s all said and done.

I don't see a 90 point player in Suzuki. Even with a 18.5% shooting percentage, he's still only on pace for 78 points. He's just not a productive enough player at 5v5.

These are his 82 game paces at 5v5 for each year of his career:

• 8g 25p
• 13g 34p
• 9g 34p
• 14g 41p
• 17g 35p

It's really hard to score even 85 points with only 35-40 5v5 points. Of the 22 guys who scored 85+ points last year, only 2 had less than 45 5v5 points (Zibanejad and RNH), and they were both on two of the most lethal PP1 units in the league.

For Suzuki to reach 90 points, the Habs PP is going to have an incredible season, or something fundamental about his 5v5 play will need to change.

Stutzle might as well, I don’t watch him nearly enough to make a definitive answer.

Stutzle already has a 90 point season (95 point pace), and he did that as a 20/21 year old. Barring injury, I think it's extremely likely that he does it again.

I take Suzuki for his all around play.

Rel xGF% over the last 3 seasons:

Stutzle: 2.70
Suzuki: 0.77

This is the first year in the last 3 where Suzuki has had better possession metrics. And Stutzle is 2.5 years younger.

Both contracts are great bargain though especially 3-4 years from now

Stutzle is a bargain. This is the first season where Suzuki is really earning his contract. Hopefully he can continue, but I don't think it's ever going to look like a huge discount.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Stutzle is the better player and the age gap will make that more obvious in the next few years IMO.

so as a GM that’s clearly who I pick. As a fan however, it would be horrible having to cheer for a the dive king himself

 

[HuGo Sham]

Do you think you are more astute at evaluating two-way play than an actual Selke winner? Because Ryan O'Reilly disagrees with you. It's not just 'fans'.

https://x.com/Antho_Martineau/status/1765124121807962208?s=20

Stats also seem to back up the fact that Suzuki has played like one of the better two-way forward in the world in 23-24.

I'm not going to weigh in on the Stutzle or Suzuki debate, but I think it's bad faith analysis to dismiss the strides Suzuki has made in his defensive game. He may not produce like Stutzle, but until Stutzle shows the same level of two-way play, we can safely say Suzuki's got him beat there.

He plays for the habs...there's always an automatic correction when it comes to habs players - by other fanbases..

Nick quickly moving into one of the most underrated players in the league

 

[Golden_Jet]

The Ottawa senators fans are very familiar with soft teams

At least the leafs fans are only going through it for the first time,

Thanks for the entertainment today, Leafs have been one of the softest teams since Matthews joined.
Senators first in hits since Matthew’s joined.
Leafs 25th.
Probably time to stop with the hyperbole.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

 

[bud12]

Do you think Suzuki's 5v5 linemates are holding him back?

I don't see a 90 point player in Suzuki. Even with a 18.5% shooting percentage, he's still only on pace for 78 points. He's just not a productive enough player at 5v5.

View attachment 843133

These are his 82 game paces at 5v5 for each year of his career:

• 8g 25p
• 13g 34p
• 9g 34p
• 14g 41p
• 17g 35p

It's really hard to score even 85 points with only 35-40 5v5 points. Of the 22 guys who scored 85+ points last year, only 2 had less than 45 5v5 points (Zibanejad and RNH), and they were both on two of the most lethal PP1 units in the league.

For Suzuki to reach 90 points, the Habs PP is going to have an incredible season, or something fundamental about his 5v5 play will need to change.


Stutzle already has a 90 point season (95 point pace), and he did that as a 20/21 year old. Barring injury, I think it's extremely likely that he does it again.

Rel xGF% over the last 3 seasons:

Stutzle: 2.70
Suzuki: 0.77

This is the first year in the last 3 where Suzuki has had better possession metrics. And Stutzle is 2.5 years younger.

Stutzle is a bargain. This is the first season where Suzuki is really earning his contract. Hopefully he can continue, but I don't think it's ever going to look like a huge discount.

This year? Yes, definetly with Caufield atrocious shooting% and no Slaf for near half the year

 

[NyQuil]

Leafs losing in 7 games to quality opponents doesn’t matter? But it does when it’s the Canucks? What kind of sense does that make?

Vancouver played those teams in the finals, the leafs play those teams in the first round. I don’t see the difference, the lightning, panthers and bruins are all great teams.

Even Montreal made the finals.

The East is a slaughterhouse and has been for awhile

And don’t talk about playoff failures when your team can’t even get to the dance

Toronto has the dubious record of never playing 4 rounds of playoff hockey in their entire history.

Wake me up when that happens and maybe I'll take your lecture seriously.

Ottawa played the Bruins in the 1st round in 2017 and won. So it's not some kind of impossible task.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Toronto has the dubious record of never playing 4 rounds of playoff hockey in their entire history.

Wake me up when that happens and maybe I'll take your lecture seriously.

Ottawa played the Bruins in the 1st round in 2017 and won. So it's not some kind of impossible task.

Oof never won more than 2 rounds, ever

Only 3 teams haven’t made the finals in the last 20 years. Columbus,Leafs and Seattle.

 

[Ligue]

Stutzle and it's not close. Are people forgetting he had 90 points last year in only 78 games?

Suzuki is currently enjoying a career high in shooting percentage, while Stutzle is suffering from a career low. And their production is still nearly identical this year.

Last 2 years:
Stutzle
57 goals 158 points in 150gp

Suzuki
56 goals 135 points in 156gp

Stutzle is 2+ years younger. This isn't close.

To be the devil's advocate on this (I do believe the answer is Stutzle btw) but those arguments are seriously flawed the way they are presented.

Suzuki enjoying a career high in shooting percentage is a very fair point, however wouldn't that also apply to Stutzle last year or you expecting 17%+ should be the norm for him going forward ?

Suzuki being 2+ years older shouldn't have that much of an impact on the question at hand unless you believe he'll be washed by the end of his contract.

Maybe in the 2 years ahead Stutzle will get to a level significantly higher than the one he achieved last year is what you meant ? Sure if he takes that EP step then it won't be close but it's hard to say at this point in time that he'll take it.

 

[NyQuil]

Suzuki being 2+ years older shouldn't have that much of an impact on the question at hand unless you believe he'll be washed by the end of his contract.

Maybe in the 2 years ahead Stutzle will get to a level significantly higher than the one he achieved last year is what you meant ? Sure if he takes that EP step then it won't be close but it's hard to say at this point in time that he'll take it.

Suzuki is currently having his career season at 24.

I don't see why it's a stretch to believe that Stutzle didn't peak at 21 years old.

Again, the age difference between Suzuki and Stutzle is roughly the same as between Stutzle and Slafkovsky. It's not insignificant.

 

[Ligue]

Suzuki is currently having his career season at 24.

I don't see why it's a stretch to believe that Stutzle didn't peak at 21 years old.

Again, the age difference between Suzuki and Stutzle is roughly the same as between Stutzle and Slafkovsky. It's not insignificant.

I'm absolutely not saying it is a stretch Stutzle will peak higher than his 21 year old season. I'm just saying he may not blow that production out of the water later but still become a much better player down the line.
Like better all around player than he was and producing at similar clips but with much more conservative shooting percentages.

At the same time something similar could apply to Suzuki. Having 80 point seasons (not expecting 30 goals from him though) and getting better all around as well with lower shooting percentages. He'll never be as much of a scorer as Stutzle though.

 

[NyQuil]

I'm absolutely not saying it is a stretch Stutzle will peak higher than his 21 year old season. I'm just saying he may not blow that production out of the water later but still become a much better player down the line.
Like better all around player than he was and producing at similar clips but with much more conservative shooting percentages.

This is a valid point.

A lot of people cite the fact that NHL players "peak" in their early to mid 20s but I think that this is more of a statistical offensive peak.

They often fail to realize that veteran players not only pace themselves a bit to leave something for the post-season but that they are also less likely to gamble offensively and play a more sound all-around game.

The fact that scoring has hit a bit of a bump recently is muddying the waters somewhat.

 

[NikolaTesla]

Im eager to see Suzuki's production when the habs have 2 good lines so hes not the only one playing against the opposing top line.

Also, let's see whom of Suzuki or Stutlze gets a selke nomination this year

 

[Sam de Mtl]

I like Suzuki better, but Stutzle is the better player for the future.

I don't think I would make the trade for Montreal though as this isn't fantasy hockey. Teams, leadership and culture matter. Suzuki is the captain, you don't trade him without valid reason.

 

[HabzSauce]

Suzuki.

Stutzle may put up more points but Suzuki is the better overall player. Impacts the game at a higher level. And he's already shown to be a gamer in the playoffs.

And right now, Habs are a one line team asking Suzuki to do everything without much help. I wouldn't be surprised if Suzuki ends up with more points than Stutzle once our team gets better. He is so underrated.

And he doesn't dive!!!

 

[NyQuil]

Im eager to see Suzuki's production when the habs have 2 good lines so hes not the only one playing against the opposing top line.

Same. Can't wait until we have a #2C for more than half the games.

Basically it's Stutzle out there by himself with Norris injured and Pinto suspended.

I expect Stutzle's PP numbers to catch up to Suzuki at which point the gap will be even larger.

 

[Sensators]

I think this is close, stutzle has not been good this year and playing with Giroux 5v5 past 2 years has been nice. I'm still going with Stu because he's younger and ottawas PP being absolute trash has contributed to his poor output (as mtrls being trash last yr contributed to suzukis). Stutzle can and needs to be a lot better than he has been this year and Suzuki has been a lot better this year.

Stutzle has never dived in his life I dunno what you guys are goin on about.. roll the tapes

 

[GrandmaCookie]

I am never a homer in these type of thread and don’t give a shit about contracts, but I would be against any trade where Suzuki and Stutzle are involved as main core pieces. Suzuki is a complete player and his calm temperament works best in clutch moment such as the playoffs. This type of solid, two-way, smart and constant while still being a near PPG player is perfect for Montreal. As a matter of fact, I don't see Ottawa having the pieces to acquire Nick Suzuki.

 

[Revansky]

I would take Stutzle because of his higher ceiling offensively even as a Habs fan. He's younger and not a finish product yet. But if Suzuki can maintain a better pace next year with better production from his linemates and bump his production around 80-85 points their overall impact could be similar even if Stutzle produce around 90-95 points again.

I really like Stutzle. It was a great long term signing for sens. The norris one though, a bit meh at the moment. Hope for you guys, he'll get back to his pre-injury level.

 

[Ezpz]

Stutzle's peak so far was higher than Nick's but Stutzle was also handed the keys to the kingdom immediately. Nick's inarguably better at everything but scoring but that's typically the determining factor in pay. Even now despite what Sens fans say he has a much stronger supporting cast. The Habs forward depth is three players. Sens had 5 guys who would be second or third in scoring amongst the Habs forwards and basically their entire top 9 (eight of nine) is outscoring our fourth highest.

I don't think I'd trade Nick for Stutzle if I were building a contender but Stutzle is almost exactly what the Habs need in their center depth. I suspect their numbers will be closer next year as well as Nick will finally have two wingers for an entire season and Caufield's shoulder should be fully recovered.

edit: Guess I didn't answer the question. I think Stutzle is narrowly ahead but I don't think it's far.