Barkov vs Eichel vs Matthews vs Draisaitl

Barkov vs Eichel vs Matthews vs Draisaitl

  • Barkov

  • Eichel

  • Matthews

  • Draisaitl


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93LEAFS

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You realize his most common line mates at forward sans McDavid are: Rieder, Chiasson, and Lucic.

Rieder has 0 goals in 62 games and Lucic 5 in 74. 5 goals in 136 games combined.
You still point to plus/minus or goal-differential. Over 3 full seasons, his line only has a 40% goal differential when he doesn't play with McDavid. The only time he's positive is with McDavid. His numbers and production without him implode. You seem to constantly ignore that when pointing to his 100 points, which is pretty much driven by playing with McDavid. You really think he's getting 100 points playing with Hyman and Nylander, or Kapanen and Johnson, and getting less PP time? You don't think Matthews would approach 100 points primarily playing with McDavid at 5v5 and getting more PP time with him? Draisaitl still an elite player. But, to ignore that and the significant ice-time advantage is disingenuous. Matthews produces better on a per-minute basis and when he's asked to be the best player on his line, it has a way better goal-differential than Draisaitl when he is asked to lead a line. You want to point to PPG and plus-minus relative to team, and ignore those factors.

You point to Matthews lack of playmaking which is partially driven by not playing with a player who converts at a high-rate (or having the PP run through him), but then use linemates to say why Drai doesn't produce without McDavid.

Look there are arguments against Matthews. Since his rookie year he hasn't stayed healthy, and his contract has probably the least value of the 4. But, he's also produced the best at comparable ages. He's been the 2nd best goal scorer in the league since he entered it. But, you seem to overlook the flaws with Drai, which is, he's the only one who hasn't produced consistently like an elite player when asked to be a center or be away from McDavid outside of the Anaheim series. He is by far put in the easiest situation to produce the numbers you are favoring.
 

93LEAFS

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He sucks at defense.
How did he lead his team in +/- the year before then? Or, is plus/minus a pretty terrible stat to examine things, even in the context of a team. It's pretty much useless at indicating who are the best players in the league since the mid to late 80's. Unless you want to start telling me Ron Hainsey is an elite shut-down defender which only emerged at the age of 38.
 

BertMcDrai

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How did he lead his team in +/- the year before then? Or, is plus/minus a pretty terrible stat to examine things, even in the context of a team. It's pretty much useless at indicating who are the best players in the league since the mid to late 80's. Unless you want to start telling me Ron Hainsey is an elite shut-down defender which only emerged at the age of 38.

you are right with the year before, but 2 years before he was also mediocre on his team in +/-.

But I can agree with you that +/- don´t tell the hole story in being good defensively. That being said, it seems like he is cheating for offense maybe cause of his big contract...but who knows...what I can respect is being NHL ready at such a young age and his shooting...but playmaking isn´t one of his strength while the others have no (big) issues in their games.
I think it´s early for all of them to argue which one is/will be the best but I guess they are all close at some point.
 

93LEAFS

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you are right with the year before, but 2 years before he was also mediocre on his team in +/-.

But I can agree with you that +/- don´t tell the hole story in being good defensively. That being said, it seems like he is cheating for offense maybe cause of his big contract...but who knows...what I can respect is being NHL ready at such a young age and his shooting...but playmaking isn´t one of his strength while the others have no (big) issues in their games.
I think it´s early for all of them to argue which one is/will be the best but I guess they are all close at some point.
He was a 19-year-old rookie center, asked to be the #1 center for a team? I'd be pretty surprised if there are many examples of players with better than mediocre plus/minus at that point.

I don't get your last point. Playmaking isn't a big issue for Matthews. None of them have big issues. The biggest issue that any of them have is either Matthews inability to stay healthy the last 2 seasons (something that also plagued Eichel and Barkov early on) or Draisaitl's lack of production without McDavid. Matthews assist rate at 5v5 is slightly worse than the other 3, and mainly shows up in secondary assists. Look at these numbers since Matthews entered the league

Primary assists at 5v5 per 60
Matthews: .71
Draisaitl: .93
Eichel: .78
Barkov: .85

Secondary assists at 5v5 per 60
Matthews: .34
Draisaitl: .52
Eichel: .46
Barkov: .54

These assist difference are more than off-set by the difference in goals per-60 at 5v5.

Goals at 5v5 per 60
Matthews: 1.55
Draisaitl: .86
Eichel: .80
Barkov: .83

Matthews has a higher goal per 60 at 5v5 than any of them have assists per 60 at 5v5, and has a higher assists per 60 at 5v5 than any of them have goals per 60 at 5v5. This year, Matthews is also getting assists at a rate at 5v5 which is pretty much on par with Barkov and Draisaitl. The place where his assists drop the most relative to Eichel, Barkov and Drai, is secondary PP assists (he has the highest primary assist rate on the PP than any of them). This is primarily fueled by 2 factors. One, if the Leafs score on the PP with Matthews on, he's generally the finisher or shoots a shot that creates a rebound or a quick pass to JT. Or, the PP is reset from his wing, which leads to it passed back to Rielly, who then lays it off to Marner. From there, Marner either sets up Matthews shot, or uses his shoot to set up a deflection by Kadri or Tavares.
 

BertMcDrai

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He was a 19-year-old rookie center, asked to be the #1 center for a team? I'd be pretty surprised if there are many examples of players with better than mediocre plus/minus at that point.

I don't get your last point. Playmaking isn't a big issue for Matthews. None of them have big issues. The biggest issue that any of them have is either Matthews inability to stay healthy the last 2 seasons (something that also plagued Eichel and Barkov early on) or Draisaitl's lack of production without McDavid. Matthews assist rate at 5v5 is slightly worse than the other 3, and mainly shows up in secondary assists. Look at these numbers since Matthews entered the league

Primary assists at 5v5 per 60
Matthews: .71
Draisaitl: .93
Eichel: .78
Barkov: .85

Secondary assists at 5v5 per 60
Matthews: .34
Draisaitl: .52
Eichel: .46
Barkov: .54

These assist difference are more than off-set by the difference in goals per-60 at 5v5.

Goals at 5v5 per 60
Matthews: 1.55
Draisaitl: .86
Eichel: .80
Barkov: .83

Matthews has a higher goal per 60 at 5v5 than any of them have assists per 60 at 5v5, and has a higher assists per 60 at 5v5 than any of them have goals per 60 at 5v5. This year, Matthews is also getting assists at a rate at 5v5 which is pretty much on par with Barkov and Draisaitl. The place where his assists drop the most relative to Eichel, Barkov and Drai, is secondary PP assists (he has the highest primary assist rate on the PP than any of them). This is primarily fueled by 2 factors. One, if the Leafs score on the PP with Matthews on, he's generally the finisher or shoots a shot that creates a rebound or a quick pass to JT. Or, the PP is reset from his wing, which leads to it passed back to Rielly, who then lays it off to Marner. From there, Marner either sets up Matthews shot, or uses his shoot to set up a deflection by Kadri or Tavares.

Okay, thanks for your details.
I don´t know how long it takes to summarize these stats, but thanks for your work.


Goals at 5v5 per 60 for Matthews are impressive and I will admit that.

Personally, i don´t like these per60 stats. You could now say it´s because they don´t support my position and it´s true in this case.
But what counts at the end of the day? It´s the Points you have got and not how many could have had :)

Last three seasons:
Draisaitl PPG 1.04 --> GP 236
Barkov PPG 1,00 --> GP 217
Eichel PPG 0.985 --> GP 199
Matthews PPG 0.98 --> GP 207

And the PPG are the stats which helps the players with less games, do you agree?

So with other words we will both find stats which supports our player(s), but for true production I think there is a small case (at this point) for Drai and Yes he plays with Connor but this year has shown (me included) that he doesn´t need McD as much as people think...the few games without McD in the lineup Drai exploded and was a beast cause he has to be the go to guy in these games and he has delivered.

EDIT: One thing is fact, they are all elite players :)
 

Fourier

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A bit disingenuous to not point out all the other 3 are asked to be the best players on their line. What do you think happens if Matthews gets to be McDavid's LWer for a season?

You know what Draisaitl's GF% percentage at 5v5 without McDavid this year? 37%.

How many times does this point have to be addressed? Who is he playing with when not with McDavid? The vast majority of his time away from McDavid this year is with Rieder and Chiasson. Rieder has 0 goals this year despite having been set up many times. Chiasson was a PTO. The next most common combo is Lucic and Yamamoto.

Then ask who are the defensemen on the ice at the same time. There is no Rielly or Gardiner to play with especially with Klefbom and Sekera out for so much of the time. Why not speculate on how Matthews would produce playing with Rieder and Chaisson or Lucic and Yamamoto as his line mates rather than focusing on him with McDavid. But as far as Matthews with McDavid? We don't know. McDavid probably lifts Matthews. I suspect Matthews scores 50 with McDavid. But does Matthews lift McDavid? Draisaitl most definitely does.
 

Beezeral

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Mar 1, 2010
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The funniest thing ITT is people trashing Barkov’s defensive game. Yes. He hasn’t been as good as last year defensively, but he’s still the best defensive player of the 4 and it’s not even close. What has happened this year is that he’s matched/passed some of these guys offensively. Progression isn’t linnear and Barkov is turning into a 90 point player who gives elite defense. Hard to make arguments for anyone of these 4 to be above him right now
 

BertMcDrai

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The funniest thing ITT is people trashing Barkov’s defensive game. Yes. He hasn’t been as good as last year defensively, but he’s still the best defensive player of the 4 and it’s not even close. What has happened this year is that he’s matched/passed some of these guys offensively. Progression isn’t linnear and Barkov is turning into a 90 point player who gives elite defense. Hard to make arguments for anyone of these 4 to be above him right now

I don´t really know if the argument that Barkov is the best defensive player of these four is true...maybe you are right and i will admit that if it´s so...but elite defense?
How can you be -11 on a team with -19 when you are true elite? I am not the biggest fan of these +/- stats, but over the course of a season and in context with the team +/- it´s not out of place.

So you can be right that he is the best defensive player of these four, but the distance between him and the others can not be so big as you want to tell us.
 

93LEAFS

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How many times does this point have to be addressed? Who is he playing with when not with McDavid? The vast majority of his time away from McDavid this year is with Rieder and Chiasson. Rieder has 0 goals this year despite having been set up many times. Chiasson was a PTO. The next most common combo is Lucic and Yamamoto.

Then ask who are the defensemen on the ice at the same time. There is no Rielly or Gardiner to play with especially with Klefbom and Sekera out for so much of the time. Why not speculate on how Matthews would produce playing with Rieder and Chaisson or Lucic and Yamamoto as his line mates rather than focusing on him with McDavid. But as far as Matthews with McDavid? We don't know. McDavid probably lifts Matthews. I suspect Matthews scores 50 with McDavid. But does Matthews lift McDavid? Draisaitl most definitely does.
It's a 3-year trend with Drai. McDavid's goal differential until this year basically held without Drai, they didn't for Draisaitl. Its not off just one season of data. Until Draisaitl plays at an elite level for a significant period of time at center and away from McDavid, it will always be a question.

Matthews would probably produce better than Drai with the bad players, primarily due to the fact he's the better 5v5 goal scorer. Matthews has never played with an elite line-mate for any length of time in Toronto. Are they better than Rieder, Chiasson, Lucic and Yamamoto? Yes. But, he produced at a high-end level when he played with Hyman and Connor Brown as a 19-year-old rookie. Nylander is a good player, but has never excelled to a high-level away from Matthews.
 

93LEAFS

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Okay, thanks for your details.
I don´t know how long it takes to summarize these stats, but thanks for your work.


Goals at 5v5 per 60 for Matthews are impressive and I will admit that.

Personally, i don´t like these per60 stats. You could now say it´s because they don´t support my position and it´s true in this case.
But what counts at the end of the day? It´s the Points you have got and not how many could have had :)

Last three seasons:
Draisaitl PPG 1.04 --> GP 236
Barkov PPG 1,00 --> GP 217
Eichel PPG 0.985 --> GP 199
Matthews PPG 0.98 --> GP 207

And the PPG are the stats which helps the players with less games, do you agree?

So with other words we will both find stats which supports our player(s), but for true production I think there is a small case (at this point) for Drai and Yes he plays with Connor but this year has shown (me included) that he doesn´t need McD as much as people think...the few games without McD in the lineup Drai exploded and was a beast cause he has to be the go to guy in these games and he has delivered.

EDIT: One thing is fact, they are all elite players :)
What ultimately matters is your team winning and your team's goal differential when you are on the ice. How you contribute to accomplish that is what matters most. Not total points. It's about the overall utility of your players.

All 3 forms of measuring points have issues.

Total points: Players play too much and get points but it is inflated because of their ice-time. They aren't efficient.

Points per game: Again, influenced by total ice-time

Points per 60: Benefit's players with lower ice-time and situational usage.

A player who produces at a level like Matthews who plays low-end 1st line minutes, would most likely produce more points with 3 more minutes a game of ice-time. Now, it may hurt his per 60 production, but his overall production will likely go up. Now, if we reduce someone like Drai's minutes there efficiency will probably slightly improve. But, neither is guaranteed.
 

BertMcDrai

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What ultimately matters is your team winning and your team's goal differential when you are on the ice. How you contribute to accomplish that is what matters most. Not total points. It's about the overall utility of your players.

All 3 forms of measuring points have issues.

Total points: Players play too much and get points but it is inflated because of their ice-time. They aren't efficient.

Points per game: Again, influenced by total ice-time

Points per 60: Benefit's players with lower ice-time and situational usage.

A player who produces at a level like Matthews who plays low-end 1st line minutes, would most likely produce more points with 3 more minutes a game of ice-time. Now, it may hurt his per 60 production, but his overall production will likely go up. Now, if we reduce someone like Drai's minutes there efficiency will probably slightly improve. But, neither is guaranteed.

I do agree with your points...all forms have their issues....
but when you say "what ultimately matters is your team winning and your team's goal differential when you are on the ice"
That being said, that means Matthews is pretty sh** this year with -4 on a team with +42?
So you are saying Matthews is not good and Drai is good with his +7 on a team with -32 :)

Thank you for that little own goal, that means (maybe in future) you could be a fan of Drai cause you have supported him with your definition of good :)
 

93LEAFS

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I do agree with your points...all forms have their issues....but when you say "what ultimately matters is your team winning and your team's goal differential when you are on the ice"
,
that being said, that means Matthews is pretty sh** this year with -4 on a team with +42?
So you are saying Matthews is not good and Drai is good with his +7 on a team with -32 :)

Thank you for that little own goal, that means (maybe in future) you could be a fan of Drai cause you have supported hin with your definition of good :)
It needs to be over a large sample. Plus/Minus is also very flawed in how it is constructed. Especially over a one-season sample. I mean, Matthews at 5V5 has a GF% of 55.74, Drai has one of 51.51 since they entered the league. When Drai hasn't played with McDavid, he has one of 40% over that time period, and one of 37% this year. Matthews has one of 50% this year.

You also took a quote out of context to try to win an argument. Total points isn't the most valued thing. How you help your team accomplish the goal of winning is. Matthews playing LW with Tavares and Marner would have a very high GF% for. It would probably be terrible for the Leafs, because it would kill the teams depth. Matthews is heavily valued because without elite-linemates, he generally is on the winning side of goal differential.
 

The Winter Soldier

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Not of enough focus on defensive metrics in this thread. I just posted this in another thread. I am going to expand on it to include Barkov and Eichel in a follow up post. But the point is worth noting.

Matthews is 8th worst in the NHL 5 v 5. Lumped in with quite a few Ottawa Senator players which should be no surprise to anyone since they are pretty bad this year in GA.

Toggle to GA60, then click it twice, and work your way up from the list. For players to have played a minimum of 600 TOI in the entire NHL, Matthews is now 8th worst in GA60, Draisaitl 71st worst as of today.

Which tells me Matthews plays a lot of high event hockey at both ends of the ice, whereas Draisaitl has played a more complete game at both ends of the ice.

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick
 
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The Winter Soldier

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Continuation of the post above measuring defensive metrics and impacts for 5 v 5 play. Used 600 TOI to allow for a large enough sampling. Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Barkov is 53rd worst in GA60, Which is quite respectable due to Florida being a tire fire defensively this year at 29th in GA.
Draisaitl is 71st worst in GA60 on a Edmonton team who are the 24th in GA.
Eichel is 16th worst in GA60 on Buffalo who are 23rd in GA
Matthews is 8th worst in GA60 on Toronto who are 17th in GA.

For me the stand out stats are Barkov and Draisaitl. Both play on bad defensive teams, and the GA60 are quite respectable, and they are are able to produce at a high rate. Suggesting both play complete games. And not solely on offence.
 

Walter Sobchak

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I take Matthews.

All three are great players and I don't think you could go wrong choosing either one but Matthews is, in my opinion, a cut above the other three.

Injuries have curtailed his break out and the contract, along with the comparisons to McDavid during his unreal first month of the season this year, have soured people on projecting his ability but the kid is a beast.

207 NHL games = 110 goals scored = .53 GPG

Babcock is working hard to turn Matthews into a responsible 200 foot player and his overall game is developing. He nose for the net is elite, high end top 2 in the league elite. He is 21.

I watch him play a lot. I also watch a lot of Barkov, Eichel and Draisitl. Matthews has that extra something in my opinion and on top of it he just naturally knows how to score. Pure, unabridged, goal scorer. I think by this time next year everyone will have to face the fact that Matthews is on another level.

But this, again, is just my opinion.

1. Matthews
2. Barkov
3. Draisitl
4. Eichel

2-4 are interchangeable in my opinion and selection would come down to what the rest of my team looks like.

* I would also like to note, even though I think Matthews is the best of the bunch and that he will eventually clearly separate himself from the rest I do not think the gap between him and the rest is now, or ever will be huge.
 

Plural

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I voted Matthews. I can see an argument for Barkov too. People comparing their p/60 are not being really honest here. Barkov started to produce much more when Trocheck came back and his TOI was lowered. More TOI is not linear increase to production and it infuriates me when people act like it is.

That said, Matthews when he plays to his abilities is the best of the bunch. He's not quite as assertive and consistent than I would like him to be, but there's time to fix that. I'm bit worried about his injury history but the only guy I'd think over him, Barkov, has had some serious injury issues himself.
 
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Soliloquy of a Dogge

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That's a fair point this season and you could certainly make a convincing case that Draisaitl is having the better season. No issue there.

There is no case to be made that he's not. Draisaitl is absolutely blowing away Matthews' season this year. In fact, he is putting up the totals Leafs fans hope Matthews can peak at in a career year.

"Make a convincing case"... hilarious.
 

93LEAFS

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I voted Matthews. I can see an argument for Barkov too. People comparing their p/60 are not being really honest here. Barkov started to produce much more when Trocheck came back and his TOI was lowered. More TOI is not linear increase to production and it infuriates me when people act like it is.

That said, Matthews when he plays to his abilities is the best of the bunch. He's not quite as assertive and consistent than I would like him to be, but there's time to fix that. I'm bit worried about his injury history but the only guy I'd think over him, Barkov, has had some serious injury issues himself.
Barkov is also having his best year on a per minute basis (partially caused by an uptick in league scoring), while playing more per game than he ever has.

Month to month stuff is always going to have fluctuations.

It isn't linear, but neither is the logic that playing less minutes will automatically increase efficiency on a per minute basis. Barkov regardless of minutes has pretty much stayed between 2.19/per 60 and 2.31/per at 5v5 60 since the start of the 2015 season. So, his production hasn't dramatically dipped when he started getting more minutes at 5v5.

Now, there are weird things which are always going to make production tricky to examine. Teams PP's tend to run hot/cold, and can dramatically influence scoring especially on a per minute basis if you don't isolate it to certain situations. The other is, teams tend to play star offensive players more when chasing a game in the 3rd period which can hurt productivity, and star offensive players tend to be more efficient and play less when their team is leading. It also has to be examined where those extra minutes are coming from whether it is PP time, SH time or ES time.
 

Fourier

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It's a 3-year trend with Drai. McDavid's goal differential until this year basically held without Drai, they didn't for Draisaitl. Its not off just one season of data. Until Draisaitl plays at an elite level for a significant period of time at center and away from McDavid, it will always be a question.

Matthews would probably produce better than Drai with the bad players, primarily due to the fact he's the better 5v5 goal scorer. Matthews has never played with an elite line-mate for any length of time in Toronto. Are they better than Rieder, Chiasson, Lucic and Yamamoto? Yes. But, he produced at a high-end level when he played with Hyman and Connor Brown as a 19-year-old rookie. Nylander is a good player, but has never excelled to a high-level away from Matthews.

Matthews is an incredible goal scorer. But there is more to production than goal scoring. In his rookie year Matthews did score 29 5 vs 5 goals which is exceptional, but he also only had 12 5 vs 5 assists. And while he did this with Hyman as a primary linemate he did also have not only Nylander but also Reilly and Gardiner to support him. In fact those three had primary assists on 10 of his goals.

Until his recent slump Laine would have been a guy you could point to as being an elite goal scorer on Matthews level. But he is not a guy who is an elite point producer because his goal scoring is far above other aspects of his game. Up until this year Draisaitl was not on Matthews level as a goal scorer. But he spent a lot of time in the off season working on his shot. I still don't think he is on Matthews level but he has most certainly closed the gap. Both players are fantastic at protecting the puck. What I am not sure of is if Matthews passing abilities will ever be at Draisaitl's level. Draisaitl's passing skills are elite. But when he is away from McDavid he's playing with guys with hands of stone. I don't see Matthews getting a whole lot of goals out of this year's version of Rieder. This is also why I asked if Matthews would elevate McDavid's game. It's not at all clear to me that he would to the same degree Draisaitl does. Leon helps McDavid as much as McDavid helps Leon. It's quite uncanny.

If the two players were all of a sudden declared to be UFA's I have no doubt that Matthews would be the choice of most GM's. But I am not sure it would be 100% unanimous. And even it was these two are a lot closer than most seem to think. Personally I think Matthews is the better of the two. But the premise that Leon rides McDavid's coat tails is ridiculous.
 

93LEAFS

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Matthews is an incredible goal scorer. But there is more to production than goal scoring. In his rookie year Matthews did score 29 5 vs 5 goals which is exceptional, but he also only had 12 5 vs 5 assists. And while he did this with Hyman as a primary linemate he did also have not only Nylander but also Reilly and Gardiner to support him. In fact those three had primary assists on 10 of his goals.

Until his recent slump Laine would have been a guy you could point to as being an elite goal scorer on Matthews level. But he is not a guy who is an elite point producer because his goal scoring is far above other aspects of his game. Up until this year Draisaitl was not on Matthews level as a goal scorer. But he spent a lot of time in the off season working on his shot. I still don't think he is on Matthews level but he has most certainly closed the gap. Both players are fantastic at protecting the puck. What I am not sure of is if Matthews passing abilities will ever be at Draisaitl's level. Draisaitl's passing skills are elite. But when he is away from McDavid he's playing with guys with hands of stone. I don't see Matthews getting a whole lot of goals out of this year's version of Rieder. This is also why I asked if Matthews would elevate McDavid's game. It's not at all clear to me that he would to the same degree Draisaitl does. Leon helps McDavid as much as McDavid helps Leon. It's quite uncanny.

If the two players were all of a sudden declared to be UFA's I have no doubt that Matthews would be the choice of most GM's. But I am not sure it would be 100% unanimous. And even it was these two are a lot closer than most seem to think. Personally I think Matthews is the better of the two. But the premise that Leon rides McDavid's coat tails is ridiculous.
I don't think Leon just rides McDavid's coat-tails. He's an elite player. But, the drop off Drai experiences away from McDavid over the past 3 years is way bigger than McDavid's drop off without Drai. Now, I know McDavid generally gets the better line-mates, but it's sizable to say it is an equal relationship. The other is that Matthews, Eichel and Barkov have the responsibility of being a full-time center, whereas Draisaitl doesn't when he's with McDavid. Until he proves he can be an elite center, that is always going to be a question asked when he is compared to elite centers.

Marner, for example, is killing it with Tavares this year, putting up some very impressive counting stats and rates. Matthews is still the most talented player on the team.
 

KidLine93

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It can be weird when comparing players who don't play the same amount of minutes, especially players who don't play a lot at all, sure.

Matthews and Draisaitl are similarly used players.

And there's always a couple of outliers every season in p/60 but then they go away. Matthews and Draisaitl have been in the top 20 over the course of three years. They're not outliers.


On corsica, I'm seeinng Draisatl at 2.31 (18th) and Matthews at 2.57 (5th) since 2016-17.

Also consider that Matthews was a teenager for most of that and Draisaitl plays with McDavid.
Also consider how stacked the leafs roster is whereas on Edmonton the talent outside of those 2 (RNH to an extent but those 3 cant be on the same line) falls off a cliff
 
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