Auston Matthews vs Patrik Laine - Round V (MOD WARNING: BEHAVE!)

[4thline]

I'll say again, in a tournament like this watching how they do things is way more important than what they do in terms of output. Laine's demonstration of raw tools at this level at this age is what's impressive, the numbers don't really add much one way or the other.

 

[Randal61]

Pulj was supposed to be 2nd overall to WJC, when everyone began to notice Laine more and more.

ISS ranked Pulj 2nd overall in their latest rankings.

TBH, Matthews and Pulj are similar in that they bring complete elite two way games. The only reason Matthews is going 1st is because he brings a more elite two-way game than Pulj. Laine is going to go 2nd overall, even though his defensive side is atrocious, because his offensive game is so rare.

I think the top-3 is very close in my mind. Before the Leafs even won the lottery, in my mind it was Matthews 1st overall, and then Laine/Pulj for 2nd. But Laine's recent efforts are putting him more ahead of Pulj now.

Where is it said his defensive game is atrocious?

 

[JetsFan815]

TBH, Matthews and Pulj are similar in that they bring complete elite two way games. The only reason Matthews is going 1st is because he brings a more elite two-way game than Pulj. Laine is going to go 2nd overall, even though his defensive side is atrocious, because his offensive game is so rare.

Laine's Relative Corsi during the Liiga Reg Season: +5% . Only 33 forwards in the NHL who player > 500 mins had a RelCorsi higher than that.

His closest comparables in the NHL based on a team Corsi of 48.3 and a personal Corsi of 53.3:

Michael Frolik
Mikael Backlund
Taylor Hall
Connor McDavid
Reilly Smith

Bad defensive players indeed

 

[Future]

Um... Laine has two for this year already, and it's barely May.

Taylor Hall, another scoring winger, also won two memorial cups before he was drafted. Look at where Edmonton is still 6 years since he was drafted despite his efforts.

Matthews was 2 week away from being drafted (3rd overall) in the 2015 draft, he's kinda old and that should be taken into consideration

So was Ovechkin. If the players can play, they can play.

This thread has got really insane over the past few hours. The telemarketers have begun to call back pushing their product (Laine)...

 

[Redwingsfan]

THREAD TOPIC: Matthews vs Laine

 

[Legion34]

Some late birthday first overalls of late:

2013 Mackinon
2012: Yakupov
2010: Hall
2009: Tavares
2007: Kane
2004: Ovie

Most ended up ok
Other notable late birthday top picks were BARKOV (2), Reinhart (2), Draisitl(3), Landeskog (2), Kessel etc....

People put way to much stock in to a few months age difference and hot streaks.

Players who steam up the standings at the end are less predictable.
Jake C had a great year on D at 17, now people have cooled the next year. JP was seen as better than laine till the WJC. History matters. Like with PL dubois and Tkachuk. Tkachuk was a higher pick, then PL dubois had a monster run. Now its Tkachuk again.

Players dont actually become better than others in 3 months. There could be all kinds of reasons (injuries, family issues, teenage probs etc). There is no arbitrary reason why at the end of their draft season, one is definitively better than the other, but they flip flop all year.

 

[Legion34]

Can any rational and objective fan address the issue that the vast majority of Laine's production is

1.) Powerplay
2.) one timer when someone feeds him the puck.

and how that will affect his future in a smaller arena/closer checking league? Will he need a setup man like hull/oates? or someone to give him the puck on a platter?

Do any of the fans who watch him see that as an issue?

 

[Patmac40]

Some late birthday first overalls of late:

2013 Mackinon
2012: Yakupov
2010: Hall
2009: Tavares
2007: Kane
2004: Ovie

Most ended up ok
Other notable late birthday top picks were BARKOV (2), Reinhart (2), Draisitl(3), Landeskog (2), Kessel etc....

People put way to much stock in to a few months age difference and hot streaks.

Players who steam up the standings at the end are less predictable.
Jake C had a great year on D at 17, now people have cooled the next year. JP was seen as better than laine till the WJC. History matters. Like with PL dubois and Tkachuk. Tkachuk was a higher pick, then PL dubois had a monster run. Now its Tkachuk again.

Players dont actually become better than others in 3 months. There could be all kinds of reasons (injuries, family issues, teenage probs etc). There is no arbitrary reason why at the end of their draft season, one is definitively better than the other, but they flip flop all year.

I understand the point and I agree but just wanted to point out that MacKinnon and Barkov were actually the two youngest in their draft class.

 

[Legion34]

I understand the point and I agree but just wanted to point out that MacKinnon and Barkov were actually the two youngest in their draft class.

K fair enough, looking at the september birthdays over multiple years I counted the years wrong..... My mistake.

 

[Captain Timo]

I understand the point and I agree but just wanted to point out that MacKinnon and Barkov were actually the two youngest in their draft class.

Contrary, Seth Jones was a very late birthday for his draft year. I'd like to believe that both Tampa/Colorado would at the very least entertain taking Jones over Mackinnon/Drouin, despite him being almost a year older than Mack and a couple months older than Drouin. I think we can agree that age doesn't really matter, it's the number of hockey seasons & offseasons that really count.

 

[Lempo]

Taylor Hall, another scoring winger, also won two memorial cups before he was drafted. Look at where Edmonton is still 6 years since he was drafted despite his efforts.

Mainly my point was to comment on the quoted poster's usage of projected and so thus far imaginary championships to put down Laine who, as said, has two meaningful championships under his belt, both of which he was a big part in getting. A bit silly projection on getting a championship in my mind anyway, because so many different things need to click to actually get one. I mean, us Finns could use a drunken night to argue who of our NHLers really is the best but in the end we would be silenced by the curious sound at the other end of the bar caused by devilishly grinning Esa Tikkanen rapping on the bar desk with his Stanley Cup rings.

And, also, well, they're Edmonton. They seem to be doing something horrible to their draftees. I would so be honking for a Finnish 2-3-4 with Edmonton taking Juolevi otherwise, but I don't want him anywhere near the organization.

 

[Patmac40]

Contrary, Seth Jones was a very late birthday for his draft year. I'd like to believe that both Tampa/Colorado would at the very least entertain taking Jones over Mackinnon/Drouin, despite him being almost a year older than Mack and a couple months older than Drouin. I think we can agree that age doesn't really matter, it's the number of hockey seasons & offseasons that really count.

Absolutely. And it's not as though his "late birthday" has affected his development comparatively to his fellow 2013 draftees.

 

[heretik27]

Can any rational and objective fan address the issue that the vast majority of Laine's production is

1.) Powerplay
2.) one timer when someone feeds him the puck.

and how that will affect his future in a smaller arena/closer checking league? Will he need a setup man like hull/oates? or someone to give him the puck on a platter?

Do any of the fans who watch him see that as an issue?

He's a young guy playing in a men's league. Given any time or space, whether created by himself or a linemate he is able to pick the corner's on a goalie quite well. I suspect this is why you perceive him as a power play or one timer machine. It's really just him having enough time to process his next play imo. He's always going to be dangerous if you give him the space to work to where he can get a shot off, and doesn't need much time to do so. The difference though, is that he can create these opportunities by himself with the puck whether off the rush or in the offensive zone. It's easy to see this big 6'4'' 205 lbs guy and think he's matured, but he's still got many years of experience and some growing to do ahead of him. I wouldn't be too worried about his future in the NHL as some kind of power play specialist, he's got the tools and vision on the ice to make plays happen in all 3 zones.

He'll enter the draft being the better offensive upside prospect than Matthews, but Matthews is well rounded and was likely ready to take a step up against NHL talent half way through this season without losing much of a step. For that reason and position which is also a major need for Toronto, he'll go #1 over Laine.

 

[ottawah]

Those extra year players after the first pick or two often fall because of it. But in the first few picks it does not seem to make a difference.

Look at the ranking vs draft and you can see the bias. 2012 was a good year. Yakapov and Murray ranked 1/2, a year older and went 1/2.

Ceci and Matta a year older, Ranked as the number 3 and 4 d men (NA) actually went 8/9 (for NA d men). Arguably they would go 3/4 today, and the difference between them and the top is not that much.

I've always found in the top pick or two it does not matter, but consistently see the late b days later in the draft.

Really, the NHL has talked on moving the draft age back a year. Move it back 9.5 months to Jan 1, then everyone is the same birth year when drafted, would certainly make it far easier to evaluate talent.

 

[JetsFan815]

Can any rational and objective fan address the issue that the vast majority of Laine's production is

1.) Powerplay
2.) one timer when someone feeds him the puck.

and how that will affect his future in a smaller arena/closer checking league? Will he need a setup man like hull/oates? or someone to give him the puck on a platter?

Do any of the fans who watch him see that as an issue?

Does not concern me at all.

According to the Liiga website he had 9 PPG in the regular season out of his total of 17 and 5 in the playoffs out of 10.

Jesse Pulj had 7 out of his 13 on the PP.

Barkov had 9 of his 21 goals on the PP during his draft year (while playing 7 more games)

Laine had 42 % of his points on the PP. Pulju had 39% and Barkov had 44% of his points on the PP in his draft year. Seems pretty reasonable to me them being all 17-18 yr olds in a men's league

Laine's line has a fantastic 5v5 CF%, ranking 3rd on his team of players who have played more than 15 games. I would be concerned if corsi numbers were bad as that would indicate him primarily dominating on PP and not doing much else but that's not the case with him. This shows me he is a very good player 5 on 5 who consistently pushes the play in the right direction.

 

[Lehkonen4Calder]

Absolutely. And it's not as though his "late birthday" has affected his development comparatively to his fellow 2013 draftees.

Where did anyone said if affect developement? Just that you can look better than what you would if you where 8 month younger at the time of the draft. In the long run it change nothing

 

[TheLeastOfTheBunch]

He'll enter the draft being the better offensive upside prospect than Matthews, but Matthews is well rounded and was likely ready to take a step up against NHL talent half way through this season without losing much of a step. For that reason and position which is also a major need for Toronto, he'll go #1 over Laine.

You can easily say it's Auston who's entering the draft with the better offensive upside, and that he truly is BPA at #1 irregardless of NHL readiness and/or position. I mean, Matthews beat Kane's, Kessel's and Eichel's USDP goals and points totals during similar points in their respective careers, and him being a centre is just cherry on top.

But we really don't know what Hunter's thought process is at the moment. Maybe he's leaning towards Laine for all we know

 

[Atomos2]

You can easily say it's Auston who's entering the draft with the better offensive upside, and that he truly is BPA at #1 irregardless of NHL readiness and/or position. I mean, Matthews beat Kane's, Kessel's and Eichel's USDP goals and points totals during similar points in their respective careers, and him being a centre is just cherry on top.

But we really don't know what Hunter's thought process is at the moment. Maybe he's leaning towards Laine for all we know

Doubt it. Hunter knows Leafs are not likely to get a prospect like Matthews again for the next several years. An elite franchise centre has taken decades to find. You don't just ignore this opportunity.

 

[WillTheThrill]

As a Jets fan I cannot help but read this thread and smile. Come the draft we cannot lose!

And neither can the Leafs. Or the Jackets.

 

[ps241]

Jet fans should be ecstatic. They had no right picking such an amazing player. They'll get a great player in Pulj or Laine

Still can't believe the Jets are picking 2nd..... LMAO Im soooooo excited !!!!! I could give 2 bits which player we get

I'm almost envious of them reading through these threads.

As a Jets fan I agree with and enthusiastically endorse these posts. Still too busy celebrating our ********* luck to debate. We had a chance of drafting 9th but somehow moved up to hang out on either Boardwalk or Park place.

 

[ps241]

And neither can the Leafs. Or the Jackets.

Correct answer!

It is the HFBoards way to manafacture anger while measuring penis sizes and debating who's dad is tougher than who's dad but now and then it's ok to be happy without formalizing the pecking order "gasp".

 

[NarcoPolo]

Does not concern me at all.

According to the Liiga website he had 9 PPG in the regular season out of his total of 17 and 5 in the playoffs out of 10.

Jesse Pulj had 7 out of his 13 on the PP.

Barkov had 9 of his 21 goals on the PP during his draft year (while playing 7 more games)

Laine had 42 % of his points on the PP. Pulju had 39% and Barkov had 44% of his points on the PP in his draft year. Seems pretty reasonable to me them being all 17-18 yr olds in a men's league

Laine's line has a fantastic 5v5 CF%, ranking 3rd on his team of players who have played more than 15 games. I would be concerned if corsi numbers were bad as that would indicate him primarily dominating on PP and not doing much else but that's not the case with him. This shows me he is a very good player 5 on 5 who consistently pushes the play in the right direction.

This is an important piece of info here. I remember posts dating back to when Laine wasn't playing with Sebastion Aho and his corsi stats were not that great, but when he started playing with him they jumped quite a bit. Puljujarvi's were better at that time, not sure if they still were by the time the season ended or not though.

 

[Captain Timo]

Does not concern me at all.

According to the Liiga website he had 9 PPG in the regular season out of his total of 17 and 5 in the playoffs out of 10.

Jesse Pulj had 7 out of his 13 on the PP.

Barkov had 9 of his 21 goals on the PP during his draft year (while playing 7 more games)

Laine had 42 % of his points on the PP. Pulju had 39% and Barkov had 44% of his points on the PP in his draft year. Seems pretty reasonable to me them being all 17-18 yr olds in a men's league

Laine's line has a fantastic 5v5 CF%, ranking 3rd on his team of players who have played more than 15 games. I would be concerned if corsi numbers were bad as that would indicate him primarily dominating on PP and not doing much else but that's not the case with him. This shows me he is a very good player 5 on 5 who consistently pushes the play in the right direction.

This was actually a really, really good post. Putting the powerplay point % of their total points and included Barkov was an eye-opener for me. Didn't realize those numbers were typically so high in the FEL. Thanks.

 

[Legion34]

Does not concern me at all.

According to the Liiga website he had 9 PPG in the regular season out of his total of 17 and 5 in the playoffs out of 10.

Jesse Pulj had 7 out of his 13 on the PP.

Barkov had 9 of his 21 goals on the PP during his draft year (while playing 7 more games)

Laine had 42 % of his points on the PP. Pulju had 39% and Barkov had 44% of his points on the PP in his draft year. Seems pretty reasonable to me them being all 17-18 yr olds in a men's league

Laine's line has a fantastic 5v5 CF%, ranking 3rd on his team of players who have played more than 15 games. I would be concerned if corsi numbers were bad as that would indicate him primarily dominating on PP and not doing much else but that's not the case with him. This shows me he is a very good player 5 on 5 who consistently pushes the play in the right direction.

Thanks to both posters who responded with well thought out and rational posts. I was hoping for an offensive comparison between the 3.

I would add that he scored 9 on pp. 1 3 on 3 and 1 6 on 5
In the reg season. So its from my count, 11/17 not 5 on 5.

In the playoffs he scored 1 6 on 5 goal. Which was a bullet. But what bugged me was that last second goal he had actually given up had his stick upside down to skate off until his team dug it out and fed it to him.

That being said it looks comparable to JP and barkov. Which is less worrisome. Would just scare me to spend a 1st overall on a one shot sniper. Makes me more comfortable if hunter picks him.


He showed much more than a 1 timer compared to his peers at wjc. So hopefully will have that to look forward to.

 

[EscapeGoat]

Dreger interview with Matthews:

In part 1 of his sit down with Hockey Insider Darren Dreger, projected first overall pick Auston Matthews discusses his experience at the WHC, how he feels about the comparisons between himself and Patrik Laine, if he's spoken to Lou Lamiorello, and what it would mean to be drafted by the Maple Leafs.

http://www.tsn.ca/video/nhl/matthews-on-maple-leafs-it-s-the-hockey-mecca-of-the-world~867089